Reckon Hawthorn know what they’re doing?
It was all pretty Hawthorn-like early doors. In the door came Tom Mitchell and pick 23. Out goes Brad Hill and pick 14. Very solid. Very Hawthorn-like.
Then Gill calls to let me know Sam Mitchell is off to West Coast. Nearly choked to death on a BBQ shape. Then they’re bending over to cop it off St Kilda to get their hands on pick 10. And now Jordan Lewis is off to Melbourne for bugger all.
Stuff me. The last few days of trade period will be very interesting. I’m sure Hawthorn have more than just a Jaeger O’Meara to pull out of their pip before 3pm on Thursday.
All this got me to thinking about how the Mitchell and Lewis moves will impact on their Supercoach 2017 relevance.
Does a change of environment mean that they’re likely to increase their output in 2017? Does a new challenge breathe new life into their fantasy bones? Do these developments change how we prioritise them as selections in our fantasy teams next season?
What does history tell us?
History isn’t just about boring old pricks who got around in crap boats discovering shit kids.
Looking back on past fantasy footy situations is a fantastic way to predict how things might play out in the future. This whole process has given me a real respect for history, and for those who love history.
Let’s have a quick look at what happened to players of similar tooth length and class after they moved clubs at similar stages of their career.
Stevie “Steven Johnson” J was shown the door at Geelong at the age of 32 and played with the AFL Giants this year. While he showed he had more than a trick or two left up the sleeve, his solid season didn’t translate to any significant spike in his fantasy output. His average of 85 Supercoach points was his second worst fantasy season since 2006. However, there’s only one Steven Johnson. Hard to draw a parallel between him, Mitchell, Lewis or with anyone who has ever pulled on a jumper in the history of our game.
His old mate Chappy was the central character in many of our homo erotic fantasy fantasies in his prime between 2006 and 2o12. He headed over to Essendon at the age of 31 after a hamstring riddled final season with the Cats. He started like the Chappy of old at Essendon averaging 116 in his first three games, matching his career best season average of 116 (2010). Chappy was back. Then father time tapped him on the shoulder. The old body started struggling. He’d only score one more ton in the next 3 months. Cooked. Again, hard to extract reliable paralytics here. Chappy went into his first season at Essendon with his body on its last legs. Both Sammy and Jordo will head into season 2017 in reasonable nick.
In 2013 Nick Dal Santo pissed off to North Melbourne at the age of 29. He’d averaged a beautiful 108 SC in his last five years at the Saints, but let a lot of us down with a 97 average in the last of those five years. He played a very similar role at North in his first year there, and improved in a solid first year at Norf to average 103. Reasonable paralysis can be drawn between Dal and Lewis. Similar age. Same point in their careers. Similar class. Similar historical averages. Similar slight drop in Supercoach and/or AFL Fantasy output in their final season at their original club. Interesting. Very interesting.
At least St Kilda got pick 25 for Dal Santo.
— ADK (@Jizzlobberz) October 18, 2016
So – history my old old friend. My extensive research, and comprehensive sample size here is telling me we can perhaps expect a slight increase in output unless the old prick’s body falls over? Thanks history. You can piss off now.
Club: Melbourne | Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $535K
Jordan Lewis heads to Melbourne with a solid fantasy resume. He averaged 99 Supercoach points in 2016, 103 in 2015 and a career high 109 in 2014. His AFL Fantasy averages are even better.
His selection percentages have never been high. For the seven seasons after 2007 his annual average hovered between the mid 80’s and 90’s and it looked as if he’d be that type of footballer who would lurk the halls of fantasy no-mans land. Not good enough to take a step up as a regular premium midfielder. Not enough value in him as a mid priced option.
Then he proved himself in the guts at Hawthorn. No one saw his 2014 season coming. He put his hand up as a fair dinkum midfielder and improved on his 2013 season average by 18 Supercoach points. He’d proven many very good judges wrong. In the same breath his price had elevated to a place where he’d compete with the pointy end of the competition for a place in our fantasy teams.
As is often the case the opposition put more work into him, and since we’ve seen his seasonal average drift down to settle at around 100.
So he’s off to Melbourne. Where does he slot in? Melbourne has built some pretty fierce depth in the midfield. Nathan Jones. Bernie Vince. Jack Viney. Christian Petracca. Clayton Oliver. Dom Tyson. Angus Brayshaw. You’d have to say a Jordan Lewis as it stands holds down a predominately midfield role. But with that kind of depth and emerging talent, I think we can expect him to spend more time forward than he did at Hawthorn.
I do see him improving on his 2016 average. I do see him generating a little bit of cash. But as a purely MID eligible player who may spend more time FWD I can’t see enough upside in him to justify a spot in my starting lineup.
Current Verdict: No
Lewis deal is done. Melbourne trade its 3rd & 4th round selections (48 and 66) for Hawthorn’s 3rd & 4th selections (57 and 68). — Jock Reynolds (@jock_reynolds) October 18, 2016
Club: West Coast | Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $565K
We all know what he’s capable of. We all know he’s given us plenty of Supercoach & AFL Fantasy joy over the years. We all know he’s had a relatively good run of late with injury.
But he’s 34 now. Thirty bloody four.
I wish you all the very best of luck in the West in 2017 Sam. I think you may well come out and dominate early doors next year. But Father Time is a prick mate, I can assure you of that. I have no doubt he’ll tap you on the shoulder early next season.
Current Verdict: No.
Great for Mitchell’s coaching future, and great for @WestCoastEagles – he’ll keep his team mates bloody honest
— Jock Reynolds (@jock_reynolds) October 11, 2016