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Supercoach 2017 Fixture Ticker

Published by Jock on

G’day community, no doubt you have all got your JR mag and are knee deep in the solid gold that is provided within, hopefully propelling one of us to victory.

But let’s not stop there. We work hard here at the Seaford sweatshop, constantly trying to give you up to date info and analysis that you just can’t get elsewhere. And with that in mind I’m chuffed to present you with the JR 2017 season ticker.

“Whaaaa?” I hear you say.

Well ladies and gents, it is the 2017 fixture tabled up and colour coded with difficulty ratings.

  • I’ve plonked HOME games in CAPS and away fixtures in lower case. “**” means China. Remember that? Kochy was pitching a tent when he announced it, while most of us went “whaaaa?”. But unlike explaining the rules of AFL to a Chinese national, my colour code rating system is simple:
  • Green is favourable, Blue is slightly favourable, White is neutral. Light red is tricky, Red is Difficult.

GAVEDAY WAS ANOTHER STAR OF THE COMMUNITY SERIES – ALMOST 100 2017 OPTIONS ANALYSED HERE

I should also go into the formula I used

..which has a small amount of improv involved. I took 2016’s final standings (meaning Hawthorn weren’t considered top 4) and divided those teams into groups of 4. From there I made assumptions like top tier sides will smash bottom tier ones.

For example I think anyone playing the Dogs or GWS is in for a bad time. Or Brisbane at home is a winnable game for most. Teams like the Dees, Pies, Tiges and Saints are all in the same tier and don’t have a significant home ground advantage, therefore they attract a neutral difficulty rating when playing each other. I’ve also down or upgraded ratings depending on HOME and away status. Venues and dates are not included. I’m a father of 2 and potentially a single father of 2 after the time I’ve put into this already! (But I’m not ruling out updating it season prior.)

 

GAVEDAYS-TICKER

PODCAST: JOCK, CROUCHING & HIGGO, NEW EPISODES EVERY TUESDAY

Lastly, for the colour blind of you out there, I’ve written a brief blurb surmising each team’s year.

Enjoy!

Adelaide – have a great run that starts with showdown in rd3 and ends with freo at home in rd10. Another decent stretch between 17 and 21 but the last 2 games of the season are SYD at home and WC away.

Brisbane – kitten gloves in the first 4 rounds before the reality hits. Lots of tough outings, travel sickness an issue.

Carlton – Great first 5, worthy to note they also have 9 Sunday games, might go winless from round 15 till season’s end.

Pies – Bucks could well and truly be under the pump early with nowhere to hide till round 10. Last 8 games are on Sundays. Significant for the loophole.

Essendon – in Melbourne a lot early and no top 4 opposition in the first 7. Hawks in rd 1 though.

Freo – Loophole champions, freo fans have Friday night as “movie night” locked in for 2017. GC, syd, RICH, ess in the last 4 make their assets notable post bye.

Geelong – Great start with very few tests pre bye then they get the acid tests.

Gold Coast – Plays 5 top 8 sides in the first 8. This ain’t no holiday! Great song. Also, they only have 2 home games in the last 6 rounds.

GWS – First game they play at the G is round 18. However they have perceivably the toughest draw in the comp, playing the other top 4 sides twice. Rounds 7 to 14 look good with a mixed bag for the last 4.

Hawks – Soft start. Post bye the next 6 are tricky. Favourable fixtures rd 3-9 and 20-22 but ending the season up against the Dogs.

Melbourne – First 7 in VIC. Last 3 at the G. Great news for season ticket holders on Mt. Hotham.

Nth – Tough start but softens before the bye. 13 games at Etihad is “noice”. Fairly decent last 6 games.

Port – WTF? China? Really? You’ve ruined Supercoach with this banana skin. I hate you. But as fixtures goes there’s a real bag of mixed lollies for the power – particularly after the bye.

Richmond – Winnable games in the first month should see Hardwick sacked. The games after Round 18 should see his predecessor sacked by round 23. (* I actually like Dimma, I hope I’m wrong.)

Sainters – Very nice last 10 with only 3 tough matchups in my book. Jack Billings has firmed as my mid year trade target.

The Bloods – Looks like they’ll get a good run of wins between rounds 6 and 16, but they play the Hawks at home, then get the bye, followed by the dogs at home in that run. Play Carlton in rd 23. Despite the pre finals bye I’d be wary of “knocks” and “twinges” affecting your GF side.

WCE – pretty good first 3 then a mind boggling 5 day break where they’ll meet the swans at Subi when they get home. Decent run in rounds 14 to 21.

