NRL Supercoach Round 3 – It’s not 2018 just yet!
There are too many coaches already giving up on their SuperCoach season but there are a few things we need to keep in mind.
The 2017 season has been a brutal beast with proven Guns underperforming and popular captain choices producing disappointing efforts. It has definitely been a unique season but we need to look at the positives.
- We need to remember that we’re only three rounds into the season. You could be ranked outside the top 40,000 and still be a shot to crack the top hundred by seasons’ end. Coaches rise and fall by thousands of ranks throughout the bye period so make sure you’ve got your big bye round teams in mind. It’s never too early to prepare for those.
- Did you know there’s only a 200 point difference between being ranked 40,000th and 10,000th? There’s only about 100 points separating the coach ranked 10,000th and 1500th too! Just remember it doesn’t take long for someone to make up these points, especially with good captain choices.
- Don’t let laziness shoot you in the foot. We need to check the late mail and final team lists to ensure our trades and chosen seventeen are correct. We have plenty of websites, groups and tools available to give us the information needed to be prepared. Missing injury news and being forced to play an Auto Emergency could alter your round score by as much as 100 points; that’s the difference between being ranked at 10k and 1500th at this stage.
I scored above average this week with a score of 899. My major let downs were choosing Johnathan Thurston as my captain (20 points) and having Robbie Farah as my hooker (28 points). I’ve been lucky with injuries so far so I wasn’t forced to use someone like Yates, Stone or Moga in my seventeen. Looking forward, I’m hoping Penrith smash the Knights this weekend with Peachey, Cleary and Whare all scoring well. Maybe I’ll throw the big C on one of these blokes.
Get Rid of ‘Em
- Suliasi Vunivalu ($350.3k, 7% O/S) and Cameron Munster ($455.9k 7% O/S) will both miss a number of weeks through injury and aren’t worth holding due to their price. Vuni is expected to return in round six while Munster will miss a further two weeks. The Storm won’t be playing the first big bye round either so there aren’t really any positives with holding on to them.
- Issac Luke ($365.5k, 3% O/S) simply isn’t a stable option for your first choice hooker. He’s averaging just 29 points over the first three rounds which has resulted in a round four break even of 105. Find the extra cash to bring in Cameron Smith (BE: 60) or get some consistency in someone like Andrew McCullough (BE: 10, 61 AVG).
Robbie Farah ($353.4k, 8% O/S)
Scored well in the opening two rounds but produced a lousy 28 points (from 47 minutes) last weekend. It’s uncertain whether Farah will continue to play these minutes so is it worth taking the risk?
The Verdict: Farah’s value jumped just $6k after last week and it doesn’t look like his $353k price tag will increase again in the near future. It’ll go down if anything. The only negative with giving him the flick is his bye round availability, but you could always grab McCullough who is scoring well and available for round 12. McIness and Smith are also solid options. They may be more expensive but they’ll give your weekly score a boost. I couldn’t blame you for giving him another chance but I’d be worried about his output in the coming weeks. He’s a SELL
Luke Keary ($321.6k, 30% O/S)
Gained almost $60k after round three and now has a break even of 60 after his disappointing 16 point effort. Some coaches are now looking to offload Keary despite his 70 point average.
The Verdict: Keary has shown impressive form including an amazing 126 point effort. He may be less likely to increase in value but it’s hard to ignore the attacking brilliance we witnessed in the opening two rounds. I think it’s a bit harsh to show him the door after one poor performance. Let’s not forget the Roosters are up against the injury struck Rabbitohs on Thursday night and Keary will be more than capable of another huge score. He’s a HOLD
Kane Elgey ($230.1k, 23% O/S)
Was a very popular choice at the start of the season but coaches aren’t benefitting from his presence. He’s producing a 36 point average and has a round four break even of 39. Is it worth holding firm with the Titans’ five-eighth?
The Verdict: It’s easy to see both sides of the argument here. Elgey hasn’t and probably won’t be a productive member of your 25 man squad. He more than likely won’t gain any value in the near future and he isn’t scoring well enough to be part of your seventeen. On the flip side there’s no rush to get rid of him. You could keep him on the back burner if you have more pressing issues. Personally I’d try to find a more productive member for your team. He’s a SELL
Tautau Moga ($180.5k 28% O/S)
Currently the most traded out player in my team. He jumped up $13k in value last week and now has a break even of 25. Are coaches giving up on Moga too soon?
The Verdict: The short answer is yes. There’s absolutely no point giving up on Moga at this stage. Coaches may be unimpressed by his 33 point average but we need to keep in mind that the Broncos have played tough opponents in the opening three rounds. This means his attacking potential has been limited and his 33 average is simply a demonstration of his base output. Keep him on your NPR list if you’re worried about his performance against the Raiders this weekend, but it’s definitely too early to trade him out. Just remember he’s a $180k cheapie who isn’t going to drop in value. He’s a HOLD
Johnathan Thurston ($424.5k, 37% O/S)
The second most captained player for round three but scored just 20 points. He just dropped in value by $41k and has a round four break even of 107. Is it time to give this SuperCoach Gun the boot?
The Verdict: JT is the second most traded player currently in my team and I have to admit I’m a little surprised. Yes, he had a woeful game against Manly last weekend but we should be used to the rare low score he produces each season. Let’s keep in mind that the Cowboys have a very favourable draw over the next five weeks and I’m not willing to risk missing out on potential monsters. Unless he produces a run of poor form he should be in your team until the end.
Best 5 Break Evens (Must have played at least two games)
Corey Norman ($367.6k): -50
Robert Jennings ($143.6k): -38
Dean Whare ($176.3k): -32
Alex Johnston ($302.8k): -23
Brock Lamb ($227.6k): -23
Worst 5 Break Evens (Must have played at least two games)
Bryce Cartwright ($497.2k): 169
Joseph Leilua ($423.8k): 156
Jesse Bromwich ($436.7k): 145
Josh Hodgson ($374.4k): 123
James Tedesco ($469.9k) 121
Team List Tuesday
- Braiden Burns is OUT with Talakai returning to the centres and Cody Walker moved to fullback
- Bryce Cartwright in back. Dylan Edwards is OUT
- Corey Norman has returned
- James Segeyaro has been named on the extended bench
- Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is back
- Kieran Foran is named on the extended bench
- Matt Ballin is named on the bench
- Robert Jennings will score below a 40 point average for the next three weeks
- Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will score 60+
- Luke Keary will reward those who stick with him. 60+ against the Bunnies
I’m throwing the big C on Peachey against the Knights. Who are you going with?