SuperCoach Psychology 101 – Emotional v Logical Reasoning
During this desperately joyous week of our fantasy football lives, I felt it timely to offer you a potential fantasy mind cleansing – Some game thinking that takes a step back and looks at the key factors weighing into our collective decision making processes.
Excepts from Rudyard Kipling’s “If”;
……
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
…..
If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
…..
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
……
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!
Magnificence penned in 1895 with the final line seemingly delivered from Jock himself!
Doubts, blame, dreams, risks …. “if you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two imposters just the same.” Powerful. Strength in our convictions, to remain stoic and unaffected.
Unfortunately, we are not unaffected. When it comes to the decision making processes around selecting our starting squads, our brains are hard-wired to work against us. How can we remain stoic and unaffected when we evolved to be driven by emotion, to follow the herd – to survive.
Our emotional reasoning is eager, noisier and holds sway over our logic. Our brains are still working as they evolved – to be dealing with the issues as they would arise on the African plains – survival means quick response times and conforming to the group. Decisions that pay off are well regarded. Social acceptance will result in increased connectivity and as a consequence, an increased survival probability.
In the 2015 preseason I wrote an article on Shoal verses Shark game play. The underlying concept within was that while there was much safety and comfort to be drawn from starting with the common consensus in your selection strategy, doing so would mean that you simply could not rank highly enough to win.
Refusing to follow the crowd goes against every instinct – it is why there is a crowd to follow in the first place! Consider a scenario where a coach makes a comment on a player who he advises may spend more game time in a potentially higher point scoring role. This throw-away line, a line that the media might well have provoked and cut, feeds online chatter and the selection now becomes high on people’s selection radar. This player plays well during a NAB game in undermanned squads and performs better than previous statistics would dictate. Highly connected online fantasy communities begin to find reasons as to why this player becomes strategic while finding reasons to ignore potential associated risks. That small seed of possibility initially thrown out by the coach and replicated in an unrealistic game, now has been nurtured by the media, fertilised online and begins to spread its roots. Suddenly, this selection is being locked into starting fantasy lineups across the country.
The proliferation of fantasy football information available online is both the best and worst thing to happen to fantasy football. In many instances, it is quite probable that your decisions can actually become worse with the more information you receive. Rising confidence generated via a saturation of knowledge – statistics, coaches or player comments, expert analysis, new articles, multiple appearances in ‘Rate My Teams”. This socially acceptable pick now results in a fixed and rigid mindset.
We must value objectivity over both optimism and pessimism when making decisions and guard ourselves against any of the herd’s speculative euphoria. Be aware and acknowledge that a strong emotional cognitive bias is at play in each and every preseason.
While I did not want to mention any actual player names as it would in many ways contradict my key message, I would like to offer up one example purely to consider in the context of this opinion piece. I am in no way endorsing or condemning these selections, merely using them as a discussion piece.
| Player | Position | Price | Projected Rd.1 Score | Break-Even | % Ownership |
| Daniel Hannebery | MID | $617,900 | 101 | 115 | 10.2 |
| Travis Boak | MID | $535,200 | 102 | 99 | 1.3 |
Without going into the fantasy relevant pros and cons of the selections, is Hannebery an example of a preseason hype pick? Is the elevated spend of $82,800 on Hannebury justified when comparing him to Boak? Did Hannebury’s NAB Challenge hit-out against Carlton where he scored 139 result in an over-inflated ownership rate?
…..
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, But make allowance for their doubting too …..Shark, shoal and now consider the pioneering ant.
The colony of ants is presented with two equidistant and identical food sources. The socially predicted outcome will be a mass gathering on only one of the food sources. Will you be the brave pioneering ant who strikes out on its own and feasts on the possibility of excess even if failure will mean social rejection?
I just deleted my team – it’s time to start again.
Enjoy this most significant week!
Kind regards,
Peter J Higginbotham
Ah noooo…too late to go back to formula now, surely?
Got me thinking my Hannebery selection not that I think he's a gun but Shiel wines Parker Duncan I'm sure will be guns to and this is sc could really use the coin to strengthen other lines just hope to get that selection right. I had Hannebery at m4.
I have Hannebery at m4 too. He finished top 10 midfielders last year from memory. Was very strong. High price, yep. It's a bit of a roller coaster….. he went sub-100 7 times, and went +130 8 times!
