SuperCoach 2017: Top 5 Injury Returnees
This week I take a look at five players returning from injury that I think you should consider for Supercoach 2017.
They may just help with your decisions to select one, none or all of the players listed in this article.
#5- Aaron Sandilands (RUC $308,200)
Aaron Sandilands is in a hell of a lot of teams so far and I think it’s for good reason.
The conservative side of me just wants to lock Gawn and Goldstein away for the second year running but the value lover in me is pulling me towards the purple giant in the West.
So why would we pick Sandilands in 2017? Well there are really two key reasons to selecting the Fremantle ruckman.
The first is that he is cheap and has a history of scoring and the second is that picking him may allow you to grab an extra premium in the midfield.
In five of his last seven seasons Sandilands has averaged at least 107.8 points per game. More recently he averaged 108 and 107.8 in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
Over the last six seasons Sandilands has registered 53 scores above 100 Supercoach points (including finals) but guess how many games he missed in that same time period?
That’s right, big Sandiballs has missed as many games as he has scored 100+ since 2011. Not only is this a beautiful stat that I was able to find but it is also a great visualization of the risk you take when picking the big man.
Personally I want to believe the risk is worth it but in reality if Sandilands goes down again with injury what can you do? His price is too awkward to easily find a replacement for and his recent history says that he will miss games.
This man will be in and out of my team over the next several months but ultimately I think we are better off selecting durable and high scoring ruckmen for 2017.
#4- Robert Murphy (DEF $392, 300)
Let’s focus on the fantasy footy with this selection, no need to focus on how much of a good bloke Bob is when there are hundreds of articles around doing just that.
Bob was one of the better selections I made in 2015, he was underpriced and I saw potential for a big season. He ended up scoring close to 90 points per game and I was pretty thrilled with that.
2016 I saw Bob as slightly overpriced and was able to avoid selecting him, although I was pretty annoyed at myself after his first two games prior to the great man injuring his ACL.
In 2017 I see Bob as once again being a fantastic value selection. Yes he is long in the tooth and yes he is coming off a major injury but I think he could easily pump out 20 games at an average of 88 Supercoach points, for under $400K that is a bargain.
Bob has been training with the rest of his Bulldogs side since late November (2016) and was in rehab training from April. In what he has called “the longest preseason in history” Bob appears to have overcome his knee injury and should lineup in the preseason competition.
Since 2011 Murphy has averaged at least 84.7 Supercoach points per game and (with the exception of 2016) at least 19 games per season. In this time he has registered 38 scores of 100+ and 56 scores of 90+.
A lot of people will write Murphy off due to his age of 34 but as I always say, age is just a number baby.
David Swallow is getting closer to a long awaited return to football. https://t.co/uLb5JS6ZNP
— AFL (@AFL) January 26, 2017
#3- David Swallow (MID $280,200)
At $280K Swallow is just $70K more than the number one pick in Andrew McGrath who has never played a game in the AFL. Is the fact that Swallow has a career average of 85.26 combined with his cheap (but still midpriced) price tag enough to warrant a selection in 2017?
I think an apt comparison can be made between David Swallow in 2017 and Daniel Wells in 2016. Wells was priced at $243,900 at the beginning of 2016 after playing just 9 games the two seasons prior. Swallow is priced similarly after playing just 6 games over the last two seasons.
Wells went on to successfully play in 18 games in 2016 at an average of 100.6 with 9 scores of 100+ including a high score of 138.
The question is, can Swallow make a similar return to form as Wells?
With so many players running through GCS’s midfield will there be room for Swallow? I see him running of the halfback line and playing through the midfield on occasions, probably in tandem with Pearce Hanley. Lucky for us Swallow played this role in 2014 and was able to average 103 Supercoach points.
Ideally we’ll be looking to hold Swallow until he has accrued enough value to be traded for a fallen premium. There’s a chance that we could hold onto him as an M8/bench option like many people did with Liberatore in 2016.
Swallow has played 79 games in his career and scored 100+ in 21 of those games meaning that he has tonned up 26.58 % of the time. 12 of his total 21 scores of 100+ came in 2014, Swallow’s most successful season in terms of average (103.2) and games (22). This is the form we need him to hit to justify his selection.
If Swallow scores at a rate of 85.26 (his career average) then he will increase in value to just $460,233 give or take. Frankly $179,594 is probably not enough to justify a selection so what does he need to average to make him a viable midfield selection?
In my opinion, the magic number we are looking for is 92.63 points per game. This would see Swallow peak at the $500K mark (or close to) making him the perfect candidate for a trade to a fallen premium. For reference if Swallow hits his 2014 average of 103 he’ll hit the $560K(ish) mark, which would be a massive win.
#2- Dayne Beams/Marc Murphy (Both MID $432,500)
I think that everyone needs to consider having one of these two players in their team. I think running both players will cause you more stress than it’s worth but at the end of the day it all comes down to personal preference when it comes to picking one, none or both of these guys.
If we look at the career stats of both of these guys you’ll see that they are almost identical which is fitting given they averaged the same amount of points as each other in 2016.
As you can see both players average a similar amount of disposals, marks and tackles per game, Beams has the edge when it comes to goals and Murphy has a slight advantage when it comes to frees for. As we can’t really split these guys based on their entire careers then maybe we can split them based on recent Supercoach outputs.
Will hit the mail TOMORROW if you’ve already ordered one folks!
— Jock Reynolds (@jock_reynolds) January 31, 2017
#1- Jarryd Roughead (FWD 367,100)
Roughead is my number one pick as a player returning from injury if not for the value he represents then for the feel good story.
The Hawthorn captain returns from a year out of footy after a successful battle with cancer, there is no one in the AFL community who doesn’t want Roughy to succeed this year.
At $367K Roughead is almost a no-brainer and I expect to see him in a lot of Supercoach teams. He is priced to average 67 and has an average of 99.18 over his last five seasons (thanks to Trigger’s article for that stat), which means that he will make cash even if he doesn’t meet his own lofty standards.
Even an average of 85 would push his value up towards the $500K mark and would see him as a potential F8 lock all year long, however I expect him to average somewhere in the 90’s and hell he could even win the Coleman, wouldn’t that be a great way to cap off his comeback year.
I fully expect Roughy to play every game, he will want to go about things like he was never sick and the added expectations of the Hawthorn captaincy will ensure that he is up and about all year long.
Throw in some other variables like the addition of Vickery or the growth of Breust and Gunston and we have the perfect melting pot to see Roughead succeed on the field and in our Supercoach teams.
Whilst he won’t be a P.O.D you should certainly lock this man into your forward line now.
Let me know what you think community; are you taking any of the players I’ve analysed above and what is your thought process behind the decision?