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The Daily Fantasy Verdict – Sam Docherty

Published by Patch on

Docherty

Breaking in to break-out territory.

He’s 22. This is his fourth season. He’s coming into his own across Carlton’s backline. Is this Sam Docherty’s year to go 95+?

Lekdog loves his oldies. Bob Murphy, Corey Enright, his marvellous look at Nick Reiwoldt yesterday. I go the other way. I love watching the young blokes frolic amongst the meadows, finding their feet. One such lamb is Sam Docherty.

He spent much of last year skipping his way through the centre of the MCG, on a Friday night, running out of Carlton’s backline, delivering the pill forward. He took the rebounding role by the horns and ran with it.

This kid will be a player. But will this year be the year he thrusts himself into the spotlight?

2016 Prices: $473K SC, $417K AF, $8.1K CoachKings
2016 Position: DEF
Games last season: 19
Average last season: 87.7 SC, 82.2 AF,  100.9 CK
100+ SC Games last season: 3
Sub 80 SC games last season: 5
SCPrice range last season: $411K – $442K
Missed games last season: 2

I’ll admit, that table doesn’t look brilliant. 8 scores above 90 in 19 games means he hit 90 in just over a third of the time he ran onto the park.

However, he only had 3 scores below 75, which means he was scored between 75 and 100 13 times. That smells like consistency, and consistency is something I can get behind, provided it’s not Zac Dawson-like consistency.

Consistency is something you like to rely on when picking a daily side for Coach Kings. You build your sides around those guaranteed 90 scores, and take a punt on Buddy Franklin kicking 29 sausage rolls and laying 396 tackles to score three billion points.

We will have to find more information about Coach Kings’ scoring system before we can go in depth on if Docherty is suited to the short form of the game, and will have any consistency. As someone who plays as a running midfielder from the backline, he might be overlooked for someone like Tom Lynch from the Gold Coast, who would have been the 20th best player.



In the longer form, he’s under 500K, which fits half the criteria for a defender – beyond that price you’re generally paying overs for someone likely to average 95 at most.

However, he is amongst a group that contains Laird, Bartel, Thumper Kolodjashnij, Bob Murphy and Kade Simpson. Elliot Yeo, Brodie Smith, Heath Shaw and Jarrad McVeigh are also available in the backline, and there are a few sneaky midpricers floating about the 300K mark.

This is significant competition, and defenders are notoriously fickle. Why not go for the experience of old Bob Murphy, the dash of Brodie Smith, the class of Bartel?

Good question. Guts speak in strange tongues, and at the moment, all we are going off is gut and list changes.

So, why have I got him my side at the moment?

The case for:

  • He’s young and is in prime break-out territory
  • Playing for a struggling side, so he will get plenty of opportunity to run the ball out of defence
  • Will be prioritised over the few remaining old blokes at Carlton – Sam Docherty will be taking kick-ins during Carlton’s next final, not Kade Simpson
  • Good disposal efficiency and metres gained, both good stats to be strong in for both Supercoach and Coach Kings
  • My gut told me to pick him

The case against:

  • He goes missing – this may ruin a night in Coach Kings, and lose you clumps of hair over the length of the season
  • Carlton will struggle this year. While there is less than a point’s difference between his averages in wins and in losses, Carlton consistently losing will dent his potential output.
  • Can he handle a defensive tag? He hasn’t truly been tested yet

The Verdict:

Docherty will be a week by week proposition in CoachKings – although you will notice in the table above that we can expect him to score more heavily in CoachKings than on other formats. In free flowing games on larger ovals, Docherty has shown he has a huge ceiling. Don’t forget about him when Carlton are due at your local!

I doubt Sam Docherty will be in my side come round one. There is too much in the backline that presents serious value or serious point scoring potential, and Docherty is neither of those things.

At this stage I feel safe calling that he will increase his average from last year, possibly even to 92 or 94, but I can’t see him in the top six defenders for the year. Monitor.

Over to you community – anyone considering him this season?




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OldOcker

Great article mate,
There is some serious value in the back-line this year and he is not in my team at this stage but he will certainly remain on my Watch List.

Cheers

Patch

Cheers, Ock!

Stirlsy

Looked at the Doc but passed him over for a cheaper option that has an 87avg and has games over the 100.
I don't see him making my team at all this year, maybe a future pick in years to come.

