Michael Hibberd – Is he good enough?
Community you may or may not be aware that I am currently traversing the great plains of the United States of America in what has truly been my biggest fantasy preseason ever.
In order to best ready myself for the 2017 Supercoach season, I have come to America in a Fyfe-esque preseason to recreate an entire AFL season and ensure that I successfully achieve my fantasy goals.
I began my pilgrimage as the great man Mick Malthouse would have wanted me to, with some high altitude training in Arizona (it worked for Carlton’s 2014 draft class, why wouldn’t it work for me?). I then braved the heat of Phoenix and attended a match day at the NFL; I closely watched the players and took notes on how to run in a slightly diagonal line.
Finally I have completed my compact AFL season with a trip to Vegas, now unfortunately I put this bit in the middle of the trip and can no longer afford to come home.
And thus I am writing to you from an airport terminal trapped and alone sort of like that crappy Tom Hanks film.
And whilst I sit here, hoping that someone will take pity on me and buy me an ice-cold beer, one mans name dances through my mind… Michael Hibberd.
|Games in 2015:||21|
|Average in 2015:||82.1|
|100+ games in 2015:||2 (8 scores of 90+)|
|Sub 80 games in 2015:||8|
|Missed games last season:||
Initially I was looking at Hibberd as an absolute lock at $400K. He’s been fairly consistent over the last few years and generally I don’t like to spend big on my defenders anyway, so there are two ticks for Hibberd so far.
But upon further inspection I’m not sure that Hibberd makes the grade, particularly with some of the defensive options we have on the table. Adams, Vince and Hartlett to name just a few.
Let’s digest some numbers.
The obvious risk is that he, like his banned ex-teammates, hasn’t played football since 2015. You can tell me that he’s been keeping fit and healthy but until I physically see him out on the park during the NAB Challenge he is a massive risk.
At $400K if Hibberd were to return to his average of 89.8 (2013-2015) then you’d absolutely chalk him up as a win, you’d also see him appreciate about $100K .
Here’s the issue, Hibberd slowed down in 2015 an averaged just 82.1. Now this average actually meets my threshold for a midpriced defender but to advise the wider community to pick Hibberd isn’t something I’m likely to do and here’s why.
If we take Hibberd’s 2015 average and apply it to 2016 he is ranked a lowly 36th of all defenders, slotted right between Supercoach titans Shane Savage and Tom Langdon.
Even if we take his best-case scenario average of 89.8, Hibberd would still be ranked 18th overall, I don’t think it’s good enough.
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Despite all I’ve said, there are still some scenarios in which you can select Michael Hibberd. The first scenario is that you think he can get back to averaging a consistent 90, appreciate $100K and either trade him for a fallen premium or have a decent D6 option.
The other (more realistic) option is that you select Hibberd not with the intention of having him become a top-10 defender but rather as an affordable stopgap.
Hibberd is pretty cheap and in our initial teams we can’t afford to have all of Docherty, Simpson, Shaw, Vince etc. but we can afford to have a couple of those guys and a mid-tier player that could average 80-90 point per game. Hibberd should still score pretty well to start the season and whilst he won’t set the world on fire he should be a consistent option to help carry the load in your backlines early on.
- Reasonably priced
- Averaged 95.9, 91.4 and 82.1 over his last three seasons
- Scored 90+ 32 times between 2013 and 2015
- Will be looking to reignite his career at Melbourne
- Kicks more than he handballs
- Didn’t play in 2015
- Isn’t going to be a top-10 defender
- 2015 average would have had him ranked 36th of all defenders in 2016
This is a tough one community. Initially I was going to write this article to convince people to select Hibberd but once I got started I began to talk myself out of him as a selection.
The real killer for me is comparing his 2015 average to the average scores of defenders in 2016, 36th overall just doesn’t cut the mustard.
I think if we were looking for Melbourne defenders I’d rather buy a Vince or a McDonald.
Despite his affordable price tag I just don’t think Hibberd will give us enough value to warrant a selection, even if he goes nuts and starts off with some decent scores we’ll be able to pick him up later in the year for a relatively similar price.
NO – Better value elsewhere
What’s your call on the Michael Hibberd?
A wonderful human being. Like a son to me >> @LekBlog
|This article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.|
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