Supercoach 2017 Bargain Bin v2
Today is a sad day. Round 22 means it’s almost the end of another Supercoach season.
Just another 2 weeks and we’re done for 2016, the time just flew right by didn’t it? But we can’t get too sentimental just yet, because I’m sure there are plenty of you out there who are fighting hard to achieve a great overall ranking or looking to take out your league for 2016. For those of us who aren’t in that position, we can look forward to trying again in Supercoach 2017, which is what we’re here to help with today!
Barron’s Bargain Bin
We’re back with the bargain bin again and we’re going to continue our look at some (hopefully) cheap players that may be coming our way in 2017. We spent last week in Sydney, looking at 3 youngsters from the GWS Giants who may be on our watch lists for 2017 if they find new clubs and this week.. we’re back in Sydney again!
This time we’re going to take a look at 3 players from the Sydney Swans, we’ve got a variety of guys this time around, one who is currently injured, one who can’t break back into the side and one who is still fighting for his AFL debut. These 3 aren’t locks by any stretch of the imagination at this stage, but they all have some very interesting Supercoach appeal for us to consider for 2017.
Nic Newman
Newman was a more mature recruit for the Swans originally, being picked up in the 2014 rookie draft as a 21 year old after spending a few years at the Frankston Dolphins in the VFL where he won the Fothergill-Round medal (named after Des Fothergill and Barry Round, the only two players who have won both the JJ Liston Trophy and a Brownlow Medal), which is the award for the most “promising young talent” in the VFL, an award which has been won in recent years by the likes of Michael Barlow, Michael Hibberd, Ahmed Saad, Dean Towers, Kane Lambert and Adam Marcon, all of whom have played AFL football in their careers.
Newman is now in his 2nd year at the Swans, he did miss a bit of time in 2015 with knee and elbow injuries, but hasn’t had any injury issues to worry about in 2016. At the time of drafting he was seen as a potential replacement for Nick Malceski and they do play similar styles with both using their good footskills to rebound the ball across half back. Looking at this NEAFL stats this year, we can see that on display.
That role across half back can be quite lucrative for Supercoach purposes, especially if they kick more than they handball, as we’ve seen with the likes of Heath Shaw and Jasper Pittard. He’s still on the rookie list and lost out to Tom Papley in Round 1 for a senior elevation, with the Swans also upgrading Jordan Foote for a game later in the year as well. So basically that’s what we’ll be looking for at the start of the year. If he is upgraded to the senior list during the Draft this year and firms for Round 1 then I think he could have quite a bit of potential as a bench player for the backline. Otherwise he might become a mid year downgrade option if he misses a senior spot, but continues his strong form in the NEAFL.
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Sam Reid
Now we come to the injured player in Sam Reid. Normally he’s spent his fantasy football career being stuck in that mid-priced range where he’ll cost you $350K to pick and won’t average more than 65-70, which would make us not want to go near him. He has however, missed all but 3 NEAFL games this year due to on-going calf/hamstring issues, which means that he could be a decent D6 selection if he receives a fair injury discount next year. At this stage I wouldn’t even say he’s a lock to stay at Sydney, but anything can happen between now and the start of next season.
He’s usually been a Supercoach disappointment though, between 2011 and 2014 he averaged just 60 SCPoints, which isn’t anything to get too excited about, but in 2015 he played 21 games (an equal career high) and average 72 SCPoints for the year. This isn’t massive “boy-oh-boy, wowee” stuff by any stretch of the imagination, but you’re not likely to be picking keepers at the D6 spot, so if he only costs you $220K, then he has the potential to score OK as well as generate some cash for you.
As we said earlier, he only played 3 NEAFL games this year, where he didn’t set the world on fire, but he was coming off of injuries, so you’d expect it would take a few weeks to get back into the groove of things.
On the downside, w will have to wonder if Reid has lost his spot in the 22 to Aliir “Aliir” Aliir, though Reid is a true swingman who is capable of playing either end of the ground. Risky pick, but one that could have some upside to it. I wouldn’t have him super high on my list at the moment, but there’s still a lot of time to go between now and next season and we still don’t know what next years rookie crop is going to offer us.
