Risky SuperCoach 2017 Business

by TRIGGER HAPPY

Are you a SuperCoach Risk Taker? Risk Adverse? Or somewhere in between?

The only way to know this is to look at your SuperCoach Risk Profile.  If you get your risk profile right you will be smiling like Tom Cruise above but if you get it wrong you may end up paying a high price like poor old Tom when he had to buy back all his parents’ furniture at inflated prices.

So what is your risk profile?

There has to be some calculated risk to get the edge on your competition and other teams but how much is too much?

Is the biggest risk not taking a risk at all?

We can either try risk management according to the cartoon below and hope it doesn’t explode in your face or try and put a bit of science behind it and work out just how much is too much risk?

SuperCoach Risk Management

SuperCoach Player Risk Profile

I have put together a fairly simple risk matrix that puts this into perspective.

I have used the last 3 years as it wouldn’t be a true reflection of risk to use last year only. 3 years is more representative of how risky a player is. All the suspended bombers I have put in zero games played in 2016. This impacts their risk profile but I think this needs to be taken into account as they have not played footy for 12 months so there is risk associated with picking them.

I have used Old Ockers brilliant spreadsheet (a MUST have – get it here & donate to the Great man!) and just tweaked it slightly. The general gist is I have used the games played each year by each player and then divided that by the total games played for that year. I have added two columns both highlighted in blue. The first one is total games played each year. Pretty simple this one. 22 games for the last 3 years excluding the byes. The other is the % of games played per year. This is used to determine your risk profile of a particular player. This is simply the games played per year by a player divided by total number of games. This gives you your risk profile. I have applied a filter to the last 3 years as that is the period that I have focused the risk profile on.

Download my RISK optimised spreadsheet here (must have Excel on a desktop or laptop)

The easiest way to find a player is to click on the player and filter by player in cell A1.

Then in the search box type in the player you are looking for in this case we will use Patrick Dangerfield.

Once you have found the player you want click the ok button. For Danger he has played 65 out of a possible 66 games over the last 3 years and has a risk profile of 98%.

SuperCoach Risk matrix

The risk profile I have set up is follows:

Metrix Legend

So in dangers case you know you can select him with the knowledge he will be there week in and week out.

GET OCKER’S BRILLIANT SUPERCOACH STATS SHEET HERE

Supercoach Team Risk Profile

So that is great for players but what about your team as a whole?

Well you can do this in two ways:

  1. Select all the players in your team by ticking each one under player (Cell A1) (excluding the rookie players who haven’t played a game yet). This will give your teams overall risk profile.
  1. Key in each player’s name and number of games for the last 3 years into the Risk Profile template attached.

Example: Trigger’s Team Risk Profile

Trigs SuperCoach team

Using my team as an example (tab 3 – Trigger’s Team) if you filter on Sam Docherty (as per the instructions above) in Old Ockers worksheet you get the number of games he has played over the last 3 years. In his case he played 22 in 2016 (col B), 19 in 2015 (Col D) and 16 in 2014 (Col F). This shows you the % of games played each year, over the 3 years and gives you the risk profile for each player (col K). In Doc’s case he has a risk profile of 86%. So he only has a moderate chance of missing a game.

If you repeat this process for each player in your team by filling in the template, this will calculate the risk profile of each player, the risk profile of each position and the overall risk profile of your team. This can be found in cell K42.

IF YOU DON’T HAVE THE JOCK SUPERCOACH 2017 MAGAZINE YOU’RE MAD! BUY HERE NOW

Defence.

Risk Profile 78%.  I have chosen to start Taylor Adams who has a risk profile of 67% so he is a pretty risky selection but I have balanced this out with also starting Doc and Laird who have a risk profile over 80%.

Midfield.

Risk Profile 82%. I have deliberately selected highly durable players who are unlikely to miss games as my 5 premos each with a risk profile over 90%. This has allowed me to select Fyfe who is a risky selection but is the only risky premo in my midfield. So I am happy with this calculated risk. Myers is a very risky but selected on the value he presents and purely as a cash cow. If I decided not to start Myers and go with another rookie my midfield risk profile jumps to 90%.

Rucks

Risk profile 69%. The rucks are my riskiest line with Gawn being a risker pick that Sandilands! That really surprised me. Gawn has a lot of injuries early in his career but last year played 22 games for the first time. I’m hoping for a repeat performance but something to bear in mind when selecting Big Maxy.