Bullies – Excellent run home. Rounds 13 to 20 should be undefeated, the crows may spoil this party though. Reckon they’ll go back to back too. Just sayin’.

GAVEDAY @GAVEDAY

 

 DISCOVERED OCKER’S ULTIMATE SC STATS SPREADSHEET YET? YOU NEED TO GET RIGHT ONTO THIS RIPPER HERE!

 

 


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Great writeup Gaveday, hope this doesn't result in you becoming a single parent lol.

Danners

A piece of brilliance Gaveday!

Bill

I would love peoples thoughts on my team i don't know where I can improve.

BACKS : Docherty, Shaw, Laird, Scharenberg, Hibberd, Ryan (Stewart, Long)

MIDS: Danger, Pendlebury, J.P Kennedy ,Sloane, Bontempelli, Fyfe, Powell-Pepper, Myers (Picket, Freeman, Graham)

RUCKS: Gawn, Grundy (Strnadica)

FWDS: Macrae, Heeney, Roughead, McCluggage, Bowes, Bolton (Rioli, Eddy)

Got $38 leftover

I N Pieman

Also a single parent of 2 young lads Gave. Fear not my friend. Download Tinder & begin your rampage. Cracking piece by the way. Certainty bookmarking that as a reference not only for initial selections but also trade in targets during the season. Brilliant stuff

Gaveday

Cheers fella. Hopefully it helps me improve this year too. Bloody hope so!

Patch

Lovely stuff mate! I've compiled that into a list, where green = 2, blue =1, pink = -1 and red = -2 to find the overall scores for each club (because I have an unhealthy obsession with lists)

CLUB: TOTAL / PRE-BYE / POST BYE

HAW: 17 / 15 / 2
GEE: 15 / 13 / 2
WBD: 14 / 4 / 10
ADE: 12 / 12 / 0
SYD: 11 / 6 / 5
GWS: 10 / 8 / 2
MEL: 6 / 0 / 6
WCE: -1 / -2 / 1
NTH: -3 / -4 / 1
PTA: -3 / -3* / 0
STK: -8 / -9 / 1
COLL: -11 / -7 / -4
FRE: -11 / -5 / -6
RICH: -14 / -6 /-8
GCS: -16 / -10* / -6
ESS: -21 / -15 / -7
BRL: -21 / -8 / 13
CAR: -26 / -8 / -18

The thing I love about this is that it's not a track of wins/losses, but about the intensity of the game, which means some players will stand up in tough games – most of our premos will do that, but flat track bullies or speculative picks might get off the chain in green patches – Buddy Franklin post bye could go bananas. Beautiful stuff mate!

Derek

so what your saying patch, is that my selection of Cyril as a massive POD could be a stroke of genius? or is it just my Congative Bias talking 😉

Duffer

Heads up that there's a couple errors in the port fixture. The final game against Gold Coast is at home as is the game against Hawthorn which got autocorrected out of caps I assume.

Great work though will be using this!

Tjd

Hey guys, off topic for the fixture but I've been having a quick look through Tom rockliffs stats- extremely impressive when he gets a few games stringed together. Let's say he doesn't get injured and therefore would be a very nice selection but I came across a big concern, all massive scores have been when Dayne Beams was not playing and it seems to be he doesn't score as well when beams is playing.

Anyone got some input or thoughts on the Rockliff selection?

Derek

i struck him off my list months ago, so haven't considered him for 1 second. massive risk for that price

hedski

I noticed Beams has the big red line next to his name again when I was tinkering today….injured again?
I didn't look into it cos i won't pick him.
(I have Rocky in ATM)
3rd edit to this post, MASSIVE again Gaveday, tip my hat to ya, cheers

Stirlsy

Dayne Beams (knee, TBC): Beams has taken longer than expected to recover from his knee surgery, but has been running strongly for weeks. He should be integrated into full training sometime in the coming weeks, although a return date is still up in the air.
There you go Hedski

hedski

Line thru Beams for sure, nice one Stirlsy

Kev

Definite upgrade target for mine. He comes home bloody strong

BCHawks

Great article Gaveday. WBD have a great run after their bye, will be a great time to pick up Bontempelli cheap.

50_Shades

Top stuff Gavo! Bought a tear to the eye mate. Not just for the effort you've put in but also because the finished product reminds me a quilt my nan knitted for me when I was a young fella.

I wonder how this might look if Higgo overlaid his rankings of teams for 2017?

Derek

It is a sensational effort. Well done sir.

