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The Daily Verdict – Matthew Lobbe

Published by Barron Von Crow on

Daily Fantasy Fix - Barron on Matthew Lobbe

“Why wouldn’t Port Adelaide trade Matthew Lobbe?”

That was the cry during the off-season after the Power recruited Paddy Ryder and Charlie Dixon over consecutive off-seasons. Especially after it was revealed the Western Bulldogs were heavily into him. Well, that decision to keep Lobbe now looks like a genius move now that Ryder will miss the 2016 season.

I know Hinkley always proclaimed that Lobbe was still in his best 22, but personally I just couldn’t see them fitting all that tall timber in a single side, especially with a reduced interchange cap. Now that Ryder is out, Lobbe is handed the main ruck spot again, a role he had in 2014 and excelled at.


So can Lobbe repeat that effort in 2016? Let’s find out:

 

2016 Prices: $389K SC, $431K AF, $6.7K CoachKings
2016 Position: RUCK
Games last season: 17
Average last season: 72 SC, 78 AF, 84 CK
100+ SC Games last season: 2
Sub 80 SC games last season: 10
SCPrice range last season: $345K – $541K
Missed games last season: 5

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The case for:

  • Price. Rucks can always be tricky. You either go ultra premium on a ruck like Todd Goldstein or Stefan Martin, or take your chance on an a cheaper up and comer. Lobbe is both cheap and has runs on the board; we don’t normally get mid priced gems in the ruck, so Lobbe is looking like a rare occurrence indeed.
  • Workload. Now that Ryder is out and the Power delisted Jarrad Redden, Lobbe is pretty much the only genuine ruck with AFL experience left on the Power list. If we look at the depth stocks, we’re left with Billy Frampton and Dougal Howard, both of who are only 2nd year players who need more time in the SANFL to develop. The Power are likely going to stick with Lobbe through thick and thin in 2016. He’ll still have backup in the team on gameday, but Dixon is best suited as a forward (and has the ever persistent problem of being dead) and Westhoff and Trengove are only pitch hitters.
  • A multi-talented ruckman. Lobbe isn’t just reliant on hitouts and hitouts to advantage to score his points, he’s also a ferocious tackler, in 2014 not only did he rank 8th in Hitouts per game, he also ranked 8th in Tackles per game as well, averaging 6.5 last year. Even with his diminished scores last year, Lobbe still averaged 5.8 tackles per game last year.

 The case against:

  • One hit wonder? Lobbe has been in the league 6 years and in that time he has 3 seasons where he’s averaged in the 70’s, one season (2013) where he averaged 86 and then the big year in 2014 when he averaged 100.7 SCPoints. The Power was on fire in 2014, so was Lobbe’s Supercoach year just a result of the team being good overall? And if the Power struggle again, will his SC scores suffer along with them?
  • Clangers. Lobbe has his clanger issues at times, ranking in the Top 10 for Clangers in 2011, 2012 and 2014. Clangers are bad for business in Supercoach, folks. Obviously it didn’t hit his scores too hard overall in 2014, but it’s still something to consider.

The Verdict

  • CoachKings – An acceptable starting option for sure, but even in his best year of 2014 he had 7 games (including Finals) where he scored below 80 SC points. So maybe pick him if he has a good matchup, or if you’re short of cash on a big ruck like Goldy.
  • Supercoach/AFL Fantasy – Yes, I’d have him, either at R1 or R2, depending on how much cash you want to pump into your rucks. He’s either the perfect companion piece to a big ticket ruck like Goldstein, or a R1 with plenty of upside left in him. He obviously doesn’t have the season long scoring potential of the top priced rucks, but get a good year from him and he’s likely a Top 10 scoring ruck in Supercoach.

Now it’s over to you Community, how many of you are looking at picking Matty Lobbe in 2016?


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Shaneo

at that price very very tempting !!!!! Could be ideal at r2 next too Goldy

Shaneo

Loves being the lone ruck judging by 2014

Jock

He does lads. And my word the boy can play. Very high on my ruck watchlist for all formats.

CroMagnon Man

Uber lock!

sam siddall

Got him locked at r2 atm

@t_woof

Good preview BVC! Looks a value selection.

