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Top 10 Draft Picks in SuperCoach Year 1

Published by Jock on

SuperCoach Top 10 Draft Picks

Selection at the draft table can make or break you.

by GAVEDAY

Just ask the recruiting staff of Melbourne who, in 2008, took Jack Watts with their number 1 pick ahead of the likes of Nic Nat, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Luke Shuey, Daniel Hannerbry and Rory Sloane.

And Richmond, for comic value I can’t pass up mentioning that you picked Reece Conca at no.6 (2010) only to see Caddy, Heppell and Prestia named straight after. I’ll even slip in the old RICHARD TAMBLING OVER BUDDY FRANLKIN fiasco and I’ve made my point clear: Drafting can be a dangerous game, both for clubs and supercoaches alike.

CHECK OUT THE FULL TOP 10 DRAFT PICK SC STATS AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS ARTICLE

In the last 3 seasons, 14 out of 30 top ten picks played less than 10 games in their debut year and only 2 of those 14 had half reasonable increases, Darcy Moore ($96k) and Jacob Hopper ($93k). Further, of the 16 who played more than 10 games in their first season, 3 of those players didn’t pass $60k for an increase. So that’s 17 out of 30 top 10 draftees that weren’t fantasy relevant. Nearly 2/3’s in 3 seasons which is a hefty chunk you’ll agree….

 Higgo may cringe at this quote…..

SuperCoach Quote

“Statistics are like swimsuits, what they reveal is interesting, but what they conceal is vital.”

My economics teacher, circa 1995.

……but it has a great point.

Matt Sharenberg was taken at pick 6 by the Pies in 2013 but was sidelined for the year with ankle injuries, while Nathan Freeman (Pick 10 in 2013) has no hamstrings. Jarrod Pickett (pick 4 2014) and Paul Ahern (pick 7 2014) were drowning in the GWS talent pool. Harry Mckay (pick 10 2015) and Christian Petracca (pick 2 2014) were also unsighted in their first year with AFL clubs. So that’s 6 kids that didn’t feature, making the percentage that played and increased by more than 90k in their debut year about %50. Now onto the gold Jerry. Last season Callum Mills (pick 3 2015) went from $211k to $411 in 17 games while Angus Brayshaw (pick 3 2014) had a near identical price rise but managed it in 12 games. The pick of the crop, Marcus Bontempelli (pick 4 2013) debuted late in season 2014 but in his first 12 games rose from $202k to $443k. No other debutants would break the 200k profit barrier.

Now with everything I’ve just mentioned in mind it appears, statistically, that only 1 first year top 10 pick will rise +$200k in 2017. While another 4 maybe worthy investments.

So class of 2017, will you buck the trend?

First, we must consider more than just numbers. Young key forwards – see you in 4-5 seasons. They have no physical presence and get towelled by experienced backmen, often playing for teams who can’t get the ball forward anyway. Josh Shache (pick 2 2015) is a prime example. The Lions were a basket case in 2016 and while he played 17 times, he averaged 51.3 and his peak price was $61k higher than his starting price. Tom Boyd stunk it up too in season 1 as did Paddy McCartin. And don’t forget small forward Nakia Cockatoo (pick 10 2015). He played 11 games in 2016 and averaged a pitiful 32. So see you later first year forwards and see you later Ben Ainsworth (pick 4 2016). Despite being listed as mid/fwd he’s a small forward, ask Rocket. I just don’t think he’ll play enough or average enough.

JOCK MAGAZINE 2017 – THE ROOKIE STRATEGY ARTICLE WILL MAKE YOU RETHINK ANY TOP 10 DRAFT SELECTION. BUY HERE.

Which brings me to 2016’s top 10 and Gold Coast’s top 10 plunder. They had 4 picks inside that 10 including Ainsworth. They also nabbed Jack Scrimshaw (pick 7), Will Brodie (pick 9) and Jack Bowes (pick 10). Rocket looks to have scratched Scrimshaw and suggested Brodie is looking at a mid-year debut, potentially given us a downgrade option. Bowes (171k mid/fwd) looks to be on the radar after Rocket’s comments, the magic quote was “has quickly picked up game plans and defensive structures”. Callum Mills anyone? I’ll be watching him closely in the JLT circus, but buyer beware – Eade wanted experience at the trade table as you don’t win games with kids. And remember those drowning giants I mentioned earlier? Tim Taranto (pick 2 2016) and Will Setterfield (pick 5 2016) look destined to be NEAFL stars in 2017 in my opinion. It’s tough to crack into a premiership fancy no matter how good you are, which puts a line through those lads.

