JJ SuperCoach 2017

The Top-Deck Inaccuracy (Why You SHOULDN’T Pick Jason Johannisen)

Please Note:
This Information is highly classified and meant only for the eyes of the Community. Should an outsider see it, their electronic viewing device will be triggered to catch fire within 10 seconds and an automated incident report will be sent to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation. 

Thank you.


Between Strategic Reconnaissance for the Government of Zanzibar and dismantling the Solntsevskaya Bratva from the inside, I have found time to pen an article for the community.

This article will be focusing on a community favourite, a horribly-haired humanoid by the name of Jason Johannisen. I could focus the majority of this article on his utterly disgusting haircut that would see him executed in most parts of Northern Rhodesia. However, I have made the decision to focus this article on his viability as a Supercoach selection.

Straight off the bat, we must note that a whopping 73% of the JR Community that voted in this article have either LOCKED IN Johannisen or are very likely to start with him. In fact, 15% of Coaches worldwide have got him banged in to their current 22! I am certain that this figure will rise above 20% once we get to the season proper.

I find these figures STAGGERING to say the least.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s great that the long-limbed galloping antelope of a bastard is going places in the AFL, considering that he began as a speculative rookie draftee. Having said that, I won’t be going within a Jock’s Trouser-Snake of this bloke.

And Here Is Why

1) Is He Even Proven Tho? Surely There’s Someone Better? (Oh Wait, There IS X3!!!)

JJ is NOT proven in SuperCoach. I can already hear members in their Bulldogs jumpers leaping out of their ute hollering: ‘HE WON THE NORM SMITH MATE WHADDYA MEAN HE AINT PROVEN???!!!”. I am saying that he isn’t as proven as a SuperCoach selection!

Quite simply, he is yet to play a full season in his 5-year career.

Let’s assume that this is due to the fact that he wasn’t a priority selection back then (unlike now), with that in mind, take a look at the following numbers detailing his performances during his status as a Best 22 player for the Bulldogs:

GAMES PLAYED: 37 (20 in 2015, 17 in 2016-> FINALS INCLUDED)

AVERAGE OVER THE 37 GAMES: 85.5

SCORES OVER 90: 15 (40% hit-rate for a 90+ Score)

SCORES OVER 100: 12 (32% hit-rate for a 100+ Score)

SCORES OVER 120:  2 (5% hit-rate for a 120+ Score)

SUB-70 SCORES: 14 (39% hit-rate for a Sub-70 Score)

Telling to say the least. More telling than Roosevelt’s decision to complete the Panama Canal in 1914 even! As we can see, his 90/100+ strike rate is regrettably low given his starting price, whilst his sub-70 strike rate is regrettably high for the same reason. Some may argue that this is because he only truly broke-out last year. But even when we analyse his numbers in 2016 in ISOLATION, they still don’t stack to other Defensive Premium Options who are in FEWER SIDES, here’s a comparison:

JJ in 2016 (INCLUDING FINALS):
90+ Scores= 9/17 @ 53%
100+ Scores= 7/17 @41%
120 + Scores= 2/17 @11%

ALEX RANCE in 2016 ($20K MORE THAN JJ)
90+ Scores= 12/20 @ 60% (+7% on JJ)
100+ Scores= 9/20 @ 45% (+4% on JJ)
120+ Scores= 4/20 @ 20%  (+9% on JJ)

BERNIE VINCE in 2016 ($12K LESS THAN JJ)
90+ Scores= 12/21 @ 57% (+4% on JJ)
100+ Scores= 9/21 (Excluding a score of 99) @ 43% (+2% on JJ)
120+ Scores= 2/21 @ 9% (-2% on JJ)

LEIGH MONTAGNA in 2016 ($23K MORE THAN JJ)
90+ Scores= 14/22 @ 64% (+11% on JJ)
100+ Scores = 11/22 @ 50% (+9% on JJ)
120+ Scores= 4/22 @ 18% (+7% on JJ)

Note: Don’t you dare give me that “He’s getting old” business, the little Italian has aged like his Nonna’s bloody pasta sauce and averaged 104 since turning 30. He has only missed 5 games in the last 4 years so whatever it is you’re smoking, I suggest you stow it where POW’s hid their watches.

