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Dex Files – Leigh Montagna

Published by Jock on

Concrete Booking AgencyTG Footy Tracgic - DexterGee, we saw some monstrous scores this week! Unfortunately, for me – I was hit with a Lewis late out, add Clark, McKenzie, Miller, Griffen, Selwood on-field and McIntosh on the bench; it wasn’t pretty.

So after 9 weeks and a mediocre overall rank of 3,879; “SoapOnARope” has been ruled out of contention for the 50k – therefore all my attention will be put towards winning leagues. We all know you can’t win with the same teams.

This weeks’ Mr Forgotten is Leigh “Joey” Montagna. Priced at $526k, he’s not cheap – but is he worth a valuable spot?

History has shown that Montagna can get off the chain. Just look at his last 8 years’ averages: 2014 (89.40), 2013 (114.8), 2012 (99.2), 2011 (100.7), 2010 (114.8), 2009 (125.8), 2008 (97.2) & 2007 (102.4). Of the aforementioned seasons, Montagna has missed just 8 games – that’s effectively 1 game a year he’d missed prior to 2015.

This year however; Montagna suffered torn cartilage in his left knee in the NAB Challenge. He was ruled out for 4 weeks when he was booked in for a scope to clean up the joint. Montagna recovered quickly to feature in the Saints’ round 1 loss to the Giants, scoring 110 SC.

Montagna experienced soreness in his knee and the Saints took a conservative approach – with him sitting out for the next 5 weeks, ensuring he was over his niggles. Since then though; Montagna has come back with 104, 128 & 117 for a 3 round average of 116, and funnily enough – 114.8 for the season so far.

After his second match of the year (round 7), he was a late withdrawal with Hamstring tightness, he has since played 2 games unhindered.

In his 4 games this year, Saints have won 2 and lost 2. What’s impressive is he is averaging 119 in losses, and 110.5 in wins. (A nice little stat to look at, considering St Kilda faces Fremantle, North Melbourne, Geelong and Sydney in finals).

Here are his 2013 -2015 numbers, and a small comparison to work with:

Montagna

In 2014, Montagna had his worst year since 2006 (St. Kilda finished last with just 4 wins and an average losing margin of 58 points). If we compare his stats to 2013 (his 3rd best ever SC year), he was down in almost every category; the worst being Disposals, inside 50’s and of course SC output. This could be attributed to the overall performance of St Kilda last year being uncompetitive, him just having a down year and/or him carrying an injury of sorts. Without watching his match tapes, I can’t conclusively deduct why.

In 2013, St Kilda finished 3rd last with just 5 wins and an average losing margin of 47 points; yet Montagna recorded his 3rd best Supercoach year. This gives us hope that he can replicate the feats of 2013 this year.

If Montagna can accumulate a 114.8 SC average with the likes of Lenny Hayes, Jack Steven, David Armitage & Nick Dal Santo in the guts; why can’t he achieve the same feat with Steven, Armitage and arguably Newnes commanding more attention than him?

His season so far has been marred with injury, but maybe Montagna can keep it together and average 100-110 from here-on-out. Not for the faint hearted, but providing you can get yourself cover – he could be the ultimate PoD to drag you up the ranks – considering he’s in only 0.9% of teams (less than 2,000).

I’ve already got Titch and Buddy in the forward line, so my Round 12 quota is full – but for those who don’t care about byes – or don’t have many R12 bye players, he could be one for you.

Well Community, is Montagna for you? Do you have the plums to pick him – or is he just too risky? We’d love to hear from you!


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TOM

Thoughts on my team please. 80k in the bank.

Simpson, Shaw, Gibson, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, Lever, McIntosh
Fyfe, Selwood, JPK, Parker, Beams, Rocky, Treloar, CEY, Miller, Steele, McKenzie
Goldy, Maric, Read
Gray, Martin, Swan, Hogan, Tarrent, Clark, Lonie, Krak

My bye structure

Round 11: 9 out
12: 10 out
13: 11 out

Was thinking Oxley to Hamling then Krak to a premo forward. Or I could do Krak to Laverde who should get a game soon and Oxley to Hodge.