Cam

He’s heading in the right direction but you can probably do better for the cash with other up-and-coming players or the familiar old faces.

With all the talk around the value picks – be it Smith, Yeo, KK, Rich, etc – and the older guys like Shaw, Bartel and McVeigh, who does everyone think the top ten defenders will be this year? Are you happy to pick keepers who may not make that list?

Patch

I think anyone looking to pick keepers not in the top 10 doesn't quite have their head in the game – I'm not sure Docherty will be top 10, so I'm avoiding him. Risks in the backline are like risks in the ruck, nowhere to go when they stuff up!

I'm looking at Thumper Kolojashnij, Brodie Smith and Jimmy Bartel to start in my backline, with possibly one other such as Seedsman depending on structure. Who are you looking at mate?

Cam

It's a constantly evolving beast at this stage but basically the same; KK is locked and Bartel and Smith have been in most permutations. Depends on the forward line structure too. If Leuy is at F5 then those three are my only keepers, but if Leuy is at F4 then I'm maybe looking at Yeo or possibly a punt on Rich or similar.

mick

shaw mcdonald kk brown smith rookies x3

Patch

Nice Mick! Got burned by McDonald last year so he's on my never again list. Shaw is too pricey for me but will be the #1 defender anyway.

Tom

Will Beams' output be hindered with rocky back? And is it bad to go in with both of them?

Patch

I don't reckon so mate. They played very few games together last year but I can't imagine they'll be pinching too much off each other. I like the sound of going in with Beams but don't have the coin. I reckon you'll be right at this stage.

ThatDamnRascal

While Simpson is still around I think he'll take too many points from Doc. Depending on the year though he could be a good trade up target. Then again if he gets some midfield time in the NAB he could find himself being rushed into a few teams

sniffles the cat

Had Docherty last year and will need a year away from him, last half of the year was frustrating.
Two defenders that I'm looking at are A. Otten and J. Cowen
Both ~$150K…anybody care to argue against their selections into my team?
cheers community…

Kev

Start the discussion sniffles. I haven’t considered either so far. Are you leaning towards one over the other?

Patch

I've had quite a gander at Cowen so far this year, but need to see them both play before I can touch either – both are made of glass and don't have huge point potential. Otten is off the list with the number of running defenders the Crows have – Smith, Jaensch, Laird and Seedsman will score the points there – but Cowen is high on my radar.

Grahame Lebroy

Really like his chances of breaking out this year. The negatives as patch said above he is priced in a group with many valid other options and if your spending that much cash in the backline u want that player to be a top 10 defender. But I think the top 10 Defenders this year is not clear yet so many picks for D2 – D4 will carry similar risks. On my watchlist at this stage

Patch

It's not easy to pick, and you can't always jump onboard – look at Tom McDonald last year. Needs more watching, that's for sure.

CarlaShirley

Only 2 Carlton players who will be worth the coin is Gibbs and Cripps.

Want to know what people think of Mat Rosa from West Coast playing for Gold Coast now. Reckon he will play rebounding defender or on the wing? Maybe even midfield time? Looks like one under the radar, interesting times

Kev

I’ve been strongly considering him, Carla. I reckon he’ll play on the wing. Thumper was rubbish up the ground and Rosa will allow him to move back. That’s what I think anyway, nab cup will hopefully give us some clues

Ethan

sam kerridge should be another consideration for a carlton player

Patch

I'm not going near Rosa, Carla. Hasn't played more than 14 games since 2012, when he averaged 89 as his best year. If he is making the right noises in the NAB then I'll look at him, but I think KK and Malceski will play the rebounding roles. Have a feeling he might tag, which he has done before.

SCaddict

Too much risk for too little reward. Classic midprice trap like Yarran for mine.

If he was $100k cheaper then yes sign me up but for $420K I'll pass thanks.

Kev

Not a lot of value to be gained from picking Doch this year. As a potential breakout player you’d want a much lower starting price. For the reasons you’ve identified, few of the guys at a similar price carry less risk.

Love your work, Patch

Patch

Thanks Kev, love seeing you in the comments mate. Who are you looking at?

