Dex Files – Marc Murphy
Community – I don’t know about you, but my love for SuperCoach is getting severely tested this year. Injury after injury has been thrown our way. Our premium selections have been suspended or scoring ordinarily. Point-of-difference-picks have failed.
For some of us though; the knife that cuts deepest is the hours that have been sunk into our pre-season preparation have yielded naught. This year I spent many more hours than previous, researching and building prospective teams, yet rank poor. This year is the annus-horribilis for me and I’m currently at my worst rank – on the other hand though – for some, it’s a career best! You take the good with the bad community, and this year I will analyse my shortcomings and hopefully learn from my mistakes.
Enough of that; let’s look at another left-field pick.
Once deemed as an elite scoring midfielder; Marc Murphy has trailed off in recent years.
In 2009, Murphy rose to super-elite status; averaging 112.9 from his 22 games, being the 5th best SC player for the year. This strong form continued through to early 2012.
2012 saw Murphy miss 6 games due to a fractured bone in his shoulder – sustained in a heavy collision with Patrick Dangerfield – some would say he hasn’t returned to the form he once showed, considering his SC output since then has been significantly less.
2014 has been Murphy’s best (in terms of SC) since the lofty standards of 2009-early 2012; with an average of 106. 2015 has shown some inconsistencies – so let’s delve into them to hopefully find out why.
Murphy’s overall output in recent weeks has been significantly better, with increases in almost all of his stats. In fact; since Malthouse’s axing as senior coach, Murphy has averaged more Kicks, Disposals, Contested and Uncontested possessions, Marks, Marks inside 50, Clearances, Rebound 50’s, Tackles, Inside 50’s, Goal Assists and most importantly 33.2 more SuperCoach points per game. As Higgo would say, this is “Significant!”
In this time, Murphy is even averaging fewer clangers per game!
Another stat of note – Murphy does significantly better in Wins than losses. Almost every category records better stats, with the exception of Disposal Efficiency, Clangers & Goal Assists.
In the 5 games Murphy has played since Barker has been coach, Carlton has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses. If we narrow our focus to these games and compare the differential of stats in wins and losses – Murphy has been doing remarkably better in losses in this time in comparison to earlier in the season when Malthouse was coaching. In this time; Murphy has averaged 120.3 in losses, and 108.5 in the wins (the enlarged average can be associated with the 151 vs Adelaide in round 10).
Looking over Murphy’s 2014 stats; we notice a similar trend to this year – Murphy performed significantly better in wins than losses.
In 2014; Murphy averaged 119.9 SC in wins, compared to 98.6 in losses (104.58 if we exclude his concussion affected Rd 22 game).
For the full season; Murphy averaged 106.1 SC (110.2 removing injury affected score).
Excluding the injury affected game, Murphy only dropped 3 sub-80 scores in 2014, and threw out 7 120+ games (13 100+ scores). Tasty!
History has shown Murphy can throw out captain-worthy scores, and recent history is showing a revitalised and higher scoring Murphy emerging in the post-Malthouse era.
For those of you with a Cripps, Shiel, Selwood, Griffen or other rookie/under performer – and don’t want/can’t afford The Bald Master – I give you Marc Murphy.
Murphy is priced at $544,500 (P2A 101.5), is averaging 101.3 – but more importantly – his 3 game average is 108 and 5 game average is 115.6.
If this still doesn’t persuade you – Carlton face Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne and GWS in the finals run. 2 of those games Carlton are genuine chances; the other 2 could be walkovers.
Obviously the choice to go Ablett is the safer/better option – but some people may not have the cash. Murphy is a valid option in my opinion.
I would love to replace Selwood with Murphy, but even that is out of reach for my woeful team this year, but maybe you can bring him in…