Thoughts?

Patch

If you're looking at a non-playing rookie in the forward line on the cusp of games, Steele from GWS is tearing up the NEAFL and Hugh Goddard surely can't be much further away. I'd look at these two before Laverde.

Essendon not looking likely to pump games into kids, sadly.

TOM

I already have Steele in my midfield.

Youngy

Hope Goddard gets a game soon, especially with the byes approaching, he has been in my team all year

Rob

I would go oxley to hamling and then Tarrant or krak to a forward premo

Gareth

as a key-position player, can Hamling be relied upon to get consistent ok scores?

BKW

No, but he’ll be a decent bench option

General Soreness

Brilliant Dex, massive POD, if his bye was not so annoying I reckon I would be rolling the dice at that price. We all need one or two POD's to separate us from the herd. Will this be someones shark move in 2015?

Jacob

Not for me

Jedd

Team after byes. Still have 250k in bank. Comment opinions

ShawTaylorNewnes
SimpsonMcIntoshMcKenzie/Hamling (McKenzie/Hamling, Goddard)

FyfeKennedyParkerSelwood
Pendlebury LewisSloaneRockliff
(SwallowGlennLambert)

JacobsGoldstein (Brooksbury)

MartinSwanGoddard
Roughead Mitchell Krakour
(DaleCox)

scrofl

Is your spacebar busted?
But seriously, that looks like a good post-bye team. How many trades will you have afterwards?

Jedd

15, who should I upgrade Krakor for?

jezzahill

If you can get enough cash for Robbie Gray, he should be your next option up forward.

Patch

Love it Dex. As someone who loaded up on r13 bye players, at this stage he is in my side. Brilliant stuff, mate.

scrofl

I'm thinking of downgrading Oxley to Hamling and upgrading Bellchambers to Buddy – this will leave me with around 100k in the bank.
If not Buddy, who else at a similar price should I be looking at?
I've already got Dusty, Gray, Swan and Goddard. Don't suggest Titch, as I don't want him anywhere near my team.

Thanks community!

r2d2

D smith ? Dahlhaus ?

Patch

Bit more expensive, but Dahlhaus is looking very, very good.

derek

I thought bartel would be back by now

r2d2

Maybe someone too look at ….. But not until after round 12 for me

Jezg

Nice one dex. Great minds think alike. Have had joey in my sights for a few weeks. Only problem is the Sydney and freo finals draw. I know you noted his score output in losses but I think those teams will be hitting their straps by seasons end and if so the saints will be lucky to even touch the ball let alone produce 100+ SC scores. Im also liking Sam Mitchell so those two where my toss up for my final promo upgrade post byes. Thoughts??

Rob

Thoughts on my team please.

20k in the bank and 18 trades left.

DEF: Shaw, Simpson, Newnes, Higgins, Saad, Mcintosh (hamling, goodes)

MID: Fyfe, Pendles, Selwood, Gray, Griffen, Rockliff, CEY, Miller (krak, heeney, mckenzie)

RUC: Maric, Nic Nat (cox)

FWD: Martin, Goddard, Swan, Wingard, Hogan, Tarrant (Clark, TBC)

My bye structures:

Rd11: 8 not playing
Rd12: 9 not playing
Rd13: 12 not playing.

Really need some help on what trades to do now and in the coming bye rounds.
Would appreciate any feedback on my team and what trades to do through the byes.

Cheers

Dominic

Not a bad team there mate. Trade out krak this week for someone like jack steele, laverde etc.

derek

leave Steele & laverde alone until they have first been picked and second have played a few games. The drowngrades you make now are not designed to make you any cash (you won't have trades left to cash them in), they need to be players who will play. I think krak is a good option to get games in the future, he is DPP – HOLD.

Get rid of cash cows who have reached their peak or who are injured. IE: Goodes, Heeney, Clark, Miller.

Rocky out for 4-6 weeks, he has to go.

Liam

Agreed derek, you want as many playing bench players as possible during byes

Dann

But by your reasoning Clark should be kept because he's got golden job security and a breakneck of only 56 and only 1-2 week injuries.

