The Rookie Scout: Round 6
“Fyfe is injured, Suckling is down, Ablett looks beat up, dogs and cats are living together…mass hysteria!”
I think that’s how that Peter Venkman quote went, but even if it wasn’t it certainly seems to be one of the more prevailing cries out there this week in fantasy football.
We’ve had our own mass hysteria moments with our rookies too, thanks to the likes of Ben Kennedy and Connor Menadue, but we also have some good looking downgrade targets emerging too, which is going to be extra helpful as we get ready to cull some rookies and upgrade others. It might be a bit earlier than we’d like, but sometimes tough choices have to be made.
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Callum MillsSC Price: $305,100 | AF Price: $298,000 | CoachKings Price: $6,300 Round 5 Stats: 16 disposals, 4 marks, 7 tackles, 9 rebound 50’s, 94 SCPoints, 81 AFPoints, 112 CKPoints
Some great work by Mills against the Eagles, running at 87.5% disposal efficiency and doing some great work, both offensively and defensively across half back. He started a bit slowly, but has come into some really good form over the past fortnight and hopefully he can continue that this week against the Lions. His BE is sitting at 1 and it looks like he’ll have at least another 3 weeks before his BE starts hitting around his average.
Clayton OliverSC Price: $271,700 | AF Price: $291,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,400 Round 5 Stats: N/A
Oliver was rested last week against the Tigers, but I’d fully expect him to regain his spot for the Demons this week.
Darcy ParishSC Price: $326,500 | AF Price: $369,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,200 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Carlton VS Essendon Round 5 Stats: 20 disposals, 6 marks, 2 tackles, 4 clearances, 54 SCPoints, 73 AFPoints, 56 CKPoints
It was tough going for the Bombers on ANZAC Day and Parish had it no differently than the rest of his teammates. His Supercoach scores again suffered a bit from more handballs than kicks, while he also recorded a disposal efficiency of just 60%, as well as notching up 3 clangers. Still, for the most part he’s travelled fairly well this year and was averaging 87 over his prior 3 games before meeting the Pies, so keep hanging on to him and look for him to bounce back against the Blues this week. His BE is starting to get a bit higher, it’s at 54 this week, but his consistent scoring means he won’t face a massive BE over the next few weeks due to a dud score in his rolling average. As long as he continues to score consistently in the 80-90 range he can be started.
Connor MenadueSC Price: $209,300 | AF Price: $237,000 | CoachKings Price: $3,800 Featured CoachKings Contest: Saturday, Richmond VS Port Adelaide Round 5 Stats: 11 disposals, 2 tackles, 2 inside 50’s, 36 SCPoints, 35 AFPoints, 33 CKPoints
Just wasn’t much going on for Menadue last week, producing a crap score of just 36 SCPoints. After scoring 80 SCPoints in Round 1 he has had scores of 63, 31, 58 and 36, which is really not good enough for either starting on field or generating cash. His only saving grace is that his BE is just 29, which is entirely achievable, but his position in the side could be in question after a few bad performances. If you have the cash to upgrade him then go for it, but I wouldn’t be making it my #1 priority at the moment with such a low BE.
Sam KerridgeSC Price: $314,100 | AF Price: $398,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,900 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Carlton VS Essendon Round 5 Stats: 28 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 4 clearances, 115 SCPoints, 102 AFPoints, 104 CKPoints
It was back to his best for the Kedge, producing his 2nd Supercoach ton for the year. He had a Carlton high 509 metres gained, which was 2nd best on the day, behind Danyle Pearce’s 636 metres gained, as well as producing season highs in disposals and tackles. He’s still hitting the clangers pretty hard, notching up 13 over his last 3 games, but he’s still producing some decent scores. That big score has pushed his BE back into minus territory at -9, and it’s starting to look like Kerridge will be the last “rookie” we look to upgrade.
