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The Daily Fantasy Verdict – Todd Goldstein

Published by Lekdog on

The Daily Fantasy Verdict - Todd Goldstein

When I think security I think of a few things.

I think of Durex, which have saved me a few times community, I think Bonds jocks, which do a fantastic job of securing the Lek-Package, I think of Crim-Safe doors, Australia’s leaders in security door technology and I think of North Melbourne’s Ruckman, Todd Goldstein.

When the fantasy gods were cooking up the perfect fantasy football player, Todd Goldstein was the bloke they had in mind. The 201cm goliath has redefined what it means to be a ruckman in this fantasy caper of ours. This isn’t just a bloke who can hit a ball towards players in the same colour as him; this is an elite footballer that can read the ball as it fly’s through the air better than Hypotenuse could read the side of a triangle.


Not only did Goldstein finish first for hitouts in 2015 with a grand total of 1058 (60 higher than the next best in Aaron Sandilands) but he also finished first for total Supercoach points with 2705 (next best was Scott Pendlebury with 2557) and first for total AFL Fantasy points with 2663 (including finals)!

Goldstein’s impressive 2015 fantasy campaign didn’t just come about from punching a few balls to teammates. Whilst he did average 44.1 hitouts for the 2015 season he also became an accumulator of the ball, averaging 14.7 disposals, 4.2 marks and 4.2 tackles per game! Flashback to 2014 and most thought the change in ruck scoring would leave Goldstein stuffed…how wrong we were, the big bastard averaged 128.8 Supercoach points and 113.8 AFL Fantasy points for the year.

Now what really impresses me is the security this man provides, he has been so consistent for so long now that I think we all just need to lock him in and throw away the key. Since 2010 Goldstein has played at least 21 games each season (missing just round 23 in 2015) and since 2011 he has averaged at least 12 disposals per game and at least 31.6 hitouts per game. He also spends the whole game out on the ground and was ranked 16th for time on ground in 2015, this means the new rotation cap and lack of sub-rule will see this man on the ground as much as the goal posts!

If I haven’t sold you on him yet I’ll just add this, against Essendon in round 16 of 2015 he scored 221 Supercoach points and 175 AFL Fantasy points…

2016 Prices: $695K SC, $630K AF, $11.1K CoachKings
2016 Position: RUCK
Games last season: 21
Average last season: 129 SC, 114 AF, 139 CK
100+ SC Games last season: 18
Sub 80 SC games last season: 1
SCPrice range last season: $511K – $771K
Missed games last season: 1

LISTEN IN HERE TO JOCK, CROUCHING AND HIGGO’S LATEST PODCAST

The case for:   

  • Simply put you can’t afford to not have Goldstein’s consistent 100+ scores in your side.
  • With Goldstein at R1 you don’t need to worry about whether he’ll play or not, he’ll be playing every week.
  • How he scores. Goldstein scores from accumulating the pill, tackling and of course hitouts. He’s the best in the comp at hitting the ball to his teammates and that form is going to continue in 2016.
  • Goldstein just signed a new three-year deal so he won’t be having the free agency jitters we’ve seen in the past.

The case against:

  • This is the major one community, he’s the most expensive player in the game but so he deserves. You might be able to save a fair bit of cash by not selecting him but it is a risk.
  • Sheep selection. Every man and his dog will have Goldstein in their team, if he goes down then we’re all stuffed. But if you take a risk and don’t select him then you’ll be miles ahead if he misses games.
  • Other options. There are a lot of cheap ruck options this year and you have to ask yourself if an extra 20+ points a game from Goldstein is worth the extra $200K+ starting price on his head.

The Verdict:

  • CoachKings – He’ll cost some big coin but I don’t think you can afford NOT to select him. If you can pick the one game in 2016 when his score will drop below 100 then more power to you, but if you’re human like me you just deduct him from your salary cap every North Melbourne game.
  • Supercoach/AFL Fantasy – Those of you who know me in the community know that I spend big in the ruck department. This year will be no different when it comes to my R1, lock in Goldstein and throw away the key. He was the number one fantasy scorer in both codes in 2015 and for good reason; he’s very good at football.

Now it’s over to you Community, how many of you will be locking in Todd Goldstein for 2016?