Duncan had been on the cusp of my team for a while, for a similar price and same team i think Cam Gutherie is going to be the next Jimmy Bartel, may push for a Brownlow this year..?no? Next year.
Another name in the mix
=0
Don't let Higgo get in your head.
Hanners looooves the SCG averaging nearly 130 there last season and the Swans now play every single home game there in the regular season. Confident he will again finish a top 10 mid this season.
Say Yes or No if youre starting with the following
Shaw
Goldy
Gaz
Libba
Crouch
Dusty
Hall
interested to see why or why not people are going in with some of the hype names this preseason
Yes, yes, yes, yes, no, no, yes
Yes, no, yes, yes, no, no, yes
Yes
No
Yes, but starting to rethink it
Yes
No
Initially yes, but of late No
Yes
yes, no, yes, yes, no, no, yes
Goldy and Shaw can be justified selections as both are almost guaranteed to be the highest scoring in their position. The rest are definitely up for debate though
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
yes-no-no-yes-yes-no-yes
no, no, yes, yes, yes, no, yes
yes no yes yes yes no yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes to all except Crouch and Dusty
Yes
Yes yes yes yes no no yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
Yes
Lol – you;ve just named my team – yes to all – Goldy coming in and out though
yes to shaw gaz & crouch
No
No
No
No
Yes x2 M and B
No
Yes
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
YES
NO
No No Yes (at this stage) Yes No No No
Shaw = Yes
Goldy = Yes
Ablett = Yes
Libba = Yes
M Crouch = No
B Crouch = Yes
Dusty = No
Hall = Yes
Yes to all except Dusty or Hall at this stage .
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
If your starting with Gaz, you have to expect Hall to average a whole lot less than his NAB form, previous games together show this all to well. So having Gaz and Hall is a bad idea based on your thoughts that both will score big.
Im not sure how people justify having both in there teams, it doesn't seem clearly thought through with a strategy.
It will be either Gaz has a blinder of a year and Hall picks up his crumbs or Gaz is restricted and Hall takes over as GC's main man for a while at least.
OR
Im completely wrong and have no idea.
Hall set to play in the midfield this year regardless of Gaz being absent or otherwise and with their other injury problems, I see no reason why both can't go big. Using stats based on last years approach is taking a too simplistic view, the world (at least on the Gold Coast) has changed and we need to change with it. Both in my team BP, reward far outweighs the risk on this one IMHO.
As for the list I have them all except Dusty and he was in till his old fellas issues and he spudded it up, fragile psyche with him rearing its head again so issues in his personal life not what you want especially when paying top dollar, replaced ironically for this thread, with Hall and cash used to get Gaz back in after he turned up for the launch in Melbourne, something people seem to forget he didn't do last year as he was concerned about his body and if the great man feels comfortable in his skin then that's good enough for me.
No to Dusty and Crouch (if not named round 1) the rest yes.
have people gone cold on Bartel? Hasnt been spoken about as much lately. Still a good choice?
He is in my team Tret. People are scared he will be rested or get injured. Not sure why as last year was his only year he had been injured. As for resting, there has been no real indication it will happen.
I don't like the Bartel pick either. Long in the tooth. Will get rested. I think there are some other contenders around that price range who could be real options as keepers – Simpson, KK, Docherty (maybe?), Laird is only a little bit more expensive and a definite keeper. Brodie Smith even… although there is risk.
You say Bartel is too "long in the tooth" but then suggest to pick Simpson…
Long in the tooth is such a cop out!
They are playing on the book ends not pushing themselves through the middle, though i expect we will see Bartel playing all over the pitch like a majestic beast he is.
Not in my starting team (probably should be), but i expect he will make it in at some point.
No I've still got Jimmy B in the backline. I've gone cold on Dusty even with Lids out. I'm thinking maybe Robinson now
Why would Bartel be rested? Considering the longer-toothed Corey Enright played 21 games last year, I'd be thinking old mate Bartel will play every game he's good to go for.
The concussion will knock him back a bit. It usually takes four or five weeks for players scores to recover after a bout and they're more susceptible to injury in the aftermath.
This is arguably your finest hour Higgo.
Simple, subtle and significant.
Great insight Higgo and keep up the great work you do for this community.
But I for one will not be changing my team again as I was never one who was very interested in poetry.
