Dex Files – Marc Murphy
Community – I don’t know about you, but my love for SuperCoach is getting severely tested this year. Injury after injury has been thrown our way. Our premium selections have been suspended or scoring ordinarily. Point-of-difference-picks have failed.
For some of us though; the knife that cuts deepest is the hours that have been sunk into our pre-season preparation have yielded naught. This year I spent many more hours than previous, researching and building prospective teams, yet rank poor. This year is the annus-horribilis for me and I’m currently at my worst rank – on the other hand though – for some, it’s a career best! You take the good with the bad community, and this year I will analyse my shortcomings and hopefully learn from my mistakes.
Enough of that; let’s look at another left-field pick.
Once deemed as an elite scoring midfielder; Marc Murphy has trailed off in recent years.
In 2009, Murphy rose to super-elite status; averaging 112.9 from his 22 games, being the 5th best SC player for the year. This strong form continued through to early 2012.
2012 saw Murphy miss 6 games due to a fractured bone in his shoulder – sustained in a heavy collision with Patrick Dangerfield – some would say he hasn’t returned to the form he once showed, considering his SC output since then has been significantly less.
2014 has been Murphy’s best (in terms of SC) since the lofty standards of 2009-early 2012; with an average of 106. 2015 has shown some inconsistencies – so let’s delve into them to hopefully find out why.
Murphy’s overall output in recent weeks has been significantly better, with increases in almost all of his stats. In fact; since Malthouse’s axing as senior coach, Murphy has averaged more Kicks, Disposals, Contested and Uncontested possessions, Marks, Marks inside 50, Clearances, Rebound 50’s, Tackles, Inside 50’s, Goal Assists and most importantly 33.2 more SuperCoach points per game. As Higgo would say, this is “Significant!”
In this time, Murphy is even averaging fewer clangers per game!
Another stat of note – Murphy does significantly better in Wins than losses. Almost every category records better stats, with the exception of Disposal Efficiency, Clangers & Goal Assists.
In the 5 games Murphy has played since Barker has been coach, Carlton has recorded 2 wins and 3 losses. If we narrow our focus to these games and compare the differential of stats in wins and losses – Murphy has been doing remarkably better in losses in this time in comparison to earlier in the season when Malthouse was coaching. In this time; Murphy has averaged 120.3 in losses, and 108.5 in the wins (the enlarged average can be associated with the 151 vs Adelaide in round 10).
Looking over Murphy’s 2014 stats; we notice a similar trend to this year – Murphy performed significantly better in wins than losses.
In 2014; Murphy averaged 119.9 SC in wins, compared to 98.6 in losses (104.58 if we exclude his concussion affected Rd 22 game).
For the full season; Murphy averaged 106.1 SC (110.2 removing injury affected score).
Excluding the injury affected game, Murphy only dropped 3 sub-80 scores in 2014, and threw out 7 120+ games (13 100+ scores). Tasty!
History has shown Murphy can throw out captain-worthy scores, and recent history is showing a revitalised and higher scoring Murphy emerging in the post-Malthouse era.
For those of you with a Cripps, Shiel, Selwood, Griffen or other rookie/under performer – and don’t want/can’t afford The Bald Master – I give you Marc Murphy.
Murphy is priced at $544,500 (P2A 101.5), is averaging 101.3 – but more importantly – his 3 game average is 108 and 5 game average is 115.6.
If this still doesn’t persuade you – Carlton face Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne and GWS in the finals run. 2 of those games Carlton are genuine chances; the other 2 could be walkovers.
Obviously the choice to go Ablett is the safer/better option – but some people may not have the cash. Murphy is a valid option in my opinion.
I would love to replace Selwood with Murphy, but even that is out of reach for my woeful team this year, but maybe you can bring him in…
82 Comments
LongJimmy · 15/07/2015 at 16:14
nice post as always
LEKD0G · 15/07/2015 at 16:16
He is a bloody genius isn't he
Donavan · 15/07/2015 at 21:12
Great summary Dex, but just left out one critically important reason why Murphy has been scoring better in recent week, and the main reason I bought him in after his round 11 bye. Kreuzer is back, and is competing in the stoppages instead of given Carlton's opposition first use at most stoppages (Cam Wood does try hard, but he cant compete for more than half a game with a decent ruckman, Kreuzer & Wood combined can).
