The Top-Deck Inaccuracy (Why You SHOULDN’T Pick Jason Johannisen)
This Information is highly classified and meant only for the eyes of the Community. Should an outsider see it, their electronic viewing device will be triggered to catch fire within 10 seconds and an automated incident report will be sent to the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.
Between Strategic Reconnaissance for the Government of Zanzibar and dismantling the Solntsevskaya Bratva from the inside, I have found time to pen an article for the community.
This article will be focusing on a community favourite, a horribly-haired humanoid by the name of Jason Johannisen. I could focus the majority of this article on his utterly disgusting haircut that would see him executed in most parts of Northern Rhodesia. However, I have made the decision to focus this article on his viability as a Supercoach selection.
Straight off the bat, we must note that a whopping 73% of the JR Community that voted in this article have either LOCKED IN Johannisen or are very likely to start with him. In fact, 15% of Coaches worldwide have got him banged in to their current 22! I am certain that this figure will rise above 20% once we get to the season proper.
I find these figures STAGGERING to say the least.
Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s great that the long-limbed galloping antelope of a bastard is going places in the AFL, considering that he began as a speculative rookie draftee. Having said that, I won’t be going within a Jock’s Trouser-Snake of this bloke.
And Here Is Why
1) Is He Even Proven Tho? Surely There’s Someone Better? (Oh Wait, There IS X3!!!)
JJ is NOT proven in SuperCoach. I can already hear members in their Bulldogs jumpers leaping out of their ute hollering: ‘HE WON THE NORM SMITH MATE WHADDYA MEAN HE AINT PROVEN???!!!”. I am saying that he isn’t as proven as a SuperCoach selection!
Quite simply, he is yet to play a full season in his 5-year career.
Let’s assume that this is due to the fact that he wasn’t a priority selection back then (unlike now), with that in mind, take a look at the following numbers detailing his performances during his status as a Best 22 player for the Bulldogs:
GAMES PLAYED: 37 (20 in 2015, 17 in 2016-> FINALS INCLUDED)
AVERAGE OVER THE 37 GAMES: 85.5
SCORES OVER 90: 15 (40% hit-rate for a 90+ Score)
SCORES OVER 100: 12 (32% hit-rate for a 100+ Score)
SCORES OVER 120: 2 (5% hit-rate for a 120+ Score)
SUB-70 SCORES: 14 (39% hit-rate for a Sub-70 Score)
Telling to say the least. More telling than Roosevelt’s decision to complete the Panama Canal in 1914 even! As we can see, his 90/100+ strike rate is regrettably low given his starting price, whilst his sub-70 strike rate is regrettably high for the same reason. Some may argue that this is because he only truly broke-out last year. But even when we analyse his numbers in 2016 in ISOLATION, they still don’t stack to other Defensive Premium Options who are in FEWER SIDES, here’s a comparison:
JJ in 2016 (INCLUDING FINALS):
90+ Scores= 9/17 @ 53%
100+ Scores= 7/17 @41%
120 + Scores= 2/17 @11%
ALEX RANCE in 2016 ($20K MORE THAN JJ)
90+ Scores= 12/20 @ 60% (+7% on JJ)
100+ Scores= 9/20 @ 45% (+4% on JJ)
120+ Scores= 4/20 @ 20% (+9% on JJ)
BERNIE VINCE in 2016 ($12K LESS THAN JJ)
90+ Scores= 12/21 @ 57% (+4% on JJ)
100+ Scores= 9/21 (Excluding a score of 99) @ 43% (+2% on JJ)
120+ Scores= 2/21 @ 9% (-2% on JJ)
LEIGH MONTAGNA in 2016 ($23K MORE THAN JJ)
90+ Scores= 14/22 @ 64% (+11% on JJ)
100+ Scores = 11/22 @ 50% (+9% on JJ)
120+ Scores= 4/22 @ 18% (+7% on JJ)
Note: Don’t you dare give me that “He’s getting old” business, the little Italian has aged like his Nonna’s bloody pasta sauce and averaged 104 since turning 30. He has only missed 5 games in the last 4 years so whatever it is you’re smoking, I suggest you stow it where POW’s hid their watches.
Above we have 3 perfectly viable alternatives (with FAR FAR better haircuts I might add) that people are overlooking for JJ. Why? I have no idea! It boggles the mind considering that ALL 3 of these players have greater durability…which leads me to my next point;
2) Durability (Q: What does the Hamstring Say? A: TWAAAANG)
In Round 4 of 2016, JJ tore a hamstring tendon in the area where it inserts onto the back of the knee.
He underwent surgery and returned 11 Rounds later to see out the season. You don’t need a Medical Masters Degree Diploma Doctorate from the University of OxStanVard to understand that Hamstrings are RECURRING INJURIES!!!!!!! In fact, 24% of athletes that suffer a Medium-High grade Hamstring injury suffer recurring problems with the same hamstring.
Lets put this into a handy equation:
AFL being a HIGH Intensity Sport + JJ’s Hamstring Tear + The pressure he exposes his hamstring to by running at top-flight like a headless chook = JJ can NOT be trusted to STRING 22 Games together (Pun very much intended).
There are a BEVY of far more durable options at a more reasonable price, this must be bleedingly obvious even to the most bleedingest of bleeding heart JJ fans.
3) Attention from Opposition (Brace yourselves…the Tag is coming)
If you can look me in the eye and tell me that you FIRMLY believe JJ will see NO ATTENTION from the opposition in 2017; you better have an ambulance/coroner/undertaker on standby. Of his 24 avg disposals in 2016, 19 of them were Uncontested.
The bloke is a seagull who can hurt the opposition, the good news for non-WB coaches is that seagulls are very easy to shut down! There is absolutely no chance Johannisen will be allowed to waltz through the middle and get the easy handpass from a team-mate: much like the way Brodie Smith went from being one of the highest handball-recipients to one of the lowest following his AA year.
Old boy Johannisen will need to find other ways to score to complement his game, like Heath Shaw/Sam Docherty have done by adding Intercept Marks as a major feature to their game.
On that note..
4) Score Sources (Supercoach is like a Box of Chocolates…)
As I alluded to above, JJ relies heavily on the Uncontested Seed to get his Supercoach Points. 19/24 disposals per game were uncontested in 2016. Almost ALL of these were kicks (Avg 17 Kicks) which was great, but when you factor in that the opposition won’t allow him the same time and space to assess and select which tit to hit, he will need to score in other ways, and this is precisely where the butter turns to bullshit: He averaged a meagre 2 Tackles, 1 Clearance (Clearly not an inside player) and 1 Intercept mark. In addition to those, he took only 3 Contested Marks for the Entire Year.
Based on this, it’s very difficult to see where his scoring will come from once the easy outside, kick-to-kick pill is taken away from him. Its even MORE difficult to justify this risk when you’re staring at the $513k price tag that hangs off his god-awful bonce.
All in all, there are ways for people to justify picking JJ even in spite of all this hard evidence. Some might argue that he’s due to go to the NEXT LEVEL (Something I simply don’t see happening). Others might say that even with a tag/injury risk he is good-enough a player to average 95+ in 2017.
Whatever the case may be- make your decisions as informed citizens of this community.
Because as Plato once said:
“He who makes a Supercoach Selection without doing his research is little more than a human pig”
NOW is the time to buy your copy of the 2017 SuperCoach BIBLE! Delivery in 3 days:
— Jock Reynolds (@jock_reynolds) February 18, 2017