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LekDog’s Lockout Day Adjustments

Published by Lekdog on

Last Minute Changes

Today we’re going to talk through last minute changes to our squads and why (probably) they are a bad idea.

Specifically the last minute changes that we haven’t really researched, the changes that are more of a gut feel than an educated decision, the changes that will probably land us in a world of hurt.

Prior to First Lockout

Before we get into last minute changes I’m going to highlight some considered and educated changes I made to my side between my team reveal and lockout.

Aside from the usual rookie changes, I turned Jake Lloyd, Teia Miles and Shaun ‘Bloody’ Higgins into Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Witts and Adam Treloar.

The theory behind this is that group a) Lloyd/Miles/Higgins would feasibly score 880/600/900=2380 across the first ten rounds whereas group b) Marchbank/Witts/Treloar would score 800/750/1100=2650 across the first ten rounds.

Essentially I just moved into a more Guns and Rookies approach to ensure maximum point scoring and cash production as apposed to risking a breakout contender in Lloyd and an injury risk in Higgins. Pretty simple stuff, but this is what I would call an educated decision that ultimately strengthened my midfield and mitigated some midpriced risks.

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Grabbing Butler’s Score

Like many I had Butler on the bench with the E on him, as he was named on a forward flank I didn’t expect him to produce many points. Jarrod Pickett who I had selected on field was named on the wing and seemed the better option…how wrong I was. Butler scored 96 Supercoach points whilst Pickett scored a miserable 28.

As I wanted to grab Butler’s score but also didn’t want to trade in a 0, I traded Otten out of my defence (and through swingsets) brought in Preuss and slotted Strnadica in my forward line. Effectively by losing my short-term RUC/FWD swingset I’ve backed in Witts/Preuss to outscore Houston/Eddy…a fairly safe bet in my opinion.

If you are considering trading in a 0 to grab Butler’s score I would highly recommend that you don’t. The 30-40 points you gain this week is not worth sacrificing cash generation, it just isn’t. You can talk yourself into Darcy Cameron but I see no realistic outcome where he plays in the near future.

My Major Change

Now, aside from moving my rookies around with swingsets there is only one change I have made to my side. I have traded Scott Pendlebury down to Gary Ablett.

That’s right, I’ve brought in God himself.

The rumors surrounding Pendlebury’s Achilles started me down this path, and whilst I have a very reliable source that says he’s fit and firing once I went down the rabbit hole there was no turning back.

Basically I was looking to downgrade Pendles to another $600K player. My options were Tom Mitchell, Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps, Gary Ablett…wait how is this even a discussion?

Yes Ablett still has queries over his body and yes Ablett has the early bye…but he’s Gary Ablett!

According to Old Ocker’s spreadsheet he has averaged 126.6 points per game between rounds 1 and 8 across the last six years. Now admittedly the last two years have been significantly less than that due to injury but even in 2016 Ablett went 6 rounds before dipping below a score of 100.

This selection started as a gut feeling but evolved into a fleshed out and well-informed decision. Ablett is only in 7.5% of teams and it’s Gary Ablett. I’m backing him and hoping the Supercoach Gods don’t smite me down.

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What Not To Do

The last thing you want to be doing today is changing your structures, you have them in place for a reason.

If like me you made your decisions during the last week and researched them well, great! But if you are starting to get nervous because it’s the last few hours before Friday Night Footy and you want to make changes for changes sake, don’t.

If a player isn’t in your team right now it’s for a reason, you don’t rate him as much as the players you have selected. That’s fine, close your browser, delete the Supercoach App and walk away.

You’ve done the hard work and you’re team is already at it’s best. Any more alterations will just risk undoing your whole preseason.

Breathe community; we are going to have a massive year.

See you in the comments and on Twitter @Lekblog…love Lekdog.


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Ken

Kayne turner or jy simpkin??

INPieman

Simpkin. First round pick & they will want to develop him ASAP. Don't rate Turners JS

Luskin Star

Paul Roos was very bullish about Simpkin the other night.

Max

Pendlebury or Treloar???

