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NAB ANALYSIS: St Kilda v Melbourne

Published by Jock on

Jock Reynolds Coach Kings

Young Clayton Oliver put his hand up this afternoon community

I’d expect a steep rise in his Supercoach selection percentage this week after an impressive 92 Supercoach point performance here today.

The $207,300 Midfielder is currently tucked into 8% of our teams. That’ll rise. The question for our community is – can you find a place for the kid?

Outs of significance:

Melbourne: Billy Stretch, Jayden Hunt, Dean Terlich, Heritier Lumumba, Lynden Dunn, Christian Petracca, Chris Dawes

St Kilda: Paddy McCartin, Hugh Goddard, Billy Longer, Eli Templeton, Tom Lee

The young kid has gradually increased his output throughout the NAB, collecting 11, 17 and today 18 possessions. It was his impact on the game today that will impress Demon fans. I don’t feel as if we’re looking at a bloke that can knock out regular 90’s.. or even regular 75’s here. He kicked 2 goals against a flat St Kilda outfit in a day out and at this stage he’s a no for me.

If you didn’t know much about Jack Watts (FWD/MID $381K) before this pre season you’d be having a good think about finding a spot for him in your forward line. He backed up again today to be one of Melbourne’s best for 99 Supercoach points. We do know a fair bit about Jack Watts though. Please don’t select him folks.

At one stage I put some real thought into self pleasuring over the performance of Jack Steven (MID $562,700) today. 8 clearances, 30 possessions and 115 Supercoach points. As pleased as I was with this magnificent midfield workhorse it’s probably a mistake to lock him into your team given the season St Kilda are likely to have, and the attention Jack will attract from the opposition this season.

Just when my Jack Steven arousal has subsided I got to thinking about Jack Billings. To say I’m rapt this kid is in the red, white and black is an understatement. 3 goals, 19 possessions but was surprised to see just the 80 odd Supercoach points. Just out of selection calculations at $455,100 as a FWD option.

No change in my assessment of Max Gawn (RUC $550,800) after today. 111 Supercoach points in a solid performance. He didn’t have it all his won way in the ruck contest today with Tom Hickey showing a bit. He still had the 26 hitouts (to Hickey’s 20) but still did enough around the ground to rack up the points. A good sign.

Young Ben Kennedy (FWD/MID $187,800) needs to find his way into our teams. Clearly best 22 now for mine after a wonderful NAB, showing he can mix it with the big pricks at the highest level. 85 Supercoach points today, 16 posessions and pumped it inside 50 5 times. Just one small bone on some of these Melbourne performances though.. yes.. they’ve won all 3 NAB clashes. Yes, they looked good NAB1. But in reality they played a Dog’s lineup last week missing no less that 16 of their best 22, and St Kilda was off the boil today. I think we’ll learn what some of these kids are really made of when the real stuff kicks off.

Point of difference selection Jack Viney (MID $497,100) looked the goods again. He was better than his 89 Supercoach points. He’s tough. He’s hard. He had it 23 times today. And he works as well on the inside as he does skirting off the pack. Not in my team at this price but those keen on him as a selection would not have changed their decision based on today.

Some eyebrows were raised by Sam Gilbert (DEF/MID $434,600) spending some time in the midfield today. And I didn’t mind his game. 25 disposals, 3 clearances and some good contested possession. 85 Supercoach points and an option for the impressively robust of plumb here.

Tomas Bugg also had a ripping game but don’t go doing anything silly like putting him into your team.

What did you see folks?

 




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mightymouse_88

thoughts on Jack Billings? could he take the next step? looked pretty good today

Chill

Shhhhh

Phil Tony's Cracken

No!!! If you want him you can have him!

Danners

Did look good, could be a good POD, although better options at his price

Cpt Pugwash

Not for me.

Daniel Caleb community. 88 SC points against the pies $295 from memory!!!

yoyo

gresham worth mentioning
showed a bit

Phil Tony's Cracken

Gresham a big N. O.!

tttt

why is he a no ?