Josh · 15/07/2015 at 16:22
Brought him in couple weeks ago and am glad I did
What do you think about oxley to malceski/birchall this week dex?
@AusSports84 · 15/07/2015 at 16:23
Great post mate. I feel that we've missed Murphy's stellar mid season run. Right now the 2 targets have to be Rocky and or GAJ if we want to win flags and overall points leagues. However, if a coach is in the fortunate position where they already have both players then Murphy is the perfect unique option.
Derek · 15/07/2015 at 20:38
If I didn’t already have SMitchell, I might have looked at murphy
Liam · 15/07/2015 at 16:25
Is it worth getting Gazza if it leaves you with 1 trade
John · 15/07/2015 at 17:19
Trade is a bit light even if it means getting in Gazza.
Maybe you could get Hanners or some other premo around that price so you could save a trade
PDAP · 15/07/2015 at 19:59
NO! NO! NO! Save your valuable trade. Gee, your team must have received a lot of injuries.
Liam · 15/07/2015 at 20:23
Yep 12 injury trades this year
Liam · 15/07/2015 at 20:24
No PDAP, If i get Gaz using 2 trades then I will be left with 1 trade
@Rem_Wah · 15/07/2015 at 16:39
Andrew Gaff.
– Avg of 104.71 (with a 5 round avg of 118.4)
– 9 tonnes this season
– consistent (season low of only 84)
– Unique POD (currently sits in only 1.8% of teams)
Must be considered IMO
OzSonic · 15/07/2015 at 16:49
Had my eye on him for a few weeks. Going Selwood to Gaz and possibly Boston to Gaff. I've been saving for quite some time for Gaz. Cripps and Selwood still in my midfield though so still not sure. I can get both Gaz and Danger this week but would blow nearly all my coin.
Scott · 15/07/2015 at 18:30
Depends how many trades you have left but I'd do it if I could, I've been looking at both of them recently, I can only bring in one so am choosing Gaz.
PDAP · 15/07/2015 at 20:01
Trade Cripps, who has been great. Selwood will be better for the rest.
SideBySidebottom · 15/07/2015 at 20:33
West Coast have performed admirably but have had a soft run. The next seven weeks are Pies away, Sydney at home, Gold Coast away, Hawthorn at home, Fremantle, Bulldogs at home and Adelaide away. If you think he'll continue his form over these games then it's an easy decision. Good luck.
Ethan · 15/07/2015 at 21:15
unfortuantly, gaff cant handle the tag and that affected him in his 2013 season
Chicko · 15/07/2015 at 16:50
Dex, as always mate, your use of stats and research knows no bounds. Outstsnding work! Compelling but I’m going with the Bald Beast.
mike · 15/07/2015 at 17:16
The dilemma this week; 7 trades left, do I double trade to upgrade m8 to gaz but leaves me with cripps and Selwood as m6 and m7 or upgrade cripps and Selwood with my cash to get Rockliff and either hanners/priddis/Beams? I can then get Gaz before finals.
Jim · 15/07/2015 at 17:30
I reckon go with the upgrade of cripps and selwood to rocky and hanners or priddis if you will then still have enough to pick up gaz before the finals.
Swans2012 · 15/07/2015 at 23:25
+1
wise old man · 15/07/2015 at 17:30
For Bartel to drop to 460k, what would he have to score?
BKW · 15/07/2015 at 18:17
Jimmy has a break even of 174 and current price of 498.9k.
I believe it’s around $420 for every point above/below break even – so if Jimmy scores 100 this week he will drop 74 x $420 = 31K
I think he needs to score around 84
Ethan · 15/07/2015 at 21:16
http://tooserious.net/Stats.aspx
Your Welcome
Spooners · 15/07/2015 at 17:44
Looking to fill my final Defensive spot this week and was wondering who the best option would be out of Picken, Murphy, T-Mac, Houli, Laird or Rance would be.