Tom

what to do with clark?

hedski

I have traded him via krak to dumont. They have same bye. Would have held but need fwd cover if the bont misses this week.

Dee

Hold after Geelong's bye…

Tom

if I can upgrade Oxley now should I do it or should I hold him through the byes?

Sean

What to do with Rocky? Dont have enough money to upgrade to anyone decent

derek

have to find someone. What about Selwood, have you got a few coins to make the trade?

Youngy

Potentially hold?

SCaddict

Wallis downgrade could be considered. Make $100K and get a decent scoring player through the byes that is also likely to significantly appreciate in price.

dean

Ive locked him into my team this round avg 103.5 if you take our his injury game.

SCaddict

I think he has a decent shake at averaging around the 100 mark for the rest of the season in the post Libba void the Inner Sanctum talked extensively about in the preseason.

Certainly I strongly rate his chances of out scoring the likes of other popular value midfield picks in Griffen, Rich and Juddy from here.

Nicholas

Great article just wondering what to do
Forward is gray, goddard, martin,, franklin, swan, clark, hogan, tarrant who to bring in and finish forward deledio or dahlhaus.
Also should i get rid of for him tarrant or clark

TOM

Who to get rid of first pick 2

Oxley, Miller, Tarrent, Krak

Rob

tarrent, krak

BKW

Oxley, Krak (miller next)

Kylie

put him in my side last week for the same reasons in your article! hoping he remains injury free and is the ultimate POD for me!

Mac

We can hold Clark this week, he is out, wont lose cash.

Youngy

Agreed

Dee

he still could play this week….

Gareth

Will Jelwood be a good get soon?

Youngy

Definetly, Im looking to jump on after his bye

SCaddict

Would need to stitch a couple of 120 plus games together to get me excited about the idea. Just seems like there are so many factors counting against him this season but he's a proven gun so it would be crazy to completely dismiss him that's for sure.

TheCompletePackage

Why would you bother?

Dee

affirmative…

Abrax

Need some help guys…Pick one out of Pendles, Lids, Dahlhaus, Hannebery, Mundy or Wines. I'm leaning towards Wines but would like some input

randomcliche

Lids, if he wasn't playing freo this week….

MoshedPotatoes

Richmond will beat freo

Mick

Dahlhaus for mine tossing up wines myself but think we should be top 10 or down for cash

Sean

thoughts on Dan Robinson (syd) and Boston from goldcoast?

Looking at maybe bringing one of them in a week early this week

which one should I go?

Baggyizzle

Boston for sure, if he stays healthy (got done from Glenn) he has a ton more job security.

I get the feeling sydney rotate there last two spots on the field to young kids to make sure they are blooding players.

Will be other peoples chance soon.

SCaddict

Robinson's JS is not flash. Grundy will probably come back this week and Bird is playing well in the twos. Certainly would be a very risky play to bring him in this round before he is even on the bubble.

todd

another great article as always, i have been looking at some fallen premiums for my mids. Toby Greene caught my eye he is priced at $486,400 averaging 88 but a 3/5 round average of 105 and 100 looks good to me. in 2014 he averaged 83 for his first 8 games, and then he averaged 120 in his last 7 games. he has played 9 games and is averaging 5 more points than last year for his first games. do you think he can average of 95-100 for the rest of the season, it would fit my mids as he has a round 13 bye

Youngy

Feel that points will be stolen from him in the Gaints mid.

Adrian

Hi community who should i bring in for rockliff?
sidebottom, beams, dangerfield, pendulbury, shiel or j selwood?
Thoughts

James

Should I bring in Stef Martin/Sam Jacobs after they have had there bye in Round 12 or bring in Goldstein in Round 14?
If I wait for Goldstein it means I will only have one playing ruckman in round 13 in Bellchambers as I also have Mumford out.

Thoughts would be appreciated.

derek

you only need best 18 players during the bye rounds. They can be any position

James

Its my worst bye round with 11 out

SCaddict

So long as you can field them. Having 7 or 8 playing defenders or forwards in a given bye round is probably a waste unless you have some late outs or snot vests to deal with.