INPieman

Supercoach scoring rewards players with elite disposal. Nobody uses it better than Pendles. Rarely misses a target. And hence why he has scored like a monolithic beast for the best part of a decade. The concern is the Achilles. If he plays tonight he's in my team. But there are strong rumours he will be withdrawn pregame

Schooner

Supercoach also rewards goals, which is exactly what Treloar will bring this year

INPieman

Sure to kick a few. Schooner I've got a date with you after work

hedski

Beat ya to it Pie, knocked off at lunchtime and downed half a dozen already.
I'll be legless by the first bounce tonight.

INPieman

Solid afternoon's work right there Hedski. Make sure your team is sorted before your completely obliterated. I like the 12 Schooner strategy personally. If I have 6 that makes me overconfident & I suffer trade regret. However after 12 I'm incapable doing anything stupid based in seriously impaired vision

Mich

Pendles is king but I think Treloar will overtake him this year barring injury

rosy

I think we'll look back at 2017 and say that was the year that Treloar became an absolute lock. I have him as a top three Brownlow finisher and a player who will average 30+ disposals and kick 20+ goals. And I hate Collingwood.

Carl

Both 🙂

Rufhead&SheSwallows

What are the community's thoughts on the Bont?
I'm not sold on him but I'm stuck for choice now as money is tight and has to upgrade rookies elsewhere, such as Guthrie and Miles.
If it helps I already have Titch.
Cheerw

tommy

absolute jet mate, lock him in, and throw away the key

Kev

Cripps last night a good example of what can happen to a player with an interrupted preseason.

Valens_FC

I think he has a great chance of finishing top 8 this season… he's got that untaggable thing about him, similar to GAJ and Danger. But he also has a round 11 bye, which makes him a great upgrade target imo.

rosy

The Bont isn't just a pill gathering beast. He can impacts games in a major way. High efficiency by hand and foot, tall enough to take the contested marks, floats FWD to kick/setup goals. I'd rather have 20 Bont disposals than 30 Priddis disposals, let's put it that way. Lock.

Sdd

Grundy or martin??

Bells E Bubb

Martin. There's no way Cox play as a FT forward, he's useless there after a third of the game. He'll play a third in the ruck fo sho.

Col

Ahhh it's true. What do I do with Grundy now? Will wait one more week to see if it continues

OldOcker

Good stuff Lek,
BUTT I can't read this article because I closed my browser before reading it.

Steeeve

So should I go Cameron out, Preuss in?

MEMES

Cameron is only out this week because he has an infected finger. Should be in next week. Preuss will also have competition from Daw if he doesn't go well.

Bells E Bubb

This week was Cameron's big chance. He'll be behind Naismath now so if N plays well it's the neafl for cameron for a good stretch.
Totally depends if you need the DPP imo.

Higgs

I would. One is playing, one isn't. With Tippett and Sinclair I can't see Cameron getting much games (not that Preuss is much more secure)

hedski

Tippet and Sinclair are both injury prone (maybe, no research went into this comment)

Kev

Swans should have no trouble against Port. Hard to see Horse changing a winning team if he doesn't need to

TheGreatBozza

I've been tossing up between Shaw/Adams/Mills all pre season!! Which two should I go? Going mills will allow me an extra FWD or safer rookie picks

Higgs

Adams 100%. He'll be a top 3 defender. Worry about his injury if he gets one.

Flubber

I'm going Howe > Adams

rosy

Heater is a lot like GAJ in that everyone is waiting for him to drop off and justify why they didn't pay for him in the beginning. Fact is, he hasn't dropped off yet and until he does, he's still a lock. Scored over 120 eight times last year including a massive 203. Just go to footywire.com and look at his SC record. It's amazing.

Tommy

Thoughts on JJK?

Mystic Mac

Lock him in and throw the key away.

Higgs

Should be a top 6 FWD. Supercoach loves contested marks and goals which he lives off

Dan

Any thoughts on Bowes?