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Hawker_08

Good on ya Jock. The key is long gone and I gave no idea where I tossed it!! LOCK HIM IN

Ben

Way too expensive to start with Goldy. Will start with Lobbe who will thrive as the sole ruck at Port which will see him substantially increase in value. Then i'll trade Lobbe out for Goldy once Goldy has played early games against many of the toughest ruck opponents in the league which should see him drop in price considerably.

I did the same thing last year with Goldy and pounced on him at the start of round 10 when he was just 511k.

Ben

I feel as though 2015 was an outlier though and cannot see Goldy going close to a 129 average again this year. I think he will average somewhere between 110 – 115 over the first few rounds which will see a big drop in price.

Ben

Completely understand the set and forget strategy. A lot less stress involved!

Patch

Love it, Lek. Locked and loaded.

Mrs Goldstein

Yep throw awyay the key.

Mick

Locked, at this stage I'm going in with Goldy and Lobbe.

gaveday

upgrade target, he'll flounder at some point. Surely……

sam siddall

Going stef and lobbe at this stage letting me lock in b.crouch at m8 hopefully lobbe starts good goldy drops abit and with first upgrade downgrade trades lobbe out goldy in for only 100 to 150k difference

Shane Morrison

I can’t spend more on a ruck than I do on the best mids. With Champion Data buggering around with the rucks last year, who knows what we will have in store this year. He’s about 4th in line for me, I just lose too much elsewhere to consider him at the price.

Jimi

With his starting price Goldy is an upgrade target for me.

I'm saving $100k and going with Martin R1, I expect he'll at least maintain his 110 average, possibly could go up 5-10 now that Luey is out of the picture at Brisbane.

t-Mitch

I’ve never been more certain about starting a player in SuperCoach in my life!

Stirlsy

To much dosh to spend at the start of season, prefer to spend the 100k I can save on a gut premo, ill start with Sauce Jacobs and im tossing around 3 others as the back up and look to get Goldy at around the 600k mark or a little less around rnd 8 to 10.

I N Pieman

Toughest call of the preseason for mine. If you don’t pick him in the hope that he can’t hold his price & he starts pumping out 160’s you’ll be in trouble. If he has a slowish start it’s a huge advantage to non owners. 50/50 at this stage Lek. Love ya work

nathan

Its the same with ablett most years
Do you not take him in hope he fails
Or do you take him and hope succeeds

TRIGGER HAPPY

No for me at that price. Rucks are my conundrum. Do I go luey and dusty or stef martin and bird/Hutchings who I think could be a great pod. Decision, decisions.

Gotta remember there is a 221 in that Avg so logic says he has gotta come down in price if goes 110-115. He will have an so so game before the byes then everyone will want to get in bed with goldy a lock.

bUCKET__

Hutchings will be depth this year mate, avoid like the plague. The WCE best 22 has to add Redden and Jetta, and Duggan is likely going to be ahead of Hutch too. Not much room for him. Bird a heaps better option and I dunno if many people will select him as a midpricer!

CroMagnon Man

Lockity-lock!

John

Thoughts community on Jimmy Webster? Might breakout at last

Mark

I think thats a very valid option there John

knighta

Im a saints fan John, whilst i really like the kid as a player and agree he could make a leap in 16, i don't see him averaging 90 to be relevant for our sides

Stuart

He'll improve. But I don't see him ever being sc relevant.

Aaron

Sorry mate, but it's one of the worst calls I've heard all pre-season.

WazzaX

Locked in… I'm spending a large sum on the rucks this season as last year they were the difference in winning or losing many rounds in my league and with all the mid price premos up for grabs I think its worth doing in my opinion

Liam

James Kelly has just signed with Essendon as one of there top up players. Surely he has to be considered.
Does anyone know what price he would be at ?

Goldylock

76 average has him at 410k

BKW

Pass

Goldylock

I'm predicting def/mid dpp for him

Patch

Yep, he'll be undervalued because he got injured numerous times last year. If he gets MID/DEF (which he should) he is locked away in my side for a 95 average.

Liam

Even if he is priced at 410k ?
I would much prefer to have Smith or Malceski for around the same. I can't see Kelly averaging more than 80

Jimi

Hasn't averaged above 90 for 3 years, I'd want him to be at least below 350k before I'd consider him.

