The Rookie Scout: Round 3
“Just when you think you have all the answers, I change the questions!”Rowdy Roddy Piper
They were the immortal words spoken by Roddy Piper and never have they been truer than in Round 2 of Supercoach, a week which has left many of us with feelings of dismay, confusion and self-pity as we watched guys who blew the doors away in Round 1 score like rookies. Guys we’d written off jump back into our calculations. Injuries striking and all sorts of other types of fantasy football related mayhem.
But I’m telling you all right now to snap outta your funk, because as much trouble as your Michael Barlows, your Tom Rockliffs and your Daniel Richs (good lord, I just had a Gary Ayers press conference flashback) are causing you, there is one thing that cannot be denied which is we have got a pretty darn good crop of young rookies on our side this year who just may become the saving grace of our Supercoach teams.
Round 2 was another great week for a lot of our rookie picks, but now comes one of the most critical times of the year. Week 3 is when these rookies will start to fatten up, so we need to select the best blokes who are going to both score well and make us plenty of cash over the next 10 or so weeks. And that’s what I’m going to try and help you with here today.
Callum MillsSC Price: $211,800 | AF Price: $250,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,100 Round 2 Stats: 19 disposals, 5 marks, 1 tackle, 2 clearances, 4 intercept possessions, 68 SCPoints, 69 AFPoints, 70 CKPoints
Another week, another solid score for Mills with 68 SCPoints, but that’s a score that’s probably a good 10-15 points below what we’d really want from him. The number of uncontested ball likely remains his biggest obstacle to pushing up his points, but when you’re hanging around half back you probably aren’t as likely to be in the trenches where the hard ball is won. His Supercoach BE is still -15, so there’s plenty of cash left to be generated in him, and remember, because we paid slightly more for him to start his initial BE is likely to be a bit lower than those guys who cost us between $105-125K. Keep him in your team and keep plugging him in at M7-M8.
Clayton OliverSC Price: $207,300 | AF Price: $251,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,000 Round 2 Stats: 14 disposals, 2 marks, 2 tackles, 1 goal, 60 SCPoints, 49 AFPoints, 60 CKPoints
It was a bit of a disappointing return for Clayton, after a great Round 1 in which he received the Rising Star nomination and did some tremendous clearance work in the midfield. Oliver recorded 7 clearances in Round 1, but 0 in Round 2, as his work in the middle of the ground was changed up a bit last week, with Oliver spending more time on the wings. This could have been because Angus Brayshaw was recalled who spent a bit of time in the middle, or it could just be Paul Roos exposing Oliver to different parts of the ground. Either way, if you have him, you’ll have to keep him, like Mills his BE is still very reasonable at -14, which means there’s still plenty of use in him yet.
George HewettSC Price: $123,900 | AF Price: $198,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,400 Round 2 Stats: 15 disposals, 3 marks, 3 tackles, 1 goal, 5 clangers, 48 SCPoints, 68 AFPoints, 61 CKPoints
Ahh, the life of rookies in Supercoach, who one week score in the 90’s, then score almost half as many points with the same sort of stat line. But stats can sometimes be deceiving on the surface, while he had 15 disposals and a goal in each game, it was the around the ground stuff that dried up for Hewett in Round 2, with marks and tackles each down from 7 to 3 and a clanger count that rose from 1 to 5. His disposal efficiency being in the 60% range again would be a concern for me, but he has shown there’s still scope for improvement in his game and can score well if needed.
Ryan DavisSC Price: $102,400 | AF Price: $166,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,000 Round 2 Stats: 8 disposals, 3 marks, 2 tackles, 2 goals, 63 SCPoints, 48 AFPoints, 103 CK Points
A lower possession count for Davis for Round 2, but he made an impact in front of the big sticks, unlike in Round 1 where he missed his shots. I’d say at best most people aren’t starting Davis and at worse have him as their emergency, so with a BE sitting at -60 this week and a projected price rise of $53K on the cards, leaving him sitting on your bench just to raise some money seems like the best move and hopefully you don’t have to use him until it’s time to cull.
