Round 5 has rewarded all of us with a gift; a handful of cheapies with low break evens.
It’s time to swap out our under-performers and bring in the players that’ll be more beneficial to our long term success. Some of you first timers may be a bit disheartened that you won’t be adding a proven gun to your team; don’t let that discourage you!
These cheapies will generate the cash you require to be able to fill your run home team with gun performers. If you are unable to field 17 guns in the closing stages of the season, expect your overall rank to drop and your head to heads to fall by the wayside.
Gideon Gala-Mosby, Corey Hawira-Naera and Dale Copley are the three appealing options on offer. All three will play their third game which means they’ll receive their first rise in value. Their break evens are so low that they’ll generate a decent amount of value once they step on the field. Here’s the basic scenario for all three:
- Gideon Gala-Mosby should keep his positon on the wing until the return of Antonio Winterstein (due back round 8). He’ll make around $40k once he takes the field this weekend and he’ll be playing at home against one of the weaker sides in the NRL – West Tigers. He gets more involved than most of the wingers out there so he’s less likely to produce a woeful score.
- Corey Hawira-Naera has the lowest break even of the week (-95) and will generate a generous amount of value this weekend. He has been named in the starting side once again so he’s close to a ‘must have’ in my books. Don’t bother thinking about it, just do it.
- Dale Copley recently signed with the Titans and has been playing well in the centres. He’s the only one of the three that isn’t priced at bottom dollar but he’s still a good pick up nonetheless. His two 70+ games has resulted in a break even on -66 which means he’ll make a minimum of around $35k. Copley is currently priced at $204.4k so he isn’t exactly a high risk option. Ideally you’ll be trading him out for a keeper or bye friendly player prior to round 12.
I finished round five with a score of 1123 which saw me drop a couple of hundred spots to 1024th. Unfortunately I wasn’t one of the lucky few to captain Johnson. I decided to take a punt on JT at home to the struggling Bunnies. This is the second week running my captain choice has failed so there are no prizes for guessing which area I’ll be focusing on this week.
Get Rid of ‘Em
Most coaches will be trading out cheapies that have either gained most of their value or don’t have much left to generate.
There may be a handful of guns with high break evens but we should learn to ignore their fluctuating value.
There are a few dead weights we can think about trading out to make room for the cheapies available. Frank Winterstein, Charlie Gubb and Felise Kaufusi can all be considered trade options as they don’t have much more to offer when it comes to cash generation.Luke Yates and Sam Stone are also possibilities but they’re still maintaining a break even below 15.
A lot of us will be trading in Mosby this week but the big question is who he’ll be replacing in your team. Most of the cheapie CTWs still maintain a low break even and they’re all capable of scoring large on their day. I think Moses Suli is one of the better options to trade out. He may have a BE of 15 but he’s averaging just 33 PPG outside of his 103 effort in round one. He’s also playing away to the Cowboys this week which is no easy feat in Townsville.
I would be holding off a few weeks before trading out Nick Cotric or Dean Whare as they both have very low break evens and are playing against weak opponents this weekend. I’m also keeping the faith with Tatau Moga who hasn’t been given a fair chance to produce attacking stats on a regular basis. The Broncos have played against one bottom eight candidate and that was in terrible conditions.
- Trent Merrin ($421.4k) has been a big disappointment to those who started the season with him. He’s currently averaging 24 PPG less than his 2016 average and has lost $71k in value as a result.
*The Verdict: You can’t be blamed for losing patience with the Panthers’ lock. You’ve paid almost $500k for a bloke who’s averaging 50 PPG. Well, here’s how I see it. Those that don’t own Merrin should ignore him completely for now. Merrin owners have already lost $71k and are set to lose around $20k if they choose to hold him another week. Selling Merrin is an extremely controversial move but let’s be honest here; he isn’t the player of 2016 we all went ballistic for. There’s no harm in holding him and giving him a chance to make his value back but I’m sure you can find a higher averaging player for a cheaper price tag. Go with your gut.
- Jayden Brailey ($220.9k) has made his owners $98k but his reduced minutes and 27 point game last weekend has brought him on to our trade radars.
*The Verdict: This is one of the more difficult decisions of round six. There are plenty of valid reasons to trade Brailey out of our sides including the cheap hooker alternative in Damien Cook. The other big attraction is the possible upgrade option after downgrading another player to a newly available cheapie. The only negatives to showing him the door this week are his low break even (19) and his good bye coverage, but he’ll need to be a starter if we’re keeping him for the latter. I think the best advice I can give is that there’s no rush to sell Brailey at this stage.
