The PANIC Room: Round 1
You can hear it, throbbing, in the streets of Melbourne. The place is abuzz. From Geelong to Upwey, from the crashing waves of Bonbeach to the plains of Werribee, football. is. back!
And with it, Supercoach.
And with Supercoach; absolute bloody panic.
*switches Ablett and Pendlebury for the 943rd time tonight* pic.twitter.com/MAAuKcNZKB
— Patch (@PatchToTheMax) March 22, 2016
It’s bloody pandemonium, but that’s why we’re here. That’s why we’re in the Panic Room. Let’s dive right on in and be panicked together.
We’re got a special Thursday edition of the Panic Room because the AFL still haven’t sorted this bloody Easter thing out and are persisting with the incredibly inconvenient Thursday Night Football.
So, because of that, we’ve got a 40-minute window between teams being named and lockout commencing. These 40 minutes will be mildly stressful*
*artist’s depiction of mildly stressful
But enough of these screenshots and memes and pictures and rubbish. If Crouching sees this he’ll fly kick me right in the face hole. The time for humour is over. The time for analysis is now.
I’m going to jump into tonight’s teams and the news from that; then we’re going to look at what we do know about upcoming team selections tonight and plan ahead. Then I’m going to chuck a guide of “How To Not Freak About About Your Player Not Being Selected 30 Minutes Before Lockout”.
I’ll do my best to update this tonight when the teams do come out.
RICHMOND VS CARLTON
Before I get too into this, Lekdog tried his hand at his own podcast last night covering team releases. It’s more in depth than I can go into here – if you’re on lunch break and have a spare 10 minutes this is essential to tonight’s game. https://soundcloud.com/alexie-lekdog-beovich/pod-cast-richmond-v-carlton-teams
In the abridged Panic Room version, the big news here is Brett Deledio is OUT for the tigers. I know some people were thinking of starting him as a sneaky forward premium, but for the love of god don’t do that.
Deledio is out this week, in doubt for next week and absolutely reclaiming the various monikers I threw at him last year. Don’t select this bastard until we see him playing a full game of football.
On top of that, Richmond big man Ivan Maric is out with back soreness. Shaun Grigg will also miss. These two aren’t overly fantasy relevant. Neither is rookie Daniel Rioli, who despite being named for round 1 at 157k in the forward line is “likely to be used in a similar role to the sub” according to Lekdog. I’ve been wrong before about round 1 rookies but I’m avoiding him after his 3 NAB games netted him an average of 43 from 80% game time.
Speaking of rookies, Connor Menadue, Corey Ellis, Jacob Weitering and Sam Kerrdige have been named. I have all of them except Ellis, who is just a bit too pricey, and would expect them to slot into most sides as well. All solid, all capable. Charlie Curnow was named emergency, but we’ll get a look at him later in the year.
Beyond that, there’s not a massive amount of fantasy relevant news in this game. Kade Simpson and Sam Docherty have been named on each wing, which is promising for those looking at them but we’re pretty much done from tonight.
This is where the uncertainty kicks in. Back your premos and keep a cool head. We’ve been planning this for weeks, many of us for months. Don’t undo all this research on the back of a whisper some players might miss, or restructure your side to fit a left field pick who you hadn’t looked at who apparently averaged 346 in the NAB according to some bloke on Twitter.
You back your premos, you back yourself. If a premium is not named, stay calm. Look for someone of a similar price and pop them in. Fall back on solid picks. For example, if (god forbid) Ablett isn’t named, look at Pendlebury, look at Priddis, at Mundy. Don’t suddenly think Adam Treloar is a good pick because he’s a point of difference it lets you upgrade Matty Dea to Zac Bloody Dawson and gives you enough cash to swing someone forward and do fandangled magic. No. Like for like. Keep it simple.
Mid pricers present more of a difficulty, but I’ll put some clusters of reasonably safe picks you can swap between. I’m not saying I would select these each of these blokes, but they are options.
|Matt Suckling||Tom Liberatore||Just don’t… Please.||Jordan De Goey|
|Tom Sherdian||Matt Crouch||Nope, not listening.||Jack Steele|
|Jesse Lonergan||Brad Crouch||Ugh.||Daniel Wells|
|Trent McKenzie||Zac Smith if you insist.|
Rookies are the terrifying prospect. They are where things go wrong. We know Callum Mills and Ryan Davis are confirmed starters on top of those named for Carlton and Richmond.
— AlexieLekdogBeovich (@LekBlog) March 24, 2016
Jock HQ has been all over getting Coachkings ready to play tonight, and this weekend, and haven’t had the chance to put out an exclusive rookie cheat sheet (Jock has an overall cheat sheet here). So, I’ve chucked one together. It’s not a brilliantly crafted cheat sheet but it’ll be out of date in a few hours so I suppose it doesn’t really matter.
Yes, I’m awful at photoshop. Yes, the guy with the teacup is meant to be there. It shouldn’t be needed, because you should all have your lives in order and have sorted that 40 minutes tonight to sort out your bloody team. However, hopefully that sheet should provide security to those of you who haven’t been able to organise your time properly to take care of the important things.
Righteo community, I’ll be back when the teams are announced, but until then, flood the comments. Check out absolutely everything we’ve been up to over the pre-season which Jock has thrown together here.
Take these last few hours to say goodbye to your loved ones. Supercoach starts tonight. You keep your eyes on that. Not the dog needing a walk, none of this ‘going away’ rubbish, and forget that Jesus rising from the dead business. Supercoach. See you
soon, in the comments and updates, community.
