Well community, here we are again for the third yearly team reveal of Lekdog’s Puppies.
What an offseason it has been. I traveled to America and spent many hours pumping teams into the Higginator, upon my return I began creating teams in the Supercoach selector, and now I lay my team before you.
This isn’t my first iteration by any stretch of the imagination; in fact I have 47 screenshots of different teams across my desktops. And like the use of carbon dating in the polar icecaps to trace global warming, I can trace my insanity across the last three months by flicking through a few of these pictures…it has been a long road.
Am I happy with my team? No. Am I confident with my team? No. Did I ignore the 10 Commandments article that Patch and I wrote? Yes. Am I going to have fun going with a new strategy? You better believe it!
I’ve done the guns and rookies thing, it’s worked and it keeps me in the top 1% every year, but 2017 is the year that I make a splash. Maybe I don’t win the $50K but hear me now; I will beat my 2016 best weekly ranking of 10th this year.
How am I going to do it? #Nankilands…or more accurately some midprice madness, but it all starts in the ruck.
On the 24th of February I first floated the idea of #Nankilands, mostly out of humor, a little out of fear, and if I’m honest a little out of arousal. Still in its infancy, the outlandish idea of #Nankilands was yet to even receive a hashtag I would repeat many times over the next few weeks.
Very few were convinced…
Even I had my doubts…
But one man inspired a glimmer of hope in my idea and it reshaped my entire preseason, that man of course was the Father of Fantasy.
So why does #Nankilands excite me? It’s the potential for high point production combined with a low price tag allowing for premium purchases around the ground.
I am hoping that Toby Nankervis will end 2017 as a keeper in the forward line. He is the number one ruckman at Richmond and averaged 102.3 Supercoach points on just 77.6% time on ground throughout the JLT series.
Aaron Sandilands is not a midprice player in my eyes. He is a fallen premium, which is a major distinction in my eyes. Sandilands will play 6 of his first 9 games at Domain Stadium, which is big because it will hopefully alleviate any risks of the big fella being rested. He also averaged 100.5 Supercoach points from 72% game time across the JLT series.
If Nankervis can average 89 and Sandilands can average 90 then by Round 10 the #Nankilands duo will have produced 1,790 points and $214,286 in accrued value. All this for the price of Max Gawn!?! Where will I spend all my free cash? Pretty much in my defence.
Just for clarity, Darcy Cameron will probably become Strnadica for loophole purposes.
I have elected to go one “premium” deeper than most in the defensive line. This has been a point of contention amongst my peers but I feel it will pay off dividends.
The first thing you’ll notice is that I’ve broken my own key rule and outlaid more than 10% of my total budget on my D1 and D2 positions. I am doing so for job security and consistent scoring.
I see Kade Simpson as maintaining a 100+ average under Brendan Bolton’s defensive structure. Nothing puts me at ease like seeing Simmo don the long sleeves on a cold afternoon and generally that translates to Supercoach relevancy #SleeveWatch.
Similarly Heath Shaw is as good as they come in defence and whilst some people have fears that he’ll be tagged out of games, his 2016 high score of 203 eases my mind. Sure he had some low scoring games but he was still the third ranked defender for total points in 2016.
Sure both of these older players will lose cash but the pair have missed a combined 6 games over the last three years and should award me with 2100 points by Round 10.
Rory Laird has been in and out of my side this preseason but ultimately if he can get his body right he won’t dip below $500K in 2017. He played very well in the preseason JLT Series and looks set to run through the midfield in the real deal. Lock him in.
Finally I have another midprice breakout contender in my side, Jake Lloyd. Last year I selected Dane Rampe who ended up the 13th ranked defender and this year I think that Lloyd, who finished as the 15th ranked defender in 2016, can reach even higher in 2017. Over his last 10 games (including finals and JLT Series) Lloyd has averaged 98.6 Supercoach points, which is about what I’d expect him to average throughout 2017.
Whilst I’m aware of a decent number of rookies available for our backlines I’m confident that the four I have selected are the best in terms of cash generation and job security.
