Isaac Smith: A Risk v Reward Analysis
Before we get cracking on Isaac today I want to inform the community of a legal stoush over the JR Risk or Reward – O – Meter
..which you’ll remember was definitely not a dreamtime™ stock photo I found on Google from my last Risk v Reward article on Zac Williams.
In between flying all over the country gathering the very best SuperCoach intel in the land and penning the most SuperCoach relevant magazine ever seen in this country (since the 2015 version) Jock Reynolds stood up as my legal advisor and let me tell you, this man is an absolute DEMON in the courtroom.
He went straight up Colonel Jessup and delivered the “you can’t handle the truth” speech with such fire and passion that it resulted in a standing ovation from not only the gallery, but the jury, the bailiff, hell I even saw the Judge wiping away a tear at such a performance. The case was thrown out. I’m still scratching my head as to how that speech was at all relevant, but who am I to question the great man?
Now with that out the way, onto Isaac Smith. Is there a non-Hawthorn supporter among us that doesn’t love him? Responsible for that shank from 35m that started the Hawks demise in 2016, he enters the new season at 440k and has gained MID/FWD DPP. Does he have an upside?
ISAAC SMITH KEY NUMBERS
|Games 100+ in 2016:||5|
|70-79:|| 5 (7 under 70)
ISAAC SMITH STAT ATTACK
THE SEASONAL POSSESSION O-METER
A lot to take in from the tables above, but in short Isaac Smith has been very consistent over the past 3 years. 75% of the time over a stretch of 64 games he has logged between 20 and 30 possessions. The drop in his SuperCoach average over this time can be explained by a significant rise in clangers. Also, he only managed 9 goals this year after 21 and 16 in 2014 and 2015 respectively. It’s both these areas that need to improve for Smith to bounce back into the 90’s average, so can he do it?
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No Lewis or Mitchell
I’ll admit my knowledge of Hawthorn extends to barracking against them at every opportunity, so I’m happy to be corrected by more knowledgable supporters here, but I honestly believe Smith will have greater responsibility to lead Hawthorn into a new era. I expect Tom Mitchell to be front and centre, Jaegar is still a kid, Cyril will roll through the middle, but he’s too Special™ to spend all his time there. Hodge’s best position is halfback general. How much will Rough play this year? Then there’s Burgoyne …and kids. There’s been a significant leadership vacuum at the Hawks and Isaac has been given VC duties. He will want to step up.
Smith is priced to average 80.9, if we look at his total average over the past 3 years it sits at 86.8. Using this I have his real price at 472k. With all things being equal and fine and dandy, we can expect Smith to play 21-22 games and average 85-90. Sure, that’s nothing fantastic, but is it really that bad as an F6? Looking at the 6th top priced forward this year, Jack Macrae is 511k after averaging 93.9 last year.
Struggles to go big
The consistency of Isaac Smith is appealing, yet this isn’t AFL fantasy. SuperCoach is judged by more than possessions alone. 18 times he has crossed the 100 mark in his past 64 games.
Patch’s article on midpricers will be referred to for years to come. Patch, don’t hate me, but I’ve stolen your graph/mathematical geniusness to illustrate my point. A best case scenario for Smith will be to return to his 90 average from 2014. If he manages that his price will see a minimum increase.
You won’t be using Smith as a stepping stone type in 2017, but he should hold his value. Why bother selecting him then? There’s a TON of players below 440k that could breakout. Heeney, Touk, Billings, Acres, Jack Martin, Bennell, Roughy, Hrovat, and a few of the banned Bombers (Langford has been smashing it apparently). If any of those go bang early you can jump on with the knowledge that Smith won’t do anything special to make you regret the trade.
RISK V REWARD – O – METER
Smith has shown enough consistency over the years to be a low risk. His SC average has been dropping off which isn’t ideal, though I think with the Vice-Captaincy and an increase in opportunities at the Hawks this year his average will be on the upswing.
In the same breath, his upswing won’t mean he starts smashing out weekly 100’s.
Till next time – Kev
Get amongst the comments or hit me up on Twitter (@SC_Kev7)