Ben KennedySC Price: $287,900 | AF Price: $316,000 | CoachKings Price: $6,100 Round 5 Stats: 13 disposals, 3 marks, 2 tackles, 3 inside 50’s, 54 SCPoints, 49 AFPoints, 54 CKPoints
He looked like a gun in the first fortnight with scores of 115 and 105, but BenKen has only averaged 56 points in his 3 games after that, and completely obliterated his once promising cash generation potential. At this point he’s looking like he’s neck and neck with Connor Menadue on the list of guys we’ll need to trade out in the next week or two. His BE is 51, which is just about what he’s been averaging his last 3 games, so if you have the cash to upgrade him this week, I’d look at doing so.
Tom PapleySC Price: $231,700 | AF Price: $260,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,300 Round 5 Stats: 20 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals, 6 inside 50’s, 4 tackles, 78 SCPoints, 107 AFPoints, 93 CKPoints
Tom removed the CRA from the start of Papley last week, with a very good wet weather performance that earned him the Round 5 Rising Star nomination. If you traded out Papley for DBJ, I wouldn’t be fretting too much as I think he still has better earning potential than the Papsmear overall, but his score of 78 gained Paps some more time to earn more money. His BE is 34, which *should* be achievable, and if he hits his projected score of 72 his BE will go down to -4 next week. If you’ve still got him then keep him, and I might even think about starting him against the Lions this week.
Mitch McGovernSC Price: $241,600 | AF Price: $249,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,800 Round 5 Stats: 12 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals, 3 tackles, 2 goal assists, 73 SCPoints, 62 AFPoints, 113 CKPoints
McGovern hasn’t blown us away with any one single score, but has probably been one of the more consistent fantasy footy forwards this year, with scores between 61 and 73 over the past month. As long as he doesn’t have an absolute stinker he’s still got another solid 3-4 weeks to make some cash, so you might be able to just hold him to the bye rounds if he has a big game in between now and then. Perhaps this week against an undermanned Fremantle side might be his opportunity?
Lincoln McCarthySC Price: $250,500 | AF Price: $235,000 | CoachKings Price: $6,100 Round 5 Stats: 14 disposals, 3 marks, 2 goals, 2 tackles, 6 inside 50’s, 79 SCPoints, 68 AFPoints, 95 CKPoints
Back into the side after taking a week off in Round 4, McCarthy produced another solid score and again made an impact on the score board for the Cats, kicking 2 goals (he’s kicked a goal in every game he’s played this year). His DE was a tad down at 64%, but still produced a score you wouldn’t be too upset with if you started him at F6. Because he missed a week his BE is slightly behind a few others at -28.
Jacob WeiteringSC Price: $363,400 | AF Price: $306,000 | CoachKings Price: $7,800 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Carlton VS Essendon Round 5 Stats: 11 disposals, 3 marks, 7 1%ers, 1 tackle, 61 SCPoints, 41 AFPoints, 74 CKPoints
With a BE of 79, we might need to think about calling time on Weitering very soon, probably earlier than most rookies, or ones who have scored as well as Weitering has, but two quiet games has pushed his BE up, and he was more expensive than most every other rookie, so he was a bit ahead of the game from the start. He could still buy himself some more time, if he scores at least 84 over his next two games it’ll push his Rd 8 BE down to 50, which is achievable for sure. Not an absolute that you need to trade him this week, but I’d start making some plans. It will only cost you $140K to upgrade him to a Carlton teammate like Kade Simpson or Sam Docherty this week.
Matthew DeaSC Price: $309,600 | AF Price: $303,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,800 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Carlton VS Essendon Round 5 Stats: 11 disposals, 5 marks, 41 SCPoints, 48 AFPoints, 49 CKPoints
None of the Bombers really stood out on ANZAC Day, Dea among them, with just the 11 disposals and 5 marks. You’re not going to produce a decent fantasy footy score with that few touches, no matter how well you use it. Dea has a BE of 67, which is high for a rookie pick, but achievable for him, but his days are looking numbered, whether you trade him out this week or not. A popular looking trade is Dea down to Tom Lee, which has currently been done by 31.4% of Matthew Dea owners.