JOCK’S 2017 ROOKIE CHEAT SHEET v1.0 HERE

One team definitely not in premiership calculations is Carrrrllllllllton. Sam Petrevski-Seton (pick 6), you son will have to wait a few years before that dais looks even remotely tangible. I am however, really uncertain about the blues this year, they may actually improve. But I won’t be touching SPS even if they go south and “think of the future”. He’s a mid in SC, related to Jack “promise” Martin and not forgetting the WAFL has churned out some grade A peanuts. He’s also listed at a weight of 76kg and touted as being able to play up forward. Did they say forward? PASS.

Griffen Logue (pick 8) plays for Ross Lyon. He won’t debut until he’s 27. Despite “whispers” he’s in line for first team action – do we honestly see Ross giving him a game in late March and continually throughout the year? Me either.

So it looks to me like Ashley McGrath (pick 1) and Hugh McCluggage (pick 3) are your boys to choose from. They’re in bottom dwelling sides who are likely to dish out TOG and they have the extra allure of DPP. Clark Kent has said he’s wary of putting too much strain on McGrath in his first season, but reading between the lines I’m interpreting that as “this kid is awesome and will definitely play at least 12 games”. McCluggage, I’ve got little intel on but I’ve heard he’s put himself right in the picture for rd1. The words “doesn’t look out of place” to be exact.

PODCAST IS CRANKING LIVE NEVER BEFORE CATCH UP HERE

Of course you want me to put my money where my mouth is, but I’m not going to do that. I’ll just put my kahunas in the vice of social media and go as far saying they’ll both make around 190k for you and I think McCluggage will be the star for this year. Bowes may also prove handy if named early……

Hugh McLuggage

And I admit it’s all subjective at this point, so check out the stats below, top 10 picks aren’t all “plaques and ham”.

Enjoy the stats below! (if you’re on a smartphone might need to turn it landscape to see it all)

GAVEDAY

Twitter: @GAVEDAY

YearDraftNamePOSStartRD6PeakPeak RDPlayedAvg
20161Jacob WeiteringDEF220K363K363K62068
20162Josh SchacheFWD216K273K277K81751
20163Callum MillsDEF211K305K411K192077
20164Clayton OliverMID207K294K354K231370
20165Darcy ParishMID202K326K364K212072
20166Aaron FrancisDEF/FWD198K198K222K21360
20167Jacob HopperFWD/MID193K278K285K23870
20168Callum Ah CheeFWD189K228K31K0201660
20169Sam WeidemanFWD184K184K184Kna340
201610Harry McKayFWD180K180K18K0na00
20151Paddy McCartinFWD222K215K222K1637
20152Christian PetraccaFWD217K217K217Kna00
20153Angus BrayshawMID212K278K411K132166
20154Jarrod PickettFWD/MID207K207K207Kna00
20155Jordan De GoeyFWD/MID202K247K322K231659
20156Caleb MarchbankDEF197K197K213K23540
20157Paul AhernDEF/MID192K192K192Kna00
20158Peter WrightFWD187K187K187K1335
20159Darcy MooreFWD/MID182K228K278K23954
201510Nakia Cockatoo FWD177K173K177K11132
20141Tom Boyd RUCK/FWD217K22K0241K22945
20142Josh KellyMID212K321K361K231868
20143Jack BillingsFWD/MID207K284K346K171661
20144Marcus BontempelliMID202K232K443K191679
20145Kade KolodjashnijDEF197K306K397K121868
20146Matthew ScharenbergDEF192K192K192Kna00
20147James AishDEF/MID187K268K374K92171
20148Luke McDonaldDEF182K304K349K192066
20149Christian SalemDEF177K201K215K141234
201410Nathan FreemanMID172K172K172Kna00


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John

It is a concern that McGrath is said to be managed.

I N Pieman

After what woosha said about McGrath during the week I've put a line through him. McLuggage will play in the forward line & perhaps pinch hit in the mids. Keep in mind he's very outside. Ainsworth will play small forward, no thanks. Toranto & Settlefield I'll be more interested when there at Carlton. SPS worth a quick look. Logue also worth a look. Brodie mid season. Scrimshaw no. Bowes is worth a look. Great stuff Gave

SCaddict

Hey you were selling me hard on McGrath less than a week ago and now you've put a line through him?! Maybe that was just one of your doppelgangers speaking. 🙂

Just goes to show that it's kind of pointless talking much about rookies right now until we actually see them play at AFL level (JLT) and then actually get named for Rd1. Otherwise we are just p1ssing without the toilet light on!