Above we have 3 perfectly viable alternatives (with FAR FAR better haircuts I might add) that people are overlooking for JJ. Why? I have no idea! It boggles the mind considering that ALL 3 of these players have greater durability…which leads me to my next point;

2) Durability (Q: What does the Hamstring Say? A: TWAAAANG)

In Round 4 of 2016, JJ tore a hamstring tendon in the area where it inserts onto the back of the knee.

He underwent surgery and returned 11 Rounds later to see out the season. You don’t need a Medical Masters Degree Diploma Doctorate from the University of OxStanVard to understand that Hamstrings are RECURRING INJURIES!!!!!!! In fact, 24% of athletes that suffer a Medium-High grade Hamstring injury suffer recurring problems with the same hamstring.

Lets put this into a handy equation:

AFL being a HIGH Intensity Sport + JJ’s Hamstring Tear + The pressure he exposes his hamstring to by running at top-flight like a headless chook = JJ can NOT be trusted to STRING 22 Games together (Pun very much intended).

There are a BEVY of far more durable options at a more reasonable price, this must be bleedingly obvious even to the most bleedingest of bleeding heart JJ fans.

ALMOST 100 PLAYER REVIEWS BY THE COMMUNITY HERE! STUDY UP!

3) Attention from Opposition (Brace yourselves…the Tag is coming)

If you can look me in the eye and tell me that you FIRMLY believe JJ will see NO ATTENTION from the opposition in 2017; you better have an ambulance/coroner/undertaker on standby. Of his 24 avg disposals in 2016, 19 of them were Uncontested.

The bloke is a seagull who can hurt the opposition, the good news for non-WB coaches is that seagulls are very easy to shut down! There is absolutely no chance Johannisen will be allowed to waltz through the middle and get the easy handpass from a team-mate: much like the way Brodie Smith went from being one of the highest handball-recipients to one of the lowest following his AA year.

Old boy Johannisen will need to find other ways to score to complement his game, like Heath Shaw/Sam Docherty have done by adding Intercept Marks as a major feature to their game.

On that note..

4) Score Sources (Supercoach is like a Box of Chocolates…)

As I alluded to above, JJ relies heavily on the Uncontested Seed to get his Supercoach Points. 19/24 disposals per game were uncontested in 2016. Almost ALL of these were kicks (Avg 17 Kicks) which was great, but when you factor in that the opposition won’t allow him the same time and space to assess and select which tit to hit, he will need to score in other ways, and this is precisely where the butter turns to bullshit: He averaged a meagre 2 Tackles, 1 Clearance (Clearly not an inside player) and 1 Intercept mark. In addition to those, he took only 3 Contested Marks for the Entire Year.

Based on this, it’s very difficult to see where his scoring will come from once the easy outside, kick-to-kick pill is taken away from him. Its even MORE difficult to justify this risk when you’re staring at the $513k price tag that hangs off his god-awful bonce.

All in all, there are ways for people to justify picking JJ even in spite of all this hard evidence. Some might argue that he’s due to go to the NEXT LEVEL (Something I simply don’t see happening). Others might say that even with a tag/injury risk he is good-enough a player to average 95+ in 2017.

Whatever the case may be- make your decisions as informed citizens of this community.

Because as Plato once said:

“He who makes a Supercoach Selection without doing his research is little more than a human pig”

Good Luck!