Higgs

Locked for me

INPieman

Based on what I've seen he's a chance to outperform his price. Pass

Bells E Bubb

Should see plenty of games. Hasn't scored at all well so far. For an extra 30 you could go Taranto.

Higgs

Any chance Preuss is a better cow that Eddy, or Parfitt?

INPieman

Every chance if he keeps playing. But that's a big if

Wood

If you had to start one of these who's the go ??

B Eddy
J Simpkin
D Houston

Col

I am backing Simpkin

Valens_FC

I think Houston likely to play further up the ground and get more opportunity than the other two. Eddy playing up forward away to the Swans is a tough ask in your first senior AFL game.

Hugh

Do i start with Barrett or SPP ?

INPieman

That's a good question. SPP won't be throwing the Swans big bodied mids around like rag dolls. I'd perhaps role the dice on Barett this week

D4N

a mature age SPP will thrive under the contested game the swans will play.
Wouldn't trust many lions to step up this week against a suns outfit on a mission, especially not a player like barrett

Rivo

EVW not playing? If so, do I trade him out, move Hibberd from mid bench to D6, trade in Mountford to mid bench or leave and run with a Stewart as D6?

Dnoyes

I'd move Hibberd to defence for EVW. I'm not sure if Mountford is the best replacement though.

Carl

Agree can't see Mountford playing many games with Cunninngton to come back. As much as I'd like another cheapie near his price

Beezneez

Have the same dilemma with Otten as well as EVW. Will have to wait till teams drop but I was toying with the idea of trading Roughead to Taranto (have 3 premos and Steele) and Otten/EVW to Z. Jones which would also involve trading JOM to Swallow to make up the cash shortfall. I can also move Hibberd to defence but would prefer his DPP in the mids. Berry could be back soon which would alleviate this. Was also thinking to hold off to evaluate next week and, after reading Lekdog's notes, will wait. Hopefully, one or both are named although with Ottens I don't like having 3 Crows in my def. I also had Butler as an emergency and Pickett on the field – will have to leave anyway as Pickett is my F6.

Rivo

Thanks Beez. I will certainly hold until teams finalized. I also have Ottens on the bench so like many have a nervous wait.

Valens_FC

Someone will make way for Cunnington next week and it may be Mountford. The thing I like about him though is that he laid 7 tackles in his first JLT game. With the long-term injury to Jacobs, maybe they like him as the run with / defensive mid and it won't be him who is dropped for Cunnington.

Beezneez

PS. J Smith from Melbourne may be an option if he's named in the starting lineup.

Rivo

Yes thanks – just noticed that too.

Luxy

Anyone have any thoughts on Tom Phillips..or should bat down to WHE?

INPieman

Tom Phillips is the classic preseason trap. If Pendles Treloar Adams & Sidebum run out there tonight pick WHE

nankilands

houston or smipkin. eddy might kick 6 and get 100 though

hedski

Simpkin

Carl

He'll do that at some stage this year but not in the wet against the Swannies

Dukes

Gonna be a wet one. Eddy wont be kicking 6 this week

Tom

Roughead or Steele

Mick

Both

Thommo88

The Big Question alot of people are thinking with spencer not playing do we find space for Gawn?

Over the likes of grundy or similar priced player?

Patch

Beautiful, Lek. Soothing. Calming. Just what we needed.

Although you've left me floundering on the Higgins train and I'm not sure if I would be able to forgive you…. if I hadn't also ditched #Nankilands and brough Gawn back in. So I guess we're even

INPieman

Nankilands is half way to a ripping start

hedski

I'm hoping Gawndiballsnanked is even better.

Ben

Any spare spots in competitive leagues?

Browny

JJK or Lynch?

Ben

JJK. WCE will be kicking alot of goals….

Patrick

Adams and Tom Lynch or Howe and Riewoldt??

Footy

Flip a coin really but I'd maybe lean to 1st as Howe could swing forward?

hedski

2

Finnius

I would go 2 aswell

Freaking out

Is there any other "safer" rookie defender bar Hibberd, Stewart, Smith and Hampton? Worried about Otten.