Liam

If he is named, he is locked for me.

@LoopyHermit

Agreed Liam. Midfield Rookie of reasonable caliber priced below 150k seems to be hard to find this year. IF named jump on.

matt

hey guys, 2 very strong leagues here containing a few top 500 players from last year hoping to push for #1 overall league, join up to either if you feel competitive, hope to play against some of you soon
142739
616162

wayne

Im in 616162 .cheers

Rakesh

660437

Max

Geez I'd love to see Jack Watts soar to the heights that his draft selection promised.

I reckon he can.

Paul

He's always been a very classy and skillful player. It's just the competitive spirit that he's always struggled with, and the No.1 pressure. Ol mate Hogan will have relieved a fair bit of that pressure now, nobody really expects that much from Watts anymore, so he might just break out.

Ranga

Order of oreference of Wells/Hall/Steele/De Goey/ Matt Crouch?

Paul

Me, I'd probably go Wells, Crouch, Hall, Steele, De Goey. Throw a blanket over them though.

Leeds17

No Greene?

Canny the Manny

Jack Steele and Matt Crouch aren't worth considering in my opinion. I'm surprised by the amount of people who have M Crouch in their teams, he's a decent enough player but he's at an awkward price and I doubt he can continue his NAB form consistently throughout 2016.
Hall is an interesting pick. I've considered him but I don't think he should be so eagerly whacked into our teams. We do need to remember this is the NAB challenge and that he probably won't see as much midfield time as seen so far with a full strength GCS team fit and firing. 430k is also an awkward price; he'll struggle to finish in the top 6 (or 10) forwards this year and I'm not sure he'll be very effective as a cash-cow when you can get Wells or Menzel 200k cheaper.
I have no problem with people selecting DeGoey this season although I'll struggle to fit him in. He seems to have really matured and Buckley obviously loves him, but I've said it before, Collingwood's midfield is the strongest on paper. I'd reconsider starting with any magpie mid in 2016 (although DeGoey's DPP status does bode well for him).
Cheers

Also, Wells is a lock.

Ethan

Agree with the hall point, he will regain the form he had from last season when he was insterted into the midfield but when you start to bring back the likes of O'meara, Prestia and Swallow later on. Hall may spend some more time off the ball which may affect his scoring output. It could result in you making a late season trade.

Holty

i agree that he will spend less time on the ball when the mids return but the main question i look at: 'can he average 95 this year? he will be a keeper if he can and at his price, he is the best value out there.

Liam

Wells, Hall, De Geoy, Crouch, Steele.
Crouch only because he is mid only.

Paul

Is Clayton Oliver too expensive to have on the bench? I could swap him for Gresham with my left over coin…is it worth it?

Scott

Depends who gets picked r 1. Do you have Mills and or Parish who are similar priced? It does seem too much to have on the bench, maybe you could spend the extra cash to upgrade someone on one of your other lines.

Paul

Yeah, both Mills and Parish are on the ground. He's an expensive start, but a cash cow is a cash cow. Hard to justify doing it though. Only 65k or so left in the kitty, so there's not much to upgrade.

It'll have to be decided after R1 teams are named I guess. Good to have some extra cash there in case some of the lower priced bench players aren't picked.

Danners

Definitely too bigger spend to have on the bench. Should only have players $123,900 or lower

hedeski

Cant remember reading that in the rules danners

Holty

i honestly think he is. if you select him, imo you need to start him.

jack

currently have enright, simpson and kk in the backline with 3 rookies (brown,harltey,collins) and in the mids theres fyfe, pendles, gaz, shiel, rockliff, libba, kerridge and mills. should I get rid shiels for someone midpricer to upgrade one of my backline rookies? if so any recommendations?

Cozza

I'd be concerned about the tooth length of the backline. Both Enright and Simpson in their 30s and likely to miss games during the season, injuries aside. I'd only be thinking about 1 max between those 2 this year.