Mr. X

 

NOW is the time to buy your copy of the 2017 SuperCoach BIBLE! Delivery in 3 days:


60 Comments

Krups · 01/03/2017 at 16:39

Was never in my team and even more so now. Cheers Mr.X

    mason · 03/03/2017 at 22:45

    Ditto

gaveday · 01/03/2017 at 16:41

Yeah nah Mr X. He's a lock for me. Appreciate the effort, love your work, and feel free to rub it in my face mid season when you're proven correct. But yeah he's still in my team.

    Kev · 01/03/2017 at 17:56

    Something to back up the JJ selection up Gaveday or gut feel?

      gaveday · 01/03/2017 at 18:46

      He got injured last year and looked the goods prior, the dogs will lose nothing this year and ooze confidence – I expect him to deliver this year, as with most dogs. Premiers for mine, SC spoils to be had.

JeffHeadJfc · 01/03/2017 at 16:48

Ripping work mate. Totally in agreeance, his season is gonna be as curly as one of those squirrel turds on his head

INPieman · 01/03/2017 at 16:54

Very nice Mr X. I think the attention Shaw got later in the season could spark attention for damaging defenders like JJ Doch & Shaw. For that reason I'm unlikely to start with any of those lads

    The Stiv · 01/03/2017 at 17:36

    Which premo defenders you looking at starting?
    Laird is locked in for me. So was Montagna until the calf strain. He's now a wait and see.

      INPieman · 01/03/2017 at 17:47

      2-0-6 Adams & Laird ATM. Subject to change. Had Montagna for a lot of last year. Will throw in some poor games & plummet in price

        The Stiv · 02/03/2017 at 22:41

        Wow 4 on field rookies. I love it.

        The durability of Adams worries me. My gut tells me to steer clear.

Anthony · 01/03/2017 at 17:14

Mr X you have not considered his for pre hammy he was exloding avg over 100 last year. Only in the last 12 months has he become a rebounding weapon in a team thats main weapon is its rebound off half back. I think he can only get better, he avg 94 with the hammy injury last year i can only see him getting better.

    Krups · 01/03/2017 at 17:20

    Teams will pay more attention to him and may halt his freedom running off halfback. Would like to see how he goes with a tag or someone riding him

      Anthony · 01/03/2017 at 17:25

      Im probably a tad biased being a dogs fan but he is probably the most important player for us, i dont think you can stop him, tagging rebouding defenders is tough because we have 3/4 (Murph Biggs JJ even suckling). I honestly think his pace makes him untaggable and hes only getting better will avg 97-103 imo and that makes him a valid pick

      Billy · 01/03/2017 at 20:27

      Watch his break in the last quarter of the prelim against GWS. He runs in top of the ground while every player around him is on a treadmill. The article kind of implied he was soft by citing his tackle and CP numbers which leads to the belief he cant break a tag, but very few players could stay with this bloke for 120 minutes, he's an aerobic animal. Probably the reason he doesn't get tagged much. We've all played footy at some level I'm sure, there's nothing more demoralising than chasing a bloke and watching him put yards on you with every stride!

Browncow · 01/03/2017 at 17:41

Great write up X. As soon as you mentioned JJ in the same sentence as Brodie Smith he was off the watchlist.

Clokey · 01/03/2017 at 17:45

2 Marks and 1 tackle p/game less than Docherty in 2016 and 2marks and 1 tackle p/game MORE than Vince in 2016. At the same stage of their his career Bernie aved 78 this year he'll make way for the young bulls.
JJ has increased his ave marks p/game every year and also increased his ave tackles p/game every year. If you think that the Bulldogs will just allow an opponent to TRY and run beside JJ all day you're an even bigger fool than your stats analysis suggests.
Considering the above and the fact that JJ made a comeback from a major injury and still managed to increase his marks and tackles stats over previous years I'd say that your argument is just propaganda and negative hyperbole.

    Kev · 01/03/2017 at 18:13

    Nice bit of research, Clokey. Statistically JJ and Doch are very similar over a lot of categories. The big one though is Doch averaged 108.7 v JJ's 93.5. AFL fantasy was 101 v 95.4.