I was given something very simiar for the EPL this year. Very complicated spreadsheet that i was trying to use for the AFL this year but just didn't have the computer skills to convert, so i had done somthing similar on a piece of paper (did the same last year). I added in a few other factors like interstate travel and less than 6 day breaks. I'll sit down over the weekend and compare the outcomes and let you know what i have discovered.

Gaveday

Cheers. I didn't include six day break info or G and Etihad variances for melbourne clubs just yet, might update the list prior to rd 1. This ones very much in beta mode.

Keenbutclueless

Nick Riewoldt. One of the justifications for picking him has been that he averaged 116 or 117 at Etihad last year and 12 of his first 16 games are at Etihad in 2017.
1. Does that mean you would trade him at around 17?
2. Does this analysis show that with St Kilda's tough early draw, that any advantage of Etihad is dissipated?
3. Even if there draw opens up post bye, the fact that are predominantly NOT at Etihad reduce his appeal even post bye?
This is not an anti Roo rant, but I think if you are going to pick the most expensive forward in the competition you would want a tailwind not a headwind

Jib_Jib

Every year I think Roo is over the hill, every year I get egg on my face. I heard that marks on a lead are going to receive increased points this year (5?). If so could be something worth considering as he has been in the top 2 for average marks 9 out of the last 11 seasons. Don't know if this helps you or just muddies the waters further.

Keenbutclueless

Muddies the waters! Trying to convince myself why I shouldn't pick him!

Jib_Jib

Ok well in answer to your specific questions:

1. If he's averaging 117 at round 17 I would keep him. I'd just apply the same rules re trading as I would for any other player (3 weeks low scores etc.).
2. The analysis show's StKs got a tough early draw based on team performances in 2016. It's a great tool but if you're looking into this much you should also consider how much StK and their early opponents have strengthened/weakened over the off season and how that may effect St Nick's scoring.
3. If he's in strong form with a soft draw venue wouldn't concern me too much, especially if he's playing against teams with nothing to play for in the final weeks. Look at what he did to Brisbane in rd 23.

The real question about him, in my opinion, is tooth length. Do you think he has it in him to smash out another elite season or is this year his Pavlich year? Everything else is peripheral.

Keenbutclueless

Thanks for taking the time on this Jib. Much appreciated. It's solid advice. Is competing with Macrae for a spot on my team. Dogs round 11 bye plus post bye draw and the feeling that Macrae will be a solid 90-95 but maybe not too much, makes a 100-105 with high early points from StNick more tempting. If he goes big early then getting him late is harder. And if I have a few luxury trades left at Round 17 or so, then might consider trading him if a late bloomer appears.

Jib_Jib

No worries that's what we're all here for right?

I think you should just trust your gut and roll the dice on him. Worst case scenario you have to do a corrective. Not ideal but not the end of the world.

Derek

The 5pts for a mark on a lead came in last year

Jib_Jib

First I heard of it was on a thread a couple of days ago! Better late than never I guess.

mike

Feedback on my team guys pull it apart gang . 

Backs: Docherty ,Shaw,JJ,Keefe,L.Ryan ,T.Stewart. 
(M.Spencer ,M .Hinge) 

Mids: Danger, Pendals, J.Kennedy, D.Hannebery, N.Fyfe, D.Beams ,Powel-Pepper, D.Myers. 
(N..Freeman ,C.Brown,B.Grewar) 

Rucks. Gawn ,Martin 
(Strnadica) 

Forwards: Dahlhaus,T.Green, Heeney,Roughead,J.Pickett,T.Smith. 

(B.Eddy, S.Murry) 

Projected Score 1810 

Note: Rookies to change in the coming weeks . 

$3400. Left in the kitty

The Ranger

Love ya work Gaveday, thanks mate.

The Ranger

Jeez the more I look at that chart the more I think Roughhead is a no brainer up until the byes at least.

Keenbutclueless

I was a 75% chance of picking Titchell. This analysis makes it closer to 90%.

Derek

JOM did ok in the Hawks intra during the week just quietly

Derek

5pts got mark on s lead, 3.5pts for a goal assist. I think Roughie will score ok. Just worried about his TOG coming back from s long break. The Hawks have Tyrone up there now.

I think he will do ok early and tear it up after the buys.

Kevan

Terrific stuff Gaveday. Will be using this to help me direct my trades.

