Isaac Smith: A Risk v Reward Analysis
Before we get cracking on Isaac today I want to inform the community of a legal stoush over the JR Risk or Reward – O – Meter
..which you’ll remember was definitely not a dreamtime™ stock photo I found on Google from my last Risk v Reward article on Zac Williams.
In between flying all over the country gathering the very best SuperCoach intel in the land and penning the most SuperCoach relevant magazine ever seen in this country (since the 2015 version) Jock Reynolds stood up as my legal advisor and let me tell you, this man is an absolute DEMON in the courtroom.
He went straight up Colonel Jessup and delivered the “you can’t handle the truth” speech with such fire and passion that it resulted in a standing ovation from not only the gallery, but the jury, the bailiff, hell I even saw the Judge wiping away a tear at such a performance. The case was thrown out. I’m still scratching my head as to how that speech was at all relevant, but who am I to question the great man?
Now with that out the way, onto Isaac Smith. Is there a non-Hawthorn supporter among us that doesn’t love him? Responsible for that shank from 35m that started the Hawks demise in 2016, he enters the new season at 440k and has gained MID/FWD DPP. Does he have an upside?
ISAAC SMITH KEY NUMBERS
| 2017 Price: | $440,200 |
| 2017 Position: | MID/FWD |
| Bye Round: | 13 |
| Games 100+ in 2016: | 5 |
| 90-99: | 2 |
| 80-89: | 3 |
| 70-79: | 5 (7 under 70) |
ISAAC SMITH STAT ATTACK
THE SEASONAL POSSESSION O-METER
A lot to take in from the tables above, but in short Isaac Smith has been very consistent over the past 3 years. 75% of the time over a stretch of 64 games he has logged between 20 and 30 possessions. The drop in his SuperCoach average over this time can be explained by a significant rise in clangers. Also, he only managed 9 goals this year after 21 and 16 in 2014 and 2015 respectively. It’s both these areas that need to improve for Smith to bounce back into the 90’s average, so can he do it?
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THE FOR..
No Lewis or Mitchell
I’ll admit my knowledge of Hawthorn extends to barracking against them at every opportunity, so I’m happy to be corrected by more knowledgable supporters here, but I honestly believe Smith will have greater responsibility to lead Hawthorn into a new era. I expect Tom Mitchell to be front and centre, Jaegar is still a kid, Cyril will roll through the middle, but he’s too Special™ to spend all his time there. Hodge’s best position is halfback general. How much will Rough play this year? Then there’s Burgoyne …and kids. There’s been a significant leadership vacuum at the Hawks and Isaac has been given VC duties. He will want to step up.
He’s Underpriced
Smith is priced to average 80.9, if we look at his total average over the past 3 years it sits at 86.8. Using this I have his real price at 472k. With all things being equal and fine and dandy, we can expect Smith to play 21-22 games and average 85-90. Sure, that’s nothing fantastic, but is it really that bad as an F6? Looking at the 6th top priced forward this year, Jack Macrae is 511k after averaging 93.9 last year.
THE AGAINST..
Struggles to go big
The consistency of Isaac Smith is appealing, yet this isn’t AFL fantasy. SuperCoach is judged by more than possessions alone. 18 times he has crossed the 100 mark in his past 64 games.
Midpricers SUCK
Patch’s article on midpricers will be referred to for years to come. Patch, don’t hate me, but I’ve stolen your graph/mathematical geniusness to illustrate my point. A best case scenario for Smith will be to return to his 90 average from 2014. If he manages that his price will see a minimum increase.
You won’t be using Smith as a stepping stone type in 2017, but he should hold his value. Why bother selecting him then? There’s a TON of players below 440k that could breakout. Heeney, Touk, Billings, Acres, Jack Martin, Bennell, Roughy, Hrovat, and a few of the banned Bombers (Langford has been smashing it apparently). If any of those go bang early you can jump on with the knowledge that Smith won’t do anything special to make you regret the trade.
RISK V REWARD – O – METER
Smith has shown enough consistency over the years to be a low risk. His SC average has been dropping off which isn’t ideal, though I think with the Vice-Captaincy and an increase in opportunities at the Hawks this year his average will be on the upswing.
In the same breath, his upswing won’t mean he starts smashing out weekly 100’s.
Till next time – Kev
Get amongst the comments or hit me up on Twitter (@SC_Kev7)
Ripping stuff, Kev! Also aroused by the Hawthorn Void but thinking I'd rather take the plunge on Silk Burgoyne than a young up and comer – if I take that plunge at all.
And never apologise for using that table! That's what that bad boy is there for – and it's there to ward us off taking risks that aren't likely to pay off, and I agree with you that Isaac Smith perfectly fits the bill of a middling selection who will improve, but not enough to come into consideration. Top notch work, Kev!
