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NAB ANALYSIS: Essendon v Geelong

Published by Patch on

Supercoach 2016 midpriced defendersLast week we were presented with The Essendon Saga, Season 4, Episode 1 – A New Hope.

This week took a different tack, with Season 4, Episode 2 – Essendon Getting their Teeth Thoroughly Kicked In. It was carnage.

Not only were the Dons not playing Carlton, we weren’t getting out traditional 2016 Fifty-Metre Penalties For No Reason but some dingus decided to drop the midfield. I would have stopped watching if I didn’t have this to write.

And this intro is being written at half time, too. We haven’t kicked a goal, and I’d bet Lek’s moustache on us not kicking one in the second half.  (Update – sorry Lek. It’s for a good cause.)

But, despite a near full strength Geelong side playing a B team of a B team, there was somehow fantasy relevance in this game. Not much, but still, I’ll take what I can out of that.

Absent Best 22:

Geelong – Joel Selwood, Mitch Clark, Scott Selwood, Daniel Menzel

Essendon – Brendan Goddard, Zach Merrett, David Zaharakis, Matthew Luenhaneneggenburger, Darcy Daniher, Darcy Parish, James Kelly, Matthew Stokes, James Gwilt, Jo Daniher’s moustache, the Essendon 12, Jock Reynolds, Matthew Lloyd, my dog, etc.

Essendon took a very conservative approach, resting their three biggest names in the midfield on a near-40 degree day in Shepparton. Quarters were shortened and breaks were extended, but Geelong still managed to kick three hundred goals.

Injuries

The big news from this game was on the injury front. While Shaun McKernan and Jayden Laverde both suffered ankle knocks, it was what looks like an ACL to Corey Enright mini-me Jackson Thurlow that was the big news.

Looming as a potential breakout player across the Cats’ half-back line, if it is as bad as first feared, it looks like Jimmy Bartel will be floating across the defensive line for the rest of the season. On top of that, Zac Smith showed he’s not quite over his niggled, finishing on the little ice left in Shepparton at FT.

GEELONG

Happier than a pig in mud. Holy moly did they saunter out loll around. Very much inflated individual performances but hot diggidy damn they look good.

Patrick Dangerfield.

Patrick Dangerfield erect

Enough said.

Also looming around the midfield, both Mitch Duncan (21 possies, 135 points) and Josh Caddy (15, 102) collected a lot of the pill, Caddy moving forward at times to end up with 2.1. Duncan looks ripe to break out, but I’ll struggle to run with him until I see him with a Selwood in the side, which won’t be until round 1.

Jimmy Bartel was running around all over the joint during the first half. He wasn’t doing much more than having a casual stroll, but the fact Chris Scott let him roam free was a good sign. However, after Thurlow went down, he spent a lot more time in the back half. 14 disposals, 11 uncontested. Only 61 points but he was blowing out the cobwebs.

The Twin Peaks of Rhys Stanley (74 points) and Zac Smith (105) again impressed, especially against an Essendon side as undersized as this one. Stanley took more of the ruckwork as the game went on, ending with 12 hitouts and 7 disposals, while Smith had 8 hitouts, 10 clearences, and 14 touches. Both ended with a goal apiece, but if you were in blue and white hoops you were guaranteed a goal anyway today.

Lincoln McCarthy has done enough to end up on my bench. He wasn’t overly influential today, but had stints in the middle and was lively enough up forward to suggest he will be a permanent part of this side. 6 touches, 4 tackles, 41 points. Expect more but it should come.

Naika Cockatoo continues to impress, but won’t end up in my side at 170-odd thousand dollarydoos. However, he and many of the Geelong forward line, will be very good CoachKings picks, with Tom Hawkins dominating and finishing with 2.3, 14 touches and 8 strong marks. Similarly, Nathan Vardy had 4 touches from 6 possessions.

Jake Kolodjashnij had 16 disposals at 100% DE, and floated around the half back line. 362k defender ended with 99 Supercoach points. I’ll pass but without Thurlow the question should be asked.

The rest of the Cats’ scores were overinflated due to playing an awful, awful side. If anything stood out to you that I’ve missed, hit me up in the comments!

ESSENDON

It wasn’t pretty. As I’ve got to get onto Collingwood vs North Melbourne, I’ll skip all the mid pricers bar one because they were all rubbish. If you were thinking of looking at Jonathan Simpkin, Craig Bird or Orazio Fantasia, yeah nah rub them off the list. 54, 38 and 55 points respectively.

