Touk Miller supercoach 2017A Diamond In The Rough Or An Utter Bust?

by Nicki Boy

When you say the name Touk Miller, not many people if any at all will even have the slightest clue of what you’re talking about. Is he a Socceroo? A relative to the great Colin ‘funky’ Miller? Those that do know Touk will probably laugh about the time he was a rookie on their fantasy bench in 2015 and say, “oh yeah he was pretty good bench cover”.

But I’m here today to tell you that Touk Miller is arguably one of the most exciting prospects entering in to the 2017 season. You’re probably thinking I’m crazy. Thinking that Touk can be an integral part of any Supercoach side in 2017 seems ludicrous looking at his surface. It’s when we strip it back and chisel away at the statistics surrounding Touk’s game do we really start to see the makings of a potential scoring machine.

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2017 Price: $428,900
2017 Position: MID/FWD
Games last season: 18
Average last season: 78.8
100+ games last season: 6
Sub 80 games last season: 9
Price range last season:  $293K – $486K
Missed games last season:
  • 4 (rounds 2,3,9 and 10)
Significant history:
  • Pick 29 in the 2014 National Draft
  • Averaged 73 in 2015 (1st season)
  • 1st in rookie tackles (2015)

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

Taking a look at the above is bitterly disappointing. But Touk Miller’s 2016 can be broken in to two parts.

ROUNDS 1-15

During this period of time Touk averaged:

  • 33% midfield time
  • 16.2 disposals
  • 3.8 tackles
  • 59.2 Supercoach points

Being stuck in the forward line really hindered Touk’s scoring output. Being a running machine and work horse he couldn’t wear his direct opponent down and gather possessions as we were a custom to in his first year. Also, some minor niggling injuries made any kind of consistency scarce.

ROUNDS 16-23 

During this period of time Touk averaged:

  • 91% midfield time
  • 27.9 disposals
  • 6.3 tackles
  • 103.1 Supercoach points

With the Suns midfield decimated it was time for Touk to deliver. When given the opportunity Touk seized it with both hands and put his hand up for a full-time role in the guts come 2017. His ability to find the ball matched with his pace and endurance had the opposition blind-sided. He also became one of Rodney Rocket Eades’ go to men with Aaron Hall falling out of favour.

RISK FACTOR

A risk regarding Touk Miller is his midfield time.  Can he hold down a permanent position in the midfield?

Before I go any further it has been two years since the Gold Coast Suns were truly at full strength. There is a lot of what ifs surrounding who will play where and so we must keep an open mind whilst viewing what’s ahead.

On the surface the signs do not look good with the Suns going and collecting Hanley, Barlow and Lyons through the trade period and collecting another four midfielders who all fell within the top 10.

They also still have an Ablett (God’s son), Aaron Hall and David Swallow if he ever wants to get healthy again.

But there is a counter argument to this. The retirement of Malceski will most likely see Hanley being the rebound defender limiting midfield time. Hall at times was out of favour with Rocket and maybe overlooked and stuck somewhere else. As for Lyons, he will come through the midfield at stages but could be playing more of a forward flanker role as Adelaide designed for him.

The game is well past Barlow as a midfielder with the need of run and gun players to match the pace of the modern game and the rookies will be slowly fed in to the Suns system with a whole lot of forward line action for the likes of Ainsworth.

Another problem Touk faces is disposal efficiency. 61.8% (2016) is not good enough and will need to improve to 67.5%> for a real surge of scoring to come his way. This will be made easier if the Gold Coast Suns can in fact remain healthy and have a consistent side on the park each week.

SELECTION PURPOSE

With bugger all good DPP options in the forward line in 2017, you’re looking for Touk to break out and become a 95+ averaging player to make some cash and hold down some residence up front.

As explained by Jock in the article “Identifying the Next Supercoach Beast”, players will generally break out in the 3rd or 4th year of AFL footy. Touk is in his 3rd year and is primed and ready to do so as he’s played 40 games and pending to explode in 2017.

What also sounds appetising is the fact that Touk called out both Prestia and O’Meara for leaving the club. It may not seem like much but for Touk to call out two of the more premiere players of the competition shows that he has a lot of support behind him from the club and their belief in his ability. This could suggest a more significant role for Touk in 2017.