Brandon Jack
Now we’re onto the guy who can’t break into the side in Brandon Jack, brother of Sydney midfielder Kieran Jack, cousin of professional wrestler Cactus Jack, uncle of Atlanta Hawks point guard Jarrett Jack…I don’t think my information is correct there… Anyway, BJ played a double handful of games in each of the last 3 years, playing 9 games in 2013, 8 in 2014 and 10 games in 2015. 2015 in particular looked like he was headed in the right direction, coming into the side in Round 16 and playing all the way through until he was dropped for the Swans loss in the semi-final against North Melbourne. So it’s probably natural that we’d expect that course to continue and we’d see him in the 22 plenty the next year, but that failed to happen with Jack not being selected for a single AFL game this year and he’s spent the entire season playing in the NEAFL.
Still, we couldn’t call it a wasted year if he’s continued to develop in the lower leagues, which it appears he has, looking at his stats for the Swans reserves he’s continued to play at a high level.
The fact that he’s made senior emergency a few times during the year is a good sign also, it usually means he’s right on the cusp of getting selected for the main side. His NEAFL stats have improved from where they were in 2015, going from averaging 21 disposals, 4 marks and 5 tackles in 2015 to 26 disposals, 5 marks and 5 tackles, with his Dream Team average going from 93 in 2015 to 104 in 2015. He’ll still probably be 50/50 for making the best 22 in Round 1, but if he has a strong pre-season then he could easily find himself in the main side for the start of the year, then he just needs a decent string of games to gain some cash and we’ll be happy with that.
AROUND THE GROUNDS…
VFL
Matthew Goodyear – Goodyear had 29 disposals, 3 marks, 7 tackles and kicked 2 behinds in Collingwood’s 84-68 win over Port Melbourne.
Shaun Edwards – He had 17 disposals, 3 marks and kicked a goal as Essendon defeated Williamstown 119-101.
Will Hams – He kicked 2.1 along with 18 disposals, 5 marks and 6 tackles.
Jack Trengove – Trengove had 29 disposals, 3 marks, 4 tackles and kicked 1.1 as the Casey Scorpions smashed Werribee 151-46.
Ben Kennedy – Kennedy had 24 disposals, 5 marks, 3 tackles and kicked 1.1
Mitchell Hibberd – Hibberd had 18 disposals, 7 marks, 3 tackles and 7 rebound 50’s for Werribee.
Sam Durdin – Durdin kicked 2 goals, as well as having 12 disposals, 4 marks and 4 tackles.
Ben Mackay – He kicked 2 goals along with 7 disposals, 2 marks and 5 tackles.
Jack Sinclair – Led the way for the Zebras with 29 disposals, 4 marks and 5 tackles and Sandringham lost to the Box Hill Hawks 69-91.
Bailey Rice – Rice had 25 disposals, 4 marks and 1 tackle.
Brodie Murdoch – Murdoch had 23 disposals, 8 marks and 2 tackles.
Alex Woodward – Woodward had 29 disposals, 6 marks, 2 tackles and kicked a goal for Box Hill.
Kade Stewart – Stewart kicked 2.2, along with 15 disposals and 4 marks.
Adam Marcon – Big game for Marcon with 31 disposals, 4 marks, 8 tackles and 2 goals as Richmond’s VFL side did what the main side couldn’t, defeating Geelong 82-45.
Liam McBean – Couldn’t take advantage of his chances in front of goal, kicking 1.4, along with 16 disposals and 5 marks.
Wylie Buzza – Split ruck duties with Mitch Clark and had 11 disposals, 3 marks, 6 tackles and 13 hitouts.
BYES: Northern Blues (Carlton), Footscray (Western Bulldogs)
SANFL
Harrison Wigg – Led the way for the Crows with 27 disposals and 7 clearances in Adelaide’s 118-76 win over the Redlegs.
Johnathan Beech – Beech also had 27 disposals, as well as 6 marks and kicked 1.1
Tom Doedee – Doedee had 24 disposals and 7 marks against the Redlegs.
