Risky SuperCoach Business

Published by Trigger Happy on

Risky SuperCoach 2017 Business


Are you a SuperCoach Risk Taker? Risk Adverse? Or somewhere in between?

The only way to know this is to look at your SuperCoach Risk Profile.  If you get your risk profile right you will be smiling like Tom Cruise above but if you get it wrong you may end up paying a high price like poor old Tom when he had to buy back all his parents’ furniture at inflated prices.

So what is your risk profile?

There has to be some calculated risk to get the edge on your competition and other teams but how much is too much?

Is the biggest risk not taking a risk at all?

We can either try risk management according to the cartoon below and hope it doesn’t explode in your face or try and put a bit of science behind it and work out just how much is too much risk?

SuperCoach Risk Management

SuperCoach Player Risk Profile

I have put together a fairly simple risk matrix that puts this into perspective.

I have used the last 3 years as it wouldn’t be a true reflection of risk to use last year only. 3 years is more representative of how risky a player is. All the suspended bombers I have put in zero games played in 2016. This impacts their risk profile but I think this needs to be taken into account as they have not played footy for 12 months so there is risk associated with picking them.

I have used Old Ockers brilliant spreadsheet (a MUST have – get it here & donate to the Great man!) and just tweaked it slightly. The general gist is I have used the games played each year by each player and then divided that by the total games played for that year. I have added two columns both highlighted in blue. The first one is total games played each year. Pretty simple this one. 22 games for the last 3 years excluding the byes. The other is the % of games played per year. This is used to determine your risk profile of a particular player. This is simply the games played per year by a player divided by total number of games. This gives you your risk profile. I have applied a filter to the last 3 years as that is the period that I have focused the risk profile on.

Download my RISK optimised spreadsheet here (must have Excel on a desktop or laptop)

The easiest way to find a player is to click on the player and filter by player in cell A1.

Then in the search box type in the player you are looking for in this case we will use Patrick Dangerfield.

Once you have found the player you want click the ok button. For Danger he has played 65 out of a possible 66 games over the last 3 years and has a risk profile of 98%.

SuperCoach Risk matrix

The risk profile I have set up is follows:

Metrix Legend

So in dangers case you know you can select him with the knowledge he will be there week in and week out.


Supercoach Team Risk Profile

So that is great for players but what about your team as a whole?

Well you can do this in two ways:

  1. Select all the players in your team by ticking each one under player (Cell A1) (excluding the rookie players who haven’t played a game yet). This will give your teams overall risk profile.
  1. Key in each player’s name and number of games for the last 3 years into the Risk Profile template attached.

Example: Trigger’s Team Risk Profile

Trigs SuperCoach team

Using my team as an example (tab 3 – Trigger’s Team) if you filter on Sam Docherty (as per the instructions above) in Old Ockers worksheet you get the number of games he has played over the last 3 years. In his case he played 22 in 2016 (col B), 19 in 2015 (Col D) and 16 in 2014 (Col F). This shows you the % of games played each year, over the 3 years and gives you the risk profile for each player (col K). In Doc’s case he has a risk profile of 86%. So he only has a moderate chance of missing a game.

If you repeat this process for each player in your team by filling in the template, this will calculate the risk profile of each player, the risk profile of each position and the overall risk profile of your team. This can be found in cell K42.



Risk Profile 78%.  I have chosen to start Taylor Adams who has a risk profile of 67% so he is a pretty risky selection but I have balanced this out with also starting Doc and Laird who have a risk profile over 80%.


Risk Profile 82%. I have deliberately selected highly durable players who are unlikely to miss games as my 5 premos each with a risk profile over 90%. This has allowed me to select Fyfe who is a risky selection but is the only risky premo in my midfield. So I am happy with this calculated risk. Myers is a very risky but selected on the value he presents and purely as a cash cow. If I decided not to start Myers and go with another rookie my midfield risk profile jumps to 90%.


Risk profile 69%. The rucks are my riskiest line with Gawn being a risker pick that Sandilands! That really surprised me. Gawn has a lot of injuries early in his career but last year played 22 games for the first time. I’m hoping for a repeat performance but something to bear in mind when selecting Big Maxy.


Risk profile 71%. Again this is fairly risky but I have selected a couple of value picks in Roughead and Ryder who didn’t play in 2016. So there is risk in selecting them. As I have a reliable midfield I am happy to take a couple of risks on this line and start them. I will watch Caddy in the preseason as his risk profile is pretty high so might have to bring in a less risky player. Wait and see.