Flubber

Otten will play don't you worry

bUCKET__

Otten's JS just got a little better with another injury to Cheney. Only Lever to take his spot now and looks like he's being eased back into it.

Captain Risky

Apparently Cheney has had a setback with his hammy, so you'd think that helps Ottens case a bit.

rosy

I wouldn't waste energy worrying about Otten. Will play.

Carl

Otten will play. Smith from Melbourne is another option

sddd

Who has better job security Mountford or Simpkin??
Feel like it is whoever plays better

Flubber

Simpkin. He's the #1 draft pick, they'll want to blood him

Butler(C)

which 2 from Barrett, Parfitt and Mountford?

Flubber

Barrett, Parfitt 🙂

Ben

Almost set on my team…. any feedback would be awesome guys (not too sure on the rookie selections) — Premo keepers in bold

Def: ADAMS, LAIRD, JOHANNISEN, Marchbank, Hampton, Hibbert (Otten, Joyce)
Mids: DANGER, TRELOAR, BONT, FYFE, TITCH, SPPowell, Barrett, Mountford (Pickett, Parfitt, Atley)
Ruck: GAWN, SANDILANDS (Preuss)
Fwd: NRIEWOLDT, JJK, DAHL, FRANKLIN, Steele, Hannan (Butler, Eddy)

Ben

Also, would love a competitive league if anyone has a spare spot

Flubber

Not too sure on your Johannisen pick, haven't heard about him all preseason but maybe he'll have another big year! Just remmeber that Bob Murphy is back and may affect his scores.

Like the rest 🙂

Ben

He's not a popular pick, but I like him and he's a gun. Happy for JJ to slip under the radar……
Any spare league spots?

Winner64

136388 – 3 spots left

SC King

Awesome team Ben, I just copied it (hope you don't mind)
Who is your captain and vice this week?
Also would it be okay if you popped in here every Thursday, just to let me know your trades, captain and emergencies. Thanks mate.

Bruiser again

LOL

Carl

How do you pick Hannan with no JLT form? I thought he didn't play am I wrong?

hedski

I picked SPS cos Wombats said so.

min0008

which one of Franklin, JJK or Lynch?

Flubber

Franklin

Finnius

JJK

ghengis

Lynch is going to finish as no 2 fwd this year behind roo

JEL

Looking to swap EVW to J Smith.

Anyone think this is a bad move?

Flubber

Nope that's a good move!

INPieman

EVW won't survive the cut. Mark that in the book. Smith all the way

Pauly Walnuts

I have Hibberd, Stewart, Otten ,not sure if Smith JS is as good as them? does anyone think the same ? Also like most teams I have Hampton who's been named on an extended bench ?

JEL

I've already got Hampton, Otten, Hibberd & Stewart, so going with the thought that if Hibberd is in, EVW will cool this heels for a few weeks at least.
Good to get confirmation that Smith is a good swap. Thanks Guys.

Claxy

J smith will make way for Hibberd in a week or two

mac

any competitive leagues with spare spots? finished in top 3% last year

Ben

Im keen for 1 mac…. want to create a new one for anyone in here?

Neverweaken

Houston or Eddy as a cash cow on the bench

Ben

Heres a new league code…. anyone feel free to join up!!
101058

Steeeve

So I have Cameron at R3.

VC is on Pendles, C on Danger.

Thinking I will see how Pendles goes and if he gets a captain-worthy score I'll use Cameron to loophole it.

If Pendles doesn't hit the mark, I'll swap Cameron to Preuss (who's actually playing) and leave the C on Danger, since I don't need to loophole anymore.

Anyone else considering something similar?

Smote

In Pendles we trust…..good call Steeeve….wish i'd done the same.

Finnius123

Steele + Roughhead or JJK + Florent? Already have Fyfe, Sandy & Beams so want to minimise my risk profile – but these guys are so tempting as a pair on pure scoring ability. If either of them prove to be spuds then I am screwed. What do you reckon?