THE GOOD

  • Coming in to a third year (break out season)
  • In favour with the coach and becoming a more respected individual amongst the playing group
  • A DPP who is a ball magnet and tackling beast when given adequate midfield time.

THE DOWNSIDE

Will be competing with quality players for a midfield spot

Poor disposal efficiency at 61.8% in 2016

THE VERDICT

Touk is an exciting prospect heading in to 2017, depending on some variables being in his favour. Do your due-diligence on him and track his preseason and more importantly his role whilst playing in the preseason games.

To make it simple if he plays good midfield time (which I expect) pick him. If he doesn’t, move on to the next option.

HIGHLY LIKELY

What’s your call on Touk Miller in 2017?

Nicki Boy

Have a chat with Nicki Boy on Twitter: @Nick_Wealands

Jock Reynolds Coach KingsThis article has been penned as part of the Jock Reynolds Community Series, where anyone from within our proud community can have their say in front of their peers. These men and women have displayed the spirit of togetherness, positivity and community that we value significantly.

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27 Comments

Kev · 09/12/2016 at 10:34

Nice write up, Nicki Boy. A bit to think about. In years gone past I've used the way a guy finishes the year as a good indicator of what they'll do next season. With Miller though I just can't ignore why this happened. Even if he keeps his midfield spot with returning/new players it's possible he becomes part of a midfield rotation which limits his midfield minutes.

A 95 average isn't out of the question, I feel his standard deviation will be huge depending on how much time he gets in the middle week-to-week

The Bont · 09/12/2016 at 10:52

The stars aligned for touk mid season , Ablett down , no swallow , no o meara , no Prestia and he came out and proved his worth . But like you said with all the incoming talent will he get a run through the guts ?
I'm a little bit more synical than yourself and I don't see Barlow playing anywhere but the guts, hall perhaps slightly less but still heavily involved , I think Hanley will be rotated through as will Lyons and their newly squired young guns leaving little time for Miller . If he was a part of their starting midfield rotation he definitely has all the talents but I just can't see him getting a regular gig in there unless those injuries strike again .
Interesting read all the same Nicki hope he proves me wrong for you

    Nick Wealands · 09/12/2016 at 16:40

    Solid points here Bont, he's gonna be a player that if gets the role will be picked or if he doesn't will be thrown out

Nick Wealands · 09/12/2016 at 10:53

Absolutely spot on here Kev, it will be tough for him even with a midfield spot
I still wouldn't rule him out as an after bye pick up as if history is to repeat itself the Gold Coast midfield should be decimated by then

Jack · 09/12/2016 at 10:55

It's more unlikely than likely for me, on the radar though. I don't think the forwards are as bad this year as most are saying. Sure, we don't have the 3 guys who averaged 110ppg anymore but I still think the top6 will average around 100 and I agree with Kev that this guy will be 95 at best, so it's a no for me.

LEKD0G · 09/12/2016 at 11:09

Been looking at him long and hard but I have major concerns with the roles of various suns players…think Touk gets squeezed into the forward line and his scoring drops. However if he shows me something in the preseason he's in

Jackson · 09/12/2016 at 11:19

You know who this bloke reminds me of going into last year? Sam Gray from Port. Finished the 2015 season with a bang alike Touk did this year.
Reckon he's a burn man in disguise, too many mid prospects at GC pushing him out.

    Kev · 09/12/2016 at 11:31

    That prick has a special page in my never again burn book!

gaveday · 09/12/2016 at 11:30

He's also bloody young folks. so he will get better – massive questions marks over usage and game time.
Perhaps to big to start with him in rd1. Watchlist.

Kev · 09/12/2016 at 11:30

G'day fellas, bit off topic but I'm doing a writeup for Nankervis. Can someone give me his price? Cheers

    The Bont · 09/12/2016 at 12:48

    366k
    Mate

Emma · 09/12/2016 at 11:32

What about Isacc Smith can he get back to 90 plus average now that Lewis and Mitchell are gone?

    TRIGGER HAPPY · 09/12/2016 at 14:51

    Good point another one worth putting on the watch list

TRIGGER HAPPY · 09/12/2016 at 14:51

With the changes to our fwd line you can't really rule anyone out so I will watch closely in pre season

As GC have early bye unless he is a keeper probably no but will watch from afar.

One of the new rooks with dpp much more likely to get a start getting gig.

