One down, two to go Community! Most people had a decent week last week, for me; 1926 was ok – considering I had 4 rookies (and Griff/Lumumba) scoring shite.
I actually lost ground, again, but may make up some places in the next two weeks (providing we don’t have unforseen outs). Round 12 – time to upgrade! Pick off two or ideally 3 underperforming premiums by replacing round 12 rooks or injured players.
This week, I look at Brandon Ellis.
Grossly underrated; Brandon Ellis has been purring along this year considering he is averaging 107.1, and is in only 1.4% of teams!
Season 2015 has seen Ellis open very strong, not producing a single sub-90 score yet – for 7 tons and a low of 90 so far. There is argument he has arrived as a premium option. Priced at $549k, he is a little pricey (priced to average 102.3), although his 3 round average is at a tidy 119 and his 5 round average sits at 111.2. Tasty!
Will this form continue?
I think it’s likely considering most teams put effort into Cotchin, Martin and/or Deledio before they target Ellis.
My only real worry, if we cast our eyes over 2014 – he has dropped some serious stains (6 sub 80 scores, with 3 below 60). This is a concern, however, so far in 10 games – he hasn’t yet dropped a sub 90 score.
As you can see – he can get the pill. In 2014 Ellis dropped below 20 disposals only 3 times – in his first 3 games. Since then, Ellis has not had a single game below 20 touches. He also likes to kick more than handball, and more importantly – has almost doubled his average tackles per game. See below, Ellis’ 2015 stats:
For those of you who like to know how well he goes in comparison to wins and losses, in his completed 2014 season and his 2015 season so far, he has averaged around 12 points per game better in wins – which is good – a loss isn’t correlating to drastically less points.
One thing we must ask ourselves if we decide to take a punt on Ellis – Will the tigers win more than they lose between here and the finals?
Tigers run home reads: WCE (MCG), SYD (SCG), GWS (MCG), CAR (MCG), STK (ES), FRE (MCG), HAW (MCG), ADE (AO), GCS (MCG), COLL (MCG), ESS (MCG) & NM (ES). That’s a pretty tough run really. You can pencil in wins against St Kilda, Carlton, and Gold Coast. They’d start favourites against GWS, Collingwood and Essendon. They’d be 50-50 against North, Adelaide and West Coast. Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle would be losses for mine.
So; Tigers have 3 likely wins, 3 likely losses, 3 probable wins and 3 coin tosses. Looks promising really, considering his finals games are all winnable games.
His points per minute (PPM) for 2015 is really good – a shade over 1 point per minute; considering the average game goes for 120 minutes, he’s likely to hit the ton.
Notably, Ellis is more an outside player (61% possessions being uncontested) – this can spell trouble if the tag does befall him. Another stat of note is his disposal efficiency of 73%, barely differing from 2014.
For mine, Ellis is a bona-fide option for out M8 position this year. When you weigh up all that I have laid out before you, do you think he is worth it?
Ellis is a very likely inclusion for me this week.