Darcy ParishSC Price: $202,800 | AF Price: $319,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,200 Featured CoachKings Contest: Friday, Essendon VS Port Adelaide Round 2 Stats: 21 disposals, 3 marks, 8 tackles, 5 inside 50’s, 1 goal, 97 SCPoints, 102 AFPoints, 98 CKPoints
Darcy Parish was the Round 2 Rising Star nominee and with good reason, producing an absolute ripper of a game in Essendons win against Melbourne. His around the ground work was fantastic with the 8 tackles and again ranked in the top 3 for pressure acts for the Bombers, while his ball use improved from 64% disposal efficiency in Round 1 to 88% in Round 2. His heat maps show he again got plenty of action in the middle and down across half back too. If you’re really set on trading Rockliff out and prefer a downgrade to a sideways trade, then Parish could be a very interesting pick. Make sure you pick him this Friday night for CoachKings too!
Jade GreshamSC Price: $144,300 | AF Price: $210,000 | CoachKings Price: $3,600 Round 2 Stats: 13 disposals, 3 marks, 4 tackles, 37 SCPoints, 50 AFPoints, 18 CKPoints
Gresham appears to be spending more time forward of the centre square, which hasn’t been the most profitable area of the ground for the Saints with only 33% of their possessions occurring in their forward half in Round 2, down from 37% in Round 1 (which isn’t that high either!). If I’m being blunt, Gresham has been a disappointment for us with two scores below 50 SCPoints. I think a lot of us picked him because he was cheaper than Parish/Oliver/Mills and had decent JS, but his scores just haven’t been there. At his current pace he’s only projected to reach around the $200-$210K range. That simply won’t cut it as a rookie cash cow option. So what do we do with him? There are a few options, if you can’t afford the straight upgrade to Parish/Kennedy/Oliver etc, then you could look at a cheaper option in George Hewett and bank the extra $20K. You could also swap a Menadue into your midfield and then bring in Tom Papley if you don’t have him, or if you’re downgrading an injured Rockliff/out of form Barlow then just use the money you gain from that to upgrade him. I have him and will be giving strong consideration to moving him on this week, though I think most will have bigger problems to deal with this week. Of course, you can always hold onto him and hope he turns it around, rookies can be unpredictable like that.
CoachKings action from Doyles Bridge Hotel in Mordialloc last weekend:
Connor MenadueSC Price: $155,400 | AF Price: $187,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,700 Round 2 Stats: 17 disposals, 4 marks, 3 tackles, 3 inside 50’s, 2 rebound 50’s, 17 pressure acts, 63 SCPoints, 67 AFPoints, 60 CKPoints
Menadue was 2nd for the Tigers for pressure acts applied against the Pies as he continued his high amount of work around the wing from the back to forward half of the ground and I reckon we can continue to pencil in scores between 60 and 80 SCPoints. On the whole the Tigers were a bit sloppy last Friday, so it’s probably a bit understandable his SC scores were down on Round 1. His BE is sitting at -52 and I reckon you can feel pretty confident about starting him if you have to.
Sam KerridgeSC Price: $137,600 | AF Price: $341,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,700 Round 2 Stats: 22 disposals, 4 marks, 2 clearances, 2 goals, 18 pressure acts, 106 SCPoints, 91 AFPoints, 111 CKPoints
There wasn’t really any time for Kerridge in the middle this week, with the Kedge gaining the majority of his possessions on the wing, but it didn’t really matter as he still racked up a good score in Supercoach. That’s a definite credit to Kerridge and his “jack of all trades” football ability and it also lends a sense of security to us in the fantasy football community because it likely means we don’t have to worry about him getting tons of time on ball to be useful. Keep starting him every week and at this rate he could perhaps even turn into a potential keeper in the forward line.