Kev

Straight guns n rookies, Patch. Shaw, KK, Bartel, and either Yeo or McG + rookies. Tried the midprice madness structure last year and it backfired spectacularly

Patch

Nice mate. KK and Bartel are pretty much locked away at this point. Keen to see the rookies emerge so we know how many premos we need. Not mucking around back there; it's premos or bust unless Seedsman sets the NAB cup on fire.

CarlaShirley

McVeigh and Bartel scare me too much teeth are dragging on the turf

bill

need help pick 2 rucks out of Jacobs ,sandi, nic nat, blicavs, mummy, gawn,

Patch

I'm trying to keep Maxy Gawn under my hat, but he's a good selection – just don't tell anyone else. Mummy is the one on that list who excites me the most but you'll need a swingman if you run with him, and Sinclair is the only swingman I'd be touching. Jacobs otherwise is extremely solid and won't let you down.

Mike

Not Leuy? The price is right. Sinclair has to share with Tippet and he was bloody good in the second half of last year in the ruck. Be interesting to see how the Swans divy up the work with those two.

Hazey

Could Sinclair + Tippett to average 200pts between them each week? the s it worth having both?

Possible but not probable, right?

Would require stones of mammoth proportion!!!

Patch

Luey could average 100 if he wasn't made of glass. At this stage I've borrowed General's 10ft barge pole on him. Can't see them both averaging a huge amount; and looking at Sinclair's SC history on Old Ocker's cheat sheet doesn't fill me with confidence. The last swingman I had was Dean Cox, which shows how little I like using them.

TRIGGER HAPPY

Ah the doh. Nice write up patch. The Blues back line will see more ball than a speedo shop this year but how that works is anyone’s guess with the mass exodus and new faces this year. Will they take points off each other? Only the nab cup may give some clues. A watch for me as I rate doh but chances of making the final cut slim unless goes off in the nab cup.

Here’s a question..

What combo do u think is better?

JPK, b crouch and nic nat

Or

Danger, hopper and S Martin?

Let the debate begin.

Derek

i have two of option 1 in my team, and none of option 2.

Patch

I'm on team #2 Trigger, S Martin is a beast and will benefit from ruck rules and a lack of Luenhamandeggenburger. Danger will trump JKP and Hopper – assuming he plays – should treat you well from what I've heard.

Derek

Finally, Zac Dawson gets a mention in an article!

james

is it worth getting kurt fwd and ruck backup

Ethan

maybe as a after bye pick up so he becomes your f6/f7 but to start with him would be a high risk, high reward scenario. Great pod if you do. Leuy is like 150 k cheaper and forfills the same role

Patch

Not for me – I can't see too much changing from last year. Sinclair is absolutely worth a look though.

SCaddict

Yes Sinclair presents better value I reckon.

Of course as a Swans man I'm hoping that Tippo tears the comp a new one but he's not part of my Supercoach plans for 2016, at least right now.

Mike

As a Swans man I’m tempted to go with Buddy this year. Can you talk me out of it?

Patch

I've had a gander at Sinclair's history on Old Ocker's cheat sheet – it's giving me second thoughts. I know he's played under Cox, Nic Nat and Lycett, but I need to see big positives in the NAB to think about him.

Stirlsy

Yeah I like Sinclair, think he will get 70 to 75% of ruck and he can play forward when resting…
Leuy has problems already with his achillies id be wary of that.

Dasha

lovely write up as always patch,
yeo or rich? what do we reckon community

SCaddict

I'm pretty huge on the Yeoster and there's a strong chance he'll make my starting defence at D3ish.

Unfortunately Rich is on my "never again" list after some frustrating ownership experiences in the past so I just can't go back to that particular well myself. Maybe others can talk him up.

Patch

I'm not sure on either, to be honest. Yeo if I had to pick one of them, but I think Redden and Jetta might detract from his point scoring ability. Either that or it pushes him onto a wing? I really don't know at this stage, but Rich isn't filling me with confidence.

Gaveday

No mention of Plowman?

Patch

I'd forgotten about him! I have no idea how he fits into the Blues, though, so I don't know what his impact will be. Do you reckon he'll run off half-back?

Top Hawk

What does the community think of the prospects of Jack Hombsch in the Port Adelaide back line this season? He could be another guy who could step up for a break out season. He played all 22 games last season with a SC average of 72.2 per game. Could he hit 90+ this season? At $389K, definately worth keeping an eye on.

