NRL Supercoach Round 12 – 1 Down 2 To Go!
Thankfully round 12 is now behind us and our trade targets have become much easier to identify.
Rookie SuperCoaches may be finding this period a little daunting. Some of us spent weeks planning for round 12 and now find ourselves struggling to field a solid team for rounds 13 and 15. Don’t let this discourage you from giving serious thought to your future trades. Plenty of coaches yo-yo through the ranks during the bye period so you might be pleasantly surprised with your position come round 20. Just make sure you’re giving your team the best chance to remain competitive each week.
I scored 989 points last week which brought my rank to 488th overall. My focus for this week will be Keepers/Guns that have good coverage through the next five rounds. Maintaining my rank could be a struggle as I’m looking at taking a hit later in the bye period.
Hints and tips for the remainder of the bye period
- The Melbourne Storm is the only team other than the Bunnies and Eels that play the final two big bye rounds. Cameron Munster, Billy Slater and Tohu Harris should now be on your trade radar if they’re not in your team already.
- The Dragons easily have the most favourable draw through the bye period (Tigers, Bulldogs, Eels, Knights and Titans). They’ve already had their first bye round and will play every week except round 18. The Warriors also have a good draw but won’t be playing either of the final two big bye rounds.
- The Broncos, Raiders and Warriors are the only teams whose byes fall on rounds 15 and 18. If you have any of these players that aren’t considered Guns then consider trading them out prior to round 15.
- Be wary that the Bulldogs, Storm, Eels and Roosters won’t play round 19. They’re all available for round 18 so you may struggle fielding a full team for both rounds.
- Ideally you’ll want to field a strong seventeen in round 20. Most of your team should consist of players averaging over 60 PPG or PODs with a high scoring potential.
Get Rid Of ‘Em
- Tautau Moga ($305.8k CTW) has no purpose in our teams anymore and couldn’t be more of a hindrance to our overall success. Not only does he have a break even of 66 (22 points above his average) but he isn’t available for either round 15 or 18. To make matters worse he’ll be up against the Roosters, Raiders and Storm in the next four weeks. I’ll be trading him out this week.
- Nick Cotric ($304k CTW) has made his owners $181k but now has a break even of 71. He won’t play rounds 15 or 18 so his benefits are minimal. I’d recommend giving him the flick prior to round 15 but be wary that he could drop in value is he doesn’t score well this weekend. His next two opponents are Manly and Penrith (both away).
- Cody Walker ($371.3k FE/FB) has been the most controversial SuperCoach player in recent weeks. He started the season being one of the best PODs in the game but has lately struggled to fire. So where do we go from here?
The Verdict: About 7% of coaches traded Walker in after his 101 point effort against the Tigers in round 10. He scored 27 and 26 in the following weeks and couldn’t look less interested in being on the field. What do we do with an underperformer with perfect bye coverage?
I’m thinking of holding Walker for the remainder of the bye period but two factors are convincing me this is a bad idea. Firstly, he generally needs attacking stats to score well but the Rabbitohs don’t exactly have a favourable draw. I wouldn’t be surprised if he fails to crack the 50 point barrier prior to round 20. Secondly, he’s set to lose significant value if he fails to perform well. This seems to be a possibility after seeing him in action last weekend. Consider him a trade candidate but not as a priority. Keep in mind he’ll boost your bye round numbers.
- Jordan Rapana ($405.9k CTW) is one of the CTW candidates for your run home side. He has a season average of 75.8 PPG and now has a break even of five. Is it a good time to trade him in this week?
The Verdict: The one and only downside to trading in Rapana this week is his bye coverage. He isn’t available for either round 15 or 18 but he’ll boost the quality of your seventeen for the other weeks. Head to head players should take advantage of his BE while overall coaches need to decide if it’s worth holding off until round 19. There’s no harm waiting until after the bye period is over either. The Raiders will play the Broncos, Cowboys, Dragons and Storm in rounds 16 through 20 so there’s a possibility he’ll come with a low break even in round 21.
- Paul Vaughan ($414.8k 2RF/FRF) / Jack De Belin ($406.1k 2RF/FRF) are two of the big hitters among the forwards and now have the added bonus of having just one bye round remaining. Is it worth trading them in despite not being available for round 18?
The Verdict: The short answer is yes but Vaughan and De Belin have differing pros and cons.
Vaughan’s appeal is his low break even of 24 along with his attacking involvement. He seems to charge through the defensive line more times than most of your typical forwards and his SuperCoach scores are reflecting that. His 68.6 PPG season average should give us reason to consider him as a keeper; so why are many of us avoiding him? Well, his base output is respectable but we can’t help worrying about his recent performances. If you took out his 112 point game against the Sharks two weeks ago, he’s averaging just 52 PPG which doesn’t cut it as a keeper. There’s nothing wrong with his PPM figure but we need to remember he only plays around 45 to 50 MPG. Take him or leave him. Either option could pay off.
De Belin on the other hand is a base stats beast and he’s always looking to offload the ball. It’s as if he has our SuperCoach teams at heart. He’s 8k cheaper than Vaughan but comes with a much higher break even (73). I’d feel more comfortable owning De Belin over Vaughan but the Dragons’ favourable run over the next five weeks could see Vaughan jag a handful of attacking stats. He’s an attractive buy but there’s no rush to trade him in.
James Graham has been such a letdown lately, especially to those who brought him in for round 12 coverage. It’s hard to convince someone that he isn’t worth selling but I wouldn’t be losing patience with him just yet. Keep in mind that he’ll play this weekend and round 18 so he still has a purpose to serve through the bye period. Non-owners should ignore him completely for now.
Andrew Fifita’s money could be put to better use despite being one of the better FRFs in the game. There’s obviously nothing wrong with holding on to him; he’s considered a keeper and will be in many coach’s teams through the closing rounds. Just keep in mind that he won’t play this weekend or round 18 and will possibly back up from Origin in rounds 16 and 19. I guess it all comes down to risk/reward. Don’t assume you must hold him through the bye period just because he’s considered a keeper.
Top 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and named this week)
Dylan Edwards ($143.6 FB/CTW): -54
Kyle Feldt ($241.3k CTW): -29
Brock Lamb ($260.6k FE/HFB): -18
Blake Ferguson ($355.7k -6): -6
Malakai Watene-Zelezniak ($157.2k CTW): -5
Bottom 5 Break Evens
(Must have played 2 games and named this week)
Dylan Walker ($450.4k CTW/FE): 133
Johnathan Thurston ($448.9k HFB Extended bench): 121
Nathan Brown ($391.3k FRF/2RF): 120
Matt Gillett ($405.6k 2RF): 119
Josh Addo-Carr ($334.9k CTW): 118
Team List Tuesday
State of Origin players are named to play at this stage
Dylan Edwards (cheapie playing his third game) named at fullback
Josh Mansour returns from long-term injury
Matt Moylan shifts to the halves
James Graham named
Johnathan Thurston named on the extended bench
Nathan Brown named
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad named on the extended bench
Gareth Widdop named on the extended bench
Tuimoala Lolohea named in the Tigers’ halves
Jesse Bromwich returns from suspension
Josh Mansour to make a solid comeback with a 60+ game
Tim Lafai to average 65+ over the next five weeks (rounds 13 to 17)
Shaun Johnson to back up his epic performance last week with a 70+ game