Looks like your midfield is already 1 premo short on a lot of midfields going around, which indicated to me you have probably spent more $$ in the forwards. I wouldn't be downgrading the mids, but would look to swing Kerridge to the forwards and downgrade one of them if you are concerned about the backs.

Dan

Agree with Kerridge to the fwd line.

Scott

Jack I think a lot of us are going through the same dilemma, especially with so much uncertainty around the backline. I have just done a similar thing to see what it looked like, so now I only have 2 rookies in the backline.

Puck Jump

"At one stage I put some real thought into self pleasuring over the performance of Jack Steven (MID $562,700) today…"

Herein layeth the funniest thing i've read in 2016 thus far…

Holty

he will be a very good pod this year.

George

Thoughts?
I have chosen a risky structure but am hoping some midpricers will pay off.

D: Gov, JJ, Wilson, Wei, Hartley, Brown (AMT, Ruggles)
M: Fyfe, Danger, Priddis, Ward, Shiel, Crippaa, Libba, Mills (Gresham, Mathieson, Keays)
R: Goldy, Gawn (Chol)
F: Barlow, Robinson, De Goey, Steele, Wells, Kerridge (Grimely, Mccarthy)

I know that McGovern, Johanissen, Wilson, De Goey and Steele seem risky but we can't all have the same team, can we? :):)

Advice?

Danners

Need to strengthen up your defence, maybe swap Wilson/Weitering for Laird and get a rookie midfielder for Cripps/Ward/Shiel which ever one you have least faith in

Paul

Agreed. Brown has struggeld the last few games.

Don't swap Weitering though….he's a real footballer and will get protection from 2 old timers. Will probably get rested at times, but not for the first 6 weeks.

Scyb

Come join my league 243665 🙂 Seasoned SC players please

Jabba

Done, thanks!

Phil Tony's Cracken

Naw …..you arent good enough …..Done thanks!

G. B.

Jock help me

I am struggling with mid and fwd rookies.

In the guts I have petracca, Mathieson and freeman. Freeman has injury cloud, petracca doesn't seem to be playing till round 3 or 4 and Mathieson got a heavy knock today.

In the forward line I have McCarthy, kerridge, kommer Adams and grimly.

Please help need your insight.

Thanks

G

Steeeve

Best not to stress, wait until round one sides are announced

George

Great write up, not only this one but all the ones throughout the nab have been wonderful, well done, jock, patch, bvc, lekdog and co. I think that the community as a whole needs to be congratulated on the nab challenge, lots of wisdom shared, advice given and teams improved, clap clap

Cozza

Hear, hear – much indebted for the work you guys have all put in.

Kev

Well said, George

Liam

Parker or Wines community?! I cannot decide 🙁

Chill

They will both kill themselves at some point during the season. I think Wines has better upside, he will produce less 70s than Parker will. But Parker will probably play more games. Overall I'd go Wines.

@might_be_jack

Liam, Parker every day of the week. There's probably 8 mids in the AFL who can dictate the outcome of a game on their lonesome and he is one of them! If he goes up forward, that's fine, goals aren't a bad thing and it's not as though he's going to be playing 80% of time as a forward pocket! If he stays healthy all year he's a guaranteed 105+ player.

Phil

Don't know about all you but I was reasonably settled with my side/structure up until this week but this weeks given me more questions than answers.
Also great job on putting Maxy Gawn onto my watchlist (and then my R2) before he had even played a NAB game Jock. He is to you what Johannsen is to Patch and Hall to Lekdog, great job to you guys

Greg

Steele or Boekhorst or Menzel?

Ethan

try to have none, all really awkwardly priced. Seek for rookie priced players

David

2 forwards for 690k? I already have Barlow, Robinson, Wells, Kerrigde (McCarthy, Grimely)

jimmy7

sam gray and ben kennedy

Liam

Dusty and Petracca

branthubber

Z.Merret, B.Kennedy

jimmy7

Thats it, save ourselves for the finals st kilda, stuff nab cup……….jks jks…. but seriously… sorry for being nnoying and putting my team up, but im turning gray i think, and im a teenager……???

jimmy7

tear shreds off me……..