Help Appreciated
scrofl · 15/07/2015 at 18:02
Murphy will be the most consistent. If you want to go a little riskier, but higher scores, go with TMac or Picken.
judd0 · 15/07/2015 at 21:16
Rance is tempting but I think that's chasing points, he will have to play shut down full back roles every second week. T Mac has been terrible and scored well this week but I wouldn't go near him.
I would probably look at Houli or Murphy out of those 6.
Francis · 15/07/2015 at 17:45
Option 1: Pittard to Picken
Option 2: Boak to Ablett
I'd usually do option 1 because the difference from Pittard to Picken is around 60+ points, whereas Boak to Ablett is probably around +30 points. But I feel now is the time to jump on Ablett because I'm not sure if he will remain this cheap. What do you guys think?
Tyler · 15/07/2015 at 21:20
If you're planning on having GAJ in your final team, option 2 is for you
Supercoach General · 15/07/2015 at 17:47
Who is the best forward option out of Delidio, Jack Riewoldt, Dahlhaus or Titch would be?
Thoughts please
scrofl · 15/07/2015 at 18:02
Lids, easily.
SideBySidebottom · 15/07/2015 at 20:41
Not Riewoldt.
frank s · 16/07/2015 at 20:23
Delidio for sure !!!
scrofl · 15/07/2015 at 18:05
I've got 6 trades left, and with Selwood out, I'm planning on moving Newnes into the mids, and then upgrade Hamling to Malceski. Once Selwood is back, Malceski will be my D7, essentially bench cover for if one of my defenders gets injured or is suspended for a round or two. The only problem is, I'll have to downgrade someone (most likely Boston) to make this trade happen. This will leave me with 4 trades for the remainder of the season. I'm already at full premium. Thoughts?
Wattsieesq · 15/07/2015 at 19:07
If you are worried about trades, then just flick Selwood.
scrofl · 15/07/2015 at 19:16
I'm not trading a premo unless he's injured, I learned that lesson already this season (I traded out Rance three weeks ago, he's gone massive ever since…). Selwood is only out for a week, and I think he'll come good come finals.
Derek · 15/07/2015 at 20:41
Save the trade
James · 15/07/2015 at 18:20
I have 1 trade left but my team is finished am i stuffed?
I N Pieman · 15/07/2015 at 19:03
You will need a miracle to avoid donuts
Steve · 15/07/2015 at 19:19
Yep
SideBySidebottom · 15/07/2015 at 20:46
I'd start boiling the kettle……….
Nick · 15/07/2015 at 19:00
Replacements for shiel. Options are Sidebottom, boak, ebert or greene as a smoky? Only got 2 trades left so cant get gaz.
SideBySidebottom · 15/07/2015 at 20:46
Sidebottom.
I N Pieman · 15/07/2015 at 19:09
Brilliant stats as always Dex. Murphy I think is a good option but surplus to my needs. Hope the gods are a bit kinder to us next year. I’ve made 11 injury trades & not including holding Sloane & rocky. I know your just as bad if not worse. This game can be brutal
Skindog · 15/07/2015 at 19:37
HHHHHeeeeeeeelllllllppppppp,,,,,,Nah,i'm done
Leighroy · 19/07/2015 at 10:33
Second that pieman
Pinidu.C · 15/07/2015 at 19:49
Thoughts on my team:
150K in the bank, 6 trades left
B: Shaw, Hodge, Simpson, Newnes, Murphy, Hibberd (Hamling, Edwards)
M: Fyfe, Danger, Pendles, JPK, Selwood, Lewis, Griffen, Saad (Lambert, Steele, Neal Bullen)
R: Goldy, Maric (Lucey)
F: Gray, Swan, Martin, Buddy, Bont, Titch (Daniel, Dale)
Derek · 15/07/2015 at 20:42
Saad to rocky
Pinidu.C · 15/07/2015 at 19:51
Thoughts on my trade plan?