4.00 Update: The panic is setting in. I’m once again torn between my loyalty to Gaz and security and sensibility of Pendlebury. In less self-indulgent news, we have rookie list upgrades!
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti from Essendon, Ryan Davis from GC, the Swans’ Tom Papley, American Jason Holmes (StK) Brant Colledge from the Eagles are now on senior lists and can be selected. We know Davis is playing, and I’ll eat my own shoe if ‘Tippa” isn’t named, but the rest are uncertain.
Papley played NAB 2 and 3 for an average of 54, and is a 109k forward. Colledge scored 7 in his one and only NAB cup game (from 65% game time) and Holmes is 284k in the ruck. Pass on those last two – probably pass on Papley considering the quality of forward rooks this year.
5.00 Update: Dion Prestia has been confirmed by the Gold Coast Suns as a starter in round 1. Coach Rodney Eade said Prestia had passed every test, and added “he’ll certainly give our midfield a great injection” implying he will play midfield. I feel dropping Lonergan or Hall on the back of this news would be premature.
5:50 Update: I just put Scott Pendlebury in my side after Gary Ablett lasted a whole 23 minutes without me changing him once. Record for today.
St Kilda’s twitter has announced Jade Gresham will debut this weekend against Port Adelaide. He’s a 144k midfielder who averaged 60 in the NAB, but had only 50% game time over the course of the pre-season matches.
6:00 Update: No late changes to either side tonight. And I don’t have to announce the subs which makes me so unbelievably happy.
6:18 Update: The panic is real. The Phantom has tweeted saying Brad Crouch has been named. Teams due at 6.25.
6:25 Update: TEEEEAAAAAMMMS
Ben Kennedy and Clayton Oliver have been named for Melbourne, as has Stevie J for the Giants. Oscar McDonald – brother of Tom – has edged Lynden Dunn out of the side. He’s a 155k key defender.
Righteo, Gary Ablett has been named on the ball alongside Dion Prestia. Livewire Aaron Hall has been named on a half forward flank. Essendon have been devious and NOT named Sam Grimely, Michael Hartley and Nick Kommer. I’m surprised by that. A lot. Matt Dea is in the backline and Andrew McDonald-Tipungwuti is on the bench.
Paul Seedsman, Wayne Milera (170-oddk FWD) and Mitch McGovern (123k FWD) have been named for Adelaide, while Dean Gore has not. Jed Anderson is in for the Roos, and Daniel Wells will play. Both Matt Crouch and Brad Crouch have been named; Matt in the middle and Brad on the bench. Ben Jacobs – North’s tagger – will not play.
Sydney have named Callum Mills, George Hewett and elevated rookie Tom Papley to play Collingwood, who will bring Adam Treloar out in white and black stripes for his first H&A game. No nasty surprises in that game.
Marcus Adams has beaten out Kieran Collins for a spot in the Dogs’ round 1 side. Matthew Suckling will start on a half back flank and a sneaky inclusion has appeared, with Josh Dunkley named. He’s a 117k midfielder who
didn’t play in the NAB cup played NAB 2 in which he scored 94 from 82% TOG at 68% DE (cheers to Connor for picking that up!)
Charlie Dixon has continued to defy God’s Will and – aptly on this weekend – returns from the dead to take on St Kilda. Jimmpy Toumpas makes his debut for Port as well after crossing from Melbourne (no in SC), and as I said earlier, Jade Gresham will debut. Jasper Pittard has been named on an extended bench, but I can’t imagine them dropping him.
The extended bench carnage continues, with popular mid-priced back Ryan Harwood sitting on the Lions’, alongside a smokie in Tom Cutler, who Lek is keen on. Brant Colledge has been named after coming off the rookie list an hour ago, but is still in danger of being culled. Also on that bench for the Weagles are Liam Duggan and Kane Lucas.
Rookie Cats defender Tom Ruggles has not been named, and anyone looking at Jake Kolodjashnij should expect him to be culled from the Cats’ extended bench. Zac Smith has been named in the ruck, Rhys Stanley at CHF with goalsneak Lincoln McCarthy next to him on a flank. No word on Sam Mengola, who hasn’t been named, and Daniel Menzel is also on that extended bench.
Hawthorn has named two kids called Blake Hardwick and Kaiden Brand (123k forward and defensive rookies) out of absolutely nowhere on an extended bench. Daniel Howe is also on that bench.
Sort of. Only Richmond and Carlton players are locked out after 7.10 tonight – we still have unlimited trades until final lockout on Monday. However, we can’t trade players who have already played.
We do need to move on some rookies – namely the backline ones who have turned out to be mirages in the most barren of deserts. Here I was hoping for a dessert smorgasboard of them. Right – Hartley might be back against bigger sides, but with Melbourne next week and Port the week after he’s now a downgrade option. I’m keeping Grimely as a loophole. Mills and Hewett should have reasonable JS, Papley less so.
Brant Colledge is an enigma, so I’m steering clear, especially with a few to come back into the West Coast side. I avoid Hawthorn rookies like the plague. I’m just sliding Josh Dunkley into my side between sentences – although he’s on an extended bench, too. Oh god I hate Thursday night football. I liked what I saw from McGovern, but don’t think his job security is all that great. Milera should be good to go if you want to pay the price – but I don’t. Marcus Adams is in my side and should be safe for enough rounds to increase in price.