Cheers, Patch!
A lot of questions around him and Hawthorn as a whole really. I usually don't put too much weight behind preseason games influencing selections but there's a few blokes I will have a close eye on
Who do you think is a good replacement for Sandilands
At 308 grand there is no equivalent replacement.
Starting to get aroused by Nankervis at the Tiges (366k)
Word is Dimma loves him and could seriously knock off Hampson for number #1 ruck duties.
Thanks
I've bitten the bullet and decided i can't start with Sandi. Its a recurring nightmare…TBC…Lobbe…. must end.
Gawn & Grundy for me.
I've looked at all the midfields and Collingwood's is as good as anyones, Grundy will have all the support he needs to be the number 2 ruckman of the AFL this year.
Still don't mind the look of Ryder at F4, just in case.
Will have to downgrade Pridis to Swallow at M6 to find the cash.
Why no love for Goldstein Derek?
News today he's being held back from full training. Confirmed he will miss the first two JLT games
Petrie is gone, which means Daw will be in Norf best 22, finally. Meaning he will be sharing ruck with Goldy. Don't like this arrangement. Must have Lone Wolf rucks
I kinda see Grundy/Stef in a bit of the same light, not quite as big as the Goliaths but their ground work makes up for it a bit.
Stef has the higher ceiling history and no third man up should help.
Agree Grundy has better mid service but I'm leaning towards Stef to bounce back after last year ( he's still only 28 or 29 yo?)
Rucks will be huge.
Ryder/Boyd may be essential in fwds.
There's a bit of love for Stef out in the community. Does anyone know why he had a form slump last season?Was he carrying an injury or was he just suffering from Brisbanitis?
I think he was carrying a few niggles jibba, Steven May knocked him into next year too, massive bump.
Witts is starting to interest me.
I think Smith's role will increase for Hawthorn as the opportunity for him to has really opened up. He's worth a good look and an even better one in the JLT games where we'll get a better idea of his role. Definitely a roughie to start for my squad but could weezle his way in there
I think the departure of Hill is more significant for Smith than Mitchell/Lewis departures.
will Smith get more of the footy or will he be a marked man by opposition teams?
Any thoughts on my team guys
Docherty, Adams, laird, Williams, scharenberg, Ryan, Newman, Stewart
Danger, Pendles, JPK, treloar, Fyfe, swallow, SPP, Myers, berry, Pickett, graham
Gawn, hickey, strndica
Daulhahaus, macrae, Ryder, galluci, Bolton, Rioli, smith, eddy
Thanks guys for your help
Reckon you are one short in the fwd line. Those three onfield rooks look a little light. Feels you have more firepower sitting on your bench in Defence and Mids than you have on the field in the forwards. Think about giving up one defender to bring in another forward.
Jock's comments in this have really resonated with me. Check em out.
Agree that you're too light up forward, could downgrade Williams to a rookie and use that money forward. Other than that your structure is pretty good. All the sides are so speculative at this point (pre-JLT) that there probably isn't much that can be said about your players that hasn't already beed said, so if you're happy with them I'd sit tight and adjust as necessary through the pre-season comp.
Back on topic though, if I am going to plunge on a mid-pricer like Smith, Stephen Hill is more appealing. Played inside mid towards end of last year. Fyfe allegedly training forward and Hill could be buoyed by playing alongside his brother??? Probably not for me though (Smith and Hill).
Good call, seedy. He had the ball on a string for the last month. 32 possessions for 68SC is worrying though!
i find it hard to watch that video, looking at it now, he was alot closer to goal and it was even more directly in front than i remember.
Love these articles Kev. Keep it up. Problem with picking a player like this is priorities. If it doesn't work out & you want to get rid of them there always seems to be other priorities & you get stuck with them for too long. Think Daniel "useless" Rich. There is a case for guns, a case for value, & a case for rookies. Isaac Smith is none of those
Pretty much, Pie. Pretty much. You'll need to be ruthless in trading. Hell I wouldn't hold him till his bye if I start with him. He's there as a placeholder until someone below him breaks out
Cold but true, INP. Feel the same. Love the breakdown and this feature, Kev. Can't wait for the next one.
Thoughts on Caleb Daniel?
Hasnt had a full preseason. Not part of contact training yet because of a shoulder issue. With so many choices, he needs so much going right for him before I would consider. Not this year for me.
Irrelevant but was that supercoach Paige on The Chase tonight ?
It was!
How she go?
I know this is a tough question but on average what do we think the average age for a midfielder is to hit their career max season average. For example JPK averaged 120 when he was 24 years of age and that's been his highest season average since.
Any thoughts? Cheers lads
Could be wrong but I 'm sure I read somewhere that the 7th year is statistically the best for uber premos.