Would think he can add 20-25 pts on his current price.

First shot at The Higginator V16, he sits @ R1. Though it's very early.

TRIGGER HAPPY

As soon as the Ryder verdict was released I hit the power switch and lobbe lobbed into my team! Loves being the lone wolf and will help port launch back into the 8. Could yet be my r1 but waiting to see how others go in nab cup. But definitely a starting ruck in my squad.

Chris

I have Lobbe in my R2 at the moment like most but where I'm torn is with Goldy with that huge price tag. Last year you couldn't afford not t have him, just wonder if its better to wait on him this time round….

Derek

Goldy’s price tag is unreasonable. I’ll be waiting for his price to fall before getting him.

Jimbo

Who have you got in R1? Martin, Nic Nat, Mummy?

Jimbo

Thats to Derek…

Derek

my first draft has Nic Nat.

vin

What were his sc scores last year when ryder missed games?

@BarronVonCrow

Lobbe had scores of 83 against Melbourne, 85 against the Bulldogs, 80 against Geelong and 115 against Carlton when Ryder was missing.

He had some decent games in the SANFL too. Had 19 disposals and 62 hitouts against Glenelg in Round 17 that got him back in the AFL side.

Westy

Welcome back gentlemen, it's lovely to see/hear/read you all.
Locked in Lobbe when Ryder was outed.
Definitely also getting on Ken Lee (also known as Libba dibba dowchoo) now he's getting back from last year on the sideline. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQt-h753jHI

Crowmagnon

That is gold.

Kev

Not super keen on him, BVC. Like him as a lone wolf ruck but even in 2014 he only had 4 scores over 100 and 11 scores between 80-99. Leaning towards spending big in the ruck this year

@BarronVonCrow

Can definitely understand that prospective, Kev. I don't think he's going to be a season long keeper for me, he won't be a Top 5 ruckman for that very reason you stated, but he's at the very least going to make some cash, score OK and then I should be able to move him up without too much hassle. Especially if someone like Goldy has a few bad games and his price plummets.

Jimbo

Thoughts on my team please:

McVeigh, Yeo, Smith, Malceski, Skinner, Bonner, Collins, Francis
Ablett, Rockliff, Wines, Selwood, Parker, O'Meara, Liberatore, Parish, Gresham, Keays, Mathieson
Martin, Naitanui, Lowden
Martin, Wingard, , N.Riewoldt, Petracca, Hipwood, Lerridge, Kennedy, Brown.

Liam

Thoughts on my team.

DEF: H. Shaw, J. McVeigh, B. Smith, E. Mackenzie, A. Francis, C. Byrne (M. Brown, B. Rice)
MID: S. Pendlebury, G. Ablett jnr, J. Selwood, T. Rockliff, T. Liberatore, B. Crouch, D. Parish, J. Gresham (D. Gore, C. Petracca, B. Keays)
RUC: S. Martin, M. Lobbe (D. Wyatt)
FWD: L. Montagna, D. Martin, L. Dahlhaus, C. Bird, J. Anderson, S. Kerridge (N. Kommer, A. Gallucci)

CASH LEFT: $135,100
What should i do with the money left?
Thanks Liam

Jimi

You think Gallucci will get an early run?

Liam

They are very light on goal kickers and I think they might give him a chance. If not I will go for someone else

Nifty

Love the Brown Rice down back.. Very healthy..

Crowmagnon

I think he will be a good stepping stone to Goldy.

@BarronVonCrow

Yes, Crowmagnon, my thoughts too.

LuskinStar

I am using the same logic (player becomi g main ruck in a team) to select my R2 but have come up with Sinclair from tne Swans rather than Lobbe

@BarronVonCrow

I did consider that Luskin, but I picked Mike Pyke from the Swans when Mummy was traded and he was crap, so i've sworn off Sydney ruckman for now. He'll still be forced to share ruck duties with Tippett a bit, but as the main ruck you'd think he'd be able to improve on his last years averages.

sam

How about Rhys Stanley from Geelong, handy fwd/ruc swing, bit of risk involved, but i think that he has a big upside and if you saw him in his final game before injury, he had scored 135SC in a just over a half a game!! Thoughts?

@wheels_1987

hes a lock for me