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The Daily Fantasy Verdict – Tom Rockliff

Published by Barron Von Crow on

Suercoach 2016 Tom Rockliff

Tom Rockliff was the perfect example of why even ultra-premium players aren’t season long locks in Supercoach.

It took about 3 quarters of football in Round 1 before Rocky was hammered and suffered broken ribs, an injury that hit his season and caused him to miss time all the way until Round 14.

It was a tale of two halves for Tom Rockliff in 2015. The nightmarish first half of the 2015 season, in which he missed 6 games with the aforementioned rib injury and averaged 77 Supercoach Points, and the dreamy 2nd half of 2015, where he went bananas. Especially over his last 6 games which saw him average a very lazy 136 SCPoints.

But even with his elite play over the last 2 years, Rockliff hasn’t always been the greatest Supercoach player. He’s had one fantastic year where he became an ultra premium (2014 when he averaged 132), but 5 other seasons he’s averaged between 85 and 113 SCPoints. So the question is, can Tom Rockliff get back to ultra-premium status in 2016, or is he destined to be a step below that and join the long list of players below God (Gary Ablett) tier?

2016 Prices: $550K SC, $579K AF, 7.2K CoachKings
2016 Position: MID
Games last season: 16
Average last season: Average Last Season: 102 SC, 105 AF, 90 CK
100+ SC Games last season: 10 (including 7 games of 120+ and a high of 152)
Sub 80 SC games last season: 4 (2 due to being subbed out because of injuries)
SCPrice range last season: 496K-709K
Missed games last season: 6


The case for:

  • Contested possessions + clearances + tackles = Supercoach Success – 3 of the bigger point scoring areas in Supercoach just happen to be 3 of the areas that Rockliff dominates in. Rocky led the AFL in tackles per game last year, averaging 8 a game and at the height of his powers in 2014 he led the AFL in tackles per game again, as well as averaging the most disposals, ranking 3rd in kicks per game, 4th in handballs per game, 9th in clearances per game, 6th in contested possessions per game and 1st in effective disposals per game.
  • BIG scoring potential – Rocky is a Captain candidate every week, he’s more than capable of going large, with a recorded career high of 182 SCPoints. Along with Gary Ablett and Todd Goldstein, he’s probably one of the best Captain picks in SC. He can go large and he does it frequently
  • Price – Ultra premium potential for about 150K less than you’d normally pay. Bargains like that don’t come around every week and while most people in his price range will likely stay in the same category, Rockliff is one of the few who could easily jump up another category.

The case against:

  • Limited rotations – Unknown if this will hit at this stage, but with a limited amount of rotations available to teams in 2016, is it possible we see the return of the Crazy Vossy favourite, where Rockliff is parked down at FF for long spurts? The Lions still don’t have the greatest forward line, so his presence down there would be a boost and it happened to him in 2013, a move which saw his SC output “limited” to 110 SCPoints for the year. Still good, but we’re picking Rocky on the hopes that he becomes the ultra-premium player we know he can be. Less time in the middle means less stats for Rocky, a move which will hurt his scoring potential.
  • Too much heavy lifting? – Rocky is certainly capable of the big scores, but he’s often done it when the Lions are down a player or two. Last year, he went on his big run once Dayne Beams (and Jack Redden for parts) were missing. In 2014 he went really big in the 2nd half of the season when Jack Redden and Daniel Rich were out. So if the Lions stay healthy and all of Beams, Zorko, Robinson, Hanley, Rich and new recruit Tom Bell are out there on the ground, will that prevent Rockliff from knocking out the really big scores? No one doubts his ability, but there’s more than a few good players in the Lions midfield group if they’re all healthy. Still, even if that knocked off 10 SCPoints from his average, I think we’d all be happy with a guy that averages 120 SCPoints a game.

The Verdict

  • CoachKings – this is interesting. We are looking at a very different scoring system in CoachKings, providing a more even spread of scoring across across the board. Rocky averaged only 90 CoachKings points last season according to our current scoring system, and his $7.2K starting price is midpricer category. Maybe NOT the set and forget selection in CoachKings he is for other formats?
  • Supercoach/AFL Fantasy – Yes. No question about it to me, he’s a lock in my side. Every reason I can give you why you shouldn’t pick him is just a hypothetical “if this happens” type argument. Will Rockliff be a contested ball grabbing, clearance winning, tackling machine? Yes, 100% he will, and because of that, he belongs in your team for 2016, especially at a discounted price. If you miss the boat on him there’s a good chance you’ll be spending 700K on him at upgrade time.