DEF: SHAW. HOULI. SMITH. WEITERING. BROWN. HARTLEY (COLLINS, WAGNER)
MID: DANGER..ABLETT..JPK..ROCKLIFF..BOAK..LIBA..MILLS..MENADUE (MACPERSON..GRESHAM..PETRECCA)
RUC: GOLDY.. GAWN (GRIMLEY)
FWD: DUSTY..BARLOW..GRAY..WELLS..KENNEDY..KERRIDGE (ANTHONY MCDONLAD..COX)

Cozza

That looks pretty good to me Jimmy. Like the structure. I query Boak, can't see him being a premo or increasing his output on previous years, but he is a POD – could be a stoke of genius!

@LoopyHermit

Good Solid Team. Nothing to tear shreds off. Couple of players in their that Im not sold on, but thats purely to do with my own opinion, & at this time of the year you dont need someone second guessing you. Hell the ones I doubt could end up being stella picks n win you the chocolates.

hawkboy80

love it !!

Sean

Can anyone name 4 starting rookies in the mids 120k?

Phil Tony's Cracken

Can you?

Westy

Has Trengove made an appearance yet for the Dees? Maybe I just need to get on the Mills/Oliver/Parish train instead.

Hawks

Which of the bomber rookie priced defenders is the best?

Brown, Dea, Harley, ATM

Bongwaterbrawlers

ATM?

Paul

AMT

Hawks

Was thinking of taking the cash out of the cash-cow, hence ATM, rather than AMT

Phil

Brown & Hartley have extremely good JS, better than any other rookie. Dea's is so/so
Brown has the best scoring potential if played in defence, otherwise he had the worst out of the 3 if forward.

Paul

Milera annnnnddddd Z Merrett maybe? Mitch Robinson? Buddy? Plenty to choose from with 515k.

Phil Tony's Cracken

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! TRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Merrett is the obvious tag!!!! If you take anyone from ESS its the def because they will surely be busy!!!!

Marcus

I believe that jack billings along with De Geoy will have break out years however billings is a very awkward price!
Thoughts on billings?
Also thoughts Ben Kennedy who will play most games and will get much better scores considering no more sub rule?

Bongwaterbrawlers

Lock kennedy and Wells down front, Wells will serve you well with an average of 90+ and a great upgrade option by rds 7-10…IF INJURY FREE.

Kennedy is a money maker, is nothing more then that.

@might_be_jack

I'm really really really tempted to fit Jack "dollar dollar" Billings into my team as well, the lad is a surefire star if he stays out of the rehab group! Though I just feel that at around that price, you're better off with Toby Greene who's proven himself a high scorer in the past, and even Aaron "ball" Hall, what with all of GC's mid injuries and his continued scoring. Surely Rocket isn't going to ignore this kid's midfield game for someone like Jesse Longergan?

@might_be_jack

Lonergan* and to let you know how highly I rate Jacky "dollar dollar" Billings, I'd have him before I had Buddy or Zach Merrett. The kid is a bloody Maserati!

Swansong

Still can't decide between Pendlebury or ablett bit worried ablett not going to be 100%

jimmy7

ablett!!!!!!!! just look at the scores he racks up!

Hawks

I've gone without both, just think Fyfe, Danger, Priddis are all better options given Ablett (unsighted) and Pendles (role?)

Phil Tony's Cracken

Love it I hope everyone passes on Pendels!!!!

Phil Tony's Cracken

Pendels on my side and always will be til his time is done! Everyone goin Fyfe Danger and Ablett and I love it! I'm Going Fyfe Pendels Danger and maybe Ablott? But doubt it if does good I can upgrade. He's an injury worry not worth worrying about at this stage. He is an easy upgrade if he goes off.

Holty

like it hawks. although i dont agree with it, you are going with what you think and not what others think. this could pay off for you.

