Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell 2017

Reckon Hawthorn know what they’re doing?

It was all pretty Hawthorn-like early doors. In the door came Tom Mitchell and pick 23. Out goes Brad Hill and pick 14. Very solid. Very Hawthorn-like.

Then Gill calls to let me know Sam Mitchell is off to West Coast. Nearly choked to death on a BBQ shape. Then they’re bending over to cop it off St Kilda to get their hands on pick 10. And now Jordan Lewis is off to Melbourne for bugger all.

Stuff me. The last few days of trade period will be very interesting. I’m sure Hawthorn have more than just a Jaeger O’Meara to pull out of their pip before 3pm on Thursday.

All this got me to thinking about how the Mitchell and Lewis moves will impact on their Supercoach 2017 relevance.

Does a change of environment mean that they’re likely to increase their output in 2017? Does a new challenge breathe new life into their fantasy bones? Do these developments change how we prioritise them as selections in our fantasy teams next season?

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

What does history tell us?

History isn’t just about boring old pricks who got around in crap boats discovering shit kids.

Looking back on past fantasy footy situations is a fantastic way to predict how things might play out in the future. This whole process has given me a real respect for history, and for those who love history.

Let’s have a quick look at what happened to players of similar tooth length and class after they moved clubs at similar stages of their career.

Stevie “Steven Johnson” J was shown the door at Geelong at the age of 32 and played with the AFL Giants this year. While he showed he had more than a trick or two left up the sleeve, his solid season didn’t translate to any significant spike in his fantasy output. His average of 85 Supercoach points was his second worst fantasy season since 2006. However, there’s only one Steven Johnson. Hard to draw a parallel between him, Mitchell, Lewis or with anyone who has ever pulled on a jumper in the history of our game.

His old mate Chappy was the central character in many of our homo erotic fantasy fantasies in his prime between 2006 and 2o12. He headed over to Essendon at the age of 31 after a hamstring riddled final season with the Cats. He started like the Chappy of old at Essendon averaging 116 in his first three games, matching his career best season average of 116 (2010). Chappy was back. Then father time tapped him on the shoulder. The old body started struggling. He’d only score one more ton in the next 3 months. Cooked. Again, hard to extract reliable paralytics here. Chappy went into his first season at Essendon with his body on its last legs. Both Sammy and Jordo will head into season 2017 in reasonable nick.

In 2013 Nick Dal Santo pissed off to North Melbourne at the age of 29. He’d averaged a beautiful 108 SC in his last five years at the Saints, but let a lot of us down with a 97 average in the last of those five years. He played a very similar role at North in his first year there, and improved in a solid first year at Norf to average 103. Reasonable paralysis can be drawn between Dal and Lewis. Similar age. Same point in their careers. Similar class. Similar historical averages. Similar slight drop in Supercoach and/or AFL Fantasy output in their final season at their original club. Interesting. Very interesting.

So – history my old old friend. My extensive research, and comprehensive sample size here is telling me we can perhaps expect a slight increase in output unless the old prick’s body falls over? Thanks history. You can piss off now.

Jordan Lewis

Club: Melbourne | Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $535K

Jordan Lewis heads to Melbourne with a solid fantasy resume. He averaged 99 Supercoach points in 2016, 103 in 2015 and a career high 109 in 2014. His AFL Fantasy averages are even better.

His selection percentages have never been high. For the seven seasons after 2007 his annual average hovered between the mid 80’s and 90’s and it looked as if he’d be that type of footballer who would lurk the halls of  fantasy no-mans land.  Not good enough to take a step up as a regular premium midfielder. Not enough value in him as a mid priced option.

Then he proved himself in the guts at Hawthorn. No one saw his 2014 season coming. He put his hand up as a fair dinkum midfielder and improved on his 2013 season average by 18 Supercoach points. He’d proven many very good judges wrong. In the same breath his price had elevated to a place where he’d compete with the pointy end of the competition for a place in our fantasy teams.

As is often the case the opposition put more work into him, and since we’ve seen his seasonal average drift down to settle at around 100.

So he’s off to Melbourne. Where does he slot in? Melbourne has built some pretty fierce depth in the midfield. Nathan Jones. Bernie Vince. Jack Viney. Christian Petracca. Clayton Oliver. Dom Tyson. Angus Brayshaw. You’d have to say a Jordan Lewis as it stands holds down a predominately midfield role. But with that kind of depth and emerging talent, I think we can expect him to spend more time forward than he did at Hawthorn.

I do see him improving on his 2016 average. I do see him generating a little bit of cash. But as a purely MID eligible player who may spend more time FWD I can’t see enough upside in him to justify a spot in my starting lineup.

