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Jock’s Supercoach 2017 Notebook. Week 1.

Published by Jock on

Supercoach 2017 NotebookThose of us serious about a crack at Supercoach 2017 domination start their preseason this week.

How good’s the smell of a fresh Supercoach research notebook? A clean slate. New life. New opportunity. A fresh start. I’ve filled a couple of pages already and I’ll be updating you on my progress as the weeks go by here on a Wednesday.

Remember friends, the podcast is rolling on throughout the off season. We started to “unpack” some of the trade rumours floating around the joint this week, and I’ve been able to let you in on some disturbing untold developments at the Brisbane Lions.

NEW PODCAST: The trade rumour mill in full swing

Patrick Cripps

Likely 2017 position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $576,000 | My assessment: Consider

Get off the gear All Australian selection panel. You mad pricks.

Patrick Cripps outperformed my expectations this season by that much it’s not funny. Finished the season with the most clearances in a season since Brett Rattan in 1999. Fair effort for a 21 year old carrying the load in the guts in an average midfield.

I was discussing this with a group of kids at a clinic down at Hastings just yesterday. You want to look for a nice, natural and consistent progression towards fantasy elitehood with your premium bulls.

I like the look of the Cripps progression. Average of 39 in a handful of games in his first season. 96 last year and showing signs. 107 this year. Like it. Like it a lot.

What we need to ask ourselves when considering him next year is this: can he go to the next level? The back end of his season suggests he can. He backed out an average of 132 in his last 6 games.

It will be a matter of weighing Cripps up against the likes of Dangerfield, Lachie Neale, The Bont, Pendlebury, Hanno, Treloar. Will be a bloody interesting premium midfield selection discussion over the preseason.

Brayden Fiorini

Likely position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $??? | My assessment: Consider

It was the last round of the season. It was the kid’s second game of AFL footy. 125 Supercoach points later the name Brayden Fiorini was scrawled into the old 2017 Supercoach research notebook.

Mark my words. This performance was no flash in the pan. Rocket knows what he has on his hands here. He locked him in with a contract extension in June despite the kid having not played a senior game and having a stuffed knee.

Was plucked in the first round of the 2015 draft as a slick outside midfielder. Rocket and I have added some testicle to his game and he’s now able to do mix it with the big bastards on the inside.

And do you reckon Gold Coast might be a bit thin in the midfield in 2017? Prestia won’t be there. Jaeger’s pissing off. Swallow wants out. It’s all clicking into place for Braydo next year.

It’s all about starting price. Thanks to Pieman for this one – it looks as if he might start with an elevated pricetag despite just the two games.

Luke Parker

Likely position: MID | Estimated 2017 price: $598,000 | My assessment: Upgrade target

There’s been talk that he could pick up some forward DPP eligibility. If that’s the case I’d put some serious thought into starting him next year. I’m not sure that will happen though folks, he’s spent a hell of a lot of game time in the guts especially in the back half of the season

The thing with Luke, and I’ve been at him about this for some time, is that he WILL have a flat run during the season. For that reason and at this price I’d recommend we lay off him early doors and look for that drop in price. It will come. Don’t worry about that. At this stage he’ll be an early to mid season upgrade target for JR Brumby FC.

What are your thoughts community? Any names locked into your notebook for 2017 yet?

THE OFF SEASON TRADE RUMOUR FILE. CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST.


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pod

Any player with their name starting with Z, a;so Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Doch, Shaw, Fiorini, Menegola et al.

@wheels_1987

Zac Dawson?

@wheels_1987

Cripps is no for me… you answered why with the other premo selctions. but worth a look going into byes (if there are any)

Fiorini = awesome pick. this is the hardest part getting the rookies right at the start of the season and this is where we need nurturing

Parker at DPP is a lock, even if you have to lose your left arm to get him. If he not DPP then its a no until the price drop

TRIGGER HAPPY

Nice one jock.
The extractor is in that price range/option next year where there r just so many choices in the up and comers.
Neale, bont, treloar etc. Can't get Em all.
But think there needs to b a changing of the guard and some of these guys will earn a Guernsey.
And how can he not be in the 40 man AA squad? #1 for contested possessions in a team with really only has Gibbs as back up. Herculean!
And where is Zach Merrett and robbie gray?
C'mon AA. In teams which struggled all year these guys excelled.
Rocky running around in the blues midfield can only help cripps next year who may push forward more to snag a couple of sausage rolls. Gold for supercoach.

Fiorini definitely lockety lock lock at that price.

Boltons Blues

You can also lockety lock the doch for D1 in my opinion

SCaddict

Yes the great thing about Fiorini is that he SHOULD still be rookie priced only playing the 2 games this season and thus will be in every team should he be named for Rd1 2017. Otherwise if they priced him at his previous season average he would cost a whopping $462K which would obviously make him a no go zone for a kid who's had just one amazing game at senior level.

As much as I'd love to see Parker Power get FWD eligibility and be locked as everyone's F1 next season it's sadly just not going to happen. 🙁

Corn Boy is in that same bucket with the Bont and Neale for me. Will probably start with one or two of these lads but not sure which ones yet. Cripps and Bont will be similarly priced with Neale a little bit more just over the $600K price point. Early season draws will probably factor into my decision along with any interrupted preseasons.