Phil Tony's Cracken

LOL Ablett…he is a great player! If you want no injury woe's and a consistent solid player you will go with Pendels! Ablett is old….love the guy but he burned me last year! I will take a healthy player over someone that everyone thinks he's still 25!!! Not worthy a chance or the pick if he comes u lame like he did last year!

hedeski

I dont have ablett or rocky…yet

Phil Tony's Cracken

Wise man!

Siri

DEF – shaw, laird, KK, suckling, trent Mckenzie, weitering (brown and hartley)

MID – fyfe , danger, pendles, priddis, liba, miles, parish, oliver (gore, matheison and macpherson)

RUK – goldy and gawn (korchek)

FWD – Barlow, hall, wells, menadue, McCarthy, kerridge (ellis and mcdonald)

WHAT DO U THINK COMMUNITY

Thanks…. SIRI

Hawks

I would stay away from Suckling, may JJ is better.

Like the Miles selection.

Well balanced team, not to mid-line focused, like many teams I've seen, possibly including my own.

@grayson_lowee

Downgrade one of T.Mckenzie or Suckling and upgrade one of your forwards, other than that great team

Josh

Wingard or hall

@grayson_lowee

That's a tough one, for me i feel like wingard will be the more consistent of the two, but Hall has a high ceiling and really great potential.

George

Too deep in defence for my liking, but scanning through the rest of your selections your team isn't too bad

Bongwaterbrawlers

Corey gault been upgraded to Collingwood senior list,
Worth a look in do you reckon @215k avergaed near 80 in 3 games.

Spudo

Thoughts on Tom McDonald? Absolutely loved him last year but am doubting selection at his price. Is he worth it? Or are there better options?

Paul

I'm querying this as well. Started the year brilliantly last year, so I think I'm just going to have to suck it and see. There isn't really any safe defensive points outside of Heater Shaw….

Paul

Actually no I'm not, I swapped him out already hahaha

mograt

thoughts on Pendles or Dangerfield?

Cozza

Danger is a lock. Pendles was also a lock for me, until yesterday! Second guessing myself now, but it was only 1 NAB Cup game – in 2nd gear and he is a proven premo over many years – I'm sticking with him.

Phil Tony's Cracken

Dont look into NAB when it comes to Pendesl! If you were the coach would you want your best player going all out in a meaningless game? No………He was just floating around getting a run of the field and game time. If you base Pendels score on NAB well you shouldnt be in SC because its all about rookies and guys who want to be part of the squad…… it not about taking your best player out there and killing them before the season starts!

Phil Tony's Cracken

Worried about Pendels….that's laughable!!! Don't take him!

hedeski

Both

@grayson_lowee

Both fantastic players, for me if i had to pick one i'd go with danger, up to you however.

Phil Tony's Cracken

Yeah ….you are basing that on his NAB challenge score tell you what the Hawks ill suffocate him in 2 weeks……wont score nearly as much in NAB. Hawks will shut him down and will be their primary goal as all teams will!!!

Phil Tony's Cracken

*Will

Phil Tony's Cracken

Danger has a target on his back and everyone will be following him!!!!

Cozza

Only as much as he did at Adelaide. Can't see that the move to Geelong will make that any better or worse. Selwood might release him a little, but Danger also had Thompson and Sloane at Adelaide, so I can;t see it making much difference. Dangerfield will be same old Dangerfield this year – just with different colours on.

Cozza

ST KILDA
Jack Steven 115
Leigh Montagna 103
Shane Savage 101
Jack Lonie 90
Jack Newnes 89
Jack Billings 87
Sam Gilbert 83
David Armitage 75
Sebastian Ross 75
Sam Fisher 75
Tom Hickey 74
Luke Dunstan 68
Maverick Weller 67
Dylan Roberton 64
Josh Bruce 63
Jarryn Geary 54
Jade Gresham 47
Nick Riewoldt 46
Jason Holmes 44
Jimmy Webster 44
Nathan Wright 37
Sean Dempster 26
Tim Membrey 24
Blake Acres 18