Over to you guys – who can smell what the ROCK has cooking in 2016?


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Brad

You’d be stupid not to pick him

@BarronVonCrow

Can't see many looking past him, Brad. Just ticks so many boxes of what we look for in Supercoach.

Alex

I totally agree,

Kev

Seven 120+ scores out of 10 100+ games? Rocky is a must at 550k!

@BarronVonCrow

BIG SCORES! We love 'em! If you have Goldy and Rocky, maybe you don't need to worry about having Ablett? Got two quality Captain options right there.

Phil

Biggest lock since Barlow was 100k

@BarronVonCrow

Don't get much bigger than that!

Bc

Not 100% he’s a lock didn’t score that well when he and beams where in together, I think beams will score greater and take points away from rocky

Royboy85

More pressure taken off Rocky this year too with more midfield grunt; He will have to be a lock!

@BarronVonCrow

Definitely the strongest part of their team, RoyBoy. Got more than a few quality mids now.

Dave

Delete your team from the comp if you don't lock this guy in. there is no argument, there is no humming and hawing, just lock it.

@BarronVonCrow

Only people who don't are trying to be different, I reckon. Damn Supercoach Hipsters.

Oh, Tom Rockliff is totally mainstream now, they'll say. I liked Tom Rockliff before he was cool, they'll complain.

Bah!

TJM

He bloody lock! What about his team mate D.Beams? Is it too much to have them both in my team?

fatboyfat7

I've got both at the moment. All I can say Beams was struggling to produce the goods at the start of last season to the point that I was considering subbing him out. He turned it around and by the end of the year his average was at 113 SC. Would hope he keeps up that form into 2016. And the Lions have a pleasant R15 bye so that helps the pressure of having both. For me though, his selection hinges on one thing, Hannebery. Similar price and was great last year, I can only afford one. Decisions, decisions!

@BarronVonCrow

I reckon you could TJM, Beams is a bloody superstar.

There is another mid from Brisbane who i'm quietly considering from my team however.

Swans2012

Is he Irish perhaps? Undervalued…. If only he was dpp

TJM

Is he a hard headed ex carlton player?

sam siddall

Seen alot of teams in sc af and rdt with him not in and i just laugh to myself and say u have no idea

@BarronVonCrow

That surprises me, Sam. I thought he'd be in EVERY team.

SCaddict

Yeah Barron he should be a very popular selection and an instant lock in Addicts for sure.

Perhaps not quite the bargain that Libba represents but you are still getting a substantial discount on a likely top 8 mid this season.

ball swing

how exactly have you SEEN other teams in SC, AF and RDT already??? Bit of an exaggeration there aint it mate?

Dools

Fridge and I smell $$$$Value 550K FOR A 650K PLAYER when not knocked out … Which is a trait i love in the man. See ball get ball …..Selwood like in ball attack. Was unlucky last year this season he will make his own luck and attack the footy just ,ike before…The easiest pick for Mid Price madness statagy….

NICE stuff BVC…

@BarronVonCrow

Absolutely Dools. Love those hard nuts. Contact injuries are just part of the game, he had a few last year, but that doesn't mean I won't pick him again this year.

Stirlsy

At 550k you just can't pass him, locked and loaded for Rnd 1

@BarronVonCrow

Definitely, Stirlsy. At that price I just can't see how you can justify not picking him,

I N Pieman

Gaz Rocky at 270k cheaper than last season. Libba & omeara at massive unders. Anyone with half a clue will have those 4. All locked away in my squad

@BarronVonCrow

I'm loving it this year, Pieman. So many quality options at discount prices in the middle. Means I can pump $ everywhere else.

Grant Lewis

Brad couch probably ahead fitness and training wise atm.

How Many Sleeps!?

Should the winner of Supercoach 2016 get a Lamborghini!?

@BarronVonCrow

I don't see why not

TRIGGER HAPPY

Still tackled like a man possessed last year with broken ribs! Now they have healed gotta lock him in. Fully fit look out! Time to rocky and roll.

