Risky SuperCoach Business
by TRIGGER HAPPY
Are you a SuperCoach Risk Taker? Risk Adverse? Or somewhere in between?
The only way to know this is to look at your SuperCoach Risk Profile. If you get your risk profile right you will be smiling like Tom Cruise above but if you get it wrong you may end up paying a high price like poor old Tom when he had to buy back all his parents’ furniture at inflated prices.
So what is your risk profile?
There has to be some calculated risk to get the edge on your competition and other teams but how much is too much?
Is the biggest risk not taking a risk at all?
We can either try risk management according to the cartoon below and hope it doesn’t explode in your face or try and put a bit of science behind it and work out just how much is too much risk?
SuperCoach Player Risk Profile
I have put together a fairly simple risk matrix that puts this into perspective.
I have used the last 3 years as it wouldn’t be a true reflection of risk to use last year only. 3 years is more representative of how risky a player is. All the suspended bombers I have put in zero games played in 2016. This impacts their risk profile but I think this needs to be taken into account as they have not played footy for 12 months so there is risk associated with picking them.
I have used Old Ockers brilliant spreadsheet (a MUST have – get it here & donate to the Great man!) and just tweaked it slightly. The general gist is I have used the games played each year by each player and then divided that by the total games played for that year. I have added two columns both highlighted in blue. The first one is total games played each year. Pretty simple this one. 22 games for the last 3 years excluding the byes. The other is the % of games played per year. This is used to determine your risk profile of a particular player. This is simply the games played per year by a player divided by total number of games. This gives you your risk profile. I have applied a filter to the last 3 years as that is the period that I have focused the risk profile on.
Download my RISK optimised spreadsheet here (must have Excel on a desktop or laptop)
The easiest way to find a player is to click on the player and filter by player in cell A1.
Then in the search box type in the player you are looking for in this case we will use Patrick Dangerfield.
Once you have found the player you want click the ok button. For Danger he has played 65 out of a possible 66 games over the last 3 years and has a risk profile of 98%.
The risk profile I have set up is follows:
So in dangers case you know you can select him with the knowledge he will be there week in and week out.
Supercoach Team Risk Profile
So that is great for players but what about your team as a whole?
Well you can do this in two ways:
- Select all the players in your team by ticking each one under player (Cell A1) (excluding the rookie players who haven’t played a game yet). This will give your teams overall risk profile.
- Key in each player’s name and number of games for the last 3 years into the Risk Profile template attached.
Example: Trigger’s Team Risk Profile
Using my team as an example (tab 3 – Trigger’s Team) if you filter on Sam Docherty (as per the instructions above) in Old Ockers worksheet you get the number of games he has played over the last 3 years. In his case he played 22 in 2016 (col B), 19 in 2015 (Col D) and 16 in 2014 (Col F). This shows you the % of games played each year, over the 3 years and gives you the risk profile for each player (col K). In Doc’s case he has a risk profile of 86%. So he only has a moderate chance of missing a game.
If you repeat this process for each player in your team by filling in the template, this will calculate the risk profile of each player, the risk profile of each position and the overall risk profile of your team. This can be found in cell K42.
— Brooke H (@chookie94) February 21, 2017
Risk Profile 78%. I have chosen to start Taylor Adams who has a risk profile of 67% so he is a pretty risky selection but I have balanced this out with also starting Doc and Laird who have a risk profile over 80%.
Risk Profile 82%. I have deliberately selected highly durable players who are unlikely to miss games as my 5 premos each with a risk profile over 90%. This has allowed me to select Fyfe who is a risky selection but is the only risky premo in my midfield. So I am happy with this calculated risk. Myers is a very risky but selected on the value he presents and purely as a cash cow. If I decided not to start Myers and go with another rookie my midfield risk profile jumps to 90%.
Risk profile 69%. The rucks are my riskiest line with Gawn being a risker pick that Sandilands! That really surprised me. Gawn has a lot of injuries early in his career but last year played 22 games for the first time. I’m hoping for a repeat performance but something to bear in mind when selecting Big Maxy.
Risk profile 71%. Again this is fairly risky but I have selected a couple of value picks in Roughead and Ryder who didn’t play in 2016. So there is risk in selecting them. As I have a reliable midfield I am happy to take a couple of risks on this line and start them. I will watch Caddy in the preseason as his risk profile is pretty high so might have to bring in a less risky player. Wait and see.
Overall – Risk Profile
Risk Profile – 77%
Note: I have coloured each players risk profile manually in my team. Maybe an excel expert out there may be able to create a formula to use multiple conditional formats to colour the risk profile the right colour depending on where is sits in the risk profile range but this is beyond me. I have however put in a conditional format in the risk profile to highlight the risk profile red if the % is below 50%.
My take on the team risk profile is ideally you should be between 70%-80% to strike the right balance between risky and safe picks.
Between 75%-80% is the ideal balance. You are prepared to take some risk but not too much that it would adversely affect the overall performance of your team.
Over 80% and you are very risk adverse with a low risk of players missing games but may miss out on some value picks that have been discounted due to an injury discount.
Under70% is a risky team like the one below and you should expect to:
- Replace a player as they are highly likely to reinjure themselves
- May have to field a rookie on field as a player is likely to miss a couple of games with an injury
In my opinion as the team above has risk profile of 60% this would be too risky of team to start with.
I realise injuries happen and no one can predict when they are going to hit and what impact they are going to have on your team but at least we can try and minimise the impact by taking a couple of calculated risks but not too many to try and give your team the ideal risk profile and the best chance of success.
Anyway this is just my take and another tool to help you to build your team over the preseason.
Hope this helps and allows you to undertake an informed risky/safe selection strategy.
What is your Risk Profile?