Wayne Milera – Milera had 17 disposals, 5 tackles, 4 clearances, 5 inside 50’s and kicked a goal for Adelaide.
Sam Colqhoun – Pretty good game for him with 30 disposals, 10 marks and 4 rebound 50’s in Port Adelaide’s 134-79 win over Glenelg.
Riley Bonner – Bonner had 21 disposals, 5 marks, 4 inside 50’s and 6 rebound 50’s against Glenelg. Is probably a good chance to play one or both of the remaining games for the Power this year.
Will Snelling – Had 17 disposals, though 14 were handballs, but also had 17 tackles and 6 clearances doing the dirty work in the middle for the Magpies.
WAFL
Corey Adamson – Adamson had 21 disposals, 2 marks and kicked a goal as East Perth lost to Subiaco 48-68.
Tom Lamb – Inaccurate in front of goal with 4 behinds, as well as 16 disposals and 5 marks.
Malcolm Karnapy – He had 15 disposals, 5 marks, 4 tackles and 4 inside 50’s for East Perth.
BYES: Peel Thunder (Fremantle)
NEAFL
Jack Steele – Steele had a huge game, finishing with 43 disposals, 7 marks, 7 tackles, 11 clearances, 9 inside 50’s and 2 goals as the UWS Giants defeated Redland 174-24.
Jacob Hopper – Big game for Hopper too, he had 37 disposals, 4 marks, 5 tackles, 12 clearances and 2 goals.
Jeremy Finlayson – Finlayson had 30 disposals, 15 marks, 5 inside 50’s and kicked 1.2
Jake Barrett – Barrett had 23 disposals, 8 marks, and kicked 3.3
James Stewart – Stewart kicked 3.3 as well as having 19 disposals and 7 marks.
Nic Newman – Newman had 28 disposals, 6 marks, 5 tackles, 7 rebound 50’s and kicked 1.1 as Sydney lost to the NT Thunder 92-54.
Harry Marsh – Marsh had 25 disposals, 9 marks, 2 clearances and 3 inside and rebound 50’s.
Sam Murray – Murray had 19 disposals, 9 marks, 5 inside 50’s and kicked 1.1
Braydon Fiorini – Big game for Fiorini who led the game with 40 disposals, as well as 14 marks, 7 tackles, 7 clearances, 4 inside 50’s, 6 rebound 50’s and also kicked 2.2 as the Suns defeated Southport 85-72.
Darcy MacPherson – He had 24 disposals, 6 marks, and also kicked 2.1 for the Suns.
David Swallow – Played his first game of the year after dealing with knee injuries and had 16 disposals, 8 marks, 3 tackles, 2 clearances and 3 inside 50’s.
BYES: Brisbane
And that’ll be all from us today. I hope you’re all kicking butt as this Supercoach season winds down and remember, if you have any questions or comments you can let us know in the comments below or hit us up on Twitter @BarronVonCrow
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Super interested in the bargains that could be on offer next year. But always wondered how injury affects player's prices next year. What will Fyfe start at? How about Beams? Or David Swallow, who was out all year?
If I remember correctly, players got a 30% discount if they missed the entire year, then 20% if they played 8 or less (I'm not 100% sure on this, though I imagine someone else will know for sure).
So based on that, Beams would potentially be $489K, Fyfe would be $499K and Swallow would be $291K.
I'm sure that'll change based on their averages too, I don't know if they work out next years price based on this years form and then deduct the injury discount from that, or do it from this years prices.
Either way, I think you'd be pretty happy with Beams and Fyfe for $500,000 each.
Yeah I'm not sure what the discount rules are exactly either in all situations. If you have multiple injury affected years in a row I think the discounts may be cumulative.
But I think it's a 40% discount for not playing at all in a given year. Anyway that's what it worked out for Libba, JOM and and your very own Brad Crouch this season. if you do the math.
I dunno if they take into account having played a few games in the lower levels either. If they do then that'll impact what discounts JOM and Swallow get next year.
It would be good to know the precise formula (if it exists). But given all the possible variables and potential scenarios a bit of good old fashioned judgement may be used at times.