Marcus AdamsSC Price: $333,900 | AF Price: $328,000 | CoachKings Price: $9,600 Featured CoachKings Contest: Friday, North Melbourne VS Western Bulldogs Round 5 Stats: 13 disposals, 3 marks, 4 tackles, 9 1%ers, 80 SCPoints, 57 AFPoints, 92 CKPoints
Adams is getting it done at a solid level in Supercoach and CoachKings, although his AFL Fantasy prospects look slightly grimmer, with scores in the 50’s the last fortnight. Obviously he’s not scoring as well as he did in Round 2 and 3, but for a rookie defender, he’s doing really well. I’d guess at this stage that unless he has a really bad game, he’ll still have another solid month of cash generation in him, and is also scoring well enough to keep starting.
Darcy Byrne-JonesSC Price: $207,600 | AF Price: $213,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,700 Featured CoachKings Contest: Saturday, Richmond VS Port Adelaide Round 5 Stats: 26 disposals, 2 marks, 3 tackles, 103 SCPoints, 83 AFPoints, 107 CKPoints
Probably one of the few Power players who can hold their heads high from their on-field performance, DBJ was 2nd for the Power in metres gained with 505, while also being equal 1st in possessions. He had a big $83K price rise in Supercoach and with a BE of -78, he is scheduled for approx. another $73K this week with another decent score. The Power have an easy-ish schedule coming up, with games against Richmond, Brisbane and Carlton, so I’d probably look to start him on my DEF line for at least the next 3 weeks.
Anthony McDonald-TipungwutiSC Price: $284,100 | AF Price: $283,000 | CoachKings Price: $6,000 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Carlton VS Essendon Round 5 Stats: 15 disposals, 2 marks, 5 tackles, 65 SCPoints, 66 AFPoints, 81 CKPoints,
He was probably started on-field more than usual after a solid 3 week average of 87 SCPoints, but with how the Bombers got dismantled in the first half, Walla probably did pretty well to score how he did. Not to worry though, the Bombers have Carlton this week, so that might be a bit more even affair, so I would still consider starting him if you have to. Big bonus is his BE is at -5, so there isn’t any need to worry about trading him out just yet.
Tom LeeSC Price: $123,900 | AF Price: $181,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,500 Round 5 Stats: 14 disposals, 4 marks, 3 rebound 50’s, 72 SCPoints, 51 AFPoints, 94 CKPoints,
He’s the 2nd most traded in player in Supercoach this week, with 6% of all teams bringing him in, which is understandable with a few defenders like Dea and Weitering right on their BE. He’s been a forward the majority of his career, but is playing as a defender now and does look to have a bit more ability back there, though there is that saying about how every key defender is just a failed key forward. Either way, he’s holding his own and his JS should be reasonable, so if you are making a downgrade this week, he’d be one to consider and is currently projected for a 50K price rise next week.
Sam GrimleySC Price: $123,900 | AF Price: $239,000 | CoachKings Price: $3,600 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Carlton VS Essendon Round 5 Stats: 12 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals, 3 tackles, 52 SCPoints, 76 AFPoints
Grimley has been around awhile now, he was originally drafted in the 2009 draft, but last week was just his 4th career game, after playing 3 games for Hawthorn in 2013. That was probably a decent return for him, he kicked a couple of goals and generally made use of the chances he had. He played in all 3 NAB Challenge games and had scores of 46, 30 and 31, so a score of 56 SCPoints might be a bit of a base case scenario for him if he’s not going to help out in the ruck. That score for a ruckman isn’t world ending though and if all you’re using him for is backup in case one of your main men goes down, then that’s OK. I wouldn’t say you need to go out and immediately trade him in, but I’m sure there are more than a few fantasy footballers who have him in already. Being a RUCK/FWD swing does give him some more appeal though.