Current Verdict: No

Sam Mitchell

Club: West Coast | Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $565K

We all know what he’s capable of. We all know he’s given us plenty of Supercoach & AFL Fantasy joy over the years. We all know he’s had a relatively good run of late with injury.

But he’s 34 now. Thirty bloody four.

I wish you all the very best of luck in the West in 2017 Sam. I think you may well come out and dominate early doors next year. But Father Time is a prick mate, I can assure you of that. I have no doubt he’ll tap you on the shoulder early next season.

Current Verdict: No.

Look forward to kicking this around below community!


John · 19/10/2016 at 11:25

Christian Petracca

    jockreynolds · 19/10/2016 at 11:33

    Cheers John! Keep calling him Daniel. Used to coach a Daniel Petracca. Not a bad footballer either.

Nathan · 19/10/2016 at 11:30

Guys like gaff and petracca will bebig improvers nexf season with mitchell and lewis going to there new clubs

Kev · 19/10/2016 at 12:24

Good to have you back on deck, Jock!

What's your take on the hawks shipping out these two guys for next to nothing? I can understand their reasoning but a bit of a dick move imo

    jockreynolds · 19/10/2016 at 13:31

    Absolutely dead set fantastic to be back Kev, good to have you back as well mate. The podcast will be back next Tuesday.

    Look – I can't help but feel that they have something up their sleeve over the next 24 hours. They did have to clear out some salary cap space so I can see in a way how it kind of makes some kind of sense.. but stuff me… they've given a shitload away for very very little in return talent wise.

      Kev · 20/10/2016 at 08:37

      The bastards always manage to pull something out of their pip! Reports this morning saying Jaeger trade has a long way to go, if it hasn't got legs they've effectively replaced Smitch and Lewis with Tmitch.

        jockreynolds · 20/10/2016 at 09:19

        Hearing the same Kev. Would be staggered if it didn't happen though. There is the slightest of chances he slips to Essendon

richard · 19/10/2016 at 16:54

Hope you had a great time at Hastings Jock and good to see the articles starting back.Can see S.Mitchell play one more year and then
head into the assistance coach job next to Simmo.Too pricey and not worth the punt with other younger A grade mids going around.Lewis
probably a wait and see and maybe an upgrade target at some stage,but i doubt it.

    jockreynolds · 20/10/2016 at 09:22

    Morning there Richard thanks very much mate, we had an absolute ball. Higgo's always a bit of a pain in the arse with his tidyness but we had a ball.
    Yeah, Sammy is doing the right thing for sure. Has an armchair ride into a nice assistant coaching gig. Agree with you on Lewy as well

I N Pieman · 19/10/2016 at 17:29

Great to have ya back Jock. Staggering to send your reigning best & fairest & runner up to the tip for nothing. Just mind boggling. If the JOM deal falls through there stuffed. Draft is ok this year. But next year is a ball tearer. Shits all over this one. Those giving up there first rounder will spew up! To me Smitch & Lewis fantasy wise are as relevant as my ex wife, kicked to the curb some time back

    jockreynolds · 20/10/2016 at 09:23

    Great to be back Pie! How have you been mate? I'm hearing the same about next years draft. Makes me laugh all the more for the trade swap deal Bainsey at the Saints worked with the Hawks. Anytime you can get one up on Hawthorn is a good time

Neil demonsdelight · 19/10/2016 at 22:34

great article particularly for Derek and myself for opposite reasons.AGREE ABOUT MITCH getting on a bit never liked lewis but now hes a champ.Lewis will be particularly good for brayshaw tracca and young oliver .Without doubt big improvers 2017.Interesting to see Dereks spin know he thought highly of both./ cant wait for next season bring it on .Good to hear from you Jock looking to a big year from you and the lads specially coachkings bigger this year

    jockreynolds · 20/10/2016 at 09:26

    Gday there Neil! Great to see you in here. I'll tell you what – looking at Melbourne's midfield yesterday – its developing into a RIPPER. Class. Depth. Speed. Experience. Bulk. Very happy times ahead

      neil demonsdelight · 20/10/2016 at 21:07

      So right oh great one.Mitchell is 4 years older than Lewis Jock and lewis is the same age as Picken who is in his prime now.I had Picken 2 years in a row but Lewis would have to be sub 530 for mine and with Big Maxy putting it down his throat could get better.In the bulldog game LEWIS was beaten by only two players for possies and efficiency.They were elder statesmen boyd and mitch The 3 still have it but Lewis has more upside and will be in my team at some stage

        jockreynolds · 21/10/2016 at 09:28

        Spot on mate – great times ahead for the red and the blue!

jack · 20/10/2016 at 09:31

Even if Hawks get Jaeger its been a disaster for them i reckon. Titch, Jaeger and Vickery in, SMitch, Lewis, Hill out and so many draft picks gone. A trainwreck!!!!
Normally when a player nominates your club its a good thing as you get them for unders. Where did it all go wrong?

