Jock’s DRAFTSTARS Academy: Special Operations Unit
Greetings and welcome to this, the first in an ambitious Draftstars Academy weekly series.
Jock has graciously charged me with the task of exploring the new and exciting frontier that is Draftstars. I will start by honing my skill and cunning by gathering performance data within the safe confines of Jock’s free-play Draftstars Academy. I will develop and sharpen excel battle tools on a weekly basis, tracking performance and tinkering until my Daily Fantasy selection muscles are lithe and responsive.
If I prove combat worthy within the confines of Jock’s free-play environment, I will then bound with proven strategy, cunning and a certain pre-determined degree of confidence into the pay-to-play arena.
The significance of this task is such that I have decided it best be tackled with the most stringent and rigorous of approaches. Yes Community, I have decided to employ the proven Scientific Method as my guide; hypothesising, formulating, gathering, testing, analysing, forming conclusions.
Let us begin.
The Effect of Applying an Analytical System-Based Approach to Performance within the Daily Fantasy Environment
If Daily Fantasy lineups are selected using historic performance based data linked with clearly defined strategic guidelines then it will result in successful gamesmanship as measured by a positive return on investment.
1. Build Drafstars Optimisation Machine – “DOM”– a player score projections tool
Weekly player projections have been formulated using the following four key statistics;
– Long Run Scoring History & St. Deviation (x0.25 Weighting Factor)
– 2017 Season Scoring History and St. Deviation (x0.3 Weighting Factor)
– Last Three Game Scoring History & St. Deviation (Anchor Statistic)
– Scoring History V Opponent (Adjustment Factor)
The “Ceiling” statistic has been calculated taking into account each player’s recent and historic scoring standard deviation trends. It aims to give a feel for what an above average game may deliver.
Of extreme importance is the “$/Pt.” statistic. This is a basic calculation that, based on the forecasted score, gives us a player value rating. It places a dollar value on each point a player is predicted to deliver us – An extremely important element when working within a team Salary Cap!
[table id=37 /]
2. Analyse predictive scores as delivered by DOM to establish a successful forecasting model by gathering weekly comparison data
This forms a key part of the experiment. Using forecasts as supplied by www.fantasyinsider.com.au, DOM performance data will be routinely checked against Fantasy Insider’s forecasting model and adjusted as required.
A challenge. A game within a game. DOM v Fantasy Insider!
I do expect DOM to be soundly beaten initially given that the Fantasy Insiders modelling draws on masses of additional data such as Venue, Home/Away factors, Weather Conditions, however, I am excited by DOM’s humble beginnings.
If you would like to build your own DOM and create your own challenge, Fantasy Insider are offering a wonderful trial where you can access score projections across the entire round.
[table id=42 /]
3. Apply DOM forecasts and key selection strategies to finalise a weekly contest lineup
IMPORTANT NOTE: Given that each week this post will be uploaded PRIOR to final team selections, potential updates will be re-posted following the release of squads.
And now the important task of building a squad based on DOM’s projections.
Week 1 Selection Notes:
Blindly trusting in projection tools is dangerous. Let’s take Lachie Neale as a prime example.
DOM has forecasted a score for Neale of 91.16. As described, an adjustment factor based on average scores verses opponent has come into play here; Neale’s last three scores against Collingwood have been 82(away), 120(home) and 23(away). The 23 Neale scored occurred in Round One at Etihad in 2014. This has, in my opinion, negatively impacted on his “Opponent” average and his projection resulting in an unjust value rating.
I do like the Neale selection and feel he will easily outperform DOM’s forecasted score.
The challenge in using these selections is balancing Value with Point Score while hitting the Salary Cap constraint – THIS IS JUST LIKE SUPERCOACH!
I will now reveal my final LineUp for this Sunday’s game along side a Fantasy Insider team that was generated using their LineUp Crunching Tool (a tool that does the Value v Point score balancing for you).
My Weekly LineUp for Sunday’s JR Draftstars Academy Contest;
**UPDATED 30 Minutes prior to kickoff due to the Sandilands LATE OUT
I will not delve too deep into selection strategy in Week 1, however – I will make one important point which did guide me in my final selection process.
I have settled on a relatively safe team selected with a risk minimisation strategy. If my aim was to finish first then more risks would be taken. Players such as Walters, Hill and Pendlebury may hit their ceiling and reward owners with a very high finishing rank. I am forecasting that these players, for their price, offer too great a risk in terms of consistency of rank in the long term.
Jock’s exclusive Draftstars Academy contest is returning a reward to anyone who finishes ranked within the top 35 places. I am aiming to finish 35th.
Wish me luck my friends – I look forward with great anticipation to the discussion in the comments below. This will indeed be an interesting journey!
Peter J Higginbotham
Fantasy Insider have a two week free trial on the go at the minute, they also have a SuperCoach ‘who should I pick’ tool which may arouse you.. jump on over and give our great supporters a try!