Before we dig into the rookies, Adam Cooney was far and away Essendon’s best player, and looked every bit the Brownlow medallist amongst the Essendon boys. Classy, 15 disposals (10 in the first hald), but a CoachKings pick.

However, if you’re feeling both sneaky and lucky in Supercoach, Mark Baguely captained the side today and stood up. He ran up the ground, looked reasonably composed and tried his heart out. But he only ended up with 10 possies and 71 points, so the scores might not come. Pass.

Right, the meat. Matt Dea stood up without the first choice midfield and collected 12 disposals at 100% DE and 99 points. Watch next week to see his role. Nick Kommer didn’t impress me much, but had it 12 times and looked better than last week for 60. Mitch Brown should be locked, but spent time forward. Michael Hartley can also be safely picked in our backline after showing us 86 points.

Anthony McDonald-Tipunwuti needs another week but looked very good for 80 points. Only concern there is gametime, and I was impressed with Will Hams who had it 13 times in the guts for only 64 points. Connor McKenna had huge runs through the middle and will play nearly every week. He ended with 54, and doesn’t look to score more than that. Both Hams and McKenna are 180-something thousand forward rookies.

Kyle Langford also ran through the guts and really, really impressed me. At 180k FWD moved into serious consideration for me. Started in the middle often and had 11 touches and 6 tackles for 60 points, and will improve with composure around him. However, Sam Grimely had nothing delivered well to him and kicked one solitary goal for 30 Supercoach points. He will have these shockers. We need to be ready for them.

Right. I’m sure I’ve missed something, but onwards to Wagga Wagga!

 

 

 


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SC_Beast

GEELONG

Patrick Dangerfield 151

Mitch Duncan 135

Tom Hawkins 133

Cameron Guthrie 110

Mark Blicavs 107

Zac Smith 105

Josh Caddy 102

Jake Kolodjashnij 99

Lachie Henderson 88

Corey Enright 85

Tom Ruggles 77

Darcy Lang 77

Rhys Stanley 74

Nathan Vardy 73

Harry Taylor 72

Shane Kersten 61

Jimmy Bartel 61

Steven Motlop 59

Nakia Cockatoo 55

Josh Cowan 51

Cory Gregson 51

Jordan Murdoch 44

Jackson Thurlow 44

Lincoln McCarthy 41

George Horlin-Smith 38

Tom Lonergan 12

ESSENDON

Matt Dea 99

Michael Hartley 86

Adam Cooney 81

Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 80

Martin Gleeson 74

Mark Baguley 71

Will Hams 64

Nick Kommer 60

Kyle Langford 60

Orazio Fantasia 55

Conor McKenna 54

Jonathan Simpkin 54

Courtenay Dempsey 53

Jake Long 48

Mitch Brown 46

Jackson Merrett 44

Jayden Laverde 43

Craig Bird 38

Sam Grimley 30

Alex Morgan 29

Patrick Ambrose 25

Shaun McKernan 24

Mark Jamar 23

Jason Ashby 20

Sam Michael 19

Shaun Edwards 12

Patch

Legend, Beast. Thanks mate

SC_Beast

No worries Patch mate!

Ren

Dea V Weitering?

Phil

Weitering. Sure Dea went well today but I think his score is a little misleading as he only had 12 possessions but all scores were inflated due to shortened quarters. Essendon were missing a lot of players as well (not counting the 12).
I guess you could say the same about Weitering last week (with Carlton missing players) but I just think on talent alone, he will play and score decent enough.

Patch

Weitering at this stage Ren.

SC_Beast

Danger is a lock. Watch Hartley, could gain a position on my bench come start of the season. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 80 is very good for a 102k rookie – and DPP! Hopefully he gets elevated. That's back to back tons for Zac Smith, I'll watch him very closely.

JJB

Ess can elevate 2 rookies – they have 10 top-ups & 2 rookie elevation available. ( 12 gone for the year)
The rookies are: Hams, Long, McD-Tip, Nyuoh, Wallis & their Cat B International rookie McKenna
Hams – been their for years – has not shown that much – Main list & rookie list
Long – Raw, quick, 2nd year on rookie list – maybe
McD-Tip – exiting, quick, good foot skills – Lock for upgrade – IMO
Nyuoh – 88Kg 200cm ruck – needs 1 to 2 years
Wallis – Unsure Unsighted – 1st year rookie

JJB

So – 2 rookie spots between – Hams, McKenna, Long & McD-Tip – IMO

Unsure when Ess have to decide – I assume before Rd 1

bb

What's Duncan's SC price? And would he be a decent POD?