MELBOURNE
Max Gawn 111
Jeff Garlett 111
Jack Watts 99
Christian Salem 99
Tomas Bugg 97
Clayton Oliver 92
Jack Viney 89
Dean Kent 89
Bernie Vince 87
Dom Tyson 87
Ben Kennedy 85
Nathan Jones 85
Tom McDonald 84
Neville Jetta 70
James Harmes 67
Jesse Hogan 67
Jack Grimes 63
Colin Garland 56
Oscar McDonald 56
Cameron Pedersen 54
Sam Frost 36
Josh Wagner 24
Matt Jones 23
Viv Michie 0

@grayson_lowee

Hey guys, any thoughts on my team wouldd be great.

Def:
R.Laird, J.Macmillan/K.Kolodjashnij/Etc.(I NEED HELP HERE), J.Johannisen, J.Weitering, M.Brown, N.Broad. (M.Hartley, M.Adams)

Mid:
P.Dangerfield, G.Ablett, T.Rockliff, O.Wines, P.Cripps, T.Liberatore, C.Mills, C.Oliver. (C.Menadue, J.Gresham, R.Mathieson)

Ruck:
S.Martin, M.Gawn (C.Loersch [Loophole/DPP])

Fwd:
D.Zorko, M.Barlow, S.Gray, A.Hall, D.Wells, S.Kerridge. (A.Mcd-Tip, S.Grimley)

Pretty happy with my team so far but i need help with that D2 spot, any suggestions would be fantastic, thanks in advance.

Hawks

Yeah, good looking team.

If you can afford Simpson at D2, I'd go with him, alternately KK is a good selection.

Crusty

Where's Christian Petracca at? Has anyone heard if he has played through NAB 1, 2 or 3. Form ???? Will he play Round 1. ???

Chill

I'm going to take one of: Mills, Oliver or Parish. I'm concerned about Mills' job security. What does the community think?

Hawker

If NAB is anything to go by for Mills IMO lock him in.

DadSmasher

Thanks Jock, Nanna said to say hello.

I got nuthin from the saints this Nab except maybe taking a massive gamble on Hickey.
74 against 'Mad Max fury Ruck' isn't an embarrassment and his 86 against Daw showed that he can score, prob ave 75. If I can compensate for the 30pts I lose having him r2 by getting a Premo for D4 I'll do it.

Melbourne have thrown up so many options I might put $100 on em to make finals this year.
In addition to the cheapies on offer at the D's I'm toying with having Garlett F4. He's in the best form of his life, aved 103 across NAB and he's grown significantly in confidence under a genuine coach. six of his first 9 games are at the G where he does his best work and he has previously scrored 100plus against 8 of his first 9 opponents.
Viney has been in and out of my squad but I don't have confidence that he'll be let off the leash with an offensive role just yet.

Question for the community.
Why is Petracca in almost every team? I have him but not for a valid reason, I only have him because he's in every other team, he's cheap and DPP. I see nothing to suggest he should be honored with selection in my team surely there's a better option? The bloke has never played a game of adult footy and appears to get an impact injury if somebody so much as farts near him.

DadSmasher

Ok. So, a few have taken offence at the way I refer to a particular club in my comments. That's fine I understand how it feels to think that your club has been victimised by the AFL, dad tells a story of a Carlton player being derigistered for 6-weeks in the 90's because Sydney breached their salary cap! He reckons that was unjust, I reckon 'pfft as if any blow to Carlton could be unjustified.'

Anyway, I understand a supporters passion but, when you have family connections to a person who was used as a drug test guinea pig by their first employer and that employer virtually escapes penalty by sacrificing the careers of the employees that they violated you see things a little differently.

Jason mungean

Hi guys I'm posting my team to get some feed back thanks

Laird Houli johanisen plowman dea Collins (ruggles McDonald-tippy)
Danger pendles r gray Steven griffin libba boekhorst Oliver ( Davis Mathieson menadue)
Martin Gawn (grimley)
Winguard z Merrett hall Steele kerridge wells (McCarthy petracca)