    I N Pieman · 20/10/2016 at 16:04

    Yeah Jack. They sold the farm & both the neighbours farms. No draft picks for the next 2 years. That could come back to bite. But they do have their pick 88 for Sam Mitch. Ironically I believe that's their first pick this year

    Danners · 20/10/2016 at 20:32

    Not too sure why that got rid of Lewis, it would be tough for Titch to take control of the midfield which he has relied on Sydney's midfielders the past years

gator59 · 20/10/2016 at 13:25

Great to have you back Jock you beautiful man….What's your thoughts on what the Mighty Saints trades… I think we've done well and to snag the hawks no 1 future draft pick.. 2 no 1 draft picks next year WELCOME MR FYFE !!

    Jack · 20/10/2016 at 18:02

    Saints and Freo the 2 winners for mine. A couple of others would be pleased like Richmond, Melbourne & Carlton

      I N Pieman · 20/10/2016 at 20:09

      Agreed jack in the Tigers. Just doubled there midfield from dusty & Cotchin. And a capable ruckman. They did well all things considered. Saints & Freo I agree really did well. Dees added 2 quality experienced players with stuff all to play with. And the Carlton Giants did the usual, grabbed what they couldn't afford to keep

        jockreynolds · 21/10/2016 at 09:31

        Looking at what freos done more closely I'd almost have to say they take the cake – very solid

    jockreynolds · 21/10/2016 at 09:30

    Mate it is wonderful to be back!! Fresh as a daisy and pumped to shred the preseason a new one. Draft-se – couldn't be happier mate. We've added 2 1/2 blokes who'll waltz straight into the best 22. Depth is looking brilliant. We're well placed at the draft. GO YOU SAINTS!

      I N Pieman · 21/10/2016 at 13:09

      A mighty fine reach around they did on Graham Wright for Pick 10. Shark move to the Max. Think the Saints will be a very strong team in 2018 at the latest

Danners · 20/10/2016 at 20:30

Good to have you back Jock! Mitchell is a definite no, but Lewis though. With big Maxy hitting it down his throat every time, it wouldn't surprise me if he improves as he is only 30 as well. Caddy and Steele both look like enticing options though

    jockreynolds · 21/10/2016 at 09:33

    Gday Danners so rapt to be back. Mate I hadn't put much thought into the prospect of big Maxwell slotting it down his gob. I do reckon he'll improve a bit, I just dont reckon he'll improve to the degree where I'd see him taking a starting spot in the team. He's at that awkward price point where you want to be pretty sure a bloke is.. say $80K underpriced if you know what I mean?

    Great to see you in here ready for a big preseason mate!!

Keenbutclueless · 21/10/2016 at 01:49

Vardy at WCE will be a very cheap enticing option. Should be DPP. Will watch preseason with interest. With Collingwood losing a lot of defenders, should be some value there. Expecting Langdon to be a big improver next year and will keep an eye on Scharenburg as well.

    jockreynolds · 21/10/2016 at 09:35

    Gday there Keeno. I cant wait to sit down and pull apart what all these trade moves mean to us in SC 2017. Plenty of fantasy significant movement. Good to see you in here mate!

    Kev · 21/10/2016 at 11:55

    Won't be going near Vardy. Can't trust his body, only managed 20-odd games over 5 seasons and missed 2014 entirely. Diid play one game this year so probably won't get a full 40% injury discount. Started the year at 293k, 30% put him at 205k, 20% – 234k.

      I N Pieman · 21/10/2016 at 13:07

      Scharenberg if he's fit to play round 1 will be in every team. I'm really hoping he gets a run at it. Absolutely uber elite junior who's lost 3 seasons now to injury. The type of player he is should make him a very good SC scorer as well. Vardy might be an R3 option if he's cheap enough. Not many will pick Thumper, but I'll be having a very close look. If he goes back to his old role then look out. Serious value

      Keenbutclueless · 21/10/2016 at 23:08

      I hear you on Vardy. My curiosity is up because WCE seemingly had a few choices: Minson, Witts, Petrie and maybe a run at Clarke. But they chose Vardy. Have to think they have done the due diligence. If so and he does start in the ruck, might consider him as R3 or F8. I agree that 205 sounds right. Reckon might only need him for the first 8 weeks to make enough money to trade.

NutSack · 24/10/2016 at 01:17

hahahaha Dirty Corker!!! that made my day!!!!!

PS you aint gettin those pliers back off wayno i dont reckon. keep me updated

Big Panda · 03/03/2017 at 20:25

Hey, I'm a long time fan and reader of your blog, first time commenter. Just wanted to say this post really hit home with the stuff I've been looking into. Thanks man

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