From what I have figured out, it's a base of 10% if 5-7 games were played. If less than that, the previous years average is used and it moves to the big 40% discount.
Then if the player is not a big scorer (dunno what threshold is) they get another 10%. So a crap player playing 6 games would get 20% discount, the same player playing 4 games gets 50% discount.
I think the drug bans work differently judging from Crowley. He got 30%, and he is a low scorer so I assume that includes 10% bonus. So I expect the likes of Watson, Bennell, Ryder to get 20%.
Using Wells as an example from last year he averaged 56.5 from 2 matches. This would price him at around 305,000. Then the 20% discount is applied lowering his price to this years starting price of 243,900. Therefore Beams should be priced around 340,000 to 350,000 and Fyfe should be priced around 450,000 to 460,000.
No
Big stas Jack Steele & Jacob Hopper, they would make most afl teams best 22, 2017 guns! Are they trade bait or GWS keen to hold both?
I'm guessing they'll keep Hopper since they just picked him, but looks like Steele has a ton of interest from other teams, especially in Victoria. Will probably depend on the talent coming through the GWS Academy though and how many picks/points (and list spots) they need to draft the ones they want.
They prepared a fair bit last year picks wise, they've currently got 3 1st rounders (Collingwoods, Geelongs and their own), plus 2 2nd rounders (Adelaides and their own), so they could be in a situation where they don't need any points this year, but will need to trim some spots so they'll look to trade just for future draft picks again.
GWS will dominate, no doubt about it, and on the flip side, list managers from other clubs have an opportunity to 'pluck the golden goose'. GWS can't keep them all, Jack Steele must be on his way to a Vic based club, hopefully down to the cattery.
He'd be a great pickup for the cats.
I'm hearing whispers that Gary Rohan may land at kardinia park next year….
AFL app reported today that Rohan has re-signed with the Swans till 2020.
Doubt Hopper would go anywhere, was an academy pick. Steele a 50/50 chance of staying or going
Ah there he is.
Thanks for doing a piece on Nic Newman BVC.
be gold in defence next year if he gets a go.
Has good foot skills – tick
Kicks more than handballs – tick
Loves a cuddle – tick. Avg 4 with a 9, 8, 6 and a few fives.
If upgraded definitely high on the watch list.
Fiorini confirmed starter this week.
No real fantasy carnage this weekend with team selections that we didn't already know about… well so far. Suckling Pig out again with that achilles complaint.
Jacobs is back for the 10K coaches still holding.
Naismith kept his spot with Nankervis making way for Tippo as anticipated.
Pretty surprised tbh, usually a fair bit of the general soreness going around this time of year
Quite a contrast to last year when we were bombarded with popular outs late in the season. Think I had 3 or 4 donuts at the bitter end.
But in 2016 I've actually survived w/o trades for the past 3 weeks. In fact Addicts Anon is kind of thriving touch wood.
Although I have Suckling I'm actually more than fine with him missing as I can now loop Collins with Brown whose scoring has been going gangbusters lately. 🙂
I believe we are not getting the big outs like we did in the past for two reasons, firstly the top 8 sides are so close its unbelievable, To the point if the #1 ladders in Hawthorn at round 22 could literally drop outside top 4 if they lose this week and obviously all other teams fighting for percentage.
Secondly this season after the home and away series (Round 23) the AFL brought in a week off prior to finals starting because of the precedent Ross Lyons set last year after dropping half the team in the last round in 2015.
Meaning Round 23 ends next Sunday on the 28th of August, however the finals don't start until Saturday the 10th of September.
That being said if Hawthorn win this week they are then guaranteed to finish on top and it would be very interesting to see if Hawthorn continue to rest many of their elite players and if that's the case, I wonder if the AFL will then revoke the one week break after the home and away series next season. It will be interesting.
Sandi is out. Might bring Mummy in
Tell me with Jamar named Grimley will finally get dropped!! Very important for myself as Dons play in the last game I can loop either my fwd line or rucks also able to vc Gawn with Danger as capt.
You would think so, however it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't drop Grimley either.
Love to hear thought guys
Which combination is better:
Docherty & Wells or
Bont/Rocky & Rich?