- Semi Radradra ($393.5k) is a definite trade option this week despite producing a massive 156 points in round two. He dropped in value by $60k last week and is set to lose another $40k if he scores his predicted 51 points.
*The Verdict: Semi’s stats look very deceiving at first glance. Some of us may scroll past his name and assume he’s travelling quite well with a 56 point average. It’s understandable that owners are clinging to hope after benefitting from his monster score in round two.
There are two factors I’d be looking at if I were a Semi owner. The Eels have a tough draw coming into round 12 so it’s likely his average will be underwhelming between now and then. Secondly, he’s scoring just 31 PPG if you took the 156 point effort out of the equation. The flip side is his perfect bye coverage and possibility to gain most of his value back but you may have to cop a run of poor form to gain these benefits. I’d recommend selling but he’s not a ‘must sell’ by any means.
- Coen Hess ($374.6k) was producing a 74 point average before suffering a concussion 50 minutes into last weekend’s game. His owners have made $130k in profit but a handful of coaches seem to think this is the week to say goodbye.
*The Verdict: There’s no reason to show Hess the door prematurely. He’s almost certain to beat his BE of 25 this weekend and you’d have to think an attacking stat or two is on the cards considering he’s up against the Tigers. I wouldn’t be trading him out any time soon, regardless whether he returns to the bench. The Cowboys are playing a handful of weak opponents in the coming weeks so there’s still a bit of cash to be made. He’s a HOLD
- Damien Cook ($247.2k) has replaced Robbie Farah as the Rabbitohs’ starting hooker. He played his first 80 minute game last weekend where he scored 63 points.
*The Verdict: Damien Cook may be on more coach’s radars than you think. He now has a break even of 9 and won’t cost you much at $247.2k. To top it off he’s available for all three big bye rounds and should be a solid back up through that period. The only issue with bring Cook into your team this week is missing out on one of the solid cheapies on offer. He’s a BUY
- Paul Vaughan ($448.3k) averages 72 points per game and has made $107k in the past three rounds. Is it crazy trading out a player who’s averaging 70 plus?
*The Verdict: The Paul Vaughan scenario is similar to the Ryan James conundrum of 2016. The big question is whether he can continue his run of attacking stats. It’s extremely rare for a FRF to score tries on a regular basis but James somehow accomplished that feat. Vaughan scored just 48 points without attacking stats which indicates that the $448k could be better spent on a more consistent option. There’s obviously no harm in holding him a bit longer but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t contemplating a Vaughan to Gallen trade in the coming weeks. He has a break even of 62 this week so he may lose $5k to $10k at worst case scenario. He’s a HOLD.
- Clint Gutherson ($418.7k) is one of the surprise packages of 2017. Owners have been lucky enough to earn 67 PPG from his services while benefitting from his DPP CTW/FE status. He’ll boost all three of your big bye numbers and comes with the added bonus of having the goal kicking duties at Parra. Seriously, how many positive attributes can one player have? Surprisingly, a number of Gutherson owners have decided to jump ship now his break even has hit 102. Let’s be honest. This is the wrong move. Now isn’t the time to be trading out high averaging, bye friendly players. You can’t be scared off by his high break even or 36 point effort last weekend. Some coaches will be taking this opportunity to bring Gutherson into their sides in the coming weeks, but owners shouldn’t be thinking of showing him the door just yet.
Best 5 Break Evens (Must have played at least two games)
Corey Hawira-Naera ($122.6k): -95
Kalyn Ponga ($122.6k): -78
Gideon Gela-Mosby ($122.6k): -77
Dale Copley ($204.4k): -66
Curtis Sironen ($309.5k): -19
Worst 5 Break Evens (Must have played at least two games)
Bryce Cartwright ($497.2k): 163
Jackson Hastings ($350.7k): 134
Semi Radradra ($393.5k): 122
Brett Morris ($335.9k): 119
Cameron Smith ($487.4k): 109
Team List Tuesday
Moylan/Blake/Hiku all dropped for disciplinary reasons
Tyrone Peachey out with a fractured rib (expecting to miss around 6 weeks)
Corey Hawira-Naera named in the starting side
Josh Dugan out injured (Nightingale taking his place)
Kalyn Ponga named on the bench
Bodene Thompson named despite getting injured last week
Coen Hess named on the bench
Jake Granville is out with a broken leg (expected to miss 6 weeks)
Corey Hawira-Naera will break 60 points to generate a minimum of $80k
Gideon Gela-Mosby will once again break 65 points to generate a minimum of $70k
Coen Hess to break 60 points from the bench