R16
Boston > Daniel
R17
Hamling > Fields
Saad > Gazza
R18
Downgrade Neal Bullen
Griffen > Priddis/Hanners
Paul Walnuts · 15/07/2015 at 20:00
is Selwood a Sell or Hold ? I want to bring in Ablett and was planning to trade him for Griffin but now Selwood is out for a week, dilemmas ? Will Selwood come good ? Suggestions anyone ?
SideBySidebottom · 15/07/2015 at 20:43
Flick Griffen before Selwood.
derek · 16/07/2015 at 10:39
Bartel & Kelly back in team, hopefully Stokes as well, will help Selwood
Tyler · 15/07/2015 at 21:22
He will almost definitely come better than griffen
David · 15/07/2015 at 20:15
Dex I feel your pain!! So much pre-season analyzing and planning torpedoed by injuries, poor performance or suspensions. The Footy Gods are definitely angry this year … well at least towards some of us! I can’t believe that lately I have caught myself already thinking of
what 2016 might bring?! Surely 2016 has to bring better rankings and league results than 2015??!!
PDAP · 16/07/2015 at 00:19
Hopefully the sub rule be given the flick and because the game is becoming faster with more collisions/congestions, trades are increased (again) to 32 – 34.
David · 16/07/2015 at 09:20
Totally agree with getting rid of Subs!
As well as the increasing speed of the game and nasty collisions as a result the bloody Subs they are also occasionally stuffing up my Super Coach and Dream Team results!
Derek · 15/07/2015 at 20:44
How come Jock, Higgo or Crouching don’t post any comments?
Barney · 15/07/2015 at 20:58
Maybe they’ve been given the flick?????
FootyFanatic · 15/07/2015 at 22:29
I gotta agree with you Derek, I miss the times when they posted new articles weekly and frequently posted comments, those were the days.
Babo · 16/07/2015 at 12:05
good question
Ryan · 15/07/2015 at 21:01
Picken or Kolodjasnij?
Liam · 15/07/2015 at 21:07
That's a tough one, probably leaning towards Picken out of the two
Eagleboy · 15/07/2015 at 21:42
I'm pickin Picken.
TRIGGER HAPPY · 15/07/2015 at 21:21
I’m with u dex injuries have smashed my team this year planning can only get u so far the wrath of the SC gods will decide your fate. Murph not for me this year but here is my plan.
Trade down mckenzie who is not playing anyway to a non player melb or freo def as they play on Sunday and upgrade cripps to abs. I have smith as a D7 and would use this non player as a vc loophole.
Team would be:
Back : Hodge, tmac, houli, kk, ibbo, newnes (smith, hurley (freo))
Mids: abs, fyfe, rocky, priddus, pendles, parker, JPK, wines (steele, boston, dumont)
Ruck: Goldy, Mullett (cox)
Fwd: Gray, martin, swan, bj, winguard, tmitch (bont, lambert)
5 in the cupboard little cash as used to go cripps – abs.
No ruck cover but could use a trade if required.
Have hurley on the ground with ibbo as the E if VC fires.
Else play it safe and go dumont – maynard creating dpp but loosing vc loophole
or
DPP lambert – dumont trade dumont to daniel but loose vc loophole.
Would be great to hear yours and the community thoughts on my plan and team?
TRIGGER HAPPY · 16/07/2015 at 10:37
Anyone? Derek, pie man, Sarah, swans, krazy, r2d2? Worked hard on this team and would like to know your thoughts on plan and team. Goal is to beat my mate who finished top 50 last year. Not in contention for overall just wanna beat him. Think this could be the move.
@KrazeeEyezK1lla · 16/07/2015 at 11:43
I personally like the team. got some decent D7, M9 and F7 cover. I would look at getting in some ruck cover just to be safe. like the mix of POD's in there too.
ibbo is a bit of a worry. I've got him too and he's either rubbish or really good. if you can, look to try and get heath shaw in DEF somehow. not really a POD but really consistent.
in previous years i didn't really work on having swing sets on all lines, but this year I did and I'm glad i did. would recommend having that kind of cover too
TRIGGER HAPPY · 16/07/2015 at 11:55
Thanks waiting for the shaw spud score (he is due) then will upgrade ibbo. What do u think of getting a non playing freo rook Def?