Mason CoxSC Price: $117,300 | AF Price: $143,000 | CoachKings Price: $3,800 Round 5 Stats: 10 disposals, 3 marks, 1 goal, 3 tackles, 11 hitouts, 75 SCPoints, 66 AFPoints, 79 CKPoints
It was a great debut effort for the big US born Cox, who has made the AFL side after only playing 1 season in the VFL. Like Grimley, he has a RUC/FWD swing eligibility, which makes him an appealing option, and I do like the fact that he’s also helping out in the ruck, which will mean he won’t be goal dependent to put up a score like Grimley might be. The question will be how long does he retain his place in the side and if/when Travis Cloke comes back, will he be dropped? Cloke wasn’t too flash in the VFL, so I’d assume his place is safe for now, so give him another week to see how he goes before thinking about trading him in.
THE BEST OF THE REST…
Peter Wright – Huge game for Wright last week and many will definitely will have eyes on him this week. 3 goals and 8 marks, he’ll have an easier time than most young forwards since he has Tom Lynch taking the best defender every week.
George Hewett – Missed a week, but game back with a good effort against the Eagles for 70 SCPoints. If you still have him then I’d hold him again for now.
Liam Sumner – Only 37 SCPoints and 46 AFPoints for Sumner last week, he doesn’t look like he’s a great fantasy footy pick, only averaging 8.5 disposals a game.
Daniel Currie – Solid against Goldstein, but questions whether he’ll lose his spot again to Nicholls or not. Only his first game, so no need to act yet.
Josh Smith – A very nice debut game for the 22 year old for Collingwood, with 23 disposals and 4 tackles. Scored 72 in SC and 89 in AFL Fantasy, he should remain on your radars for now. Dirt cheap at 102K in SC.
Matthew Goodyear –Was a late inclusion, but didn’t set the fantasy football world alight, with just 25 SCPoints and 41 AFPoints.
Josh Wagner – Has played his 3 games, so he’s now 183K in Supercoach, but has looked really good, with 86 SCPoints and 83 AFPoints this week. I’d probably go for Tom Lee instead, but you still might be about to jump on him this week.
Nakia Cockatoo – Now $215K in SC, he did well last week to score 75 SCPoints off of only just 9 possessions.
Tim O’Brien – He scored just 50 SCPoints, but being at the Hawks would make you weary of his JS.
Darcy Tucker – A solid score of 67 SCPoints upon debut, with the Dockers finals chances looking to be down to 0% he should continue to get some games. One more week to evaluate.
Wayne Milera – Missed last week with a quad injury, he’ll be playing footy this week, it’s just a question of where. If you held on to him, just wait for team announcements first.
Mitch Brown – Isn’t gaining a ton of cash, but his BE is just 11, so he’ll hold for a little while yet.
Michael Hartley – A bit up and down, he scores 79 SCPoints last week after scores of just 53 SCPoints and 44 SCPoints the prior two weeks. If you have him, hold him.
Tom Ruggles – Just 55 SCPoints last week, but the Power were pretty bad, so it’s natural a defender might score a bit lower. -6 BE and a projected $28K price rise on the cards.
Ciaran Byrne – Continues to fly under the radar a bit, a really solid score of 76 last week and a BE of -35. Normally we’d be all over him, but he fell behind the other kid with Byrne in his name.
AROUND THE GROUNDS…
Jade Gresham – Most would have probably traded him out by now, but he had a good day in the VFL on Saturday, with 32 disposals, 8 tackles, 12 inside 50 entries and kicked 1.1. He could be back this week, though I probably wouldn’t go trading him straight back in if he was.
Ryan Davis – Was rested last week, but there’s a good chance he’s back in the AFL side this week.
Jason Castagna – A rebounding defender who was upgraded from Richmonds rookie list in March and has been ticking along in their VFL side decently. He had 23 disposals, 4 marks, 2 tackles and 4 inside 50’s last week. If Dimma wants to swing the axe then he could be brought in.
Tom Curren – Curren has a slightly elevated SC price at 192K, but did have a big day out for the Sandringham Zebra’s with 32 disposals, 7 inside 50 entries and kicked 3.1
Nathan Freeman – Played in a VFL development match a fortnight ago, but has suffered another hamstring injury at training and will miss one or two weeks.