Overall – Risk Profile

Risk Profile – 77%

Note: I have coloured each players risk profile manually in my team. Maybe an excel expert out there may be able to create a formula to use multiple conditional formats to colour the risk profile the right colour depending on where is sits in the risk profile range but this is beyond me. I have however put in a conditional format in the risk profile to highlight the risk profile red if the % is below 50%.

My take on the team risk profile is ideally you should be between 70%-80% to strike the right balance between risky and safe picks.

Between 75%-80% is the ideal balance. You are prepared to take some risk but not too much that it would adversely affect the overall performance of your team.

Over 80% and you are very risk adverse with a low risk of players missing games but may miss out on some value picks that have been discounted due to an injury discount.

Under70% is a risky team like the one below and you should expect to:

  1. Replace a player as they are highly likely to reinjure themselves
  2. May have to field a rookie on field as a player is likely to miss a couple of games with an injury

Triggers Second Team

In my opinion as the team above has risk profile of 60% this would be too risky of team to start with.


I realise injuries happen and no one can predict when they are going to hit and what impact they are going to have on your team but at least we can try and minimise the impact by taking a couple of calculated risks but not too many to try and give your team the ideal risk profile and the best chance of success.

Anyway this is just my take and another tool to help you to build your team over the preseason.

Hope this helps and allows you to undertake an informed risky/safe selection strategy.

What is your Risk Profile?




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Great article Trigger. Am I blind or is there no link to your spreadsheet??


Am I missing something? Where do you download this?


That team is insanely good! No clue how you fit all that under the salary cap, but well done!


It must be known that if you don't have Excel you can download a program called LibreOffice which can open it, and it's free. Available for Mac OS and Linux.


Great stuff with the risk calculator fellas. Looking forward to testing it out tonight!!


Bought a tear to the eye Ruck, an absolute RIPPER by Trigger Happy.


From what I understand about risk analysis, this work captures half of the approach-assessing likelihood, but misses the other half which is consequence. In this context, consequence might be identified as "reward" and therefore this likelihood should be balanced with the reward to be really useful. A good risk analysis would then indicate that a player with high risk of injury but high reward (e.g. Fyfe, Rockliffe) would be seen differently to a player with high risk and moderate reward. Also a player with moderate risk and high reward would score better than a player with low risk and moderate reward. I wonder if expanding this tool to consider reward might not make this a truly awesome SC tool. JR categories such as burnman, no hair downstair and marshmallow-on-stick may be useful consequence items to include.


On reflection, this approach applies to premium v low cost rookes. Whilst we consider the slower accumulation of cash for premium rookies, we must also look at the consequence to our on-field scoring. If we can get premium rookies that get us 70-80 pts on field then they are still preferable over cheap rookies putting away at 30-50 on the bench and too low scoring to risk on the field.


Awesome tool this, Trigger. Love how it challenges perceptions on guys like Sandi and Murph who we think of as being injury prone

Supercoach Spud

need hlep plz
and doch or simpson
help with any part of team and $1,111 in bank


Came in at 70% overall.. A few risks but I'm willing to take them in the hope it will elevate me in the ranks


Mine came in at 79%… Happy with that!!


Thanks heaps Trigger! It's such a privilege to have access to these things. I gave it a whirl and came out with 82%. Perhaps my team is a little to Cookie Cutter and needs a few riskier picks.

As follows:

Defense: S. Docherty, A. Rance, R. Laird, E. Vickers-Willis, L. Ryan, B. Long (T. Stewart, J. Smith)

Midfield: P. Dangerfield, S. Pendlebury, J. Kennedy, J. Selwood, N. Fyfe, D. Swallow, J. Berry, S. Powell-Pepper, (D. Myers, J. Pickett, N. Freeman)

Rucks: M. Gawn, A. Sandliands, (L. Strnadica)

Forward: L. Dahlhaus, J, Macrae, J. Gunston, J, Roughead, A. Black, S. Bolton, (B. Jarman, B. Eddy)

Any suggestions will be considered.


My team as it stands would like some feed back have gone slighter down back and other positions except mid because not to many rookies in the mid yet

Docherty, laird, Marchbank
Keefe, sharenberg, Stewart
(Ryan, Hibberd)

Danger, Pendles, JPK, bontempelli
Fyfe, murphy, swallow, Mccluggage
(Freeman, Powell pepper, Bowes )

Gawn, Goldstein

McRae, Dahlhaus, Ryder
McCarthy, black, Pickett
(McKay, eddy)

Finished top 1000 last 2 years would like some thoughts tho cheers


Awesome ranking James but I can't get behind Marchbank at D3. What's your thinking on that one?