On average of course
I reckon 27.
That's when all the rock legends die, in their prime.
If you have the first Jock magazine there is a great article on this called the mammoth curve.
Unfortunately only have the new testament…..
Sweet.
I have heard mentions of said curve in various threads over last coupla seasons.
If anyone could post a link I'd be keen for a study.
Cheers Derek.
very basically, there is a trend that players scoring reaches its peak around season 8.
season 9 and 10 there will be a slight decline in output, usually still scoring well, but when graphed it shows the improvement has stopped and the decline is obvious. Age is the main factor.
however, a remarkable thing can then occur, in seasons 11 or 12 a players output can increase. It is thought that like the mammoth who faced extinction, the player realizes that his playing days may soon be over and they steel themselves for one last crack at it before fading away.
their sc scoring graph can look like the outline of a mamonth (a rise up the back, a dip at the neck, a rise over the head before falling away down the trunk)
Ah. Nice one. Makes sense now. Thanks.
Joel Selwood looks a classic case.
Starting his 11th season.
77, 98, 110, 117, 111 (injured), 117, 118, 120, 105, 111.
i think one more good season from Joel.
Agree on this one Derek. Joel will be at his best this season. Starting Danger and Joel.
Gold hedski. RIP Jimmy, Jim, Janis etc. Big year in SC coming with Danger and Fyfe approaching peak
Gotta start with both BC.
Who are this year's lock premiums (say 600+), in the mid. Anything other than danger, Coz is he really worth it?
Yes, yes he is.
They are all there for a reason, u can pick them off cheaper but won't hurt to start any of them really (maybe not Gaz)
Pay the price
Yep. I'm shying away from paying in def ATM tho. (Doch, Shaw, Simmo)
yeah, i'll spend on other lines before spending too much on a defender (awful creatures)
The pies intra club had the usual suspects up in lights with one notable exception. The media pulled Josh Diacos aside post match. Scrub him from round 1 & early games, frame too small still. That's logical thinking. But the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. This kid can play
Hey Pieman, I couldn't get to the intra club game, how did De Goey look and where did he line up?
He's on my list of potential break outs this season.
Not a chance I'd start with Smith.
What do u guys think of my team…… and possible improvements:
Def: Docherty, Shaw, Laird, Johannisen, Hampton, Scharenberg (M.Hibberd,L.Ryan)
Mid: Dangerfield, Sloane, Bontempelli, Fyfe, Beams, Powell-Pepper, Myers, Freeman (J.Pickett, J.Foote, J.Graham)
Rucks: Gawn, Sandilands (L.Strnadica)
Fowards: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Heeney, Roughead, McCluggage, Bowes (M.McCarthy, B.Eddy)
Thanks
Ross Kyon has ruled out Bennell for round 1.
Lyon
Just had a watch highlights of Essendon's intra-club game yesterday. From what I understand the team were split into a 1st and 2nd team. Crowd favourite David Myers was in the 2nd team…
It's about this time of year that we start to get concerned that there won't be enough rookie priced players for round 1. They will reveal themselves though, just might not be who we thought.
Indeed.
In better news James Stewart was in the first team.
Was Ridley involved?
I didn't notice him – although I also wasn't looking out for him.
Crazy to go Jelwood over Danger? Just feel Danger won't go as big this year. Maybe slotting forward a bit more?
Crazy.
You just must be bored at work to ask a question like that?
Could be the ultimate POD not to start him. I'm sure I can pick him off for $100k cheaper at some stage. For the record, I'm a massive Danger fan, but this game is essentially about buying and selling at the right price. Head over heart.
Derek and Pieman do you have twitter or something to invite you to a league?
Not touching him
Feedback on my team guys pull it apart gang .
Backs: Docherty ,Shaw,JJ,Keefe,L.Ryan ,T.Stewart.
(M.Spencer ,M .Hinge)
Mids: Danger, Pendals, J.Kennedy, D.Hannebery, N.Fyfe, D.Beams ,Powel-Pepper, D.Myers.
(N..Freeman ,C.Brown,B.Grewar)
Rucks. Gawn ,Martin
(Strnadica)
Forwards: Dahlhaus,T.Green, Heeney,Roughead,J.Pickett,T.Smith.
(B.Eddy, S.Murry)
Projected Score 1810
Note: Rookies to change in the coming weeks .
$3400. Left in the kitty
thoughts on my team would be great fellas
def: shaw, adams, laird, scharenberg, ryan, stewart (berry, long)
mid: danger, jpk, treloar, gray, fyfe, mcgrath, spp, myers (pickett, freeman, graham)
ruck: gawn, grundy (strnadica)
fwd: dahlhaus, macrae, caddy, roughy, mcCluggage, bowes (bolton, eddy)
cheers all