Rocky & Rich.
Is it worth getting Gibson in, if not what are some other options around that price $410000 or lower that could be good.
Need to work out my loophole
Who do you think will score the least out of Gunston and JJK???
Or what about Gibson and Savage?
Awesome article as always Barron
Who to bring in for Wingard? I was looking at Gunston, Lynch & Franklin
Thoughts BVC & Community.
Geelong – all 3 ins named are backs with no outs – I smell a rat , I mean a cat !
I still expect Bartel to miss this week, particularly with Mackie back in.
Played more forward last couple weeks, Should be dropped on form not rested.
3 trades left and 26k. Currently have Wingard on the bench, is it worth trading him down to a non playing forward (so i can have a captains loophole) allowing me to upgrade Steven to someone. Other option would be to upgrade williams down back.
Yes for sure mate, you may as well make use of that extra trade while you can because you can only use 2 trades next week for the GRAND FINAL.
So use your 3rd trade otherwise you'll miss out on using it so it'll be wasted, so trade Wingard to either Long who is FWD/MID if you want a TON of cash, around $300,000 so you can then upgrade Steven to someone like a JPK or anyone you like and you can also upgrade one other player who is under preforming with the left over cash to any other player you desire as this will give you plenty of cash to upgrade fallen premiums who are not scoring well.
However if its just Steven who is your under preforming premo then trade Wingard to someone better if like the following players who are averaging around 80 over last 3 games:
Clay Smith MID/FWD
Jayden Short MID/FWD
Majak Daw RUCK/FWD
other option, wingard to Close and Mathieson to Martin.Gives me a mid swing.
Mate you didn't show your full team, so I'm presuming Wingard was your bench cover for a while and you had a good forward line, however if you dont have Dusty then im guessing your forward isn't full of elite premo's.
If you think you will win your preliminary final this weekend then DON'T make the 2 trades just make the one trade to generate the cash. If you think you can easily lose your prelim then get Dusty.
Full team is
Backs: Simpson, Shaw, Boyd,Rance Williams, Laird (Collins, Tucker)
Midfielders: Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Hannebery, Parker, Sloane, Ward, Steven, Rockliff (Hewett, Smith, Mathieson)
Rucks: Goldy, Gawn (Grimely)
Forwards: Zorko, Greene, Buddy, Montagna, Wells, Dahlhaus (Wingard, Silvagni)
Thinking it could be a close game this week
Dusty as VC against the Saints?
Thoughts?
I like it although the Saints will cream the Tigers this week.
Some great work BVC! Seems Newman is definitely overdue a game with Sydney and looks a nice selection next year. Another couple of Giants to look at are Ahern and Pickett should they play in the preseason.
semi finals & the feedback had really dropped off – teams need help from coaches that have the knowledge. Just saying……
Shine yer boots guvnor?
Menadue playing this week
Any advice… Can spend up to $515k on a defender to replace Brodie Smith. Thinking Burgoyne or Tuohy. Any thoughts?? (Playing big prelim against someone who has beaten me last 2 years. Need help!!
I assume u have Boyd & Laird if not get either one of them.
Think Burgoyne could go big tonight. When the Hawks are in tight (must win) matches Burgoyne often gets put in the middle. His a big game player.
Would probably go Tuohy. Reckon the Hawks might give Burgoyne a light workload heading for September.
Do you have to trade though ? Despite his season Smith is as likely to go go large as Tuohy.
Savage might be an option.
Thanks Juzzy. Don't have to trade. Just keen not to lose 3 prelims in a row to my nemesis!
Community need a hand here.. I have 3 trades and 71.5k
My fwd line is not happy (and the rest of my side..but that is a story for another year)
Back: Docherty, Simpson, Shaw, Boyd, Laird, McVeigh (Collins,Lee)
Mid: Dang, Zmerrett,Pridd,Smitch,Ziebell,Armitage, Gaff, Rocky (menadue, Phillips, Trengove)
Ruck: Gawn, Goldy (cox)
Fwd: Dusty, Zorko, Montagna, Wells, Lecca, Kerridge (ClaySmith, Grimley)
I think i need to move on lecca and Kerridge, however just don't know whether i can fill the boots of both..