I reacon he can average 70-80 enough points from a over priced rookie, until I trade him out early for a premium


Think ive had too many rum cans cant work this out


Got it now

Luskin Star

Great idea. I am a little scared to use it though. With Adams, Gawn, sandi, omeara, swallow, beams, bennell, thurlow, scharenberg, fyfe, rocky, roughy, knight all in my team the spreasheet might blow up.

Supercoach Spud

need hlep plz
and doch or simpson
help with any part of team and $1,111 in bank

Russ in W.A

Myers out for 8 weeks, Pickett's injured too,he had a bad foot injury last season but I don't know if he's redone it. Freeman didn't play tonight either, Eddy looked good, Black might be a better option than Cameron in the fwd line. Berry's just had knee surgery too so…you have some changes to make.
Doch or Simpson?…Simpson is super reliable but Doch is a big improver, can he get even better this year?…maybe, maybe not, either or mate, both good choices.


Sandi seems the main risk in my starting squad. If he goes down pre season/early, the current plan is upgrade Sandi to Goldy and downgrade Hibberd (Melb) at D4 to Vickers-Willis/other Rookie Def. I may hold off and still use the Strnadica swing with Ryder/Cameron. Or I may just put on Higgo's jacket and start signing Psuedo Echo songs…


Great work Trigger, it's obvious that you've gone to a lot of effort in making this. Thanks man!


One of the best articles of the year brilliant work Trigger

Supercoach Spud

Thoughts on shuey


I think Mitchell will take some heat off him…but I don't think he is super premo capable.


Should I go with the safe pick in laird or I was thinking that mills might be able to break out this year, if I pick mills that's saving 100k, what does everyone think??


I know it's only JLT but Mills' performance was incredibly impressive. His composure is outstanding for someone with his experience.

I had 1 mid pricer in Roughy until the swans game. Three midpricers in Heeney, Mills and Jones finding a spot in my post week one version. Will change but all 3 warrant strong consideration.

Russ in W.A

I reckon Mills is a safe bet this season Super..he's gonna be a gun.

The Ranger

Bloody hell Trigger that's a bewdy! Thanks mate!


Looking forward to playing around with this bad boy tomorrow! Your having a massive preseason Trig. Keep it up


And attention identity bandits that have used my alias! The gig is up! Move on muppets!!!


Top 5 mids?
I'm thinking:
1. Danger
2. Pendles
3. Fyfe
4. JPK
5. Selwood




Hi guys, looking at risk v reward, which combo would you prefer?

Prestia- Docherty
Hannerbery- Hibberd (Mel)

Thanks in advance.


Imo hanneberry is the only sure thing of those 4 to replicate his numbers so hanners/hibberd for md


Great SC tool Trigger, I may be a bit conservative, 86% with Gawn/Sandi ruck!!. 13 keepers, Sandi and 16 rooks(which include Knight/Black/Hampton)


Ah man. There goes my Wednesday work day!

Well done Trig.

Aussies R Us

Lads give us some feedback on the supercoach side, would appreciate.
Docherty, Shaw, Adams, Scharenberg, Berry, Spencer
Danger, Pendles, DanHan, Neale, Parker, Treloar, Ward, Fyfe
Mcevoy, Sandilands
Daulhas, Daniel, Black, Butler, Kerr, Jarman

Supercoach Spud

Thoughts On Wingard And Shuey

clock is ticking

yes and no really

neil Demons Delight

Great beneficial work ot art Trig My figures are lower than yours except rucks and I reject Gawns figures Trig Could be wrong but they are too dated did his knee couple times two years back but fine now 22 last year speaks volumes. Personally worried about my low figures mainly forward so will try to rectify that with CADDY Still need to jig his figures.Brilliant stuff mate Cheers Neil


This is some goooood data base Trigger!

What you guys think about B. Murphy:
(45/66 games) risk profile 68%

Currently D4…


Great work Trigger, it certainly gives a compelling view of the team.

I had a play and included the number of rookies in your starting 22 and it can really knock down your Bak/Mid/Fwd/Ruc % if you have too many!!

Don't Blush Baby

Excelled work Mr.Trigger, who do you work for NASA,CSIRO,TRUMP ect ?


Australian rule football an amazing game
AFL Sports news


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