    Suggests to me that the boffins over at SCHQ see Doch as more damaging

      INPieman · 01/03/2017 at 18:35

      Don't have the stats but I'd guess the difference is DE. JJ chops it up a lot more than Doch

        Kev · 01/03/2017 at 19:53

        81 v 77, Pie. Not huge but enough. Doch TOG% almost 10% more

          INPieman · 01/03/2017 at 20:14

          Interesting. JJ TOG would have been affected by that nasty hammy

    wombatsfc · 01/03/2017 at 20:25

    I reckon Docherty is the one to worry about Clokey. With Marchbank playing taller than tuohy Dochs marks p/game will drop and considering the length of marchbanks kick Doch could be sharing a few of those as well.
    Not unrealistic to predict a 70-120k price drop from Docherty by round 11. Remember when TMac went from 70 ave in 2014 to 95 in 2015? Then in 2016 he started with 110 but had 3 sub 60's in first 7 rounds and only 1 ton up to round 14, but still finished with an ave of 89, point is he was 100k+ cheaper when rookies were nearing peak, Docherty will be the same.

      throttlefinger · 02/03/2017 at 06:28

      Tend to think the same, Wombats. Don't feel Docherty or JJ will pay off for their price.

      JJ is a rising star and still largely unproven. No full season and his best average was from 16 games. Need a little more to lock in at that price.

      Solid article, Mr. X.

        wombatsfc · 02/03/2017 at 10:07

        I reckon we need to cool our jets on Goldy as well Throttle. When a number 1 ruck does an interviewing arguing the point for having 3 rucks playing you've gotta think that there'll be at least 2. Take 15 hitouts off goldys score and it gets a bit scary

          throttlefinger · 02/03/2017 at 10:38

          He said something similar about Currie a couple years ago and didn't pan out. He's on the upgrade target list so will see how he pans out.

Dee · 01/03/2017 at 18:37

anyone thinking Thurlow as D3?

    Phil MacKrakin · 01/03/2017 at 19:05

    yep

    bUCKET__ · 01/03/2017 at 21:11

    I was all preseason, but now:

    a) looked a bit rusty in JLT1
    b) what's his role? cats defense is looking like a blackholeclusterf%$k of significance this year
    c) good DEF rookies, is it really the line to test a breaktout midpricer? for 13k more you can have the more proven Swallow in the mids

    will still be tempted mind you!

Luskin Star · 01/03/2017 at 18:40

Great analysis. Not only have you convinced me that my decision to give him a wide berth was justified but you also have me wondering if i dismissed Montagna a little too quickly. Hmmm

Cromagnon · 01/03/2017 at 19:14

Great write up Mr X, I really like your writing style. And I agree re: JJ, don't think he'll be a top 6 defender.

Clock Management · 01/03/2017 at 19:35

Won't be a top 6 defender pretty simple, same as Heeney in fwd line, both traps in my view but we wait and we see.

    John · 01/03/2017 at 19:50

    Heeney has the ability to take the game by storm. Its just a matter of when he does it.

      Burnmen · 01/03/2017 at 20:11

      So does JJ.

        John · 01/03/2017 at 20:46

        The knock on JJ is he is likely to get tagged whereas Heeney is not. JJ also has the hamstring injury history which Heeney does not. I'm confident JJ will not be a top 6 defender but I'm wondering if Heeney is a chance? Who is top 10? Roo, Dahlhaus, JJK, Lynch, Gunston, Macrae, Buddy then the last few spots I believe are up for grabs. Could potentially be Caddy, Rioli, maybe Heeney?

          Burnmen · 02/03/2017 at 12:25

          Rioli and Heeney are unlikely to be top ten. Rioli can go missing but can score huge in some passages of play. Heeney not convinced yet.

          But I guess seeing as there's not a huge range of forward options this year anything is possible.