Hampton tore up the preseason averaging 88 from 76.3% game time; Otten averaged 85.3 from 85% time on ground, Vickers-Willis averaged 65.3 from 83.6% and finally Stewart averaged 62.3 from 83.6% game time. These four players appear to be our best bet for backline security.
The core five players in my midfield haven’t changed this preseason.
Patrick Dangerfield had 18 scores of 101+ in 2016. For the second time this year I’m going to list them and then write nothing else on him.
162, 166, 137, 132, 129, 132, 127, 124, 229, 173, 110, 135, 140, 111, 144, 101, 131, 155.
Scott Pendlebury is probably the least secure of my five uber-premiums due to concerns over his calf but if he’s named in round 1 I’ll lock him away. Since 2008 Pendles has been the second best player in the competition and I see no reason as to why that would change in 2017.
Josh P Kennedy, Joel Selwood and Nat Fyfe (#FyfeIsLife) should all end up as top 8 averaging midfielders come the end of 2017. JPK sits in my midfield as a consistent performer and bye round captaincy option whereas Selwood and Fyfe are in my side for their explosive performances and ability to break games open.
Dayne Beams is my biggest risk in the midfield but I’m willing to risk a trade for his upside. Beams averaged 113.2 Supercoach points across 77 regular season games between 2011 and 2015. He basically didn’t play in 2016 and whilst his body is a concern I believe that Brisbane are confident that he’ll be back to his best as is evident in the club giving him the captaincy.
Running two on field rookies is a risk but I believe that I have offset the potential point loss of not running an O’Meara/Oliver across the rest of my premiums. My rookies are obviously subject to change but I think that Sam Powell-Pepper and a combination of Parfitt/Barrett will allow for consistent point production and cash generation.
Straight away you’ll notice I’m riding a rollercoaster in the forwardline. But when you’re going for overall ranking rather than league wins I don’t think it matters if you get a little bit sick on the occasional big drop.
Josh J Kennedy is perfectly priced for mine, and is ranked as the number one select option for forwards in the Jock Reynolds Magazine. He was the highest scoring forward in 2016 and has only missed three games in the last four years. Yeah he’s going to drop a 50 but he’s also going to score 150 against the Blues…swings and roundabouts.
Luke Dahlhaus has been in and out of my side due mostly to his huge team selection percentage (currently at 42.2%). Between 2013 and 2015 Dahl was the second highest scoring forward with 5,851 points (surprisingly behind Jack Gunston who is still fighting hard to make the Puppies). If he can stay on the park, which I think he will, then he’ll be a top 3 forward for 2017.
Hey remember this?
So yeah I’m ignoring that thanks to the beloved Patch, so when this backfires direct your Tweets saying “I told you so” towards him and not me. Shaun Higgins is in my side despite history and logic telling me not to select him. I watched every North Melbourne game this preseason and Higgins looked good, really good. He averaged 97 from 65% game time in a depleted Kangaroos outfit. I would expect him to average 90 (which will get him close to a top 8 forward) and I’m hoping he can play 20+ games…YOLO.
Jarryd Roughead was in one of my Top-5 articles as a must have. It has taken me a while to actually lock him in but damn he looks good at F4. He’s priced to average 70.8 and I think that conservatively he could average 85 in 2017, making him the perfect F6 at a very cheap price. His role in the JLT also intrigued me as he was basically playing on-ball when not resting forward…I think he’s a very good selection.
Our forwardline rookies are actually pretty decent this year despite the fact that most of them play on Sunday in Round 1. Eddy and Houston have been upgraded for Port and with Pittard out, Houston at least has good job security playing off halfback. Miles and Butler are easily interchangeable with Schoenmakers, Turner etc.
So there we have it community, Lekdog’s Puppies Round 1 side for 2017. There’s a fair bit of risk involved in my structures but I still think that I have 15 potential keepers in my side.
I’ve played it safe every year for as long as I remember so why not try adding some excitement to my 2017 in the form of a rollercoaster/injury prone Supercoach side? If it all goes to hell, well we have 30 trades.
As I say every year, picking your Round 1 side is the easy part but trading your way to glory is where it gets hard.
Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter community and may the Supercoach gods shine down upon us all.