Round 13 NRL – Buy/Hold/Sell
What a relief it is looking at round 12 in the rear view mirror!
Half of the teams have had one of their bye rounds which means we can begin to look at a whole new range of players. The Roosters now join the Eels as the only teams available for the last two big bye rounds while the Broncos and Knights won’t play any. Keep in mind that we have eight trades available before round 15 so don’t be afraid to hold off trading in those gun performers with high break evens for a round or two. It can potentially save you thousands!
Ryan Matterson FE $180k BE -1 Next 5: WES(H), MEL(H), NZ(A), BYE, CBY(H)
Those of us that haven’t picked up Matterson yet have missed out on a $66k price rise although there should be plenty more to come. Matterson has taken over form Jackson Hastings in the halves and still has a negative break even. His major appeal is his availability for rounds 15 and 18 when Milford, Hunt, Thurston, Johnson and Mbye will miss either one or both of these big bye rounds.
Sio Siua Taukeiaho 2RF $310k BE 43 Next 5: WES(H), MEL(H), NZ(A), BYE, CBY(H)
Taukeiaho has picked up the kicking duties now that Hastings has been dropped from the team. He’s averaging 56 PPG and is available for a juicy $310k. He’ll soon be dropping 24 and 33 point games from his rolling average which should keep his break evens nice and low, while also being available for both of the crucial big bye rounds.
Shaun Johnson HB $415k BE 73 Next 5: BRO(H), NEW(A), SYD(H), CRO(A), GCO(H)
Johnson has averaged 74 PPG in his last three matches while also producing a season long average 69 PPG. The Warriors have just the one bye round to go which also adds to Johnson’s appeal. I can’t see Johnson dropping too much cash over the coming weeks despite having a break even of 73, so it could be a good move bringing him in either this week or next. He’s also worth risking as a run home player if you’re feeling ambitious.
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Kerrod Holland CTW $270k BE 50 Next 5: CRO(H), STG(A), BYE, BRO(H), SYD(A)
I’m expecting Holland to be a popular SELL this week although I can’t ignore a number of factors. His season average is 57 PPG so selling him for just $280k seems a bit of a waste. I think he’s going to be a better sell come round 19 when the Bulldogs have their second bye round. The Bulldogs will be playing the Dragons, Roosters and Tigers between now and then so his scoring potential is quite large.
Anthony Milford FE $473k BE 183 Next 5: NZ(A), CAN(H), BYE, CBY(A), MEL(H)
It wasn’t a complete shock to see Milford’s name in the “Most Traded Out In My Team” list. He has a huge break even of 183, so even if he scores 50 points on the weekend he’ll lose 60 to 70 thousand dollars. Additionally he isn’t available for the last two big bye rounds. Assuming Milford returns to form in the coming weeks you’ll eventually make back most of the money he’ll lose anyway, while also receiving his traditional high scores if you decide to hold him.
Latrell Mitchell CTW/FB $313k BE 60 Next 5: WES(H), MEL(H), NZ(A), BYE, CBY(H)
Like Milford, Mitchell has also shown up in my “Most Traded Out In My Team” list although I can’t see any reason to let him go. He has a break even of 60 which he’s well and truly capable of scoring, while also being available for the last two big bye rounds. Coaches could be a little nervous with news that Michael Gordon is making a midseason move to the Roosters which could compromise Mitchell’s security, although until he gets named in the Roosters’ team list there’s no point trading Mitchell out of your team.
Johnathan Thurston HB/FE $427k BE 114 Next 5: NEW(H), CRO(A), BYE, MAN(H), SOU(A)
The Community seems to be split down the middle when it comes to considering JT as a trade out option. I’ve put him as a sell target for a number of reasons. His high break even is a small concern and holding Thurston comes with too much uncertainty throughout the bye period. There’s the chance that he’ll get rested in between each Origin game and even play partial games when named. Reports were stating that JT didn’t do much contact training throughout the week so we’re assuming he hasn’t been 100% since the big hit McGuire put on him last week. At least we’re able to see how he pulls up after Origin before making our final decision.
Josh Dugan FB/CTW $314k BE 60 Next 5: Out for an expected four weeks. Will miss round 18.
It’s likely that Dugan will miss at least five of the next six weeks according to the latest injury reports. It could be argued that Dugan is a better hold option for overall players as he could prove useful using his DPP status with trading each week while not having to worry about trading him back in. I prefer to keep my salary cap productive so I’ll be using that $300k to take advantage of the attractive options this week.
Corey Oates CTW/2RF $306k BE 91 Next 5: NZ(A), CAN(H), BYE, CBY(A), MEL(H)
Oates wasn’t included in the Broncos line-up that is playing the Warriors this weekend. Most coaches who wanted to part with Oates traded him out last week, although 26% of coaches still own him. The obvious attraction with Oates is his high average and DPP status so it’s understandable if you’ve decided to keep him as a run home player. Make this week the final opportunity to reassess your decision. He’ll miss a minimum of three games between now and round 18 while not having back to back home games until rounds 23/24. Oates will play two strong teams in the Storm and Bulldogs in his next three games and he hasn’t been at 100% fitness for quite some time.
KEEP AN EYE ON…
Cameron Munster CTW $439k BE 111 Next 5: PEN(H), SYD(A), STG(A), WES(H), BRO(A)
Jesse Bromwich FRF $425k BE 102 Next 5: PEN(H), SYD(A), STG(A), WES(H), BRO(A)
Jake Friend HOK $420k BE 116 Next 5: WES(H), MEL(H), NZ(A), BYE, CBY(H)