Forwards

Risk profile 71%. Again this is fairly risky but I have selected a couple of value picks in Roughead and Ryder who didn’t play in 2016. So there is risk in selecting them. As I have a reliable midfield I am happy to take a couple of risks on this line and start them. I will watch Caddy in the preseason as his risk profile is pretty high so might have to bring in a less risky player. Wait and see.

Overall – Risk Profile

Risk Profile – 77%

Note: I have coloured each players risk profile manually in my team. Maybe an excel expert out there may be able to create a formula to use multiple conditional formats to colour the risk profile the right colour depending on where is sits in the risk profile range but this is beyond me. I have however put in a conditional format in the risk profile to highlight the risk profile red if the % is below 50%.

My take on the team risk profile is ideally you should be between 70%-80% to strike the right balance between risky and safe picks.

Between 75%-80% is the ideal balance. You are prepared to take some risk but not too much that it would adversely affect the overall performance of your team.

Over 80% and you are very risk adverse with a low risk of players missing games but may miss out on some value picks that have been discounted due to an injury discount.

Under70% is a risky team like the one below and you should expect to:

  1. Replace a player as they are highly likely to reinjure themselves
  2. May have to field a rookie on field as a player is likely to miss a couple of games with an injury

Triggers Second Team

In my opinion as the team above has risk profile of 60% this would be too risky of team to start with.

Summary.

I realise injuries happen and no one can predict when they are going to hit and what impact they are going to have on your team but at least we can try and minimise the impact by taking a couple of calculated risks but not too many to try and give your team the ideal risk profile and the best chance of success.

Anyway this is just my take and another tool to help you to build your team over the preseason.

Hope this helps and allows you to undertake an informed risky/safe selection strategy.

What is your Risk Profile?

TRIGGER HAPPY

 

GET YOUR JOCK REYNOLDS SUPERCOACH 2017 MAGAZINE HERE!


80 Comments

Daisy · 22/02/2017 at 12:40

Great article Trigger. Am I blind or is there no link to your spreadsheet??

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 12:43

    Thanks Daisy

    you are right. there is meant to be a link above but it links to old ockers spreadsheet.

    The powers to be at JR are working on this and should have the correct link in the article soon.

      jockreynolds · 22/02/2017 at 12:58

      All sorted Daisy & Trigg! I'm an old foool

Damien · 22/02/2017 at 12:41

Am I missing something? Where do you download this?

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 12:44

    bit of an oh dear moment at the back end hopefully the link will be in place soon.

      Damien · 22/02/2017 at 12:45

      Ah, fair enough. All good, I thought I was going blind.

        jockreynolds · 22/02/2017 at 12:58

        Sorted gents – this old fart is a bit slow to the punch sometimes sorry Trigger!

Baps · 22/02/2017 at 13:07

That team is insanely good! No clue how you fit all that under the salary cap, but well done!

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 17:53

    Thanks mate.
    But if work went into it.

Damien · 22/02/2017 at 13:20

It must be known that if you don't have Excel you can download a program called LibreOffice which can open it, and it's free. Available for Mac OS and Linux.

ruckmansYEAR · 22/02/2017 at 13:37

Great stuff with the risk calculator fellas. Looking forward to testing it out tonight!!

    jockreynolds · 22/02/2017 at 14:07

    Bought a tear to the eye Ruck, an absolute RIPPER by Trigger Happy.

      TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 17:55

      Cheers Jock
      Seen a lot of comments on here lately like if I start 5 discounted players is this too many etc?

      Hopefully the ol' risk profile helps to answer some of these questions. 🙂

    Soothsayer · 24/02/2017 at 11:48

    From what I understand about risk analysis, this work captures half of the approach-assessing likelihood, but misses the other half which is consequence. In this context, consequence might be identified as "reward" and therefore this likelihood should be balanced with the reward to be really useful. A good risk analysis would then indicate that a player with high risk of injury but high reward (e.g. Fyfe, Rockliffe) would be seen differently to a player with high risk and moderate reward. Also a player with moderate risk and high reward would score better than a player with low risk and moderate reward. I wonder if expanding this tool to consider reward might not make this a truly awesome SC tool. JR categories such as burnman, no hair downstair and marshmallow-on-stick may be useful consequence items to include.

