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Jock’s Supercoach 2017 Notebook. Week 6.

Published by Jock on

Jordan Lewis and Sam Mitchell 2017

Reckon Hawthorn know what they’re doing?

It was all pretty Hawthorn-like early doors. In the door came Tom Mitchell and pick 23. Out goes Brad Hill and pick 14. Very solid. Very Hawthorn-like.

Then Gill calls to let me know Sam Mitchell is off to West Coast. Nearly choked to death on a BBQ shape. Then they’re bending over to cop it off St Kilda to get their hands on pick 10. And now Jordan Lewis is off to Melbourne for bugger all.

Stuff me. The last few days of trade period will be very interesting. I’m sure Hawthorn have more than just a Jaeger O’Meara to pull out of their pip before 3pm on Thursday.

All this got me to thinking about how the Mitchell and Lewis moves will impact on their Supercoach 2017 relevance.

Does a change of environment mean that they’re likely to increase their output in 2017? Does a new challenge breathe new life into their fantasy bones? Do these developments change how we prioritise them as selections in our fantasy teams next season?

Jock Reynolds Supercoach Magazine 2017

What does history tell us?

History isn’t just about boring old pricks who got around in crap boats discovering shit kids.

Looking back on past fantasy footy situations is a fantastic way to predict how things might play out in the future. This whole process has given me a real respect for history, and for those who love history.

Let’s have a quick look at what happened to players of similar tooth length and class after they moved clubs at similar stages of their career.

Stevie “Steven Johnson” J was shown the door at Geelong at the age of 32 and played with the AFL Giants this year. While he showed he had more than a trick or two left up the sleeve, his solid season didn’t translate to any significant spike in his fantasy output. His average of 85 Supercoach points was his second worst fantasy season since 2006. However, there’s only one Steven Johnson. Hard to draw a parallel between him, Mitchell, Lewis or with anyone who has ever pulled on a jumper in the history of our game.

His old mate Chappy was the central character in many of our homo erotic fantasy fantasies in his prime between 2006 and 2o12. He headed over to Essendon at the age of 31 after a hamstring riddled final season with the Cats. He started like the Chappy of old at Essendon averaging 116 in his first three games, matching his career best season average of 116 (2010). Chappy was back. Then father time tapped him on the shoulder. The old body started struggling. He’d only score one more ton in the next 3 months. Cooked. Again, hard to extract reliable paralytics here. Chappy went into his first season at Essendon with his body on its last legs. Both Sammy and Jordo will head into season 2017 in reasonable nick.

In 2013 Nick Dal Santo pissed off to North Melbourne at the age of 29. He’d averaged a beautiful 108 SC in his last five years at the Saints, but let a lot of us down with a 97 average in the last of those five years. He played a very similar role at North in his first year there, and improved in a solid first year at Norf to average 103. Reasonable paralysis can be drawn between Dal and Lewis. Similar age. Same point in their careers. Similar class. Similar historical averages. Similar slight drop in Supercoach and/or AFL Fantasy output in their final season at their original club. Interesting. Very interesting.

So – history my old old friend. My extensive research, and comprehensive sample size here is telling me we can perhaps expect a slight increase in output unless the old prick’s body falls over? Thanks history. You can piss off now.


Jordan Lewis

Club: Melbourne | Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $535K

Jordan Lewis heads to Melbourne with a solid fantasy resume. He averaged 99 Supercoach points in 2016, 103 in 2015 and a career high 109 in 2014. His AFL Fantasy averages are even better.

His selection percentages have never been high. For the seven seasons after 2007 his annual average hovered between the mid 80’s and 90’s and it looked as if he’d be that type of footballer who would lurk the halls of  fantasy no-mans land.  Not good enough to take a step up as a regular premium midfielder. Not enough value in him as a mid priced option.

Then he proved himself in the guts at Hawthorn. No one saw his 2014 season coming. He put his hand up as a fair dinkum midfielder and improved on his 2013 season average by 18 Supercoach points. He’d proven many very good judges wrong. In the same breath his price had elevated to a place where he’d compete with the pointy end of the competition for a place in our fantasy teams.

As is often the case the opposition put more work into him, and since we’ve seen his seasonal average drift down to settle at around 100.