@BarronVonCrow

Shows you what a tough bastard he is, doesn't it TH. I had cracked ribs once and I moaned and complained like a little girl and all I was doing was getting off the couch!

Gaveday

Tom Lockriff

@BarronVonCrow

He most certainly is!

@randomcliche

Lockribs

Keenbutclueless

Lock the Rock!

@BarronVonCrow

He's locked!

Westy

Rocked and roaded!

The Runner

He was in and out of my team 3 times last year. This year I'll be happy to select him once again and share the big C. Love having the site back up boys, cheers.

Wombatsfc

Damn Sherlock you're deadly on the smokies this year mate.
obviously I say "pfft, Rocky for less than Shiel, set the block in concrete at M4".

I reckon that the real SC issue from Brisbane Lions for 2016 will be the notoriously fragile Dayne Beams. Anybody considering him as a starter and possible POD should consider the following.
The former 'Kamikaze Kid' the BandF winning Tazzie Lion Mitch Robinson.
Priced for low 90's but Ave 110 over the last 10-rounds after a role change, four scores over 120 with a high of 166!

I'm not suggesting that Mitch is a lock he's absolutely NOT but his obvious success in the final 10-games l/y and his durability suggest that for the benefit of team structure the Beamer might not spend anywhere near as much time on ball this year.

It's just another 'possible' to ponder.

Hazey

Or for the real risk takers, grab Ryan Bastinac, who has been assured he’ll be playing his preferred role as an inside mid….

I’ll be keeping an eye on him, but 99% sure I won’t pick him.

Seaford Scouse

OMG The boys and the Community are all back! I’m thanking everything! What a disaster last year was for me and my cobbled troop of fantasy warriors! Only one word for me on Rockliff, LOCK!

Jock

The Scouse!! Great to see you back mate

Dean

I almost ruptured a scrotum when I seen you guys back on. Absolutely like a belated Christmas present just arrived. WELCOME back Jock, Crouching & Higgo.

I just went on my SC today for the first time since the finals, I thought I may as well poke around and start structuring a team together.
Can't everyone start selecting there team yet?. I can but maybe because I was a SC Gold and have a Hearald sun plus subscription which is valid up until April – After that I will be getting rid of it.
The thing I am sticking to this year is to not go huge in defence, I keep saying it every year but I give in and it ALWAYS stuffs me up something chronic. This year it isn't going to happen..

This is my first draft for 2016 so to speak. Rookies will change as always.
DEF: SIMPSON, SMITH, MALCESKI, B REID, FRANCIS or WHITECROSS, BONNER (COUGHLAN, TIPUNGWUTI)
MID
FYFE, GAJ, SLOAN, ROCKLIFF, McVEIGH, LIBBA, O’MEARA, GRESHAM (KERRIDGE, JANSEN, PETRACCA)
RUCK
GOLDY, NAITANUI (NYUON)
FORWARD: DAHLHAUS, BARLOW, MOTLOP, ANDERSON, COCKATOO, BROWN (AHEM, KOMMER)

$30,400 in bank

Your feedback is appreciated

Stirlsy

Fair effort for Team #1….. I'm on team #6 and finally happy with it.

Jock

Thanks for the welcome back Deano! She opens up on the 29th mate – not the worst first up effort ive seen there

Phil

Fair team first up Dean good stuff. My only query would be you say you don't wanna spend to much in defence (sounds logical) but then you go and put one of the most expensive defenders in your MIDFIELD??

Dean

Cheers Phil I hear ya mate, However I think McVeigh could go huge this year, having him in my Mid just gives you that extra diversity with your DPP's

I will change it around another 30+ times no doubt just like every other year.

LuskinStar

This ones a no brainer. Last 6 games averaged 135 and he will only set you back 550K. LOCK

@Seeker11Music

Rocky is probably the biggest no brainer of 2016, even more solid than Libba

PJ8

LOCK!
Even more will pick him now J. Selwood is injured and touch and go for round 1.