Adam

Current structure I would like to adopt which includes 7 midfield premiums and the forward line very weak but there are several players heavily under-priced.
Def: Shaw, Simpson, Docherty, Laird, McKenzie, Thurlow, Hampton, Newman,
Mids: Pendlebury, Selwood, Kennedy, Fyfe, Ablett, Rockliff, Bontempelli, O'Meara, Myers, Freeman, rookie
Rucks: Gawn, Sandilands, rookie
Fwds: Bennell, Roughead, Elliot, Sheed, White, Turner, B Jack, C McCarthy

I N Pieman

Unfortunately Fiorini wont be rookie priced. The year before Menzel played the last 2 games for a 19 & a 119. Despite not playing for 4 years. Those 2 scores sent his price to 260k for the start of this season. With his 46 & 125 you'd expect his him be over 300k. And boy would take a sizable set of balls to pick him. I think the rule stinks. As it stands it takes 3 games for price movement

SCaddict

I tried to find rookies who played just a few games for the first time in 2015 to see what their 2016 starting prices were calculated at.

Blakely played just 1 game last year registering 37 SC and only got a 20% discount this season (37pts x $5,400 x 80% = $159K)

So looks like Fiorini will get a 20% discount at best which would still make him prohibitively expensive at $370K unfortunately,

Danners

If Fiorini is rookie priced he would be locked for me straight away. Unfortunately, he has played games and averaged 80 odd which means he would be priced at around $300k odd. This has happened to players in the past like Wells and Menzel this year since they played 2 games they were priced around $250k.
I'll probably having two of Cripps, Bont, Treloar in my team. Would like to have them all, but they'll be priced too high

Shane

Surely gray gets dpp….. And what will Riley bonner cost ? I'm guessing 180 k ?

pod

Let's hope so Shane, and with other potential dpp's like Hodge & SMitchell, we are looking at higher weekly SC scores, and who doesn't like a huge round score!?

SCaddict

I think there's a good chance that he will. He got added as FWD eligible in AFL Fantasy from Rd6 this season based on his player heat map.

Danners

Gray should get a DPP or I hope so, he did kick 4 goals in the last game. Bonner would be around $200k

I N Pieman

Ben Lennon has walked from the tigers. Wants a trade. Was a pick 12. Won't be worth that now. Reckon they'd be very lucky to get a late second round. From what I've seen, a 4th round pick & a mouldy sandwich would be about right

SCaddict

Barely worth a can of TAB and a chiko roll now.

SCaddict

You're probably right Jock. I was thinking in terms of early 80s pricing but I suppose inflation's a b1tch.

Haven't been to corner store in a while so I guess a snack sized spring rolls for Lennon it is!

Danners

Nah probably the clubs theme song since they will get rid of it for Prestia

Hazey

Meant to be an elite ball user isn't he? We could use some blokes that don't turn the ball over at NMFC!

Questions about house pace? Any Tigers fans out there think a player deal would be achievable, if so, what do you need? Lachie Hansen of interest?

John

Next year I'm thinking Bont and JPK alongside Danger and Pendles in the midfield?

wombatsfc

If the choice was Bont or The Extractor you'd have to go with the Extractor Bont isn't in the same league.
Cripps' first year was an absolute nightmare for a kid living 2 time zones away from his family
First Game rnd 4 Vs Melb 74SC
Second Game Round 5 Vs Bulldogs got injured early and was subbed off at start of third qrtr SC 21 – got dropped to VFL where he broke his leg
Third game rnd 23 Vs Essendon started as Sub came on halfway through final Qrtr SC23
Not what I consider to be an ideal start but a true test of his guts.
2015 was basically his first year and despite missing 2 games he finished 8th in the league for contested possessions and 11th for Clearances.

This year he didn't play every game but was #1 in both contested possessions and clearances -Bont played every game and was 30th in contested possessions and 56th in clearances. Cripps was 29th in the league for total disposals and Bont 55th.
Cripps was 32nd in the league for effective disposals better than Parker, GAJ, Priddis,Shaw, Dollhouse, RGray, Sloane and Bont who was 62nd

The only area's where Bont exceeds Cripps is in Kicks where Bont averages 2.6 p/game more, HitOuts 2.0 Vs 1.71 and goals 1.0 Vs 0.47

The Bont has peaked he might increase his season ave by 1 or 2% in 2017 but he wont go much better than 110, whereas cripps was being compared to GAJ/Selwood/Rocky last year and still has better stats than them. A safer lock than Pendle for 2017

John

Very interesting review Wombats. My only concern for Cripps is he get the clearance, but handballs backwards with it. If he could kick when he got some of those clearances his score would go through the roof.

SCaddict

Most of the best pill extractors are handball happy whether it be Cripps, Pridda or JPK given the split second you've got to work with. But I'd happily take an effective handball over a clanger kick any day.

On the truly best the game has ever seen like a Gaz, Pendles and now Danger can rack up those clearances and also get off an effective kick more often than not.