I could move them both on move merrett fwd and bring in Dahl and Zaharakis/menegola/robinson…. options are thin!
or i could move on wells and kerridge and bring in dahl and buddy/crouch/neale/ward/steven I would have 517k?
any other thoughts or moves?
Providing Lecca means LeCras. Just go LeCras to Dahlhaus this week and that will leave you with $50k in the kitty with 2 trades for the GF if you make it.
There is no point getting Zaharakis, Menegola or Robinson now as they are average players, however Dahlhaus is a GUN and you MUST use one of your trades this week otherwise it'll be wasted so go Lecca to Dahlhaus.
Yes…Keeping it simple. I like it, trade done!
If you are still in your leagues stop trading.
If you have injuries or want a pod from your opponent then go nuts.
No more sideways trading .. Rich to Pittard etc,etc. Cross your fingers, back in your team, and if you are lucky enough to get to the GF with a trade or two you will be a step ahead when teams are announced next week.
Good luck all.
finally some common sense
Jock, Higgo and Crouching, Tuesday night was the funniest podcast I've heard for ages! Thanks for a great year boys.
Don't often ask for advice, but could really use some this week:
2 trades left, around 3k in the bank. Projected to win my cash league game by 20 odd. Do I use 2 trades to upgrade Andrew Gaff to The Bont/Cripps, or sideways trade Gaff to Dahlhouse, leaving me 1 trade and $47,400 for grand final week if there is an injury?
In other words, back my team in or just go balls out to make the granny!
Doc, simpson, Shaw, Bartel, Laird, McVeigh (Collins, B. Williams)
Danger, Pendles, Hannerbery, Parker, Neale, Ward, Priddis, Gaff (Simpkin, MacPherson, Marcon)
Gawn, Goldy (Grimley)
Dusty, Z Merrett, Zorko, Montagna, Nick Riewoldt, Wells, (Hipwood, Phillips)
Thanks community, any feedback much appreciated.
You have some coverage on the bench, get Bont in.
i was about to say the opposite, he doesn't have any coverage on the bench, so if there is an injury for next week there is no cover.
I think Dalhaus will score just as well as The Bont/Cripps. He is near 100% in the guts and the dogs have two very nice games to finish.
having said that, Gaff isn't a bad bloke to have either. I would hold and give Gaff another go, good POD.
I think Gaff will be left alone tonight, should score ok, he has been scoring a lot better when Jetta is in the side.. I expect him to hit the 100 tonight (I hope because he is in my side as well)
Averages
97.1 with Jetta in
74.2 with Jetta out
I'm thinking Aish at 379K, dpp mid/def. Last three rounds at 97 ave. Playing Suns this week and Hawks the following week. The reports I've heard from the media (tv) during the week are he's jumping out of his skin, in career best form!! He might just be the ideal POD loophole player in def.
Hi Jock and Supercoach Community
I have an issue with my ruck area as i have Goldy and Naismith and obviuosly need to trade Naismith out.
I can not afford Gawn but can get any other ruck and was needing some help on Mummy (now Sandi is not playing this week), Grundy or Nik Nat.
Any advice welcome.
Nic Nat is a bargain at $475K. Hawks and Crows last two, he should dominate ruck both games. An upset tonight is possible if Nic Nat gives quality first use to mids.
Does anyone think the Eagles can win tonight?
Don't feel confident carrying Bartel in my defence.
I can afford anyone. Currently have-
Shaw, Rance, Doc, Simpson, Laird, BARTEL
Who should I choose? I don't like Gibson in SC
Leaning towards Boyd
Why don't you like Gibson
Might be bc he's a shitspud
(source: proud Gibson owner all test :S)
Bear in mind Bartel loves playing vs BRL, his 2-3 best team on av.
Boyd is your man
Do you stil have a shot at overall moustachio?
Crashed and burned amigo :S
Nic Nat or Mumford (NO SANDI) in for Stef Martin??
Are some of our later rookies such as Phillips, Menegola etc going to be lesser in price next year than their average, based on having played less than 8 games?