Today we’re going to talk through last minute changes to our squads and why (probably) they are a bad idea.
Specifically the last minute changes that we haven’t really researched, the changes that are more of a gut feel than an educated decision, the changes that will probably land us in a world of hurt.
Prior to First Lockout
Before we get into last minute changes I’m going to highlight some considered and educated changes I made to my side between my team reveal and lockout.
Aside from the usual rookie changes, I turned Jake Lloyd, Teia Miles and Shaun ‘Bloody’ Higgins into Caleb Marchbank, Jarrod Witts and Adam Treloar.
The theory behind this is that group a) Lloyd/Miles/Higgins would feasibly score 880/600/900=2380 across the first ten rounds whereas group b) Marchbank/Witts/Treloar would score 800/750/1100=2650 across the first ten rounds.
Essentially I just moved into a more Guns and Rookies approach to ensure maximum point scoring and cash production as apposed to risking a breakout contender in Lloyd and an injury risk in Higgins. Pretty simple stuff, but this is what I would call an educated decision that ultimately strengthened my midfield and mitigated some midpriced risks.
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Grabbing Butler’s Score
Like many I had Butler on the bench with the E on him, as he was named on a forward flank I didn’t expect him to produce many points. Jarrod Pickett who I had selected on field was named on the wing and seemed the better option…how wrong I was. Butler scored 96 Supercoach points whilst Pickett scored a miserable 28.
As I wanted to grab Butler’s score but also didn’t want to trade in a 0, I traded Otten out of my defence (and through swingsets) brought in Preuss and slotted Strnadica in my forward line. Effectively by losing my short-term RUC/FWD swingset I’ve backed in Witts/Preuss to outscore Houston/Eddy…a fairly safe bet in my opinion.
If you are considering trading in a 0 to grab Butler’s score I would highly recommend that you don’t. The 30-40 points you gain this week is not worth sacrificing cash generation, it just isn’t. You can talk yourself into Darcy Cameron but I see no realistic outcome where he plays in the near future.
My Major Change
Now, aside from moving my rookies around with swingsets there is only one change I have made to my side. I have traded Scott Pendlebury down to Gary Ablett.
That’s right, I’ve brought in God himself.
The rumors surrounding Pendlebury’s Achilles started me down this path, and whilst I have a very reliable source that says he’s fit and firing once I went down the rabbit hole there was no turning back.
Basically I was looking to downgrade Pendles to another $600K player. My options were Tom Mitchell, Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Cripps, Gary Ablett…wait how is this even a discussion?
Yes Ablett still has queries over his body and yes Ablett has the early bye…but he’s Gary Ablett!
According to Old Ocker’s spreadsheet he has averaged 126.6 points per game between rounds 1 and 8 across the last six years. Now admittedly the last two years have been significantly less than that due to injury but even in 2016 Ablett went 6 rounds before dipping below a score of 100.
This selection started as a gut feeling but evolved into a fleshed out and well-informed decision. Ablett is only in 7.5% of teams and it’s Gary Ablett. I’m backing him and hoping the Supercoach Gods don’t smite me down.
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What Not To Do
The last thing you want to be doing today is changing your structures, you have them in place for a reason.
If like me you made your decisions during the last week and researched them well, great! But if you are starting to get nervous because it’s the last few hours before Friday Night Footy and you want to make changes for changes sake, don’t.
If a player isn’t in your team right now it’s for a reason, you don’t rate him as much as the players you have selected. That’s fine, close your browser, delete the Supercoach App and walk away.
You’ve done the hard work and you’re team is already at it’s best. Any more alterations will just risk undoing your whole preseason.
Breathe community; we are going to have a massive year.