I was happy with having a different team. Then big Carl revealed his and I was dissapionted only two different players. One a rookie. So now what do I do? I want to change….I think I will , there were a couple more risks I wanted to take and this from Higgo has encouraged me. I don't care if it fails, chances are I won't win 50k anyway. "There can be only one" and in fact I think I am more likely to win if I am different. Of course that doesn't mean I'm picking Cloak.
Annoying cos I've been settled on my side for almost two weeks, a very long time in fantasy land.
I think there are improvements on Big Carl's team at the margin; remember the beautiful quote "If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants." (I Newton) It might only be one or two you need…and that trading is where the season is won or lost. Stay strong.
Nice
Great advice there RC!
Houli and Robinson, or Birchall and Dusty?
How about Birchall and Mitch Robinson?
I'm going with Bartel & Robinson now. I've just dropped Dusty out of the side. I'm still thinking about Wingard though. Bennell has done the calf again and there not sure yet how much damage has been done
Going Houli and Robinson. Robo will be a good POD
not anymore.
Houli and Robbo for mine
McGovern or Johannisen?
Jock gave one of them the green light…I tend to think the same…
Very good point, thanks.
McGovern
JJ worth the punt I reckon
Laird, Hurn and Smith
or
Shaw, Hurn/Smith and weitering
Shaw Hurn Weitering
I have Shaw Laird Hurn and Weitering
What would Shaw have to average to keep his starting price?
Fanfooty has each player's break even avg bud.
Rand where are they i cant find them?
Implied breakeven on each player profile page. Eg danger 119.4
Other way is to calculate a constant based on non injured players. From memory it's bout 18.5 points per 100k spent on a player
There is some detailed stuff last year on this site bout pricing and magic number etc.
Here is what I was talking about… how to calculate price change each week. http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2013/04/10/trading…
Lots. But if you never have to trade him his price fluctuations won't matter one bit.
Whatever his average was last year.
Teams starting with all these players together Fyfe Danger Rocky Shiel Goldy Martin Barlow Rich all have there bye together…Concern?
Sorry & Shaw!
Thank God I haven't got Chopsticks (but I have the rest)
No-Yes-Yes-Maybe-No-No-Yes-No-Yes
This is why I'm not starting Danger and Fyfe. It may bite me in the butt though.
You can't win all the bye rounds.Therefore 2 out 3 ain't bad to quote a Meat Loaf song.. Seems this bye round will be a doughnut for me
Okay I'll be the one to ask, can someone who subscribes to Gold please post The Phantom's team reveal? Thanks!
Ooooo that would be an interesting side….
I think you mean a Herald Sun digital subscriber pass …. and yes I happen to have one of those so you're in luck!
THE PHANTOM
Shaw, KK, Smith, Harwood, Weitering, Brown (Hartley, Broad)
Danger, Gaz, Gray, Rocky, Cripps, Libba, B.Crouch, Mills (Menadue, Hewett, Davis)
Goldy, Gawn (Chol)
Barlow, Greene, De Goey, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge (Petracca, Grimley)
I could post the entire article but a) that wouldn't be right and b) I really don't want to get sued! 🙂
Geez cripps is tempting.
great side by the phantom but still a few maybes kk harwood b smith b crouch injury greene de goey petracca not playing grimley no money whats ur thoughts addict
Premo differences aside I give the thumbs up to his overall structure although his defence is perhaps a little more midprice mayhem for my own taste as I prefer a pure GnR flavour on that particular line myself this season.
However we have the identical philosophy in seeking value in the forward line and we both have De Goey at F3 and Wells at F4. Although interestingly he's not buying into the hype surrounding Hall and rolling with the Greene Machine instead at F2.
He'll make the same tweaks to rookies that we'll all make Thursday night so wouldn't read too much into those picks there.
But in a nutshell I like his squad a lot and think he'll have another tremendous season.
I'm sorry but I have to ask who is The Phantom, and where does he generally finish?
The Adelaide Advertiser's resident fantasy guru.
Finished 30th overall in the nation last year and knows a thing or two about how to approach this Supercoach caper.