Damien

I've so far built a team where my only top 10 pick is Jack Bowes, but that could change. Other than Bowes, none of my other rookies are over 150k

I have Keeffe at 165k but I don't count him as a rookie (just a pure cash cow), and I've only picked him because I like the comments Bucks said about what his role would be this season.

UncleSwaggy

my rookie selctions are looking pretty much the same, gives you a lot more flexibility elsewhere in your structure

Kev

Absolutely blown away by this, Gaveday. Brilliant.

Having a play around with that table and stuff me, only SIX have averaged above 70 in their first year, with an average price tag of 200K. It confirms for me what I've subconsciously known but never acknowledged – An overpriced rookie is still a bloody rookie! 170k or 117k it's all the bloody same.

I love the wisdom of this community.

Derek

i noticed that as well Kev. Gee… Mills stands out as a Gun in waiting. Mills D4.

Elmeano

Yeah for someone who is new to this , great article and heaps to think about. Hopefully the the guide will arrive soon to help out newer players like myself . Awesome community . League code 180303 – 4 spots left

Declan

Great write up Gave, just like to know what the communities thoughts are on Curtly Hampton?

Damien

He's been in and out of my team. Even a blistering JLT series may not convince me either. I can't see him staying in the Adelaide team long enough to generate enough cash.

Kev

Reckon Damien has nailed it. Plenty of talent Hampton but he's not best 22 for mine.

Leeds17

You'd think they've got to get games into Hampton, Knight, Yolmen & Menzel otherwise they are just wasting money on them.

Brown Cow

Cracking article Gaveday! Rarely pick high priced rookies but had nothing to support that. I think Whoosha may have been playing games with McGrath also but the intel above has me questioning whether he might be a work in progress.

Dont Blush Baby

Excellent work mate, opinions please – McCluggage or Swallow for my M7, priced similar but Luggage is DPP ?

Dr dollar

Similar price? Be nice not too worry about $100k.

Gaveday

Swallow if they're your only 2 to choose from.

Luskin Star

Great article Gaveday. I always steer away from 1st year players over 150k. In relation to swallow and mcbags, i prefer Swallow but you shouldnt be considering any dpps as on field mids, Dont Blush. All on field dpps should be picked on the line that generally scores less to maximise the impact of the score to your team. For example a 60 from your F6 is better than a 60 from your m8. Use your bench dpps in the midfield to faciltate swings.

Rabbits16

thats a great point

PhillyBuster

This really solves quite a few issues in deciding final placements.LS. ..Thank you for the simple clarity jolt.

Declan

Instead of Hampton, who would you go for as another rookie defender.
Currently have: Simpson, Montagna, Laird, Scharenberg, Hibberd, Ryan, Collins

Props won't go with Keefe, as don't think he will pump out slid 60+ scores and got a few Collingwood players already. Thoughts on another rookie defender thanks.

hedski

Newman from Sydney worth watchin too

Kev

I've seen Ed Vickers-Willis mentioned.

Northernsoul74

I don't think Collins will be a regular for the Dogs. Great attitude and will do everything he can to make it but a long way to go. Pretty slow and not the most athletic.

Holty

He is in my team. Wont be looking at anyone else. Apparently training the house down. Plus Adelaide need pace and that is what Hampton has

Derek

Jordon Ridley is worth keeping an eye on. Valuable DEF/FWD. Coach was asked if there were any other rookies besides McGrath who were in the mix for round 1, Ridley was only other one mentioned. $117k.

Hart_attack

Hey lads give an opionion on this structure if possible
Cheers

Doc, adams, laird, keefe, long, ryan, newman, stewart
Danger, jpk, treloar, rocky, fyfe, beams, swallow, Myers, spp, hibberd, graham
Gawn, martin, sterndickn
Dahl, caddy, ryder, picket, bolton, Smith, rioli, eddy

$146k

SCaddict

Excellent article Gaveday. Indeed it's very difficult for a $200K plus rookie to gain another $200K and nearly impossible in the first 6 or 7 rounds when culling season opens. Even Weitering who belted out a massive 129 in Rd3 couldn't manage even $150K by Rd6 although admittedly he got hurt early in that round.

The average $200K rookie will need to outscore his $100K counterpart by nearly 20ppg just to break even in terms of cash generation which is quite a sobering ask really. So the $200K kid not only has to be able to play but have a very fantasy friendly game and also play a fantasy friendly role to be worth even considering such an investment.

Gaveday

Thanks SCaddict – I guess we all want another Mills!