Duffer

Would only look at hombsch if Pittard/Broadbent get injured. At the moment hes a 3rd running defender who is required to defend as well, wouldn’t expect him to score high enough to keep unless his role changes.

Bailey

Dane rampe community??

Top Hawk

Dane Rampe is a very interesting proposition. At 457K he is not expensive but no bargain either. Last year he averaged 84 SC per game. Not bad. Could well explode to average 100+ this season. I would watch him during NAB cup before making any decision on him.

Swans2012

Agree with hawk on the watch list, just needs to take that next step…

Mac

Thoughts on my team:

Shaw, KK, Bartel, Yeo, Francis, Hipwood, Bonner, Skinner
Ablett, Pendles, Gray, Rockliff, Libba, O'Meara, Parish, Hopper, Gresham, Keays, Mathieson
Goldstein, Lobbe, Wyatt
Martin, Dahlhaus, Barlow, Petracca, Kerridge, Kennedy, Sumner, Brown

LuskinStar

Francis is a lot of coin for a rookie defender. Will need to average about 80 for tne first 8 rounds to make you about 150000. Big ask. You also have Parish and Hopper so are spending about 600000 on 3 rookies.

Gaveday

Get rid of bonner,he won’t play early

Stirlsy

Yep I agree 3 high priced rookies is 2 too many, I started out with 3, weeks ago then 2 and back to 1 now none… I think Gresham will be the cow to have early.

bill

thoughts on my team community

def- simpson, murphy, bartel, brown, hartley, collins
mid- danger, pendles, ablett, priddis, kennedy, rockliff, jansen, cuningham
ruck- jacobs, gawn
fwd- lids, zorko, buddy, petracca, kerridge,buzza

HOLLA

Buzza? Surely not.

Eric_the_Red

Buzz would be lucky to see an AFL game this year. Far from ready.

Haiku Bob

Wells or Anderson.

What say you Community?

Stirlsy

Wells if he can stay on the ground it's a bloody big IF tho HB, and Anderson is a bit injury prone himself.
Both on NAB watch but I wouldn't expect to see to much of Wells probably only play him a Qtr here and a Qtr there early on and a half to 3 Qtrs in the last game they play.

Phil

The most anticipated review of the year Patch (after Jock let it slip a few days ago) and you've delivered a ripper!
The first thing I think I've when contemplating selecting a not quite premium player is where is the improvement going to come from? He's a young player so there should be natural improvement but that's not enough it's his club and teammates I look at.

Carlton would either have to win more games this year than last (don't think it will be happen) or Simpsons average would have to drop. If neither of these things happen I can see Doc being not quite there again.

Patch

Thanks mate! Ripper analysis there – I couldn't agree more. I reckon he'll crack 92 or so but that's not enough improvement for me. Who are you looking at?

Phil

Boyd is the only one I'll pay over 500k for as I think he'll start strong. Very confident on Bartel and Yeo the rest are a wait and see

Mikey

What's everyone's thoughts on Birchall? Solid performer, excellent disposal.

Scott

Elite disposal, gets plenty of it, reasonable price. I like him

Derek

He is part of the hawks defence, known for sharing the points around. Too many other to get the SC points.

Keep eye on lit hedland. I can see him being in best 22 and scoring very well. Thumping kick

Derek

Litherland

Bg G

I like Birchall a lot as a D3 option. He never goes big, but he is such a safe bet (pending injuries) to give you 80-95 week in and week out and average 85-90 over the whole year, which I am confident he can repeat this year with suckling gone.

vin

Everyone is talking bout kk, yeo, doc but i reckon langdon is going to be the pick of the bunch.

HOLLA

I like langdon too. But not sure if he can raise the bar on last year. Anything to suggest he can?

Stirlsy

Started with him last year, was a stepping stone to get Rance, and he did finish the season off well.
Could be a smoky in the large pack of defenders.

Tom

Whats the hype about Yeo? Had a great season last year and will probably improve again but his supercoach scores arent great. Very up and down

Mac

Bit like Newnes last year, everyone is backing him in to improve.

Al

Newness averaged 99 SuperCoach points in the last 12 games of last season. Could he improve?

Stirlsy

He had to play back last year expect him to get some mid time this year with WC tall backs coming back into the team, freeing Yeo up to run.

HOLLA

Doc is locked and loaded in my side. Was gonna jump on him last year and he looked the goods only to fall short. I think he can be a top ten defender this year.