Liam

Aaron Hall as a smokey POD?? 428k FWD/Mid swing

Kev

Averaged 112 over his last 7 games but only managed an average of 59 in the 6 before that (taking out his 2 sub affected scores). With the suns getting half their team back in the guts there won't be space for him

Dean

Second team draft

DEF: SHAW, McVEIGH, SMITH, MALCESKI, FRANCIS, M BROWN (RICE, COUGHLAN)
MID: FYFE, GAJ, SLOAN, ROCKLIFF, LIBBA, O’MEARA, HOPPER, GRESHAM (KERRIDG, PETRACCA, HIBBERD)
RUCK: GOLDY, LOBBE (COX)
FORWARD: DELEDIO, DAHLHAUS, BARLOW ANDERSON, COCKATOO, CURNOW (AHERN, M BROWN)

I'm still not entirely SOLD on Deledio at his price with no DPP – My rookies obviously will change right up to Round 1

Suggestions or advice appreciated in advance.

crowls

deano, team 2 and already brealing your goal of going light on def. mate >500k for def as nobody can pick the six guys who will avg near 95. so why pay more tem. also ? over mcv with interuppted pre season. for me KK, bartel, maybe yeo or smith. def no malceski.

Dean

dont put bartel in mate the guy is 33 – There is no sub vest and with less rotations this year, im almost certain they will rest him quite a lot so keep that in mind mate.

I'm not going anywhere near Bartel

THE SALTSHAKERS

This guy set some astonishing all round stats in 2014. Avg over 33 or 34 possies and 10 tackles a game. Not even the best two mids the game has seen in Swan and Ablett in their best years where they had some leather poisoning only posted 3 to 4 tackles a game.

If theres any basketball fans out there its kind of like the year Michael Jordon won the scoring and defensive MVPs which had never been done before. Thats the kind of relentlessness the Rock brings.

This is my 5th year of SC, so you do notice some players who had big years relatively early in their careers, that other such top talent do not. In the 5 years ive been playing the two stand outs were both Fyfe and Rocky. In Fyfes case he was used up fwd and still avg 108 or so. Rocky was like 107 or so, these are not exact figures as I cbf accurately referencing haha but that included stints where played him as forward as mentioned in this post. Again roughly from memory once he went back in the mid, he avg 127 games for the rest of the year. He followed this up with his best season ever, which as I said before statistically in terms of an all round game on both offence and defence has never been done. The game where him and Hanley both hit 45 possies or whatever I think Rocky also had 14 tackles. Thats in a class of its own.

Tony Green interestingly had one of the best rookie years in SC. Was beaten by Cripps last year. He had a couple down and then in 2014 came back with a his last 12 games or so avg 127. So he is in that ball park, he just has to improve his efficiency. This was the same argument for Fyfe, in 2013 and 2014 I think he was the clanger king but still scored well. Last year when instead of just banging it on the boot out of a clearance and having it turned over he improved his Contested Possession winning ability but the difference being in 2015 he found targets and was #1 player that year. If Greene can do that, he is one to watch, but im thinking Shiel might pick up some of the CP workload that has been lost with Treloar going to Pies. For the few years its been Treloar and Ward who won the footy. I think 12 and 10th in CP per game in 2014. Toby one to watch.

THE SALTSHAKERS

The other bloke who really impressed me was Luke Parker, he had over 500 possies in 2013, so I picked him 2014 and it turned out to be very astute as was one of my best PODs in our league that year. I followed his pre season form, he had done everything right. He was building his tank, as he had arrived. He started well, his pre season he was in ripping touch, but the next step didnt come as Hannebry won a lot of his footy and then Kennedy. When he went down inj, was a relief from SC perspective as I could trade him off rather than hold and hurt.

He is in that Heppel range for mine. Heppel is classy and gets plenty of possession just not damaging like Pendlebury of which is compared, he is more Cotchin like. Parker, well his best footy in 2014 was in his clearance work especially across half forward. He has the same ability as Fyfe to get the CP at will and waltz out with it cleanly when he wants. A no for me as need to see another year, and the midfield talent take SC away from each other over the course of a full season. Interestingly with a returning Buddy and strong mid, they can go deep again this year provided they get the best out of their lesser knowns and up and comers like Rampe etc, it wont be their stars that will be the issue, it will be whether or not they have any weaknesses. For them to win a Premiership they need to have their lesser knowns step up.

I think Parker and Mitchell will have another year of maturity under their belts and will be looking at 2016 with less pressure on them with Hannerz being the #1 mid but also keenly aware a window year was lost last year. Tommy Mitchell was super impressive between def and for 50 arcs creating much needed link up play. Parker may even play up forward more this year as will Kennedy at times.