Ben KennedySC Price: $187,800 | AF Price: $269,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,800 Round 2 Stats: 21 disposals, 3 tackles, 3 clearances, 3 inside 50’s, 3 goals, 21 pressure acts, 105 SCPoints, 90 AFPoints, 140 CKPoints
Another one like Sam Kerridge who is perhaps looking like a season long keeper if he can continue his current scoring pace, Kennedy had another great game and like Kerridge he’s another one who seems to do a bit of everything out there. He’s looming as a big downgrade target for those who want to get rid of Michael Barlow or Tom Rockliff as he’s MID/FWD eligible, so he can run on either line. You may need to get on this week with a BE of -110 and a projected price rise of 80K on the cards next week.
Tom PapleySC Price: $109,900 | AF Price: $189,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,000 Round 2 Stats: 17 disposals, 3 marks, 3 tackles, 2 goals, 109 SCPoints, 74 AFPoints, 118 CKPoints
Lots of time forward for Papley, with 12 of his 17 possessions coming in Sydney’s forward 50 and that is where he is having a huge impact on the Swans forward line, as we can see in the tweet below
His BE is -149 and he is projected to jump up to $210K next week, so get on him now if you don’t have him. The concern from some which was highlighted here last week was he will lose his spot to Ben McGlynn when he returns from injury, which is valid, but you’d think the Swans would have to have a first class ticket on the crazy train to dump Papley when he’s playing so well and they’re winning games. Good chance he’s the most traded in player this week.
Wayne MileraSC Price: $175,800 | AF Price: $217,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,100 Round 2 Stats: 20 disposals, 9 marks, 4 inside 50’s, 1 goal, 7 score involvements, 83 SCPoints, 88 AFPoints, 96 CKPoints
Milera was used more across half back last week, likely filling in a bit with Nathan Van Berlo out, with 10 of his 20 possessions coming across half back. He again showed dash, flair and a willingness to take the game on, which is encouraging to see. I wouldn’t expect any changes to the Crows squad, so if Milera can continue to spend some minutes in that lucrative half back role then I’d continue to persist with him as a starting option.
Mitch McGovernSC Price: $123,900 | AF Price: $164,000 | CoachKings Price: $3,700 Round 2 Stats: 12 disposals, 5 marks, 2 inside 50’s, 2 goals, 8 score involvements, 61 SCPoints, 63 AFPoints, 78 CKPoints
A nice game from McGovern in the Showdown and he has started to show he can become a nice complimentary piece to the Crows Walker/Jenkins/Betts/Lynch forward line. His goal kicking is still a bit wonky (2.5 for the season), but he at least nailed the goals he should have in Round 2. He’s an OK piece to keep on your bench as long as he keeps playing; he is a more mature 2nd year player at 21 years of age, so it likely won’t be he’s dropped to give his body a rest like what can happen with 1st year players. With a BE of -30 he’s still got plenty of time left in him.
Lincoln McCarthySC Price: $139,400 | AF Price: $172,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,400 Round 2 Stats: 13 disposals, 3 marks, 2 clearances, 2 tackles, 1 goal, 18 pressure acts, 66 SCPoints, 60 AFPoints, 83 CKPoints
That sort of score may be the peak of what we can expect from McCarthy in Supercoach, which isn’t great, but not completely awful either, at least not awful enough that I’d consider using a trade to get rid of him. The 18 pressure acts he applied in Round 2 was equal 4th at the Cats, things like that will ensure that he continues to keep his place in the side. I’m keeping him on my bench.
Jacob WeiteringSC Price: $220,800 | AF Price: $256,000 | CoachKings Price: $5,200 Round 2 Stats: 15 disposals, 6 marks, 5 rebound 50’s, 4 intercept possessions, 68 SCPoints, 53 AFPoints, 96 CKPoints
There might be a few disappointed Weitering owners after he scored only 68 SCPoints last week, but it was still a very solid game from the young man. I think the two most important things to consider is that he doesn’t look at of his depth at all and he is using the ball extremely well for a first year player.