Steeeve

Think how much juice would be hitting the walls if malceski was priced under $400k this time last year. Anyone taking the risk and hoping he can turn it around in a much improved side?

Stirlsy

He was inj last year right from the start and was never really right… I expect him to go well is having a great preseason from what iv read so im going with him and 2 others over 30, my backline will sink or swim on the back of the old timers.

hedski

Stoked t see the community back checked a coupla days ago hoping, been bingin since.
Thanks for the invite pitch72 (supercoach glory)
righto version 22

Heater Gibbo KK (Skinner)
Smith Brown (ess) Bonner (S.Collins)

Danger Gaz Rocky (Jansen)
Parker Libba Crouching (Francis)
Anderson Hopper (Sumner)

Stef Lobbe (Wyatt)

Choppies Dahl Bird (Petracca)
Toby G. Simpkin Kerridge (Redman)

Usual rookie carnage and last minute changes.
Feedback appreciated cheers.

Bob

Anyone like Wellingham?

Stirlsy

Only if they use him as the link coming out of def but that's not really WC gameplan. The Pies used him like that abit but WC never really have. Had a great finals campaign.

Bailey White

Jamie macmillan

Hazey

Under consideration atm. I’m wondering if North have space for McDonald this year. He has admitted his attitude was pretty poor last year and he just expected it to happen.

Big balls

Thoughts on david armitage in midfield as a pod ????

bcd

great article! I have him in my team at the moment. Another interesting player I am considering is tom Langdon I think he will be the next Corey Enright if not better, what are your thoughts on tommy?

Patch

Next Corey Enright is a big call BCD! There's no doubt he has the potential, my main concern is named James Aish – will he take the running role Langdon made his own? On top of that, will Treloar's arrival push someone back? What's the go with Adam Oxley? There are a lot of questions about the roles in the Collingwood side and I need them answered before I pick him, especially for 460K.

That said, if the natural progression from last year kicks into groove, he should become more consistent and improve his ceiling. However, I don't think he'll be top 10. Bloody good one to chew over, though! Keep an eye on him!

CarlaShirley

You know I just had a thought like lightning hitting my shell like canuim. We as a community need to encourage going against the grain with our starting teams. Think over the last 3 years our community has been too same same
Count on me to pick the wrong POD's lol

2013 rank top 7000
2014 rank top 600
2015 rank top 11000
2016 ?

Derek

i think last year we all got the rookies pretty spot on, i'll be going with the community when it comes to the rookies

The Ranger

Spot on Derek, the Community has been great for helping to get the rookies right, it's the POD's and mid-price gambles that always ruin me.
At the same time I know for sure that where there's muck there's brass.
If only I could find it…

TRIGGER HAPPY

I’m with ya. Gone pod happy this year.

Youngy

Great right up Patch!, what are your thoughts on Aish

Patch

Thanks Youngy! Far too many questions around his role and gametime to consider him as part of my structures at this point in time. I'm not a fan of more than one midpricer in the backline and at this stage Seedsman is getting the nod.

However, I'll be watching him during the NAB cup!

'Don't Blush Babby'

I'm tossing up between Montagna or Barlow ? or neither ? Thoughts anyone

Patch

Dunno blush, neither of them really do it for me. I love Joey, but he's overpriced by a long way, and I don't think he can keep last year's form up for a full season. Barlow is more gut than anything, but I feel I'll end up starting either him or Dusty.

Derek

I think Barlow is reasonable value, however i also have Fyfe in my team, so i probably won't go with both. I'm thinking a forward line of Dusty, Wingard, Rioli and Buddy should keep life interesting.

if you don't have fyfe, Barlow might be a good option

vin

It is perfectly fine to start 2 premiums from a team likely to finish top 4.

wombatsfc

Nice work mate, Docherty got me into the top 100 in 2014 with some great games towards the end but I don't think that he's a reasonable option as a starter when his team has a new Coach, game plan and personnel.
Does Wietering being able to hit a moving target from 65mtrs with both feet and a fit Jammo herald a reduction in possessions for running bouncing half backs from carlton? Could be why they gave Yarran away.
Will wright get the tag role and allow Curnow to play the role that Doch previously had?

Too many questions to consider him a lock at this stage.

LEKD0G

I like the boy