Marauderr

Is Jack Gunston worth having in my team? I really like him as a POD

fionaamudala

Taranto or Will Hoskin-Elliott? I can't make up mymind 🙁

Wal

WHE

fionaamudala

and ur reason/s? I'm definitely leaning that way and have a few hours to make my final change

Bells E Bubb

WHE hasn't scored well in his career as yet, Why is that going to change now? (Haven't even considered – genuine Q)

Kevdog

Jake Lloyd or Zach Tuohy ?

Finnius

Lloyd out of the two

hedski

Been on the leprechaun all preseason but relented, think I'll regret it.

Harrold

HOWE or ADAMS? TARRANTO or FLORENT/BOWES? REIWOLDT or JJK? Just need to nail down these last fe spots.

Finnius

Howe, Taranto and Riewoldt, that's what I've gone with anyway

NorthMelb

I'm not to sure on smiths or ottens js. Just wondering if going berry would be a bad idea to get instead and loophole till he plays. Keeping in mind I have no other loophole options

BrownlowBoy

Yes I agree regarding Otten and Smith JS, very shaky.

Beezneez

AFL website says Berry only a week away – not sure if that's right but gives food for thought.

Carl

I've got both of those boys on my bench. Otten's JS is fine as Bluey Cheney just re did his hammy

Rick Grimes

Lloyd, Reiwoldt, WHE

Or

Adams, JJK, Simpkin

Finnius

A

Joel

B. JJK has Mitchell feeding him this year. Only concess is Adams ability at getting injured

Ben

Guys whos the top "Must-have" rookies to have this year? Just got back from holidays and trying to finalise my team. Also apparently the SC site is giving misleading info on whos playing….. cheers

Carl

Read some rate my teams and pick the popular ones if you havnt done any research. Also there has been a few rookie articles on here

Jimmyjimjim

HOWE OR ADAMS AND WHY????

Carl

JS for both isn't an issue. Howe will Ave 100 if he plays half back all year. Adams will Ave 105 as long as he plays. Howe could be moved fwd, Adams has injury history. Adams for me

Imgonnalose

Hey guys can I please get score Vs tog for WHE, Taranto, turner and schoenmakers

Rick Grimes

There's a very handy spreadsheet on here from about 2 weeks that will answer all your questions.

Imgonnalose

Can't open it on my terrible phone

Reggie

Thoughts on having Teia Miles from Hawthron to get butlers score. Seems like he should play soon and I rather have miles than Houston I think. Thoughts community.

Finnius

Don't do it. You can't be sure that he will play.

derek

i think he is a fair way off getting a game.

the hawks have hardly any injuries this year (thanks to an extra couple of weeks break over last September)

there were a couple of good players who also missed out, Stewart, Burton, Brand, Lovell…. i rate them all very high. Even Whitecross missed out this week.

HODGE needs to come back in next week…… very tough

TheBlindSpider

G'day Community,
With Spencer is out of the side, I’m panicking about not having big Max. I’ve been running with the SandiWitts combo, but thinking about reverting back to my original pairing of Gawn &Sandi. Will leave me a bit thin in the fwds though. Any advice would be much appreciated. Cheers
Option 1: Gawn, Simpkin (1-2-3 forward structure)
Option 2: Reiwoldt, Witts (2-2-2 forward structure)

Paddy

Join, spots available

727951

Nddjdndh

JPK in the wet against port. Might be a good vc option?

derek

he does like the wet.

Squiz

Mountford or Hibberd, Mounts PPM far better, seems to be JS queries tho?

the bont

at the moment I have housten forward, hibberd back and parrif middle. should I get rid of housten and put parif forward and hibberd to the middle bench and bring in otten in defense.

Bam bam

mcrae and tarranto or steele & roughy

Sully321

1st

Dutch

Long time, first time

Final dilemma:
Gawn and O'Meara
Or
Grundy and Beams?

Bells E Bubb

tough choice. Cox is going to steal points from Grundy I reckon. Cause he's too slow at FWD they'll need him to ruck a fair bit after he tires.

Dutch

Yeah I am sitting on option 1 at the moment, O'Meara makes me nervous though, even if he is the only midpricer in my midfield