Kev

493k. If I pick him it will be as a keeper, not sure he's a top 10 midfielder

Paul

I wouldn't rule it out. Class player, accumulator, goal kicker. Could be "Daisy Thomas 2010" in that midfield.

@randomcliche

so don't pick him ever after this year?

Leeds17

Great chance to break out, Selwood return wont hurt his scores.

Saundo

Danger or Fyfe? I can't afford both

Kev

Fyfe.

THE GB

Here is my team, I would love to know what the community thinks of it. I understand my rucks are weak, but I am hoping that the scoring potential on the other lines will outweigh that. Any improvements? Would it be smart to downgrade and save some cash on the other lines and upgrade one or both of my big men? And is there any must-haves that I have missed in any position?

D:Shaw, Simpson, McGovern, BSmith, Weitering, Hartley (BrownEss, KCollins)
M:Fyfe, Dangerfield, Ablett, Priddis, Liberatore, De Goey, Mills, Parish (Gore, Gresham, Mathieson)
R: CSinclair, Lobbe (Cox)
F: Dusty, Barlow, Greene, AHall, BKennedy, Kerridge (Petracca, Grimely)

Thank you in advance
Cheers

Saundo

Pooh sorry but being honest don't like Simpson or de goey and rucks are weak

Saundo

That was meant to be oooohhhh sorry, imo you need to downgrade a few midpricers that will enable you to upgrade your rucks or even get another premo mid or forward, I think back line is ok but Simpson has burnt me in the past to inconsistent

Samboy

Goldy & Gawn for me.. cant go wrong… lock and leave.

Kev

With weak rucks you really need more firepower in the middle

Patch

Not a fan of Simpson or Greene, but the rest looks okay. I'd put De Goey forward though,

neil

lmo 3 high priced rooky mids too many .I wouldhave aparker or cripps type

LuskinStar

I admire the fact that you are taking a risk with your rucks. Taking risks is the only way to go with Supercoach. Problem is you have not wound up with enough over 500k players to balance that risk. You somehow need to get more of these in.

LuskinStar

Good on ya for taking a risk with the rucks. You will get about 30-40 points less out of that line than most people but as you say you only need to find 15 extra points than most on each of the other lines and you are ahead. If you think you have found those points then stick to your guns.

daddyotoole

Thoughts on Ruggles @102k? Reckon he will get much of a run? especially now that Thurlow is gone

SC_Beast

He is rookie listed

JUDDYR

Impressive, cool, calm and collected.. should get the nod with thurlow likely on the long term list IMO

HOLLA

Drysdale boy! Can use the ball will probably still have to prove his case in the vfl. May get an opportunity later in the year.

abel

Nice work P. What's all this about edwards opting for manual fan directioning instead of taking the field?

Samboy

Is Bartel a lock in your side Patch

magpie4ver

Nice write up Patch! This game was difficult to watch.

Japattt

No Crowley as well patch!

Ben

Here is my teams lads!

Back Line: Heath Shaw, Rory Laird, Kade Kolodjashnij, Mitch Brown, Michael Hartley, Darcy Tucker (Kieran Collins & Anthony Mcdonald – Tipungwuti)

Midfield: Nat Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Pendlebury, Garry Ablett, Tom Rockliff, Tom Liberatore, Jade Gresham, Rhys Mathieson (Dean Gore, David Cuningham & Mitchell Hibberd)

Ruckman: Todd Goldstein & Max Gawn (Darrean Wyatt)

Forward Line: Dustin Martin, Dayne Zorko, Michael Barlow, Daniel Wells, Sam Kerridge, Christian Petracca (Nick Kommer & Mason Cox)

Advice please!!!

Saundo

Great team, really can't fault it, just comes down to how you like to play the game, personally I like to go for POD and a few risky picks to make it interesting

Ben

Thanks Mate!

Adam

Anybody see Dea as an option? he is in my team and will get games like all essendon players

paul

200k though…i'm going other essendom backs instead

Patch

Need to see him with the others in the mix, but he's firming as an option.

Que

A Hall, Crouch and Currie

or

Stefan Martin, Menadue, Gresham

Patch

If the first one leaves you with Currie onfield, the second option

Vinny

Right now who are people using as their F8, Kommer, O'Brien??

magpie4ver

Mcd-tip

Grumpy

scroll up Vinny and/or look at any other article from the past month, you'll get a lot more answers

mannny

642k to spend, 1 mid and 1 def spot to fill. Thinking of going a rookie defender and spending the rest on a mid (Cripps/Wines are the most I would be able to spend). Any thoughts or ideas on which combo to get?