Has a lot of interesting fantasy titbits on his twitter feed so you should check it out Connor:
https://twitter.com/thephantomsc
He's a SuperCoach writer for the Adelaide Advertiser (and associated papers) Connor. Finished 30th overall last year and has very reasoned views. As an aside on his team choice of Greene v Hall he's said it's a personal choice due to him having Greene in from the beginning, (was in his initial team reveal back in Jan), and he's said he just can't fit Hall in but there's no doubting him anymore so not sure SCAs view is entirely accurate. I share his faith in Cripps also and he's got my VC loophole going into the opening game, can't wait for that first bounce of the year!
How do u work out what a players break even will be?
It is available with a gold subscription to supercoach
Have a look above re: comments on Shaw. Implied breakeven for season on fanfooty under player profile. Or you can calc it yourself. 🙂 Cheers
Community,
Laird & B.Crouch
Or
Shaw & Oliver
1
2
2
Aaaaaah….from the comment I see the herd is in no danger!!! But, like lostlarrikan, I agree that…This is arguably your finest hour Higgo.
Simple, subtle and significant.
excellent advice Higgo. In other words, its ok to start the year with Lobbe?
Please do it just so the rest of us can see what happens haha
there is a saying "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me".
the sound of the Bell-chambers is still ringing in my ears from last year!
Another absolutely brilliant article Higgo! 1st time poster & let me say im honoured to be on board. Defo best fantasy website on the land so thank you very much jock & team -legends.
Im about 85% happy with my current team, with the def doing my head in this yr – just looks crap with whatever options i come up with:
Def: Laird, McGovern, JJ, Seedsman, M. Brown, Adams, Broad, Ruggles
Mid: Ablett, Pendles, Gray, Shiels, Rocky, Duncan, B. Crouch, Mills, Menadue, Gresham, Davis
Ruck: Nic, Gawn, Grims
Fwd: Barlow, Robbo, Hall, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge, McCarthy,Tippa.
$30k left over.
I comfortably think i have 12 keepers, with worst case 3 stepping stones (duncan, crouch, wells).
Prob like everyone the biggest concern i have is my def, but just cant offload the cash on shaw or the veterans over $500k. I like players that are a gd chance to play 20+ games.
Player selections that are doing my head in are:
Duncan v jelwood (concerned jelwood is not right)
B. Crouch v Libba (concerned with libba coming back from acl will he generate enough coin?)
JJ v Bartel v birchall (does anyone know how birchalls knee is – 100%? I do want him!)
Seeds v Sheridan v lonergan.
Very scared about ablett missing games i have him atm, but very tempted 2 bring in a hannerbury, priddis type that are safe 2 play all season. Just dont want to miss on those massive scores he pumps out.
No goldy, shaw, danger, fyfe, martin or lids – confident i can get them cheaper, especially shaw who will be my 1st upgrade.
Btw Jock how do i upload a article? I have prepared a very valuable stat spreadsheet that i would like to share with the community.
Good luck to everyone & please provide feedback on my team & player selections im quelling over – i can take the good, with the bad…:)
Libba definitely over Brouch. 50/50's the rest for mine. I think need to downgrade to Dea in the backline. Then libba in. Cheers
Jelwood had a good game on the weekend didn't he? I'd take him over Duncan any day.
Crouch and Libba.
I'm not going to make a choice here because it's just a guess / biased opinion, anything can happen with these guys and both potentially can score huge.
JJ v Bartel v Birchall.
Tough one. Maybe Birchall. Has been pretty consistent for several years. Bartel won't be getting much mid time. JJ has unpredictable scoring imo.
Seeds v Sheridan v Lonergan.
Another tough one. My guess is 1. Lonergan, 2. Seeds, 3. Sheridan.
Let me throw Cam Guthrie into your Geelong Mix.
You should be looking at Libba vs Hunter
Id look at Lonergan out of those.
Thanks Ben, but dont confuse me anymore with more cat players 🙂 I definitely have considered hunter, but just cant afford/fit him in ahead of any of my other preferred selections.
Thanks mate. I think Duncan is in for a big year though wont get tagged, but love jelwood how he goes about it. Plays through injuries & i think with danger on board can only help him get back to that 115+ avg, especially with the cats draw. Yep thats why i like birchall consistent & at that perfect age with thinking he will be the #1 rebounding defender again with gibbo going back to a more kpp role. I know you cant take 2 much out of nab, but just like how the crows used seeds in that attacking role.
I have Selwood in my team, i definitely think with Danger around will only help Selwoods scoring too.
