Overall players listen up; it’s time to let bye coverage
availability influence your trades.
Head to head players can almost ignore the big bye rounds but those of us going for Overall glory need to do a numbers check. We also need to keep round 12 in the back of our minds when doing our trades each week.
I’m not suggesting we tear out teams apart to field 17 players in each of the three big bye rounds; that would be foolish. We just need to ensure our teams are fully prepared to face the brutal onslaught we call the bye period. As an example, Mother SuperCoach has provided a great test for Corey Norman owners. What do you do with a player that isn’t a concrete Gun, has perfect bye coverage but a high break even? It’s an extremely controversial topic that will give the most experienced coaches a headache.
The main thing to remember is to do what YOU think is best for YOUR team. Trading Norman out may be a favourable move for one team but it could be a wasted trade for another. Keep in mind that you’ll be able to use four trades for each of the three big bye rounds too. 1100 was considered a solid week for round six with the popular captain choices producing average scores. I have to admit my captain choices are letting me down (JT being my round 6 captain) but I still managed to score 1152 for the week. It’s a good feeling to be back in the top 1000 (352 nd overall).
Get Rid of ‘Em
Dean Whare ($254k, BE 63) and Brian Kelly ($248.3k, BE 51) are both perfect trade options this week. Their break evens are now above their averages and they’re both playing good defensive teams this weekend. It’s time to move them on and find a more suitable replacement for your team.
Johnathan Thurston ($448.9k) is expecting to miss just two weeks of footy due to his calf injury which is a nice relief for JT owners. It all depends on the recovery process but it’s safe to say he won’t be back until round nine at the very earliest. This means he’ll play seven of the next twelve weeks as best case scenario.
- The Verdict: You’d be more inclined to trade Thurston out if you’re a head to head player but the circumstances are a little different if you’re concentrating on your overall rank. There’s no harm in holding JT for the time being, he won’t be changing in price while he isn’t playing. The negatives with holding revolve around the typical randomness of the expected recovery time followed by the intensity of Origin. He’s no guarantee to return after two weeks, nor should we expect JT to return at 100%. We can ignore his 111 break even because it’s an irrelevant stat for keepers, although you can’t be blamed for wanting to spend his $448k elsewhere and trading him back in once the bye period is over. Neither holding nor selling should be considered a poor move. Each team is unique and will be affected differently by Thurston’s absence. My best advice is to do what’s best for your team.
Corey Norman ($373.3k) is now officially a headache and I can’t help but feel for his owners. This is a guy who started the season scoring back to back centuries with the added bonus of being available for all three big bye rounds. It was the dream scenario until he suffered a minor injury and produced a 35 point average in the following three weeks. Norman lost $51k in value last week and now has a break even of 113.
- The Verdict: It’s not easy letting go of a player with perfect bye coverage just five weeks before round 12. It’s definitely a controversial move considering his coverage was an influential factor for starting the season with him. I’m going to keep this simple. Don’t let his 15 point game last week convince you to give him the boot. His season average is an impressive 76 PPG if you took that one off performance out of the equation. You simply can’t lose faith in a player of Norman’s calibre and you’ll regret the decision when you’re trying to scrape together bye round numbers. He’s a HOLD.
Kieran Foran ($294.9k) has averaged 77 PPG from his first two appearances and will come into round seven with a break even of -17. A number of coaches are talking about trading him in this week but are they simply setting themselves up for disappointment?
- The Verdict: There’s absolutely nothing wrong with trading in Foran this week. He isn’t exactly an expensive option and he’s going to add to your round 12 numbers. My main concern with Foran is the likelihood of scoring attacking stats to boost his weekly scores to a respectable level. The Warriors have a nightmare run coming into the bye period where they’ll be facing a run of premiership contenders. Their next six opponents are as follows: Raiders, Storm, Roosters, Panthers, Dragons and Broncos. These are six of the eight favourites to win the 2017 premiership and are all considered good defensive sides on theirday. I won’t be taking the punt on Foran but good luck to those that are willing to take the risk. He’s not a bad BUY but consider other options.
Jayden Brailey ($224.8k) owners can rejoice after hearing the news that Segeyaro will miss the following six to eight weeks through injury. Brailey has been on the trade radar for the past couple of weeks but is now an easy hold due to his potential gain in value and availability for the first two big bye rounds. Some of us will be leaving Brailey out of our seventeen but there’s no harm in pushing him to the side until he’s required in round 12. His price can’t really drop much further while playing big minutes. He’s a HOLD
Coen Hess ($400.2k) has been an absolute gem for those of us who took the gamble. He now has a break even of 75 due to his 32 point/50 minute game where he came off with a concussion. He’s made his owners over $150k but his value isn’t expected to rise over the coming weeks. The big concern is whether he can continue to produce the numerous attacking stats he seems to snag each week.
There’s no rush to get Hess out of your team this week. Many coaches are concerned with his BE but we need to remember his injury affected game is the reason for his break even to climb. As a Hess owner I’m going to hold until after he plays his round 15 game (assuming he isn’t a surprise pick for Origin). The Cowboys will be looking at Hess for some go-forward so I can’t see his base output being a disappointment. Let’s keep in mind that he’ll lose $20k as the worst case scenario; but he’ll likely make it back the following week.
Best 5 Break Evens (Must have played at least two games)
Dylan Edwards ($143.6k): -57
Matt Frawley ($122.6k): -50
Kalyn Ponga ($189.3k): -48
Corey Harawira-Naera ($215.2k): -31
Nick Cotric ($252.1k): -30
Worst 5 Break Evens (Must have played at least two games)
Bryce Cartwright ($497.2k): 175
Jackson Hastings ($350.7k): 142
Taane Milne ($325.7k): 136
Ben Hunt ($348.2k): 116
Clint Gutherson ($367.3k): 116
Team List Tuesday
Brad Abbey out injured/ Matt Frawley drops out of the seventeen
David Klemmer is out injured
Latrell Mitchell has been dropped
Angus Crichton starts in the second row
Kodi Nikorima is named as Ben Hunt’s replacement
Nathan Peats has returned from injury
Will Chambers is out suspended
Cameron Munster and Jesse Bromwich are named on the extended bench
Kalyn Ponga named at fullback / Coen Hess is starting / Ben Hampton replaces Thurston
Tyrone Peachey is back
Corey Harawira-Naera benched / Bryce Cartwright named on extended bench
Bevan French is out injured / Nathan Brown starts at lock / Clint Gutherson named at fullback
Anthony Milford will once again crack 100 points this weekend
Corey Norman will restore faith in his owners with a 60+
Gideon Gela-Mosby will fail to crack 50 points