James

As for preference with ruckman?

SCaddict

Getting Goldy in this round would be my recommendation if you can swing it. The way Bellch is struggling he's barely worth keeping til his bye and Goldy could shoot back up towards high $500s if you wait til Rd14.

Otherwise Jacobs in Rd12 would be my next preferred option as Bellch at R2 for another whole month seems intolerable to me. I upgraded him to Blicavs a fortnight ago.

James

Only thing with that is I was thinking of keeping Bellchambers for the season as an R3 and F7 cover.
Was going to go Tarrant up to either Jacobs/Martin/Goldy.
Like the idea or not worth it?

SCaddict

Yes that's doable for sure James. Just get Bellch off your field sooner rather than later by any means possible would be my call.

James

Yep for sure, thanks for the help

@boltie_monster

thoughts on David Armitage as POD?

Liam

Way to much for me

Danners

Yeah probably too much, would prefer Mundy

Youngy

I'm a bit against Liam and Danners, I feel that Armitage is quiet a good pick for a POD, He is scoring very well and doesn't look to be slowing down.

Still think there are possibly some better options, but if you feeling like a shark move he's your guy

throttlefinger

Agree with the other gents. Ship has sailed…

Sean

would it be bad to hold Rockliff?

has hes bye soon so he might be able to come back a bit earlier

Josh

That’s what I’m doing

hedski

Im holding and building around him. Going t bring hodge in mid after his bye then swing him down back when rocky good t go.

SCaddict

It's a tricky call on whether to hold him especially if he ends up missing 4-6 weeks as per the official injury report.

It's possible he could come back early but he came back early last time and that didn't work out too well so I wouldn't blame the Lions for being extra cautious this time around even though the guy is a dead set warrior. Risk of another punctured lung is no laughing matter.

So it may come down to each coach's trade situation and how well placed they are for the byes. Having nearly $500K siting on the bench over the byes will hurt a lot of coaches not just in terms of rankings but also with league wins.

I'm comtemplating going Rocky to Wallis with designs of Wallis ultimately becoming my M9 for my SuperCoach finals end game. That's the plan anyway. I held both Sloane and Kelly but Rocky has to go for mine.

hedski

Definitely some good advice addict will be having a serious think. So hard when just traded in last week.

SCaddict

Yes I can certainly understand plenty of coaches holding him and hoping for the best. It's just such horrible timing when we are all so thin on numbers with the byes coming up.

Either way it could be one of those season defining calls so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next month.

throttlefinger

Yeah, think it's your situation. If you have good coverage and are doing well in your league, I'd keep. Save your trades for the big battle. If you're going for the big pot, him coming back and picking up where he left off right away is hoping a lot. Or if you're like me and you're crapping the bed in standings and leagues, you need to make a change. And that could be a nice POD against those who do keep him. Get you back in the swing of things.

At least that's what I'm hoping for…

hedski

yeah gonna hold. Normally bang but fair bit of that til now.

throttlefinger

Rock on, my man! (pun intended)

hedski

Ha cheers

Josh

Ohhh finally dex
I havnt read this article yet
But I’ve been wanting to ask jock and the community about montagna
Really looking forward to the read…
If you read this, do you Think cripps to montagna would be a good trade this week?
Thanks mate

Danners

Great stuff Dex! I remember last year, Montagna went well to start off then just dropped off. He would be a good POD selection though if I could fit him, but he has the round 12 bye

Nicholas

Great article just wondering what to do
Forward is gray, goddard, martin,, franklin, swan, clark, hogan, tarrant who to bring in and finish forward deledio or dahlhaus.
Also should i get rid of for him tarrant or clark

Nicholas

also who to bring in for miller boston or robinson

Billy

Bit long in the tooth

Jordan

I'm holding Rocky as I have decent bench cover. This week I'm going

Oxley to Hamling and Krak to Buddy as both Ox and Krak will start losing money and are both vest candidates. This will leave me with 130k in the bank.

Then next week I will look to Trade Clark down to a rookie and McIntosh to maybe Brodie Smith if fit.