M-Town Ballers

Has come out on bombers website and said he’s felling fresh but not fit. I think he was picked up to lead the kids by being a loud voice and a big body. He should play mid but not sure if he’ll score well

Sam

How about Rhys Stanley from Geelong, handy fwd/ruc swing, bit of risk involved, but i think that he has a big upside and if you saw him in his final game before injury, he had scored 135SC in a just over a half a game!! Thoughts? Maybe a f4/f5 spot?

gaveday

You know – i'd love to see an article on the 6 ruck option.
Actually you could do more, but 6 would be something like Blicavs in the mid, leui, lobbe, trent west, in ruck – sinclair in in fwd with gorringe or hickey or bloody whoever really…… I mean YOU COULD do it. and maybe not damage you're starting 22 or budget beyond repair either.
The idea being that you choose mid price rucks who develop $$$ then swing set them into ruck and upgrade in other areas late on – it also gives you huge injury protection –

Of course I WON"T be doing it. But hey.

Derek

Norf have a pretty good draw to start the season.

In their first 9 games they only have Crows, Fremantle & Dogs who were top 8 last year and they get those three games at HOME.

Their other 6 games are against, Lions, Melb, GoldCoast, Saints, Essendon & Carlton.

Besides Goldy, what other Norf players should we be looking at?

TJM

Hibberd maybe?

LuskinStar

and Jed Anderson

Josh Bootsma

Great work Lek!

Just wanted to know what the "priced to average" formula is?
Eg. What score would Goldy have to average to maintain his $677,000 price tag? This will help the community to make calculated decisions about which premiums and mid-pricers to select.

Keep up the great work!

LuskinStar

I think the breakeven for $677000 is 125. I thought though his price was $695100.

Josh Bootsma

Sorry, his price is $695,100.

How are you estimating these Breakevens?

Kev

Brilliant write up Lek. Absolute lock for mine, Gaz was 695k last year from memory and Goldy can pull Gaz-esque numbers. I can deal with a bad game

Dools

i rate the set and forget ruck stratagy. 2015 i went in with Goldy and Big Ivan (the woefully Terrible ) . This is the call of the 2016 SC season.

Has a ruck man every dominated so much…No

I’m all for paying premium on great players like baby Jesus and Dependelberry. ..But a single Ruck???? much to ponder Lek..much to ponder….To the Fridge!!

General Soreness

Last year Goldy started at $511K no brainer. $160K dearer this year, I have plans for those $$$ 🙂

TRIGGER HAPPY

Worth noting that every premo fell in price during the year. Just need to decide if you take the gamble on this happening early on or if you start with them and hope it happens later and they punch out the some big scores to give you some breathing space on the pack.

sterlings gold

I'm with you lekdog, not having to make trades always the best strategy, lock in the big boys from day dot!!

LuskinStar

For players who will be as popular as Goldy you either take him on Day 1 or go without him all year in my opinion. As the season wears on you should be looking for a POD not locking in someone that those ahead of you in rank also have. At this stage I'm with him.

BarronVonCrow

I'm like bloody Ross and Rachael on this one, fellas, jumping back and forth on will I or won't I have Goldy in my side. For a little bit I think we're gonna get together, but then something happens and he's on the outer again. I absolutely love set and forget rucks, so that means a Lobbe/Leuenberger combo is less appealing than say a Goldstein and Mumford/Nic Nat/Jacobs combo, but that's a lot of cash to fork out in one go. But I think this year might be the best one yet to spend up big in the rucks with some good high end talent at mid level prices available in the middle of the ground this season.

I will have to ponder on this some more. You're certainly convincing me why I should grab him, Lek.

throttlefinger

Well done, my man. Miss the Lekprose! Although knowing your love of lavishing the rucks, the verdict not a shocker.

Price is just too damn high. Agree with Wombats that he'll garner some more attention and his numbers will dip. First 4 games have him against Sauce, Martin and Sandi (Bombers he'll go 130+) so can see that value dropping significantly.

Love the man but too many trims and cuts would need to be cut with the structures I've started to settle on. See you Round 8 or so Goldie!

Derek

after the first 4 games, the next 5 are real nice.

prices are on hold for the first 3 weeks, so won't get much drop before the nice run of games.