Christian Petracca – Petracca continued to impress in the VFL as the Casey Scorpions suffered their first loss of 2016, going down by 44 points to Williamstown. Petracca had 26 disposals and was named as one of the best on ground by the Scorpions. Will be debuting this week for the Demons.
Mabor Chol – Chol impressed more than a few of us during the NAB Challenge, but had been fairly quiet so far in the VFL, but managed to have a big impact on the scoreboard last week, kicking 4.1, along with 13 disposals, 2 marks and 3 tackles in Richmond’s loss to the Frankston Dolphins.
Aliir Aliir – The Swans are obviously looking to bolster their key defensive stocks with the news that Aliir will be debuting this week. He didn’t get a ton if it in the NEAFL last week with 9 touches, 4 tackles and 4 frees against. Doesn’t look like one who’ll be a great SC player, but we’ll keep an eye out for him none the less.
Jack Trengove – Another fantastic game for Trengove as he continues to regain form after missing all of the 2015 season, Trengove had 30 touches and kicked a pair of goals while being named BoG for the Scorpions. It might be tough for them to bring up both Petracca and Trengove, so I can see them taking a long term approach to Trengove and playing AFL footy.
Jonathan Simpkin – Probably just squeezes into the rookie price range at 223K, but has MID/FWD eligibility, which might heighten his appeal a tad. He was very good in the VFL with 32 disosals, 10 marks and 2 goals and after the demolition job the Pies did against the Bombers on ANZAC Day, he could be in line to be recalled after scoring 72 SCPoints in Round 1.
Dean Gore – Gore probably had his best SANFL game on Sunday, racking up 27 disposals with 8 marks and 5 tackles in the Crows 30 point win over Glenelg, though it will take a few injuries for him to be looked at though.
Sam Collins – With Fremantle suffering a host of injuries and still winless, the chances for the kids to be brought up have probably increased. He had 13 disposals, 6 marks and 4 rebound 50’s in the Peel Thunder’s win against Claremont in the WAFL last week and Freo will be taking on a team with a very strong forward line in the Adelaide Crows this week.
Ben Keays – Not as much ball for Keays this week with only 19 touches (he had games of 29, 29 and 39 touches the previous 3 weeks), but made up for in on the scoreboard, leading the way for the Lions booting 3 majors in their narrow loss to Aspley in the NEAFL. Has been announced he will be debuting on Sunday, though it sounds like he may have a defensive forward role assigned to him, which could seriously cut into his fantasy football potential.
Rhys Mathieson – He was injured in the NAB Challenge after a high bump from Jeremy Cameron, but made his NEAFL debut this week and had a big day out, racking up 32 disposals and 6 tackles. He was rated pretty highly during the NAB Challenge, so keep an eye out on him making a return after a few weeks in the NEAFL.
Kieran Collins – With the Bullies taking on the Roos and their tall forward line next week, plus the injury to Matt Suckling, could we see Collins make his AFL debut this week? He had 14 disposals and 3 marks last week and 13 disposals, 4 marks and 6 tackles the week before. I’d probably hazard a guess and say if the Dogs do decide to bring in another tall that Joel Hamling might get the first look, but keep an eye out for him either way.
Darcy MacPherson – Was the leading disposal winner on the ground for the Gold Coast in their NEAFL match against the UWS Giants, with 33 disposals, 2 marks and 6 tackles.
Connor Blakely – Another young Freo player who could make his debut soon, he missed the last 3 WAFL games with an injured toe, but had 21 possessions and 7 marks in Round 1 and returned last week to have 32 disposals, 7 marks, 3 tackles, 6 inside 50 entries and kicked 1.1
Jacob Hopper – It’s certainly tough to break into the GWS side at the moment, but Hopper continues to push his case, leading the way for the UWS Giants again with 30 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 13 inside 50 entries and kicked 1.1.
Jake Barrett – Getting better for the Giants in the NEAFL, but like with Hopper, it’s a tough side to break into. He had 31 touches a 3 weeks ago, followed by 27 and a tagging job on Sam Martyn against Eastlake and then another 28 touches, 8 marks and 10 tackles last week against the Gold Coast.