Round 16 NRL – Buy/Hold/Sell
I couldn’t be happier that round 15 is behind us, especially when I racked up a lousy 600 points.
The second big bye round is behind us with just one more to go in three weeks’ time. The Panthers and Sharks have no more bye rounds to come and all of a sudden their players have become more attractive.
Two major stories came out of the week, with Cameron Munster getting ruled out through injury while many media sources had us believing that Semi Radradra hopped on a plane to ultimately play French Rugby. We’re fortunate enough to have two weeks before the Eels play again so it’s best to hold off before making any rash decisions about Semi. Let’s take a look at some Buy/Hold/Sell options.
Trent Merrin 2RF/FRF $397k BE 69: Next 5 SOU(H), WES(A), CRO(H), PAR(H), BRO(A)
Merrin is already owned by 24% of coaches and I’m expecting that figure to increase slightly this week. He has a season average of 69 PPG, costs a little under $400k and doesn’t have any bye rounds ahead of him. He’ll come in very handy with his DPP status and we shouldn’t have to worry about a surprise Origin selection for game three. Like Cartwright, his price shouldn’t change significantly over the coming although he’ll be a valuable addition to your side.
Bryce Cartwright 2RF/FE $407k BE 74: Next 5 SOU(H), WES(A), CRO(H), PAR(H), BRO(A)
Carty has once again been named in the halves although he usually scores well regardless of where he’s named. He’s a run home player with a very high ceiling and all his bye rounds are behind him. He has a break even of 74 so there’s no need to rush him into your side; his price isn’t expected to change much over the coming weeks. The Panthers are playing the first game of round 16 so you can hold off making a decision about Carty until the final team lists are named.
Nathan Cleary HB $114k BE -80: Next 5 SOU(H), WES(A), CRO(H), PAR(H), BRO(A)
Nathan Cleary will be the buy of the week now that the Panthers halfback is playing his third game this weekend. Many coaches traded him in last week to free up some cash to spend on performing bye friendly players, especially Munster (myself included). If all goes to plan, Cleary will play every game between now and the end of the bye period while making enough money to upgrade to a run home player.
Ben Barba FB/FE $404k BE 113: Next 5 NZ(H), PAR(H), PEN(A), SYD(A), NEW(H)
There’s no need to panic trade Barba out of your side although there may be a number of coaches needing the money for Tedesco this week. There’s no denying that trading out a player with a 113 BE for a player averaging 74 PPG with a BE of 49 looks like a good idea, although it could pay off to keep Barba in your team. The Sharks have just one game left against a current top four side while having two fixtures against the struggling Roosters and one against the wooden spoon favourites. Consider holding him for the run home which makes any price changes irrelevant.
Semi Radradra CTW $421k BE 75: Next 5 BYE, CRO(A), SYD(H), PEN(A), GCO(A)
Semi popped up in my “Top 5 Most Traded Out Players” list and I can only assume it’s due to the recent rumours he’s leaving the NRL. There’s no question he’s a run home CTW option and it’s not worth trading him out due to his bye round this week. Throw him on your NPR list this week and he should be available for every round from round 17 onwards. Don’t panic trade Semi if you firmly believe he isn’t coming back to the Eels, you have two weeks before the Eels play their next game.
Manu Ma’u 2RF $355k BE 88: Next 5 BYE, CRO(A), SYD(H), PEN(A), GCO(A)
Coaches are looking at trading out Ma’u due to being on a bye this week and having a break even of 88. The two reasons he should be held is his 65 PPG average over the last five rounds while also being available for both rounds 18 and 19. He may be averaging closer to 55 PPG over his last three rounds although he’s projected to drop around $20k between now and round 20; not a significant amount for someone who’ll provide much needed numbers for the final two bye rounds.
Latrell Mitchell FB/CTW $244k BE 92: Next 5 BYE, CBY(H), PAR(A), CRO(A), MEL(A)
It’s such a shame to trade someone out of your team when they’re playing both rounds 18 and 19, but Mitchell needs to be considered as a trade-out option this week. He has averaged just 35 PPG over the past five rounds (25 PPG over the last three) and has a break even of 92. It’s time to let him go before he leaks any more cash.
Tyson Frizell 2RF $380k BE 66: Next 5 NEW(A), MAN(A), BYE, GCO(H), WES(H)
If you’re looking for a forward to trade out for Merrin or Cartwright then give Tyson Frizell a thought. He isn’t a player that’s leaking cash or performing poorly but his money could be used towards a more bye friendly run home player. There’d be a few coaches out there that won’t mind being stuck with Frizell for the run home or at least until the end of the bye period, although it seems the Dragons’ forwards have served their purpose through the bye period.
Pauli Pauli FRF/2RF $294k BE 73: Next 5 STG(H), CAN(A), BYE, MEL(H), CRO(A)
Pauli Pauli is still owned by 13% of coaches but there’s no significant reason to hold on to him any longer. The Knights forward isn’t available for round 18, has a break even that he likely won’t achieve and has now found himself named on an extended bench. Give him the flick and spend the $300k elsewhere.
How is your team looking this week?
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