That may be the most important thing; he’s hitting his targets and not having unforced errors. Just persist with him and he’s likely to jump back to a solid score this week. Some may be tempted to downgrade to a Tippa or Hartley from the Bombers and pocketing the spare cash, I can see the bonus of gaining $100K, but I’d rank a spare trade above that, especially when they probably have similar scoring potential at the end of the day and neither are likely season long keepers.
Caleb MarchbankSC Price: $215,800 | AF Price: $194,000 | CoachKings Price: $4,700 Round 2 Stats: 6 possessions, 1 mark, 1 tackle, 31 SCPoints, 23 AFPoints, 47 CKPoints
I know there were a few Supercoachers out there eager to see if Marchbank could match the 93 SCPoints he scored in Round 1, but unfortunately he didn’t get the chance, suffering an ankle injury in the 2nd quarter. He’s likely to miss this week, but should be back for Round 4. He’s probably missed his window now though.
Matthew DeaSC Price: $183,600 | AF Price: $216,000 Featured CoachKings Contest: Friday, Essendon VS Port Adelaide
Round 2 Stats: 18 disposals, 4 marks, 2 tackles, 3 rebound 50’s, 6 intercept possessions, 87 SCPoints, 69 AFPoints
Another game where Dea was flawless with his ball use, he’s currently averaging 16.5 possessions a game, with an average of 15 of them being recorded as effective possessions. He did finally recorded a clanger, his first of 2016 (including all of pre-season), which was a free paid against him, but he is looking like a terrific value pick for us this season.
Marcus AdamsSC Price: $117,300 | AF Price: $216,000 | CoachKings Price: $6,000 Featured CoachKings Contest: Sunday, Western Bulldogs VS Hawthorn Round 2 Stats: 24 disposals, 5 marks, 5 tackles, 7 1%ers, 6 intercept possessions, 135 SCPoints, 101 AFPoints, 182 CKPoints
Just when you though Adams was impressive in his debut game, he goes and sets the bar even higher in Round 2! Not only is he setting the pace for rookies, but also for the entire AFL.
He’ll have a tougher match up this week against the Hawks, but he has been finding plenty of the ball for the Doggies and I would still be considering him a starting option this week. And much like Papley, if you don’t have him, you’ll need to give some serious consideration to trading him in. Bonus swingman option for your Barlow trade too. And if you’re headed down to your local for some CoachKings on Sunday then give some serious consideration to picking him after he scored an impressive 182 CKPoints last week.
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR…
Ben Keays – Keays had 39 disposals, 149 SCPoints and 146 AFPoints last week in the NEAFL. With Rockliff, Beams, Robinson and Rich all hurting he could be brought in as soon as this week
Michael Hartley – Debuted last week and was solid. Scored 144 CKPoints and only costs $4,400 in CoachKings this week, so make sure you all pick him up on Friday night. Give him another week in SC/AF and see how he looks before considering bringing him in in those formats though.
Tom Ruggles – Upgraded from the rookie list by Geelong. Could be debuting this week.
Ciaran Byrne – Good early form in the VFL praccy matches and named as an Emergency for the Blues in Round 2.
Ed Langdon – Played his 3rd career game last week. In a Saturday night Freo VS West Coast game that doesn’t have a lot of cheap CoachKings players on offer picking up Langdon at $3,600 could be a shrewd move if he is named.
Dougal Howard – Just the 60 CKPoints in Round 2 for Dougal, but with Schulz sidelined again there’s value in picking him for $3,600 on Friday night
Karl Amon – $4,000 in CoachKings and a potential replacement for the injured Chad Wingard this week. Another cheap forward line option to consider for Friday night in CoachKings in the Port Adelaide VS Essendon match.
And that’ll be it for me this week. Any rookies you’re considering swapping too? Or are you looking to lock in a particular guy in your CoachKings side? Let us know in the comments below, or hit us up on Twitter @BarronVonCrow
Round 3 CoachKings Fixture: (click link above for your nearest venues)