I have gibbo in my team, been trying to find where it was stated that he was going to play a KPP role this year.
after reading some interestig stats from him last year, i have no idea why on earth they would play him as a KPP.
Is it bad that I can't wait to see who the biggest burnmen of the season will be? Geez i'm hoping it's the Crouch boys.
Crows do have a tough start, they will be made to earn their points.
Yes it's bad, it means you enjoy other people's suffering 🙂
Which option is better?
Goldy and J Selwood
or
Ablett and Sauce Jacobs
Higgo, what is a single trade worth in Supercoach dollar terms? That is, if you could purchase additional trades out of your $10million war chest, what would a single trade be worth? I've seen $150k thrown around but I've not seen any basis for that figure. Whatever the actual figure is, I think it may help inform our strategies. PS: Great article, well done mate
30*$150k=$4.5m
Total team value over $14m…which is what you should be aiming for. There is a bit of an allowance for injury trades and the players you bring in making some ca$hola. No science though…you take what you can get 🙂
Not sure if anyone has done something more scientific than that…
Thanks mate – that makes sense
Barlow is the best example of what Higgo is talking about. Ross made some comment we all jumped on. The NAB Cup seemed to confirm it, but with Mundy missing at least one and Fyfe being eased in, that was always going to happen. I was not considering Barlow at all, but now it is difficult to unlock him. To take it one step further, if we are fully convinced on Barlow, does that mean we shouldn't pick Fyfe? Can he live up to that price tag with Barlow taking extra midfield minutes and Bennell coming in? I have Fyfe and Barlow and I am starting to feel like it is a little illogical
Feeling the same about Gaz and Hall.
Barlow and Fyfe will both be fine. Just look back 2 seasons ago when they played in the mids together.
There is alot more than just Barlow and Fyfe…
Im taking Barlow to start, i think Bennel will be better later in the year.
So much guess work going into SC teams this year, and real teams will evolve as well in turn will change our SC teams.
We rely on previous years experience and what we read and hear in the footy media, but still so much quess work with a big interchange difference.
Outstanding Higg!
Bring on Thursday night!
Where have you been all preseason? Haven't seen any of your comments in ages
G'day Joe!
Posted a few comments early in the pre season, but not much recently. Super Coach doing my head in. Haven't once been happy with my team when i've clicked the log out button.
How is you team coming along mate? Hope you've settled on a team better than i have!
Yeh pretty much locked all non-rookies except for 1 player. Big POD, just not sure if he's worth the risk or not. Good luck for the season mate!
Grouse Higgo, wise as always.
need everyones advice here
gotta make the choice between Rampe and Birchall?
Cheers lads
Tough one that Jimmy, but I reckon Birchalls shown enough in nab to prove to us his knees alright. I've been trying to fit him in but just can't do it, defence sucks this year but when doesn't it!
Hey guys,
Any more leagues that haven't been filled out entirely? I usually like to be in at least 5 leagues per season I've played SC, and I'm only in the 2 right now.
For any free leagues remaining chuck me some league codes, cheers. 🙂
To clarify, the 2 SC Original leagues, and I'm making a debut in SC Draft this season (never played the format before).
229043, about to throw it open. Just me and couple of mates there at moment. Anyone welcome provided seeing season out. Cheers.
Cheers mate 🙂
571790 and 991457
736716 is a league with a few guys from this community would be happy if you could join cliffy 🙂
Giday Cliffy, I have some leagues you're very welcome to become a part of, feel free to join up and invite your mates too if they wanna have a fun season
923515
487007
716047
598192
887856
821086
You should join ten leagues mate, that's the max this year, more chances to be the king of the league 🙂
Thanks so much Russ, Marc, Hounddog, legends 🙂
Now that Lids is out? Is the Community thinking of Bringing D. Martin back in the FWD line?
Good question. I am considering Joey to keep to my team structure, but am worried about his injury-toll at his age.
Oh, favourite line of the injury update "Sharron Wellingham will have a delayed start to the season due to a knee injury." Who is typing this stuff? http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-injury-wrap-b…
Unless you trade out Lids for Martin, doesn't make a difference.
No
No mate, reason I flicked Dusty, (and it shits me to do it), is his balsa wood psyche, everything needs to be going right for him and it's clearly not at the moment. Potentially worth the risk to me if he had some upside value as well but think he's fully priced.