I N Pieman · 09/12/2016 at 15:14

Think I'd rather Heeney at a similar price. He will get plenty of mid time. Not ruling Touk out yet though. Nice argument & arcticle Nicki

Nick Wealands · 09/12/2016 at 16:42

Another interesting point about Touk fellas is with injuries galore over the last 2 years at Gold Coast, will they play him in the guts so that there is some kind of consistency to the midfield, there are probably 4-5 players better than him in that role but are always missing games.
Rocket might bite the bullet and say enough is enough and keep him there for good

BarronVonCrow · 09/12/2016 at 17:19

You've nailed it all, mate.

Think it's too early to make the call one way or the other on him. Definitely needs to be watched in the pre-season to see where he lines up.

wombatsfc · 09/12/2016 at 21:23

Thanks Nicki Boy, I've been watching Touk for a while now and believe that he'll be breaking out this year. He's an inside midfielder and suns don't have one of them anymore now that Gaz has declared that he wants to win the coleman. The inside role also explains his D/E, compared to other inside mids he does OK on D/E.
He comes from Calder Cannons Footy Factory he was taught the right way to play.
He has the genes to run all day, his mum is an international marathon runner who still competes
He loves to tackle, ave 5 p/game since day 1
He'll be 21 in 2017, that's right folks the change from boy to man should be complete so he'll be stronger, calmer, more confident and more competitive. Best value forward after Travis Cloke

    I N Pieman · 09/12/2016 at 22:07

    Ahhh wombat. Had some client visits in Nagambie & Shepparton today. Noticed some of your brothers & sisters dead on the side of the road on the way up. If you think that of Cloke, you'll be joining them

    throttlefinger · 09/12/2016 at 22:19

    Pedigree and talent can only go so far, my friend. Think opportunity is the main hurdle here.

    Your Cloke comment made me checked the calendar. And am I hearing you correctly that your forward line could have both Cloke and Boyd? Are you, as you and your lovely country folk say, winding us up?

      Keenbutclueless · 10/12/2016 at 01:20

      In the best possible way. Wonderful write up all the way through, then drops the Cloke line in right at the end. Really clever Wombats. Classic.

      wombatsfc · 11/12/2016 at 00:08

      Hiya trumpster, have you blokes declared war on us yet? I don't think opportunity will be a problem for Touk and Ahmed as the suns wont be giving draftees the primary midfield roles and as Nikki Boy pointed out they are pretty low on experienced young inside mids.
      Cloke & Boyd are both on the radar atmo, Crameri, Boyd, Cloke, Stringer, and a couple of those doggie midgets looks like a premiership fwd line and a defenders nightmare. It will be interesting to see how it functions in Nab.

        throttlefinger · 11/12/2016 at 00:55

        Yeah, that's Doggies forward line sounds ominous, yet only so in theory. Cloke and Boyd have much to prove, one that his goal kicking gaffs was a Pies induced and Boyd that his Finals play wasn't his finest moment.

        Same question marks with Touk. Ate the biggest slice of cake as the main mid at the backend of the season and now can he do the same with Gaz, Hall and the rest coming back. I don't see. But felt the same with Hall last year. Feel the cement around Rocket's plan hasn't dried yet so they are still figuring out on the field what works best.

        No comment about Trump. Boil quickly about the topic. Hope he doesn't destroy the world…or at least wait until after my GWS wins the flag.

CJ84 · 09/12/2016 at 21:34

I like this guy, however its a no for me in 2017. I would rather the fallen proven premo as a starting pick as compared to the breakout kid

throttlefinger · 09/12/2016 at 21:50

Well done, NB. Would say that there's too much unknown to give Touk the nod. He had a choice situation at the later half. Now more mids have been added so can't really see him having a strong SC ave. At least for the price. Potential is certainly there. Most likely a no but we shall wait and see how this new Suns team operates and who are their main SC operators.

Moustachio · 10/12/2016 at 10:36

Good write up, think a no for me unless he blitzes the nab.

I remember this exact sentiment last year: "The game is well past Barlow as a midfielder with the need of run and gun players to match the pace of the modern game" which turned out to be codswaddle. Not that Barlow is SC relevant this year, but I've learned it's more about the tank than the top speed (his injuries notwithstanding)

neil DemonsDelight · 10/12/2016 at 11:55

Great stuff NB Disposal Efficiency and price the real problems Jom much better

Comments are closed.