Selection at the draft table can make or break you.
Just ask the recruiting staff of Melbourne who, in 2008, took Jack Watts with their number 1 pick ahead of the likes of Nic Nat, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Luke Shuey, Daniel Hannerbry and Rory Sloane.
And Richmond, for comic value I can’t pass up mentioning that you picked Reece Conca at no.6 (2010) only to see Caddy, Heppell and Prestia named straight after. I’ll even slip in the old RICHARD TAMBLING OVER BUDDY FRANLKIN fiasco and I’ve made my point clear: Drafting can be a dangerous game, both for clubs and supercoaches alike.
CHECK OUT THE FULL TOP 10 DRAFT PICK SC STATS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS ARTICLE
In the last 3 seasons, 14 out of 30 top ten picks played less than 10 games in their debut year and only 2 of those 14 had half reasonable increases, Darcy Moore ($96k) and Jacob Hopper ($93k). Further, of the 16 who played more than 10 games in their first season, 3 of those players didn’t pass $60k for an increase. So that’s 17 out of 30 top 10 draftees that weren’t fantasy relevant. Nearly 2/3’s in 3 seasons which is a hefty chunk you’ll agree….
Higgo may cringe at this quote…..
“Statistics are like swimsuits, what they reveal is interesting, but what they conceal is vital.”
My economics teacher, circa 1995.
……but it has a great point.
Matt Sharenberg was taken at pick 6 by the Pies in 2013 but was sidelined for the year with ankle injuries, while Nathan Freeman (Pick 10 in 2013) has no hamstrings. Jarrod Pickett (pick 4 2014) and Paul Ahern (pick 7 2014) were drowning in the GWS talent pool. Harry Mckay (pick 10 2015) and Christian Petracca (pick 2 2014) were also unsighted in their first year with AFL clubs. So that’s 6 kids that didn’t feature, making the percentage that played and increased by more than 90k in their debut year about %50. Now onto the gold Jerry. Last season Callum Mills (pick 3 2015) went from $211k to $411 in 17 games while Angus Brayshaw (pick 3 2014) had a near identical price rise but managed it in 12 games. The pick of the crop, Marcus Bontempelli (pick 4 2013) debuted late in season 2014 but in his first 12 games rose from $202k to $443k. No other debutants would break the 200k profit barrier.
Now with everything I’ve just mentioned in mind it appears, statistically, that only 1 first year top 10 pick will rise +$200k in 2017. While another 4 maybe worthy investments.
So class of 2017, will you buck the trend?
First, we must consider more than just numbers. Young key forwards – see you in 4-5 seasons. They have no physical presence and get towelled by experienced backmen, often playing for teams who can’t get the ball forward anyway. Josh Shache (pick 2 2015) is a prime example. The Lions were a basket case in 2016 and while he played 17 times, he averaged 51.3 and his peak price was $61k higher than his starting price. Tom Boyd stunk it up too in season 1 as did Paddy McCartin. And don’t forget small forward Nakia Cockatoo (pick 10 2015). He played 11 games in 2016 and averaged a pitiful 32. So see you later first year forwards and see you later Ben Ainsworth (pick 4 2016). Despite being listed as mid/fwd he’s a small forward, ask Rocket. I just don’t think he’ll play enough or average enough.
JOCK MAGAZINE 2017 – THE ROOKIE STRATEGY ARTICLE WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK ANY TOP 10 DRAFT SELECTION. BUY HERE.
Which brings me to 2016’s top 10 and Gold Coast’s top 10 plunder. They had 4 picks inside that 10 including Ainsworth. They also nabbed Jack Scrimshaw (pick 7), Will Brodie (pick 9) and Jack Bowes (pick 10). Rocket looks to have scratched Scrimshaw and suggested Brodie is looking at a mid-year debut, potentially given us a downgrade option. Bowes (171k mid/fwd) looks to be on the radar after Rocket’s comments, the magic quote was “has quickly picked up game plans and defensive structures”. Callum Mills anyone? I’ll be watching him closely in the JLT circus, but buyer beware – Eade wanted experience at the trade table as you don’t win games with kids. And remember those drowning giants I mentioned earlier? Tim Taranto (pick 2 2016) and Will Setterfield (pick 5 2016) look destined to be NEAFL stars in 2017 in my opinion. It’s tough to crack into a premiership fancy no matter how good you are, which puts a line through those lads.
JOCK’S 2017 ROOKIE CHEAT SHEET v1.0 HERE
One team definitely not in premiership calculations is Carrrrllllllllton. Sam Petrevski-Seton (pick 6), you son will have to wait a few years before that dais looks even remotely tangible. I am however, really uncertain about the blues this year, they may actually improve. But I won’t be touching SPS even if they go south and “think of the future”. He’s a mid in SC, related to Jack “promise” Martin and not forgetting the WAFL has churned out some grade A peanuts. He’s also listed at a weight of 76kg and touted as being able to play up forward. Did they say forward? PASS.
Griffen Logue (pick 8) plays for Ross Lyon. He won’t debut until he’s 27. Despite “whispers” he’s in line for first team action – do we honestly see Ross giving him a game in late March and continually throughout the year? Me either.
So it looks to me like Ashley McGrath (pick 1) and Hugh McCluggage (pick 3) are your boys to choose from. They’re in bottom dwelling sides who are likely to dish out TOG and they have the extra allure of DPP. Clark Kent has said he’s wary of putting too much strain on McGrath in his first season, but reading between the lines I’m interpreting that as “this kid is awesome and will definitely play at least 12 games”. McCluggage, I’ve got little intel on but I’ve heard he’s put himself right in the picture for rd1. The words “doesn’t look out of place” to be exact.
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Of course you want me to put my money where my mouth is, but I’m not going to do that. I’ll just put my kahunas in the vice of social media and go as far saying they’ll both make around 190k for you and I think McCluggage will be the star for this year. Bowes may also prove handy if named early……
And I admit it’s all subjective at this point, so check out the stats below, top 10 picks aren’t all “plaques and ham”.
Enjoy the stats below! (if you’re on a smartphone might need to turn it landscape to see it all)
|2016||8||Callum Ah Chee||FWD||189K||228K||31K0||20||16||60|
|2015||5||Jordan De Goey||FWD/MID||202K||247K||322K||23||16||59|