RYYAN

Def- Doch,Adams,Laird,Vince,Scharenburg,Ryan,(Stewart,Long)4,0,2
Mid-Danger,JPK,Gray,Shuey,Fyfe,SPP,Myers,Graham,(Freeman,Bolton,Jarman)5,0,3
Ruck-Gawn,Martin,(Eagles)1,1,0
For-Dahluas,Kennedy,Ryder,Roughhead,Pickett,Eddy(Camreon,Smith)

RYYAN

what do i do

Keenbutclueless

Gray and Shuey at M3 and M4 look a little light. Would consider giving up one if Ryder or Roughy and downgrading that to a Knight/White/Thomas/McCluggage type and upgrading your M3 and M4 to rolled gold guaranteed top 8 premos

Declan

Luggage is a new rookie, would it be better going in with someone like mat white or josh Thomas instead of luggage as they have had afl experience, white and luggage similar price and Thomas about 30k less. Would u take those afl experienced players over the new high pick rookies? Thoughts community.

Derek

i have Knight and Turner in my team, and Lovell is also in the mix. will depend alot on best 22.

Declan

Sorry Thomas, Luggage and White are all around 190-200k

frogger

Great analysis. It is one thing to assume more expensive rookies are likely to appreciate more slowly, it is another thing again to plow through the numbers and show it with actual score and price data – and that effects like potentially better job security don't seem to really counterbalance it either. Top stuff.

Ethan

Thoughts community

Def: Shaw, Leigh, Laird, Scharenberg, Ryan, Stewart (hibberd, Ridley)

Mid: Danger, JPK, Priddis, Sloane, Sidebottom, Fyfe, Myers, SPP (Nathan freeman, Shai Bolton, Jack Graham)

Ruck: Gawn, Grundy (Cameron)

Forward: Dalhaus, Macrae, Caddy, Bowes, Pickett, Smith (Eddy, Long)

Hawks

Well balanced team.

Very heavy in the mids, but should score well.

ethan

Join community league
416077

Hawks

Appreciate your thoughts-

Shaw, Rance, Johannisen, Scharenberg, Hibberd, Ryan (Stewart, Long)

Pendles,Ablett, Neale, Bont, Fyfe, Watson, Swallow, SPP (Myers, Witherden, Graham)

Gawn, Goldy (Strnadica)

Dahlhaus, Macrae, Roughead, McCluggage, Bowes, Pickett (Smith, Eddy)

Rabbits16

ive been considering Watson & Heppell massively. Roughead i would like to see how he goes but massively considering. love Rance in there. is Goldy going to ok he isnt training atm i believe…

Rabbits16

Docherty Shaw Rance 3-0-5

Dangerfield Pendles Kennedy Treloar R Gray Fyfe 6-0-5

Gawn Hickey

Dalhaus Caddy Heeney 3-0-5

Rest all rookies except for J Bowes

Projected 1859 points $60 k in bank

Thoughts?

Hawks

Like the Robbie Gray & Issac Heeney inclusions.

I'm not sold on Hickey at R2.

Very deep midfield with Fyfe at M5…wow.

Rabbits16

the more i tinker around with the team im just not convinced on having a D4 or F4 high priced mid take up money when i can get a definite 100+ mid poisition player (using the extra coin i have by not having any mid priced players or high priced rookie).

will it make it harder to upgrade my 3 other defenders and 3 other forwards to a premo though?

total of 8 starting rookies to convert into premium keepers over the season. is this doable?

Rabbits16

yeh im not sold on Hickey however with the $60k in the bank i could tinker around with the rookies to get some cash out of them to upgrade to grundy whom i am sold on

Holty

McCluggage although expensive, will be in my team come round 1 (if named). Normally against going expensive rookies but feel he will still make good cash.
Reason being, he is arguably 1 midfield injury away from getting more time in Brisbanes midfield and 2 injuries from extended time in the midfield. And with both Beams and Rocky's injury past, chances look very good.

Andrew

Is a fwd line of Dalh, McRae, Roughy an Ryder (as ruck coverage) too thin?

Thanks in advance.

Dustbin Feltchers

Monday night and still no magazine? Has anyone in Perth received it yet??

Jim_bob321

What do u guys think of my team…… and possible improvements:
Def: Docherty, Shaw, Laird, Johannisen, Hampton, Scharenberg (M.Hibberd,L.Ryan)
Mid: Dangerfield, Sloane, Bontempelli, Fyfe, Beams, Powell-Pepper, Myers, Freeman (J.Pickett, J.Foote, J.Graham)
Rucks: Gawn, Sandilands (L.Strnadica)
Fowards: Dahlhaus, Macrae, Heeney, Roughead, McCluggage, Bowes (M.McCarthy, B.Eddy)

Thanks