@KrazeeEyezK1lla · 16/07/2015 at 12:11
if he's bargain basement 102k or whatever is the cheapest and he'll be handy to loophole, then why not.
if you are gonna be downgrading a Dumont or Boston, i'd definitely look at getting a MID/DEF to open up that swing set. there may be others out there at the 102k or so mark who won't play but could save you the 15k on getting maynard and could also be used to loophole. lots of people have been saying on here that maynard's JS also isn't great
throttlefinger · 15/07/2015 at 21:50
Superb as always, my data-addicted friend. Brought Smurph in 4 rounds ago and he's been delivering. Still waiting for that big 130+ score but think you're right that it won't come around until the Blues are in the victory circle. And who knows when that will be again.
Penny · 15/07/2015 at 21:55
Thoughts on my team? 🙂
250k 7 trades
Shaw,tmac,newnes,Simpson,hibberd,smith (hamling,dmac)
Fyfe,peddles,Mundy,Heppell,Parker,rockliff,Griffen,Wallis (Steele,lambert,Boston)
Gray,Martin,swan,Dahlhaus,franklin,Harvey(Daniel,karnezis)
Derek · 16/07/2015 at 00:51
I’d try and get a couple of ruckmen in your team before finals
r2d2 · 16/07/2015 at 02:28
What the ruck?
@KrazeeEyezK1lla · 16/07/2015 at 11:51
Wallis to GAZ this week (if $ allow)
next week, look at getting Hodge in for Smith. may cost you 2 trades, but then you'll have 4 left for the year with a pretty decent team
Riley · 15/07/2015 at 21:55
Hey Guys,
Got a dilemma and would appreciate some thoughts,
Team –
Def – Shaw, Newnes, Hodge, Gibson, Smith, Saad, Hamling and Adamson
Mid – Fyfe, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Beams, Parker, Hannebery, Rockliff, Griffen, Boston, Kavanagh and Payne
Ruck- Goldy, Nic Nat
Forward – Buddy, Martin, Deledio, Goddard, Gray, Swan, Steele and Lambert
Option One
Boston – Daniel (Via Steele)
Griffen – Gazza
leaves me with 4 trades and 11k left
Option Two
Saad – Picken
Boston – Daniel (Via Steele)
leaves me with 4 trades and 59k left
So dilemma is Option One or Two and is 4 trades enough or should I hold this week?
Cheers Riley
Wattsieesq · 16/07/2015 at 12:51
Option 1. Trade a$$ off.
Best VALUE Option? · 15/07/2015 at 22:10
Gary Ablett?
Tom Rockliff?
Tom McDonald?
I N Pieman · 15/07/2015 at 22:52
In that order mate. TMac had a great game. The two previous were no good. Best value is Rocky, 200k less than original asking & can go massive regularly
Dave Dreamer · 16/07/2015 at 06:23
Advice on this:
Option 1 – Get Gaz, but means I'll have McGovern and Smith as D5/D6 and be tradeless
Option 2 – Get Rocky and Houli and use McGivern/Smith as D7 loophole and be tradeless
Option 3 – Get neither, stay with Selwood, and have option 2 defense plus a trade in hand.
If I could rely on Selwood getting back to his elite level I'd go option 3 all day. But if he continues to spud and GAZ goes 130+, I'm missing 50 points a round.
Tyler · 16/07/2015 at 07:24
If one of your premos get injured, you could miss heaps of points. option 3
Dave Dreamer · 16/07/2015 at 09:31
Yea the smart money says option 3. I just hate not having Gaz and Rocky. But hey, it's the ultimate POD….bring on the injuries (sorry).
I'm still at a loss as to how I burnt all my trades. It's just been a blur of injuries.
Tyler · 16/07/2015 at 16:10
Mate I'm in the exact same position. All of a sudden BANG and all I'm left with is 2 trades.
Marcus · 16/07/2015 at 12:29
Hibberd to hodge or lewis to rockliff or hold
Comments are closed.