So he’s off to Melbourne. Where does he slot in? Melbourne has built some pretty fierce depth in the midfield. Nathan Jones. Bernie Vince. Jack Viney. Christian Petracca. Clayton Oliver. Dom Tyson. Angus Brayshaw. You’d have to say a Jordan Lewis as it stands holds down a predominately midfield role. But with that kind of depth and emerging talent, I think we can expect him to spend more time forward than he did at Hawthorn.

I do see him improving on his 2016 average. I do see him generating a little bit of cash. But as a purely MID eligible player who may spend more time FWD I can’t see enough upside in him to justify a spot in my starting lineup.

Current Verdict: No


Sam Mitchell

Club: West Coast | Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $565K

We all know what he’s capable of. We all know he’s given us plenty of Supercoach & AFL Fantasy joy over the years. We all know he’s had a relatively good run of late with injury.

But he’s 34 now. Thirty bloody four.

I wish you all the very best of luck in the West in 2017 Sam. I think you may well come out and dominate early doors next year. But Father Time is a prick mate, I can assure you of that. I have no doubt he’ll tap you on the shoulder early next season.

Current Verdict: No.


Look forward to kicking this around below community!


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John

Christian Petracca

Nathan

Guys like gaff and petracca will bebig improvers nexf season with mitchell and lewis going to there new clubs

Kev

Good to have you back on deck, Jock!

What's your take on the hawks shipping out these two guys for next to nothing? I can understand their reasoning but a bit of a dick move imo

Kev

The bastards always manage to pull something out of their pip! Reports this morning saying Jaeger trade has a long way to go, if it hasn't got legs they've effectively replaced Smitch and Lewis with Tmitch.

richard

Hope you had a great time at Hastings Jock and good to see the articles starting back.Can see S.Mitchell play one more year and then
head into the assistance coach job next to Simmo.Too pricey and not worth the punt with other younger A grade mids going around.Lewis
probably a wait and see and maybe an upgrade target at some stage,but i doubt it.

I N Pieman

Great to have ya back Jock. Staggering to send your reigning best & fairest & runner up to the tip for nothing. Just mind boggling. If the JOM deal falls through there stuffed. Draft is ok this year. But next year is a ball tearer. Shits all over this one. Those giving up there first rounder will spew up! To me Smitch & Lewis fantasy wise are as relevant as my ex wife, kicked to the curb some time back

jack

Even if Hawks get Jaeger its been a disaster for them i reckon. Titch, Jaeger and Vickery in, SMitch, Lewis, Hill out and so many draft picks gone. A trainwreck!!!!
Normally when a player nominates your club its a good thing as you get them for unders. Where did it all go wrong?

Danners

Not too sure why that got rid of Lewis, it would be tough for Titch to take control of the midfield which he has relied on Sydney's midfielders the past years

gator59

Great to have you back Jock you beautiful man….What's your thoughts on what the Mighty Saints trades… I think we've done well and to snag the hawks no 1 future draft pick.. 2 no 1 draft picks next year WELCOME MR FYFE !!

Jack

Saints and Freo the 2 winners for mine. A couple of others would be pleased like Richmond, Melbourne & Carlton

Danners

Good to have you back Jock! Mitchell is a definite no, but Lewis though. With big Maxy hitting it down his throat every time, it wouldn't surprise me if he improves as he is only 30 as well. Caddy and Steele both look like enticing options though

Keenbutclueless

Vardy at WCE will be a very cheap enticing option. Should be DPP. Will watch preseason with interest. With Collingwood losing a lot of defenders, should be some value there. Expecting Langdon to be a big improver next year and will keep an eye on Scharenburg as well.

Kev

Won't be going near Vardy. Can't trust his body, only managed 20-odd games over 5 seasons and missed 2014 entirely. Diid play one game this year so probably won't get a full 40% injury discount. Started the year at 293k, 30% put him at 205k, 20% – 234k.

Keenbutclueless

I hear you on Vardy. My curiosity is up because WCE seemingly had a few choices: Minson, Witts, Petrie and maybe a run at Clarke. But they chose Vardy. Have to think they have done the due diligence. If so and he does start in the ruck, might consider him as R3 or F8. I agree that 205 sounds right. Reckon might only need him for the first 8 weeks to make enough money to trade.

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