      Soothsayer · 24/02/2017 at 15:03

      On reflection, this approach applies to premium v low cost rookes. Whilst we consider the slower accumulation of cash for premium rookies, we must also look at the consequence to our on-field scoring. If we can get premium rookies that get us 70-80 pts on field then they are still preferable over cheap rookies putting away at 30-50 on the bench and too low scoring to risk on the field.

Kev · 22/02/2017 at 15:18

Awesome tool this, Trigger. Love how it challenges perceptions on guys like Sandi and Murph who we think of as being injury prone

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 17:58

    Thanks Mate

    Yeah few surprises there.

    Zach Touhy rolling at 100% last 3 years.

Supercoach Spud · 22/02/2017 at 16:18

Backs=Doch,,Laird,Adams,Scharenburg,Newman,Ryan,Vickers-Wills,Stewart,
Mids=Danger,JPK,Pendles,Gray,Shuey,Fyfe,SPP,Myers,Berry,Graham,Freeman,
Rucks=Gawn,Sandi,Strnadica,
Fwds=JK,Dalhouse,Ryder,Roughead,Picket,Eddy,Smith,Camreeon,
need hlep plz
and doch or simpson
help with any part of team and $1,111 in bank

Jacob · 22/02/2017 at 16:27

Came in at 70% overall.. A few risks but I'm willing to take them in the hope it will elevate me in the ranks

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 18:01

    That's good mate you have a strategy couple that with some aggressive trading and you will be in the thick of it.

    Wondering if anyone was using it. Phew. All good.

Sarah · 22/02/2017 at 16:50

Mine came in at 79%… Happy with that!!

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 18:02

    Right in the meaty curve. Nice.

Rambos_Radish · 22/02/2017 at 17:00

Thanks heaps Trigger! It's such a privilege to have access to these things. I gave it a whirl and came out with 82%. Perhaps my team is a little to Cookie Cutter and needs a few riskier picks.

As follows:

Defense: S. Docherty, A. Rance, R. Laird, E. Vickers-Willis, L. Ryan, B. Long (T. Stewart, J. Smith)

Midfield: P. Dangerfield, S. Pendlebury, J. Kennedy, J. Selwood, N. Fyfe, D. Swallow, J. Berry, S. Powell-Pepper, (D. Myers, J. Pickett, N. Freeman)

Rucks: M. Gawn, A. Sandliands, (L. Strnadica)

Forward: L. Dahlhaus, J, Macrae, J. Gunston, J, Roughead, A. Black, S. Bolton, (B. Jarman, B. Eddy)

Any suggestions will be considered.

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 18:08

    No worries mate. Glad i could help.
    looks like a pretty good mix to me must have a few durable blokes to offset the riskier picks.
    I've taken Myers out if my team as he is again injured (29% the numbers don't lie) and my overall R.P has jumped to 80%.

      Kev · 22/02/2017 at 19:26

      Would reconsider Rance mate. With only 3 premo's you want none of them under an injury cloud.

James · 22/02/2017 at 17:27

My team as it stands would like some feed back have gone slighter down back and other positions except mid because not to many rookies in the mid yet

Docherty, laird, Marchbank
Keefe, sharenberg, Stewart
(Ryan, Hibberd)

Danger, Pendles, JPK, bontempelli
Fyfe, murphy, swallow, Mccluggage
(Freeman, Powell pepper, Bowes )

Gawn, Goldstein
(Strandica)

McRae, Dahlhaus, Ryder
McCarthy, black, Pickett
(McKay, eddy)

Finished top 1000 last 2 years would like some thoughts tho cheers

    Kev · 22/02/2017 at 19:29

    Awesome ranking James but I can't get behind Marchbank at D3. What's your thinking on that one?

      James · 22/02/2017 at 19:57

      I reacon he can average 70-80 enough points from a over priced rookie, until I trade him out early for a premium

Laird Lad Donuts · 22/02/2017 at 17:28

Thoughts on my team community?
DEF- Doc, Adams, Mills, Vickers-willis, Guthrie, Watson
MID- Danger. Pendles, JPK, Trealor, Cognilio, Fyfe, SPP
RUCK- Ryder, Sandi
FOWARDS- Dahl, Macrae, Heeney, Roughy, Black, Miles

    Laird Lad Donuts · 22/02/2017 at 17:39

    And sidebottom in the mids

      hedski · 22/02/2017 at 20:20

      Lotsa pies there

    Aussies R Us · 22/02/2017 at 22:43

    gay af

Whats up Doc? · 22/02/2017 at 17:33

Can anyone give me some feedback on my team so far not sure if i should stick with it or change it up but so far this is what ive come up with