Paul

Who's already in the mid atm? Mitch Duncan if you don't already have him. Maybe Zach Merrett or for a POD, Bryce Gibbs is under priced.

magpie4ver

Whats the rest of ur team look like?

Paul

Surprised by the amount of people with K Collins on the bench at the moment. I know people are probably just putting in a name there that they heard over the post/pre season, but isn't he a reasonably old fashioned stopping tall defender? Even if he gets games, he's not scoring a heap of points with his 5 handballs per game to Rob Murphy, Johannisen, Boyd, etc is he?

SC_Beast

He got 72 in his first nab game. A bit better than 5 handballs

Grumpy

only 5 SC points in the 2nd game Beast gives him an ave of 33.5 which is approximately equal to 5 handballs

james

which team is better and why community

boyd, laird, macmillan, lonegan, hartley, collins (brown, lee)
dangerfield, ablett, priddis, rockliff, duncan, libba, parish, matheson (clarke, adamson, macpherson)
nic nat, gawn
zorko, barlow, greene, hall, milera, kerridge (petracca, tipungwuti)

or

lairrd, macmillan, mcgovern, harwood, hartley, collins (hibbered, tipungwuti)
fyfe, dangerfield, pendles, ablett, priddis, rockliff, libba, clarke (matheson,adamson, macpherson)
jacobs, gawn
barlow, green, hall, milera, kerridge, brown (ess) (petracca, mccarthy)

Patch

I'd go the second one, but not sure on Harwood or Greene. Can you turn Harwood into a Tucker and then Greene into a Dusty or a Zorko?

Votes

Thoughts on my team lads? Cheers Def- Laird, docherty, Johanison, T.Sherridan, M Brown, M Hartley ( k. Collins, D. Byrne- Jones) Mid- Fyfe, Danger, Ablett, Rockliff, M.Duncan, Libba, Mills Jansen ( Matheson , Cunninham, Clarke) Ruck- Jacobs, Nicmac (M.Cox). Forwards- D.Martin, C. Wingard M. Barlow, J. Degoey, C. menadu, L.Mccarthy ( Pettracaa, Kerridge)

Jiff

Team almost complete, have just two spots to fill and $940,000 to spend. One midfield, one defence. I already have Duncan, liked his performance today. Thoughts?

Paul

Who are your defenders and midfielders at the moment? It's pretty hard to recommend people if we don't know who you already have…

Liam

I would go Weitering and Fyfe.
But it depnds on structure and who you have already.

Jono

Andrew Mackie also out aswell

Patch

Ah he was too, thanks Jono.

BigHaydos

One thing stands out in all of my structures I have constructed and its the overwhelming amount of money spent if you invest in Fyfe, Dangerfield and Goldstein. On the flip side, its not easy getting them in the team, having to cull 2-3 cash cows just to get each one of them which burns up alot of trades.

Having a stepping stone player in your team to get that third big price tag seems the way to go but who to pick as the stepping stone and who to choose out of the 3 big names……

Grumpy

Are you just talking to yourself big fella or do you need advice on stepping stones?

Derek

To reach a full premier team you need to have team value $14mil.

Make cash! That is what you need to do. Step two is to buy the premiums at cheaper price than their starting price.

My ideal midfield is Fyfe, Ablett, Dangerfield, JPK, priddis, Selwood, Pendlebury, rocky.

Ablett, rocky and Selwood I see as good value, however Selwood is not 100%. The others are all fully priced, maybe priddis and danger is overpriced.

My structure is to start with 5 and buy the other 3 later, hopefully cheaper.

Forget about stepping stones, just make cash so you can buy the premiums as they fall.

This is same for all lines.

'Don't Blush Babbie'

Copy that Derek, Head over Heart and be disciplined with your structures

@randomcliche

Can't fault the logic and it certainly forms part of my base case. Except that if you can pick a mid pricer who outperforms it gives you $$$ to get full premo faster. This is why 90% of teams will have Libba. If you knew with certainty of others, they would be in as well….this is where is won and lost IMO (after nailing $rookies). I'll be looking to run up to 8 midpricers.

TRIGGER HAPPY

This i feel is more representative of where these two teams sit. Think dons had a fake dawn last week. Danger lockety, lock, lock, beware of the mid priced and big $ bombers but look for value in the rooks. Duncan could also be in for a big year.

Slats

Thought Simpkin & Bird would of shown a bit more with more midfield time, currently have Simpkin at F4 but not sure if his worthy of a position at this point, thoughts community?

Ben

i would rather wells or anderson

Warren

Definitely scratch Fantazia ?

Terry

Whats your thoughts on stokes. Pod forward