    Rivo · 01/03/2017 at 21:13

    Agree Clock. Can't see him making top 6 defenders, maybe top 10. A few others ahead of JJ for my starting lineup.

Billy · 01/03/2017 at 20:23

Im not sure about this one Mr.X. The points you make are valid but a balanced discussion is always most beneficial. He was a borderline premium last year and at his age in a good side its logical that he'll improve further. He had six Brownlow votes to Round 3 and was on track for three more in Round 4 before he did his string so he can definitely play. He was averaging 100 at that stage when one of his games was only a half, small sample I know but he can score in SC terms as well.
Personally I think the whole 'he'll get attention this year' is a bit of a nonsense, and it applies to all players that have that said about them. AFL coaches don't sit down at the end of every year and say 'OK JJ had a good year so we'll tag him next year." They knew what he was about last year and chose to leave him alone, for whatever reason. Maybe they dont think he is damaging enough to warrant a tag, or maybe so few players can even keep up with him to put the required pressure on!
I won't be picking him either because I dont think his disposal is good enough for him to take the next step but I won't be shocked at all if he does. He's a young player relatively inexperienced in the game so still learning and playsbin a very friendly role. He's absolutely a valid selection in defence.

    Steven Jurica · 02/03/2017 at 08:59

    Sam Mitchell a casing point, every year since he was in nappies people have been claiming he'll be getting more attention the next year.

      Billy · 02/03/2017 at 13:05

      Yep and it's said about Heath Shaw every year as well

UncleSwaggy · 01/03/2017 at 21:11

If it makes anyone feel better I done my hamstring tendon 8 years ago and it hasnt reoccured yet, but then again mine wasnt properly managed and im in pain daily. take this information however you like.

    aunty what the · 01/03/2017 at 22:55

    wtf

    Steven Jurica · 02/03/2017 at 09:01

    So you're saying JJ won't do his hammy again but he will be in pain. However, his will be managed better than yours so he won't be in as much pain as you. Who's on first?

    wombatsfc · 02/03/2017 at 10:26

    Makes me feel a lot better to hear that you're in pain Uncle, you deserve the pain for posting the inane comment

    UncleSwaggy · 02/03/2017 at 18:37

    Spot on Steven

    Wombat sometimes i try to make a point but then my mind wanders and it goes no where, probably all the concussions i picked up along the way, long story short dont let your kids play football, unless they actually have talent unlike me

      wombatsfc · 02/03/2017 at 20:04

      No worries uncle you're obviously suffering many ailments, I'll send some earplugs for aunty

        Steven Jurica · 03/03/2017 at 08:54

        I had a few concussions playing football and it has never affected me. Did I ever tell you i had a few concussions playing football?

          UncleSwaggy · 03/03/2017 at 16:25

          everyone probably has gotten a few concussions but have you ever gotten one playing football?

Rivo · 01/03/2017 at 21:16

I like JJ, but too risky for my starting squad. Safer premo starters to pick from.

Azza · 02/03/2017 at 03:59

Bit harsh X-pac —– small rebounding defenders have always been valid SC picks — especially with the run and carry JJ provides. Imagine if his DE improves he will be top 5 easily. Its one thing to say he will get more attention and it's another for his opponent to actually execute this – like others have said he was flying in first few games until he tore is hammy just before HT against Carlton and he was clearly BOG going into the long break with 19 disposals – 4 marks and a goal and a whopping 97SC in two qtrs.

Supercoach Spud · 02/03/2017 at 06:46

Backs=Doch,,Laird,Vince,Hamton ,Newman,Ryan,Vickers-Wills,Stewart,
Mids=Danger,JPK,Pendles,Gray,Shuey,Fyfe,SPP,Picket,Jarman,Graham,Freeman,
Rucks=Gawn,Toby Nak,Strnadica,
Fwds=Josh Kennedy,Dalhouse,Ryder,Roughead,Black,Eddy,Smith,Camreeon,

help with any part of team and $8,111 in bank

Need to look at Andy Otten he was good till he started getting injured

Declan · 02/03/2017 at 07:14

Agree Mr X.

