Zac Williams: A Risk v Reward Analysis
Look, lets be honest here, every fantasy coach worth his or her salt can identify a rolled-gold SuperCoach premium. Head on over Jock’s excellent analysis onand you’ll see that the Dangerfield’s, Pendlebury’s, and Docherty’s of the world are all in a lot of teams. All 3 had excellent seasons and as such, are some of the more expensive options heading into 2017.
As much as we try to cram as many of these guys as we can into our starting 22 within the 10mil salary cap, hunting for value is just as important. Whether it’s identifying a breakout player, giving your team a point of difference (POD) or a lack of rookies, players in the 300-500k range can be just as important for success.
Players in that price range are there for a reason. They are notorious for following up a 100 with a 60 and you end up being stuck with them, convincing yourself that their next big score is just around the corner. An example for you, it took me until round 14, yes FOURTEEN, to trade out Jeremy McGovern last year. He started 2016 at 429k, my “stepping stone” defender, had lost 15k from his starting price by the time I got rid of him and I had 6 scores each above and below 80 to show for it. Research is VITAL.
First cab off the rank for Risk v Reward is Zac Williams. He was in 11% of preseason teams. Should you pick him?
Zac Williams key numbers
|Games 100+ in 2016:||4|
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Zac Williams Stat Attack (includes finals)
An increase in clangers was the only blight for Zac Williams in 2016 when compared to his 2015 campaign. However, importantly, his disposal efficiency didn’t suffer because of it. There’s nothing hugely surprising about these numbers, you don’t increase your SC average by 18 points without smashing out some career high stats. An increase by almost 2 in I50’s is a positive sign that he is gaining confidence to push higher up the field.
Will his role change?
Nah. Fellow backman Nathan Wilson struggled with groin issues throughout the year and had relatively major surgery on both his hips. He hasn’t been ruled out for round one as far as I know, but is expected to make a delayed start. With the Giants flush for talent in seemingly every position, he may be forced to find match fitness via the NEAFL.
Is there room for Zac Williams alongside Heath Shaw in your team?
Heath Shaw struggled post bye in 2016. He started to gather attention in the form of a forward tag, limiting his ability for a free pass out of the backline. However, this didn’t translate into greater output from Zac Williams. Zac had his own struggles post bye, failing to ton up at all. His last month of the season was particularly poor with scores of 84, 68, 79, and 55 along with finals contributions of 65 and 56 taking the gloss off what was a great year.
You can feel safe selecting both to start the year. The Dogs showed that rebounding defenders can exist in the same team and be a success (before they all fell over)
Zac Williams pre/post bye analysis with finals
— Jock Reynolds (@jock_reynolds) January 12, 2017
Risk v Reward-0-Meter
Where does Zachy boy fall on the patented JR Risk or Reward – O – Meter that definitely isn’t a dreamtime™ stock photo I found on Google?
I’m not saying he is a lock or a must have, but there’s not a lot risk associated with Zac Williams in 2017. He is someone you can be comfortable in selecting.
Till next time – Kev
Get amongst the comments or hit me up on Twitter (@SC_Kev7) if there’s a player you would like to see get the risk v reward treatment. If the concept is popular enough I’d love to write a few more.