DEF- Doc, Simmo, Adams, Vickers-Willis, Guthrie, Watson
MID- Danger, Pendles, Gaz, JPK, Trealor, Rocky, Coniglio, Fyfe
RUCKS- Ryder, Sandi
FWD- Dahl, Roughy, Black, Pickett, Miles, Daicos

Thanks community

    Dukes · 22/02/2017 at 17:57

    Interesting structure. But i think you need to downgrade a mid and get gawn in the rucks and shift ryder forward

    Aussies R Us · 22/02/2017 at 22:44

    gay af

Krups · 22/02/2017 at 17:52

Think ive had too many rum cans cant work this out

    Krups · 22/02/2017 at 17:57

    Got it now

Luskin Star · 22/02/2017 at 18:22

Great idea. I am a little scared to use it though. With Adams, Gawn, sandi, omeara, swallow, beams, bennell, thurlow, scharenberg, fyfe, rocky, roughy, knight all in my team the spreasheet might blow up.

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 18:26

    As the old Split Enz song goes ….

    I see red, I see red, I see red ….. 🙂

      Laird Lad Donuts · 22/02/2017 at 22:40

      best comment ever ahahaha

Supercoach Spud · 22/02/2017 at 18:30

Backs=Doch,,Laird,Adams,Scharenburg,Newman,Ryan,Vickers-Wills,Stewart,
Mids=Danger,JPK,Pendles,Gray,Shuey,Fyfe,SPP,Myers,Berry,Graham,Freeman,
Rucks=Gawn,Sandi,Strnadica,
Fwds=JK,Dalhouse,Ryder,Roughead,Picket,Eddy,Smith,Camreeon,
need hlep plz
and doch or simpson
help with any part of team and $1,111 in bank

    Russ in W.A · 24/02/2017 at 03:21

    Myers out for 8 weeks, Pickett's injured too,he had a bad foot injury last season but I don't know if he's redone it. Freeman didn't play tonight either, Eddy looked good, Black might be a better option than Cameron in the fwd line. Berry's just had knee surgery too so…you have some changes to make.
    Doch or Simpson?…Simpson is super reliable but Doch is a big improver, can he get even better this year?…maybe, maybe not, either or mate, both good choices.

Rivo · 22/02/2017 at 18:39

Sandi seems the main risk in my starting squad. If he goes down pre season/early, the current plan is upgrade Sandi to Goldy and downgrade Hibberd (Melb) at D4 to Vickers-Willis/other Rookie Def. I may hold off and still use the Strnadica swing with Ryder/Cameron. Or I may just put on Higgo's jacket and start signing Psuedo Echo songs…

Cromagnon · 22/02/2017 at 18:57

Great work Trigger, it's obvious that you've gone to a lot of effort in making this. Thanks man!

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 20:19

    Thanks crom

    The way I figure it is if I can create something that helps out this great community and maybe just gives them the edge and helps them to the Holy grail – job done.

richard · 22/02/2017 at 19:11

One of the best articles of the year brilliant work Trigger

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 20:21

    Richard it's comments like that is why I love this community

    My pleasure mate.

Supercoach Spud · 22/02/2017 at 19:19

Thoughts on shuey

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 20:26

    Definitely a pod.

    Not sure how mitch and no nic nat will impact him. Hopefully JLT may give us some answers.

      Supercoach Spud · 22/02/2017 at 20:31

      cheers

    Randomcliche2 · 22/02/2017 at 22:51

    I think Mitchell will take some heat off him…but I don't think he is super premo capable.

Super · 22/02/2017 at 19:42

Should I go with the safe pick in laird or I was thinking that mills might be able to break out this year, if I pick mills that's saving 100k, what does everyone think??

    Northerner · 22/02/2017 at 21:48

    I know it's only JLT but Mills' performance was incredibly impressive. His composure is outstanding for someone with his experience.

    I had 1 mid pricer in Roughy until the swans game. Three midpricers in Heeney, Mills and Jones finding a spot in my post week one version. Will change but all 3 warrant strong consideration.

    Russ in W.A · 24/02/2017 at 03:24

    I reckon Mills is a safe bet this season Super..he's gonna be a gun.

The Ranger · 22/02/2017 at 20:11

Bloody hell Trigger that's a bewdy! Thanks mate!