The Ranger

Sod it Jock! I'm just gonna throw this out there on a late night post because it's been bugging me all week.
I've been playing this magnificent game for a while now and been a keen JR Community Member too and having come late to this preseason I'm concerned that the community is placing too much emphasis on names and not enough on structure.
McCluggage this, Beams that, Swallow maybe…
Forgive me if I'm oversimplifying things but at this stage of the season there is only three names you need to be thinking about.
In order…
Keeper.
Rookie.
Gamble.
If they are not a keeper or a rookie you intend to exploit purely for the financial benefit then they are a gamble.
For mine, the preseason is all about sorting your team into a structure that you are clear about and are confident will perform in a way you have predicted.

Gaveday

It's a bit hard to finalise your team without round 1 team sheets! Structure or not. Too many unverified rooks priced between 210k and 102k ATM.

The Ranger

As always eh?

throttlefinger

It's sort of the cruel irony of SC. You can do all this planning and team versioning yet it can all go in a scrap heap once Round 1 teams are announced. At least there's no sub rule to curtail some of the agony.

Incredible work, Gaveday!

SCaddict

Absolutely agree Ranger. At this stage I'm not attached to that many players, maybe half a dozen locks at most. So much can happen in the next 6 weeks to become too fixated on particular players or even structures imo.

Flexibility and adaptability is paramount this time of year as is the ability to take onboard group thinking without being too restricted by it. For there is still a ton of value in partaking in the prevailing wisdom of the community right now.

The Ranger

Spot on SC. Research is great but clarity is key.

Derek

I think it is very important to put names to your premiums.

I like to pick my best 22 now. I know I can't start them all but look for things like value, their draw, byes, available rookies on same line, fitness level, injury concerns etc as to who will be in my starting team.

Have to be clear with best 22 first. All the rest are cash cows.

You are right about rookies though, I will rely on the community to find them

Saintsfan

Bit stiff on the great saints, gaveday

Gaveday

I love what richo's done with the saints – but when it came to deciding on a formula they were in the 3rd tier. So it's a mountain for them – originally I was grading like tipping, but decided that this would cause way too much angst. The tier system prevailed. I was tempted to put all red for Nth as I think they'll be rubbish and make it more difficult for WC without Nic nat but it was too subjective.

Jack

dog

gaveday

you spelt god wrong

Bill

Can I get some advice for this years team cheers lads

BACKS : Docherty, Shaw, Laird, Scharenberg, Hibberd, Ryan (Stewart, Long)

MIDS: Danger, Pendlebury, J.P Kennedy ,Sloane, Bontempelli, Fyfe, Powell-Pepper, Myers (Picket, Freeman, Graham)

RUCKS: Gawn, Grundy (Strnadica)

FWDS: Macrae, Heeney, Roughead, McCluggage, Bowes, Bolton (Rioli, Eddy)

I got $9,700

Derek

It you tried ADAMS instead of Shaw and Troloar instead of Pendlebury you could upgrade Heeney to Dalhaus. Gotta have Dalh.

Gaveday

I'd trade out JPK for Heppel or Dahl.

Tem

Hey guys, would really appreciate the feedback.

first thing first. i have gone for a guns and rooks approach as it is the best structure, however i have 4 mid-pricers, some could be argued but anyways here is the team.

64k in the bank

DEF: Shaw, Adams, Laird, Scharenberg, Hampton, Hibberd (Ryan, Stewart)
MID: Dangerfield, Pendlebury, JPK, Bont, Fyfe, Swallow, SPP, Myers (Barrett, Freeman, Graham)
RUC: Gawn, Ryder (Strnadica)
FWD: Dahalhaus, Macrae, Heeney, Roughead, McCluggage, Black (Pickett, Eddy)

of course rookies are subject to change depending on JLT, injuries and team selection.

i have hampton in there at the moment but i really want to see how he would fit into the adelaide team and what role he would have, i am also considering keefe but 3 collingwood players in one line? bit too many? (go the pies)

i am happy with my mids bar 2 things, the first being i have no dpp's, i would like to maybe move hibberd to the bench, or maybe bring in a berry for the def/mid dpp, and for the fwd/mid dpp maybe bolton or swing pickett and put in rioli for fwd bench. hopefully the rookies sort themselves out. however for my M3 im not sure who to go with, there a plethora of options, the sydney trio, neale, selwood, priddis, sloane, and titchell?

i have selected jpk as he is just class. but so are the other options, but for now i think jpk is the way to go.

i am contempt with my rucks, fine with gawn, taking a slight gamble with ryder but i really do think he can avergage a ton, plus you never know when that dpp will be handy. however if i had to choose between him and stef martin i would take stef, but i dont want to have nothing in the kitty.

forwards are pretty mainstream, however there are not many superstars. however i may try and sneak caddy in there, maybe for macrae? again all depends on JLT.