Lots are saying that Mr X is forgetting about prior to his hamstring. However he only played 4 games and produced scores of 130,123, 70, 97.He wasn't belting out 100's he performed well in 3 games but then fell away in the other. This proves the inconsistency. Also Johanissen is a damaging defender however his efficiency is very low, which hinders his super coach output in my opinion.

    Billy · 02/03/2017 at 10:23

    3/4 is pretty damn good for a defender not many of them can mange that.
    I agree with you regarding his DE tho

Steven Jurica · 02/03/2017 at 08:57

Why You SHOULD Pick Jason Johanissen
– Reigning Norm Smith Medalist
– Has been taking almost every kick out in the JLT and I don't see that changing in the regular season
– Got off to an absolute flyer last season and those who didn't start with him were breathing a sigh of relief when he did his hammy
– The bulldogs run and carry game plan means he isn't restricted to the D50, he pushes up to the wing and even forward flanks looking for possessions
– Bob Murphy back from injury means he won't be the only one teams will be looking to tag
– This smells awefully similar to when Jock proclaimed Max Gawn washed up and traded him out

    Kev · 02/03/2017 at 09:55

    Well at least you won't win supercoach this year, thanks for eliminating yourself

      Steven Jurica · 03/03/2017 at 08:56

      No worries, now you only need to beat 147,458 instead of 147,459.

gaveday · 02/03/2017 at 11:01

While I'm at it, defensive tags are well over rated. They don't happen anywhere near as much as you'd think. Most clubs believe that your better winning the contest in the fwd 50 and maintaining pressure as a group, tagging a defender mostly sees a good coach push that bloke up the ground to grad away the opposition fwd.

Toxic · 02/03/2017 at 11:47

I agree with not picking JJ first up as I see the doggies becoming a lot like GWS – very even spread of points.
For me there are more value picks available:
the forgotten duo of
Hodge and Kade (talk about durable)
Value picks
in 2E & Mills

He's certainly not a must have imo

Burnmen · 02/03/2017 at 12:26

When has JJ been tagged out of a game?

Azza · 03/03/2017 at 00:30

tagging has almost become redundant over past two – three seasons. I think when Big G-Mac called a meeting of all coaches over to his place for a chat — most of what was discussed, if the Hun and Age are right, centered on making the game more attractive – meaning less negating tactics used by coaches.

In his first two years Luke Beveridge has not employed a "hard tag" on any star midfielder – the closest from what ive seen to a close tag was when we played Geelong at Skilled – I think it was Libba who ran with him closely, but Libba srill had 17 possies til halftme when he got injured and then Danger went BANG. When we played Adelaide twice in 2015 — Danger didnt even have an opponent next to him at stoppages – thats not to say the use of a "defensive"forward to negate a damaging rebound defender like JJ has gone out of the game – I just believe that the days of taggers not even looking at the ball and just constantly blocking, grappling etc their opponent is almost extinct. Liam Picken was our tagger under MaCartney – now he is one of a dozen mids in our team whos sole focus is finding the pill and getting inside 50.

Waz · 03/03/2017 at 08:47

Easy to say tag a guy like jj, much much harder to do esp with the support the doggies have around him. Only one thing beats a hard tag. Pace. Good luck trying to catch up with him.
Brodie smiths decline occurred after head knocks, injury and the introduction and role of a guy named laird. If fit and using the pill better than he did early on the gf he will improve his figures again. I don't have him yet, but …

Finnius123 · 03/03/2017 at 09:07

If i'm not picking JJ, do you think I should select Vince or Tuohy. Tuohy is cheaper and has the potential to boom, but vince has shown consistency. Thoughts?

Comments are closed.