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 20:23

    Onya Ranger

    Hopefully can use her to full advantage

INPieman · 22/02/2017 at 20:33

Looking forward to playing around with this bad boy tomorrow! Your having a massive preseason Trig. Keep it up

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 20:37

    Thought we agreed on a picture of Bucks as your icon? Haha

    Love it pieman. Nice peanut removal.

    Cheers mate.

      INPieman · 22/02/2017 at 20:40

      Subject to change Trig as my anger of Buckley grows. Trigger Happy needs a Dirty Harry pic or Arne in Predator with his Medi Gun

INPieman · 22/02/2017 at 20:37

And attention identity bandits that have used my alias! The gig is up! Move on muppets!!!

BDC · 22/02/2017 at 21:01

Top 5 mids?
I'm thinking:
1. Danger
2. Pendles
3. Fyfe
4. JPK
5. Selwood

    Randomcliche2 · 22/02/2017 at 22:57

    Gaz>Jelwood

Andrew · 22/02/2017 at 21:37

Hi guys, looking at risk v reward, which combo would you prefer?

Prestia- Docherty
Hannerbery- Hibberd (Mel)

Thanks in advance.

    Dukes · 22/02/2017 at 22:08

    Imo hanneberry is the only sure thing of those 4 to replicate his numbers so hanners/hibberd for md

Kevan · 22/02/2017 at 22:28

Great SC tool Trigger, I may be a bit conservative, 86% with Gawn/Sandi ruck!!. 13 keepers, Sandi and 16 rooks(which include Knight/Black/Hampton)

throttlefinger · 22/02/2017 at 22:31

Ah man. There goes my Wednesday work day!

Well done Trig.

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 22/02/2017 at 23:09

    Time well spent Throtts.

Aussies R Us · 22/02/2017 at 23:01

Lads give us some feedback on the supercoach side, would appreciate.
DEF)
Docherty, Shaw, Adams, Scharenberg, Berry, Spencer
MID)
Danger, Pendles, DanHan, Neale, Parker, Treloar, Ward, Fyfe
RUC)
Mcevoy, Sandilands
FWD)
Daulhas, Daniel, Black, Butler, Kerr, Jarman

Supercoach Spud · 23/02/2017 at 06:18

Thoughts On Wingard And Shuey

    clock is ticking · 23/02/2017 at 10:36

    yes and no really

neil Demons Delight · 23/02/2017 at 13:58

Great beneficial work ot art Trig My figures are lower than yours except rucks and I reject Gawns figures Trig Could be wrong but they are too dated did his knee couple times two years back but fine now 22 last year speaks volumes. Personally worried about my low figures mainly forward so will try to rectify that with CADDY Still need to jig his figures.Brilliant stuff mate Cheers Neil

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 24/02/2017 at 16:59

    Thanks
    Only problem with using the history is that a player may be injured early now got over that injury so skews the results slightly. I guess it does highlight the rebus an injury history and really shows if that is constant.
    Just another tool but the kudos go to old ocker for putting the database together.

Royals · 23/02/2017 at 14:05

This is some goooood data base Trigger!

What you guys think about B. Murphy:
(45/66 games) risk profile 68%

Currently D4…

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 24/02/2017 at 16:55

    Cheers

    Bob started I'm my side drifted out but as mid rooks are pretty scarce on the ground may have to bring in swallow so Bob may get a gig.
    wanna see how he goes next two JLT games. First one just rolling the arm over.

JEL · 23/02/2017 at 19:21

Great work Trigger, it certainly gives a compelling view of the team.

I had a play and included the number of rookies in your starting 22 and it can really knock down your Bak/Mid/Fwd/Ruc % if you have too many!!

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 24/02/2017 at 16:52

    Cheers Jel.
    Hopefully another tool you can use to your advantage

Don't Blush Baby · 23/02/2017 at 19:41

Excelled work Mr.Trigger, who do you work for NASA,CSIRO,TRUMP ect ?

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 24/02/2017 at 16:51

    Thanks DBB
    Classified. 🙂
    I could tell you but then I'd have to kill you.

Aneeza · 10/05/2017 at 22:07

Australian rule football an amazing game
AFL Sports news

Abdul_Haquef · 26/12/2018 at 21:40

You’ve got done a wonderful job. I will certainly dig it and personally, recommend to my buddies. Thanks for the wonderful read. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, fantastic blog! bestbatterypoweredleafblower

Comments are closed.