Petracca is expected to return to match practice within two weeks.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-03-20/demons-make…
Thoughts on Callan ward as a pod? Also thoughts on Corey Enright and Mitch Duncan! Recon Duncan will have a big year and Enright is super consistent
shhhhh ward is my POD
duncans a gun not sure how danger will affect his score though
Ward is solid but there are higher upside selections at a similar price IMO – pick him if you like him though
Pretty good choice I reckon Gibbs, I've gone Cripps myself but I'd be happy with Ward also just a preference really so back your gut mate.
Rate my team fellas
DEF- Shaw, Laird, JJ, Weitering, Dea, Hartley (Brown, K.Collins)
MID- Fyfe, Danger, Priddis, JPK, Rocky, Libba, B.Crouch, Mills (Gore, Keays, Davis)
RUCK- Nic Nat, Gawn (Grimley
FOR- Barlow, Greene, Hall, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge (Mcdonald-Tipungwati, Petracca)
Like it. Brad crouch would be my only concern
Cheers buddy
I'd prefer to have Crouch instead of an onfield rookie and I hope that if he doesn't perform my premos can cover him
Looking good Ethan, prefer Hanners to JPK personally but don't have either. Nothing to fault it really although Petracca unlikely to play first few rounds at least and I'd take Adams over Brown if named.
Bennel also wont play round 1 ,confirmed on AFL Website
Priddis, Pendles or Hanners?
Thanks in advance community!
Hanners.
Priddis for me
Pridda
Priddis. Reliable and no chance of a role change
Pendlebury, won't be affected by tag and doesn't have a slow start to the season
Priddis
Like many other people I am not sure about how Dusty Martin is going to fair with the situation he is in at the moment.
I already have Barlow and Greene in the fwd line. If I were to replace Dusty, who would everyone say is the next biggest priority to have in there?
Let me know your suggestions.
Thanks.
I have him and now that Deledio is out I'm considering whether to put the VC on him, I know his form against Carlton is not great but I'm expecting a big game from him and his Father would be urging him on to do so.
Wingard is a good option and not to many have him either!
Hey guys, I'd love some input on a selection dilemma I'm having…
M Boyd and Weitering
or
Rich and Lonergan
What does the community think?
Option one: Keeper and significant cash generator.
Option two: Likely burn man and likely burn man.
I'm inclined to say go with option 1 as one keeper/one stepping stone option as opposed to two mid-pricers that can be up and down.
1
Hi Sarah
I much prefer 1 over 2 (more guns/rookie which is my pref), but I do know a team that I respect a lot that is running scenario 2. Basically it depends on how many other keepers (inc mid priced junk) you have. If with scenario 1 you have 16 (maybe even 15) potential keepers inc Wells then do that IMO. 14 keepers, then you might value the consistency for a bit longer. That said I just don't trust myself to pick breakout players like Lonergan consistently. Thanks for the call on Gazza's dud shoulder last year. Really appreciate your input into the community.
What are you thoughts on this combo conundrum of mine:
1. Laird + Crouch
2. Shaw + Oliver
Cheers
Thanks randomcliche, I guess the same advice applies to your scenario as well. It's down to the total number of keepers. Personally though, I like option 1 better. Is there another way to get Shaw, Laird and Crouch?
Thanks Sarah. With the heater option its 15 keepers (inc 3 good quality mid pricers…ya Hall/Libba types) but it pushes out to 15+ stepping stone/over half season prolly to at least the byes with Crouch. I feel more comfortable with that as its 6 upgrades, circa 12 trades to something resembling full premo before hitting some panic trades through the second/third bye rounds.
I could swap Barlow, Robinson or any premo mid into a Laird at D2 via swings but I just don't see him outscoring those types.
I wouldn't trade out Barlow, so Robinson would seem the one to go if you want to strengthen up your defence a bit. Laird probably won't outscore a Barlow or Robinson… that's not the right question. The right question to ask is will he be a top 6 defender? You need to have 6 defenders on the ground, they'll likely be outscored by most forwards, midfielders and rucks… but you still have to have them! So it's best to have the more reliable (and potentially more expensive) defenders than high risk, cheaper and unproven defenders… feel like I'm stating the obvious but I think I'll be going with a slightly stronger backline for these reasons.