The Guru

Nothing surer than skid dies in the jocks, Jock. He's a dead set brick in the wall cobber.

General Soreness

Big fan of the big man, but I am a bigger fan of value and SC points. He will stay on my radar and in the unlikely event he is going as well as 2015, I will bring him in, probably $100K cheaper. Set and forget can be achieved with $150K less that can be used elsewhere. without factoring in price rises on my rucks and $150K spend elsewhere, I expect to be significantly better off not taking Goldy initially. Therefore I encourage everyone to lock Goldy away. 🙂

Swans2012

I’m with you general, just too much spend for a big lanky bastard….

TJM

Thoughts on Tom Nicholls and Mumford?

M-Town Ballers

Will be keeping an eye on a possible Nicholls and Curry R2 R3
Nicholls said one Suns website he’s fighting with curry for No 1 ruck possi

gaveday

While you all drool over goldy and his big hitting numbers, remember that Leu is priced to average 57, whilst goldy is priced to average 128.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Upgrade target. Don't take him early.

Gaveday

Because cause because. Mummy,lobbe or Nic nat represent better value at r1.

Mac

Anyone interested in Harley Bennel

gaveday

Yes and no. I'm going for dusty and wingard, but HB is in the mix if I get on the sauce.

Mac

I currently already have chop sticks and wingard, not sure who to have as my third premo forward, seriously thinking about Westhoff as a major POD

gaveday

I'm playing it super risky ATM.
FWD line is Martin, wingard, bird, daisy, wells, Jed anderson, Callum sincair (RUCK), Sam kerridge

BKW

Had Bennell last year and he did my head in (inconsistencies, injury, club suspension) super talented but not sure he he has dedication to be an elite player

Derek

Yarran $400k or Malceski $384k or BSmith $415k?

Swans2012

Both smith and eski for mine, both potential 90-95 average.

The Ranger

Lek, TF, Wombats, the General, Dools, Patch, the Barron, Pieman, Derek, Sarah…blimey, everyones back on board!
Even Bootsma!
Good to see / hear / read you all again and thanks Jock and team for making it all possible, I was wondering how the footy would be this year without this motley crew.
A happy new year to all and best of luck for the year ahead.

Nic Nat and Lobbe are sitting in my first draft team but hey, it's early days…

Derek

Same R1 & R2 as me

Sarah

Cheers Ranger! It's great that we're all back. I couldn't cope without this website. I need my supercoach fix!!!

sam

Jonathan Simpkin joins Essendon as a top-up player, my thought is this could be very fantasy relevant! should be pretty cheap and probably a mid/fwd???

BKW

Yeah I like him – depends on price

Sarah

He should be cheap. His average last year was 26. Only played 1 sub-effected game – 34 minutes to be exact! I estimate his price to start at $140,300 based on this years formula.

Chicko

I love the Goldfinger, massive price and at this stage I’m starting with him. Will check out Lobbe in the NAB but Luey too much of a risk even in my decimated Bombers line up. Tip my bowler hat to you Lek!

wombatsfc

Bizarre. Goldy was SC top ave last year a full 12 ave points higher than Pendle yet only 40% of teams had him at the end

@wheels_1987

Such a big task
Goldy
or
Lobbe + Luey

This descision will make or break many seasons

@emhoy

He was my first picked player, lock him and throw away the key. Good luck trying to bring him into your team if you don't start with him.

PJ8

Nice Lek! Goldy is a must have. He will be, along with Libba and Rocky, in 70%+ of teams.

The main question will be who to get in R2? Who out of the next best group to get? Martin, Mumford, Jacobs, NicNat are all great options and with one of these along side Goldy could potentially look at 220-250 points a week just from the Rucks and that's before you put the C on Goldy.

Or save money and risk Berger, Kruz or Z.Smith?

Thoughts on R2 community? Who will you be looking at Lek?

magpie4ver

I like Lobbe

Matt

Picking goldy expecting him to drop 10-15 points in average, but hoping for the best. It’s a dangerous game going into the season planning to trade a player in, all it takes is a couple of spot fires and your left with a ruck averaging 85 and you’re losing 30 points a game not having goldy. For me I’m starting him. If he drops 15 points per game he’ll still be top 2 or 3 if not still number 1.