ROUND 11 NRL – Buy, Hold, Sell?
Have you been feeling a little bit spoilt for choice over the past weeks?
It’s a nice feeling having that luxury of choosing from a number of players to start in your seventeen. Unfortunately you’ll be put out of your comfort zone when the bye period commences in two weeks, so get ready for the experience of having to scrape together a team for some of the approaching rounds.
I’ve based this week’s buy/hold/sell article off popular conversation topics among the community. It’s also important to remember that people’s opinions on certain players will vary due to some coaches being Overall players and others being head to head. It’s great to see so many varying opinions and ideas on offer and I hope you enjoy reading mine.
Euan Aitken CTW – $278k – Break Even: -3 Next 5: SOU(A), NTQ(H), BYE, CBY(H), MEL(H)
A number of coaches picked up Euan Aitken last week and it payed off quite nicely. Fortunately for those that didn’t trade Aitken in, he went up in price just $2k despite his score of 78 points. Make sure you give yourself every opportunity to trade him in this week as it’s a rare occurrence to pick up a CTW with Aitken’s base stats for under $300k. Let’s not forget his good bye coverage too!
Jarrod Croker CTW $390k – Break Even: -8 Next 5: NZ(A), CBY(H), MAN(H), BRO(A), BYE
I bet you’re all sick of hearing Jarrod Croker’s name being thrown around over the past few weeks. The Raider’s goal kicker now has a three round average of 90 PPG and is jumping up in price each week. If you haven’t got Croker in your team and you’ve been giving serious thought to trading him in, why not make this the week while his break even is an appealing -8! He’s definitely a run home option with his season average of 63 PPG so there won’t be an additional trade needed to get him out of your team after the bye period.
Anthony Milford FE $530k – Break Even: 82 Next 5: NTQ(A), WES(H), NZ(A), CAN(H), BYE
The idea of trading in a player that costs $530k can make you sick in the stomach! Those coaches who don’t own The Milf (like me) need to get him into your team this week or next. I’d imagine his price will be fairly similar after this weekend’s game against the Cowboys so my advice would be to base your decision off your team’s needs and the BE/performance of the player you’re getting Milford in for. Let’s face it, we’d all pay top dollar for someone who’s pumping out the monster scores that Milford does.
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Johnathon Thurston HB/FE – $443k – Break Even: 96 Next 5: BRO(H), STG(A), NEW(H), CRO(A)
OK so here we are at the controversial topic of whether to trade out Johnathan Thurston. There’s no doubting he’s a run home player, that’s obvious. You’ll be using another trade to get him back into your side if you decide to run without him through the bye period. There’s also the temptation of trading Thurston to Milford for those of you who don’t already own him. My recommendation is to use those bench halves you’ve be running with to upgrade to Milford and hold JT if you can. The only way I’d consider trading Thurston out of my team is if I had been very conservative with my trades throughout the season and have the luxury of having other gun halves in my team. Even then it may prove beneficial to work around JT when doing your trades each week.
Jackson Hastings HB/FE – $344k – Break Even: 20 Next 5: CBY(A), BYE, WES(H), MEL(H), NZ(A)
There are a number of reasons why I can’t see Hastings being a trade out option until after the bye period is over. He has a low break even of 20, dual position status which will come in handy throughout the bye period, a 57 PPG average and rounds 15 and 18 availability. That’s more than enough proof to convince me that he’s a hold until round 20.
Kerrod Holland CTW – $286k – Break Even: 65 Next 5: SYD(H), CAN(A), CRO(A), STG(A), BYE
It seems the sole reason why coaches are wanting to offload Holland is his concerning break even of 65. Let’s not forget that he has achieved that score on three of his six appearances (one being 63 points). He is also a round 12 player with the addition of having average defensive teams in the Roosters, Raiders and Dragons as opponents in the coming four weeks. It could pay off to reassess Holland as a trade out option when the Bulldogs have their second bye round in round 19.
Brenton Lawrence FRF – $261k – Break Even: 55 Next 5: CRO(A), BYE, CAN(A), PEN(H), GCO(A)
Brenton Lawrence has seemingly peaked in price and will be dropping his highest score of the season out of his three round average this week. He has made 94k since he starting gaining value in round 5 and isn’t available for two of the three big bye rounds. Unless he manages to score an attacking stat this weekend Lawrence is unlikely to reach his BE, although holding him for one more week would likely see him drop just a few thousand dollars in value. Take a look at the number of quality bye friendly players available on offer for a similar price.
Corey Parker 2RF/FRF – $451k – Break Even: 90 Next 5: NTQ(A), WES(H), NZ(A), CAN(H), BYE
I never thought I’d see Parker being a recommended sell, yet here I am advising people to do it. He’s guaranteed to miss three games through the bye period with the potential to miss a couple more due to being rested. It goes without saying that you’ll have to bring him back into your team once the bye period has finished, so selling Parker will be more suited to those who have been conservative with their trades. Another downside to holding Parker is the uncertainty of his minutes. Be wary that he could be rested for a longer period depending on how the Broncos are performing.
Nathan Peats HOK – $325k – Break Even: 62 Next 5: MEL(H), NEW(A), BYE, GCO(H), SOU(A)
A number of coaches have been let down by the news that Nathan Peats moved to the Titans to keep the Eels under the salary cap. He was the best hooker on offer when it comes to bye coverage and is now playing for a team that already has a solid hooker and plays just one of the three big bye rounds. The big disadvantage of trading Peats out is the lack of quality bye friendly hookers available. You’ll be looking at replacements such as Hodgson, Rein and Granville to ensure your numbers stay competitive. Your alternative is to see what minutes Peats produces for the Titans this weekend.
How are your round 12 numbers looking?