Then in round 12, I will look to Trade Touk Miller to Lewis.

If all goes to plan, by round 13, I will be 5-6 off a full premo team with still roughly 15 trades left.

Good plan?

Youngy

Great Article Dex!

Understand why Montagna is a good pick, but probably won't be bringing him in anytime soon

Liam

Does Rocky has to go?
Was thinking of holding him.
Cheers

panther

got montagna last week going well so far also what are your thoughts on B.Ellis, M.Boyd, I.Smith

Danners

Ellis and Boyd are good options, not sure on Smith

Mitch

community could you shed some light on what i should do this week

backs – shaw, newnes, kolojasni, mcintosh, lever, oxley, n.brown, hamling
mids – fyfe, pendles, selwood, parker, beams, griffen, cripps, yolmen, rockliff, mckenzie, saad
rucks – goldy, maric, cox
forwards – gray, d.martin, swan, goddard, tarrant, clark, salem, krakour

22 trades left and 134k in bank
had a average week and dropped out to top 3%

cheers!

Bont

Was wondering if I could get some thoughts on my team and some trade options?
How long is Rocky out for? Does he need to go? And which rookies if any need to go?

Def: Shaw, Smith, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, K Mac [Kelly, Mckenzie]
Mid: Fyfe, Dangerfield, Selwood, K Jack, Neale, Rocky, Cripps, Cey [Krak, Dumont, Boekhorst]
Ruc: Maric, Blicavs [O'Brien]
Fwd: Gray, Swan, Martin, Goddard, Bont, Clark [Dale, H Goddard]

Trade options
1. Krak – Glenn
2. Rocky – Any Mid
3. Clark – Any forward
4. Oxley – Any forward
5. Hold

Have 18 trades and 318K in the bank. Not sure whether to hold or do some trades. Was planning on waiting and doing lots of trades in the byes but now not sure.'

Help would be great.
Thanks

SCaddict

Offical AFL injury report is estimating 4-6 weeks at this stage and I would expect the Lions to take a cautious approach this time so this sort of timeframe could prove to be the case in the end.

Rocky came back earlier than expected last time which you would have to say backfired in hind sight.

Danners

1. and 3. and get Dahlhaus

Mick

Agree

james

Got 750k to get a mid who do i get I've already got Fyfe, Priddis, Pendles, Jelwood, Parker, Heppell

hedski

Beams sidey kennedy Danger?

Buddy

Wines or Boak?

Mark

Im getting one of them for rockliff this week too. Leaning towards boak

Danners

Boak or Ebert

Jordan

Get rid of Tarrent or Krak first. Krak may be sub but maybe better in the long run?

dann

Rumours were he was close to being dropped before he was the sub last week.

Tophawk

Keeping Rocky. Period.

Going T.Miller to Dumont. Time to cash in some lambs.

Tossing up between Clarke-> Franklin or Oxley->Hodge.

Which option is better?

TOM

I'd say Hodge, only becuase Clark won't lose you money. Another option is Ox to Hamling and Clark to Buddy.

Rob

Are these good trades?

Krak to Glenn ( If he plays )

and

Tarrent to Steele ( if he plays )

leaving me with 450k leading me into the byes.

thought?

TOM

Not sure about anyone else, but this week I'll be having a very close look at the forgotten Sun, Nick Malceski. He could drop in price and could be a nice bargain.

SCaddict

Needs to show some form first before I would even consider him. His style of game was well protected at Sydney where he could run free and play that rebound running role with so many other defensive minded Swans around to support him.

But at the injury ravaged Suns he hasn't been able to deal with the added pressure of being 'The Man' to this point. Perhaps he can turn his season around but I'm a Doubting Thomas right now.

TOM

Agreed SC, but his role may change. Also Brodie Smith is looking a good trade in option soon when he's fit again.

Paul Walnuts

Fallen Premo Bargain – S.Pendlebury @ $574k for anyone that doesn't have him, down $94K from the starting price

SCaddict

Yes Smith was going great guns early in the season until he started copping those concussions. Hopefully he comes bouncing back after a fortnight off as he's definitely an upgrade target for Rd12/13 for many coaches including myself.