As you rightly identified I'm running the wafer-thin defence model with two premos, as I think there is more growth in a $500k player on the other lines than in def; so its a D2, M8, R2, F4 setup for me (B.Crouch M8). It comes down to when I think I need to invest the cash on each line, which defence is lowest priority..unfortunately I will have to buy 4 premo defenders…if such a thing exists. All the best with your balanced approach, but I think at the margin the loaded mid is a better approach.
2nd option Sarah even though I'm not overly sold on Rich, I think Lonergan has the potential to be a top3 back. The signs are there, similar to Swallow a few years back.
Thanks Phil
Boyd and Weitering
Thanks Danners
Like it's been said Sarah I'd focus on who you think the keepers are. Personally I'd run with Boyd as a great POD and you could get a jump on other wafer-thin defences.
Also, is there any love for Atkins at the crows, tonned up in both his nab games with an impressive 161 pts per 100 min average and a nice price, looking for cover for crouch if not named rd 1, cheers.
I like Atkins a lot, but it's a big risk for a guy who's only played 8 games!! However he's been in the system a couple of years and as you say, he was awesome in the NAB…
Yeah I hear ya' not much confidence in him myself based on those exact points. I was hoping to hear they have designated a role for him, oh well will just have to keep him on the radar as he looks like he could really be something, cheers
Anyone know when the team's come out??
Carlton and Richmond on Wednesday. I'm guessing the rest will come out Thursday as per usual even thought there is no Friday night game.
From memory, last year it was something like Wednesday night for Thursday night game, Thursday night for Saturday games with extended squads for Sunday/Monday games. Friday night should see confirmed lineups for Sunday/Monday games. Hopefully something similar this year (or better…all full teams named wednesday…#unliklely)
Spot on RC was exactly that, unfortunately I can't see it changing, would be nice if it did though.
where do we find out the ownership percentages of players? cheers fellas
Players option below team and then Coaches Choice.
cheers big g brother
I'm considering either Treloar or Adams ? Which do you think community ?
Cheers
Treloar. He will have a dominant year and would be a great early pick. Not many people on him and he is a star.
Adam Treloar that way you pretty much get both….only short an 's'. Doh
if Leuy is fit and named round 1 is he worth a look?
No stay away in my opinion
No. And if someone does happen to say yes, do not listen
I'm picking him REN, confident he will be named….
Burn-man
Only in a rear view mirror! Avoid at all costs the TBC of 2016!
RIghtio, midpricers.
Do I go with M Crouch or B Crouch or Zaharakis or Steele?
Current mid is Fyfe, Dangerfield, Priddis, C Ward, Rockliff, Zaharakis, Libba, Mills int: Keays, Hewitt, R Davis of Suns (Rookie).
I think none of them. Could you spend some more and go a S Gray?
HOw much is S. Gray? Is he potential premo material?
480k – I think he will make cash and be a keeper forward.
Only played 10 games last year. Did really well but unproven imo and high priced. If he continues on his way then would be a good upgrade target.
Locked into Ports midfield & will rest forward and be a goal threat, Hinkley loves him.
Shhhh, stop spilling the good goss
Forward line – steele is a good option here
Matt and Brad Crouch have potential to profit and maybe turn into keepers.
Not sure about Zaha although a good player he's at the dons….so yeah.
Steele could be a very unique pod and will certainly improve his numbers, crouch has best potential though out of that lot I reckon.
Green or S.Gray currently have Toby for cash reasons.
2, a gun.
I think Greene is a better choice. No telling how much time Gray will spend in the middle with Gray, Wines, Boak, Ebert and so going through the guts. I think Greene is a better option as he will be most likely to excel with the departure of Treloar and should spend more midfield time. He can rack up the pill at will as well.
Podcast today or not later this week after team reveals on Wednesday?
Just starting a new league hoping to get in the top 100 leagues anyone feel free to join the codes 736716
Im in
Is it bad for me to take crouch over libba? That extra 50k gets me the team I want
Unproven to me. No one has even seen him play under Pyke and they have a hard draw.
Sometimes you have to go with your gut.
Brad Crouch just got 40 touches in his match on the weekend. If he stays fit he will score well.
Draw won't hurt his performance much, especially considering his biggest game in 2014 was 40 touches against the hawks (with dangerfield also getting 41 touches), must've been roughly 20 years old at that stage of his career.
The only thing you should be worried about with a player with that kind of ability (and at that price) is their fitness to play multiple games.