Boltons Blues

I get a little tighter in my pants when it comes to Cripps, tops boat clearances and contested possenions at 21!!! 21!!!! I'm 22 and still don't know what I wanna do with my life and this kid is running around out doing elite midfielders

Still didn't make AA team of 40 though… Goes to show its done on names not stats

Moustachio

How can you say the Bont has peaked, he is same age as Cripps!

Moustachio

Never mind just looked it up, Bont is a year younger!! (Well 8 months)

I N Pieman

Bont is a match winner & kicks clutch goals. Cripps isn't, "yet". Bont is more penetrating with his disposal. Bont every day of the week. I never agree with the furry marsupial anyway

SCaddict

Plus you have to factor in the fact that the Champion Data lads just adore the guy. Often seems like the Bont gets +30 SC for merely running through the banner. 🙂

It'll be a tough choice for many coaches as they'll be identically priced in 2017 with only 0.1 separating their season average. I probably won't be making up my mind until a few minutes before Rd1 lockout ha ha.

Boltons Blues

Carlton (should) play the Tigers R1, surely you'd have to consider based on the rabble that is punt road

SCaddict

I see Mr Bean has been shown the door at Tigerland. We also won't have that Markov Marcon confusion next year either with the latter delisted too.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-08-31/axe-falls-o

Just the beginning of what should be plenty of list changes at Punt Rd in the next couple of months. Prestia has also officially announced that Richmond is his destination of choice although only god knows why!

Kev

Harsh on Marcon. Accumulated plenty of the pill in the twos and did alright for himself in his two senior games

Hazey

What would Lennon be worth? Was he a bad first round pick or just needs a fresh start?

pod

What's going on with Judd in the TAB, is he on the punt?

SCaddict

I notice we can now finally view the Rd23 Supercoach teams. Giants Killers fielded the following impressive 22 for that monstrous 2683 finish that saw him snatch the $50K from Shemm at the last gasp:

DEF: Shaw, Doc, Simmo, Boyd, Laird, Rance
MID: Danger, Pendles, Neale, Hanners, Parker, Treloar, Rocky, Pridda
RUCK: Gawn, Goldy
FWD: Zerrett, Dusty, Zorko, Monty, NRoo, Buddy

He had the VC on Danger, looped Buddy and took full advantage of NRoo's 187. It's one tidy side without doubt and a fantastic effort to assemble it. Now that's what I call full premo!

John

What are people's thoughts on Bennel for next season?

John

Also Ryder?

SCaddict

If he plays Rd1 he'll be in my side as simple as that.

Not playing a game in 2016 he should get a 40% discount (like B.Crouch and Libba got this year) which would make him a steal at $296K given his 2015 form where he averaged over a ton and the previous 3 seasons before that scoring in the mid 90s.

Like Libba he may only end up being a stepping stone to an ultra premo (especially if that body can't hold up) but a bargain is a bargain.

John

Is that Bennel or Ryder you speak of?

SCaddict

Bennell. Very unlikely that any of the "bannees" like Ryder will get a discount from what I gather so his price should remain what it was for 2016 being $448K unless anyone knows differently.

Boltons Blues

I hope they don't get a discount, everyone will have the same 3 or 4 players like this year

Moustachio

IIRC Crowley got a 30% discount for his drug ban. They usually add 10% for crap players, so I am tipping the better banees will get a 20% discount.

Danners

If Bennell plays at least a game in the NAB Challenge, would be a lock for me. Ryder will be on my watchlist

Boltons Blues

I think you'll find the Gawn/Grundy or Gawn/Ryder popular selections next year, goldy has a "down" year by his standards and the rest don't look appealing

SCaddict

Goldy, Sauce and Stef all averaged about 20pts less than they did a season ago for various reasons. Given they were all fairly popular selections to start this year it will be interesting to see how folks feel about them now that they will be more than $100K cheaper each next season.

I'm pretty much done with Stef now that it looks like Archie Smith will become a fixture in future Lions sides. Starting with him over Gawn really killed me in the first 3rd of the season until I eventually caved in and sideways traded Stef to Gawn.

But I agree the Gawn/Grundy combo in particular will look good to a lot of coaches right now. Goldy will hopefully be over his knee worries by time the next season rolls around so he should still be a popular pick too.

Kev

Ryder possible dpp? If Lobbe leaves Port he's almost a lock

Hazey

Would you consider Archie as R3 cover? Estimated price?

Kev

Using the season average x 5,400 formula above has him priced at 428k. Definite no for me

Moustachio

Some F/R will definitely be in my team R1, depending on strength of pre-season. Likely Ryder due to value, maybe Tippett.

Shittruck Lycett, no ty sir.

Liam

Think I have pretty much got my starting mid for next year.
Pendles JPK Fyfe Beams Bont JOM rookie x2.
Bring on 2017!!!!

pod

Hey viewers, any thoughts on the AA team??

Rampe instead of Boyd!? what's Rampe even doing there? ZMerrett WAY ahead of Greene, how can they get that wrong? absolute disgrace!!

I thought L.Neale deserved to a bench spot. Would of been nice to see some recognition for a stellar year in a spud team.

And, no back up Ruck! (T.Lynch?).

Floy

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