Derek

Shhhhhhhhhhh

Derek

I have Hodge, Smith, Malceckci coming into my team after their byes. Bang bang bang

Mark

Is krak to yeo a good trade he has a rd 13 bye and i can switch him to my defence

SCaddict

Yeo has been one of the form players of the past month and if his bye suits you and you can make good use of his DPP eligibility then just go for it I reckon.

My own personal preference is that I like Simpson, Murphy or Rance more for around the same coin only because their roles seem more assured to me but Yeo could prove to be an awesome pick for you.

Mark

Well im switching him from my mid to defence with mckenzie so its really convenient

SCaddict

Pull the trigger then I say.

Mac

I've decided to go Ox to Hamling and Krak to Buddy

Chicko

Excellent write up Dex! I’m at full premium in the mids although have Lewis, Sloane and Rocky to deal with but i like the POD nature of Joey. Top work again mate

throttlefinger

Top notch, Dex. The knee and playing for the Saints is worrisome for the coin. Definite elephantiasis of the plumes required.

Considering for the same price. Brandon Ellis. Averaging 114 in last 3 against good squads (Pies, PTA & Ess). Hasn't dipped below 90. Averaging 106 for the year with an seam popping SD of 12.8. Only in 1.2% of teams.

Risky yet my team has been drinking tea with whale dung so may take the plunge.

Danners

Yeah I have noticed Ellis the past few weeks as well, he does look like a great POD, might find his way into my team soon

nathan

Hey community

I’m pretty disappointed that rocky is out from 4-6 weeks

Just bought him in last week instead of franklin

So this week it comes down to trying to work out if I keep rocky or move him on?

I’m going to bring in Wallis who will be my m9 by completion of the bye rounds

So either way trade rocky for Wallis or trade Clark for Wallis

If I go rocky to Wallis I can also bring in franklin for krakour which finishes my forward line

Sounds easy to just flog rocky off but being him he might only miss this week and his bye

throttlefinger

Rocky will be gone a month plus. If he were coming back for sure R12, I'd say keep him. Re-injurying the same ribs so going to be out at least a month. I'd say follow your plan.

Derek

Hanley will be back this week or next to fill the gap

Flozza

They’ll be a little more conservative with Rocky now after confirming a multiple re-break, 4 wks min.. Hold him if you can afford to hold him otherwise if plenty of trades do the deed!

nathan

Thanks guys
Trading out seems to be the way because as you guys I feel he’ll miss at least 4 weeks to make sure he’s right this time

l. Gibbs

Who should I upgrade Oxley to, Enright?

And who should I downgrade Touk Miller for?

Gryffindor

Ox to Hodge if you have the $$
Enright has had a 73, 65 and 58 and only 3 tonnes this year, just not looking as consistent as he used to be

Wait for teams tomorrow night and get Glenn if he's playing, if not either hold or take a punt on Boston

Flozza

Dumont if picked, he didn’t let North down at all but will have to see how they view it..
Wait on Boston and Robinson(swans rate him and was very clean in slippery conditions)

Flozza

Ohh Oxley to hodge is a goody, for less coin look at laird(adel)

Dee

I like the Oxley to Enright trade… And I'm leaning towards Boston, better JS.

Dee

from what rank can you still win the BIG 50K pot from? I'm 2800+ is there still any hope from here or am I dreaming?

Rick Grimes

Only if you have some great PODs and a heap of luck. I’m now aiming for a top 1000 finish, which would be a personal best. I think if you aim for max points it’s gonna serve you well h2h anyway.

Stickman

Are Saad and Hogan potential keepers or should we just trade them when they hit max price?

nathan

I think it Comes to if you have a full premo side when you want to trade the out or not
I think hogan has to go
Saad on the other hand is 50/50 but I feel be can get more points out of other Backman

Donavan

I'll be keeping Saad, if he keeps scoring well.

Hogan will be one the last upgrades in my team

Mac

Ox to Hamling and Krak to Buddy are these good trades with 100k left in the bank?