Round 14 NRL – Buy/Hold/Sell
It seems that a number of run home options have become available for an attractive price, but which ones do we get this week?
Your Round 14 trades should be focused around gun players that have already had one of their bye rounds and are looking to start increasing in value.
Those that made the decision last week to sell Milford and/or buy Johnson are cheering, and rightfully so. Johnson and the Warriors have started their bye period with a solid performance against the Broncos and will be looking to score plenty of points against the Knights and Roosters in the next two rounds. It’s fairly safe to assume that Johnson won’t be any cheaper in the coming weeks due to his 37 Break Even and considerably easy run, so this week should be the last chance to pick up the Warriors half back for a reasonable price.
Jesse Bromwich FRF $417k BE 69 Next 5: SYD(A), STG(A), WES(H), BRO(A), BYE
How much longer can a team survive without the powerhouse that is Jesse Bromwich? This bloke doesn’t know how to score below 50 points and has a season average of 73 PPG. His price won’t chance too much from this week to next so it’s not a bad option to hold off if you need to take advantage of the other juicy options available in Johnson and James. The Storm have already had one of their byes so he’ll miss just the one game between now and the end of the season.
Shaun Johnson HB $440k BE 37 Next 5: NEW(A), SYD(H), CRO(A), GCO(H), BYE
Those that decided to hold off on Johnson will be kicking themselves. He produced a monster score last week and is looking to do the same in the coming weeks against weak opponents. His low break even ensures that he won’t be any cheaper, although you’d want to get him in this week anyway with the Warriors facing the bottom of the table Knights. I’ll be giving a lot of thought to doing a Thurston > Johnson trade this week.
Ryan James FRF/2RF $411k BE -29 Next 5: PAR(A), MAN(H), CAN(H), NZ(A), BYE
Last week Ryan James produced a 156 point game against the Rabbitohs which has made his $411k price tag the cheapest we’ll see for some time. This isn’t your classic case of ‘chasing last week’s points’, James has to be considered a keeper with his 72 PPG average. The Titans have already had one of their bye rounds, so why not pick him up this week and lock in one of your run home players that’ll miss just one more round.
Anthony Milford FE $399k BE 125: Next 5 CAN(H), BYE, CBY(A), MEL(H), BYE
Those who traded out Milford for Johnson last week looks to have made a fairly good choice. He fell by an incredible $75k last week and may be looking at another decent price drop with his 125 Break Even. Yes, if he continues to produce a 32 PPG average he’ll be a massive disappointment throughout the bye period, especially being unavailable for rounds 15 and 18. I can’t see Milford producing such a bad run of scores which makes him a hold for me as he’ll likely make most of that lost value back eventually.
Latrell Mitchell FB/CTW $302k BE 51: Next 5 MEL(H), NZ(A), BYE, CBY(H), PAR(A)
Many coaches will be looking at trading in Tedesco and Munster this week. With the concern over Mitchell’s knee and the lack of upgrade options available in the CTW and FB positions, Mitchell could be the one on the chopping block. I’d suggest holding off, even if it means that you’ll have to wait one or two weeks to get one of the gun fullback options. Mitchell is available for rounds 15 and 18 and hasn’t exactly got a high break even or a run of bad form. Try to avoid trading him out this week.
Jarrod Croker CTW $398k BE 129 BE: Next 5 BRO(A), BYE, GCO(A), NEW(H), NTQ(H)
Here’s a classic example of coaches panicking when a debatable keeper reaches a high break even. I can understand the theory that the Raiders are playing away from home against the Broncos so he’s likely to produce a poor score. No arguments there. Croker could also be considered a sell if you’re not planning on trading him back in, he’s looking to lose quite a bit of cash with his last two scores of 37 and 38. Just remember that the Raiders are playing the Knights in two rounds time while also being available for round 18. He should produce some good scores and make back some of the money he’ll lose, which is irrelevant if you’re deciding to keep him for the run home.
Johnathan Thurston HB/FE $390k BE 96: Next 5 CRO(A), BYE, MAN(H), SOU(A), BYE
Once again, letting go of JT is a viable option this week. It’ll be much harder for coaches like me who have burned through their trades like a mad man. Those who have been more conservative with their trades can easily afford to get JT back into your side in round 20. This week the Cowboys will be playing the Sharks who have been excellent defensively. With such a difficult game away from home, JT could struggle to get those attacking stats needed to hit his BE which will save you a little cash if you decided to sell. More importantly though, you won’t have to worry about his poor availability and 49 point form average.
Daly Cherry-Evans HB $303k BE 57: Next 5 Out for 4 weeks. Round 18 BYE
Not only is Cherry-Evans facing a four week stint on the sidelines, he isn’t producing scores that would make him worth holding on to. If you’re a DCE owner then I’d be considering an upgrade to Shaun Johnson. It’ll cost you $140k although you’re bound to see some great scores while having an extra number for rounds 15 and 19.
What are your trade moves coming into round 14?
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