But there is one thing that i dont understand, with JJK,i am considering him as a viable option, he was thesecond highest scoring forward by total points last year (if i am correct), lets say he were to be top 3 this year, at the end of the day we want final rank so is not better to pick the player with the total points instead of the somewhat consistent player. i understand if people are going for league wins, but i go for ranking as i feel if i go for ranking it boosts my chances of winning the league even more, as was the case for me last year. anyways would really appreciate the feedback. any rookies that im sleeping on please recommend. Thank you

Gaveday

I've gone 3 pies in the back – Keefe will def play. I'd be inclined to have Rocky – 4 good fixtures early and he could go bang. I had Bont but have settled on Dahl instead.

Barret I'm unsure in despite the press.

Tem

my rookies will defintely change according to JLT cup, i think bont has uber premium potential, doesnt need to get 30 disposals to get a ton, needs 20, and he can get a couple goals a game so i think he has so much more potential left in him. i am still unsure on rockliff as he seems a bit injury prone now, i sitll think you cant go wrong with him however i just like bont more, cognitive bias? maybe

Tommo09

Is it too risky to have Scharenberg, Gaz, Fyfe, Beams, Swallow, Sandi, Heeney, Bennell and Rouhy in the one team?

Kev

Bennell is no chance for round 1. Beams is struggling. Gaz is on no contact stuff. Scratch those ones.

Shaz is rookie priced so he's okay if he lines up round 1. Fyfe looks bloody arousing and will be popular, as will Swallow and Rough.

Plenty of discussion re: Sandi in the comments of my team reveal the other day. Could make or break your season

shaun

Great stuff mate

Wighty

Is there still love for Goldy ?? If one rule is stick to players with good pre-seasons to start, he must be a risk.

Derek

my plan is to start with Sandi. After a few weeks we will know how Goldy is going. At his best he picks himself

Derek

toying with the idea of starting Gawn, Sandi in ruck.

No cover in forward line. Knight at F4.

$226k in bank.

It could all go well and Sandi makes some cash, let's me look at Goldy, Grundy and Martin (they might even drop in value) to see who the real R2 is. My cash in bank is a great war chest to upgrade a rookie straight to a premium without painting the fence.

If Sandi gets injured, long term, I have the cash to go Grundy, costs me a trade.

If Sandi is out for only a week or two I can upgrade Knight to Ryder with my cash if Ryder is also looking the goods.

What do you reckon fellas, thanks fellas.

Derek

Simpson, Adams, Laird, Berry, Hibberd, Ryan (Stewart, Ridley)

Dangerfield, Hannerberry, Trelor, JSeleood, Sloane, Fyfe, SPP, Myers (Graham, Bolton, Ronke)

Gawn, Sandi (Strnd)

Dalhaus, McCrea, Cyril, Knight, Pickett, WRioli (Eddy, TSmith)

$226,400 in bank.

SCaddict

That's one way to skin a cat. I'm more a proponent of points on the park with a starting bank sub $100K but each to their own. But financial preferences aside Gawn/Sandi should be a fairly popular starting combo assuming the block of flats is wheeled out for Rd1.

I'm a little surprised you don't have your new toy boy JOM in your line-up after he starred in your intra-club the other day and all those early Hawk green lights in Gaveday''s excellent graphical fixture.

Derek

I saw the highlight, JOM was moving well. Very well.

I'll tell you who else looked like he was ping ok, old Hodgy! Played on JOM a bit, couldn't keep up, but around stoppages he was everywhere.

SCaddict

Hodgey would be an excellent pick if you just could count on him being out there all season. Played 20 games just once in the past 6 years and he aint getting any younger! Missing 1 or 2 games would be perfectly manageable but once that number starts drifting past 3 you really begin to feel the pinch.

I currently have him my AFL Fantasy side as I see the cash upside is probably worth the risk but he's an unlikely starter for me in SC. However if he plays Rd1 (as it looks like he will) I'm sure a fair chunk of Supercoaches will take that gamble.

Derek

Cyril is licking his lips at all those green squares 🙂

James+

Derek i swear to god shutup about rioli the shit dog

Hart_attack

Community league from last yr with 9 spots left to fill
Very competitive
Join the nutcrackers fc on 217907

raff

where can I get a list of all the AFL players and prices and positions

Dee

Brilliant work Jock! Got a lot out of this…. Thanks mate!