Coach and opponents are irrelevant.
Asked this above but didnt include the positions which I think effect the decision made
Should I take:
Laird (d1), Smith (d2), Hurn (d3), Harwood (d4)
or
Shaw (d1), Hurn/Smith (d2), Harwood (d3), Weitering (d4)
2
Thanks Bec. There is plenty to argue for the #1 defender and top quality growth option in the mids…
1
I reckon it depend on your keepers elsewhere Ren, I'm running with weitering at d4 currently as you need to take risks somewhere and defence seems the most logical place, especially with the bombers fillers able to take field spots, option 2 for me.
Please rate my team…. all comments are welcome
Def- Shaw , Laird , Sheridan , Aish , Weitering , Dea
(Hartley, Collins)
Mid- Fyffe , Dangerfield , Pendlebury , Ablett , Priddis , Liberatore , Mills , Oliver ( Gore , Dunkley , Davis)
Ruck- Goldy , Gawn ( Grimley )
Fow- Barlow , Gray , Wells , Kennedy , Menadue , Kerridge
( Adams , Brown)
you have gone with some heavy hitters in the midfield. couldn't find a spot for Rocky? he is really good value.
Defence looks good – although I'm not sure you'll get much from Aish, I'd look elsewhere.
Your other lines are really solid. There are some slight variations (Rocky, Martin, Crouch, Hall) to others but generally looks like a popular side.
Love the Priddis POD. Not sure about the Aish pick though! Big nuts
Need some help, defence is still bugging me
Def-Shaw, Laird, JJ, Weitering, Dea, Broad (Adams, Brown)
Mid-Fyfe, Pendles, Priddis, Gray, Rocky, Libba, Mills, Oliver (Menadue, Clarke, Davis)
Ruc- Nic Nat, Gawn (Loersch)
For-Wingard, Barlow, Hall, Wells, Kennedy, Kerridge (Grimley, Mcdonald Tip….)
Does anyone know when your team needs to be finally locked in? Can we still make changes to our sides after the Richmond Carlton game? Or is it like a normal rolling lockout where changes can't be reversed once the round has started.
Can't remember what happened last year.
Thanks in advance, and all the best to everyone for the year ahead.
You still have unlimited trades throughout the weekend but obviously players who have played can't be traded in or out.
Thanks Jordan
pretty sure you can make changes after the richmond carlton game just not to those players
Thanks Gordo29 I hoped that was the case
Rate my team please…
DEF- Shaw, Laird, JJ, T Mckenzie, Weitering, Dea ( Hartley, Brown)
MIDS – Fyfe, Danger, Pendles, Priddis, Liba, B.Crouch, Mills, Oliver (Gore, Macpherson, Davis)
RUC – Goldy, Gawn (Loersch)
FWD – Barlow, Hall, De goey, Wells, Kerridge, Mccarthy ( Mcdonald, Grimly)
207 K left
use the 207k to go mckenzie to KK or Degoey up
Cookie cutter
Only Tigers and Blues players you want need to be locked in on thursday. U should be able to select all the players from the other clubs on the Friday still
What is everyone's thoughts on Corey Enright? If he was to play every game, is he worth looking at as a POD?
One of the most consistent players ever.
Has averaged 90-100 SC for the last 10 years. No exaggeration.
and with Thurlow out, will definitely keep those points rolling in consistantly
I am highly considering him at the moment
Can't doubt his reliability, much like Simpson and Bartell, they usually deliver.
DEF: Shaw. Laird. Bartel. Rich. Dea. Hartley. (Collins. McDonald-Tip)
MID: Fyfe. Ablett. Selwood. Rocky. Libba. Mills. Oliver. Gresham. (Petracca. Davis. Gore)
RUC: Goldstein. Naitanui. (Chol)
FWD: Martin. Wingard. Barlow. Wells. kennedy. Kerridge. (Kommer. Brown)
$7,500 in the bank.
Going with a Guns n rookie team.
Ballys having Mills and Oliver, could be a winner though, good luck
I'm not the biggest fan of the Kommer pick. I'd prefer Grimley so you can use him as ruck cover if need be by swinging him with Chol. Neither Chol or Grimely will score very big so probably not much difference between cash generation, just offers a little more cover in case one of the ruck boys goes down. Nice team otherwise.
I see potentially 6 of your picks not playing round one.
Who are the 6??