Dex Files – Mark Blicavs
Round 8 is done and dusted. “SoapOnARope” did better this week – but the climb back up the ranks is going to be a long one. Thurlow did his job; albeit Oxley was the cow I moved on.
Don’t even get me started on Lumumba; I cannot wait to remove the shart stains he is consistently producing in my team, but I digress.
I remember Higgo pumping up budding Ruck prospect, Mark Blicavs, for the last few years; to me he didn’t look too appealing. Two seasons of averages in the 60’s just didn’t excite me. I was wondering what Higgo was on about. This year it has become glaringly obvious; Blicavs’ weapon is his tank. Mix that with his towering 6’6” frame and he’s a unique prospect.
Forward to 2015 NAB; Blicavs’ numbers didn’t really offer much difference to his 2014 numbers. He was marginally better in some of his stats, and worse in others. Even his SC output wasn’t anything to wet the bed over.
Enter season 2015 proper; Priced at $372k, Blicavs’ first 2 games were ok. He didn’t crack the ton, but he was showing promise. I wonder if anyone bought him in (At this point in the season, Blicavs was priced to average a measly 69.2 SC).
His next 6 games; 124, 97, 111, 107, 94, 134 = average 111. (Or $596k output)
Is this his new norm or is Blicavs an over performer?
I never thought I’d say this, but Mark Blicavs is nudging premium status; considering he is averaging 104.9 from 8 games. This season Blicavs has a low of 73 and a high of 134, including 4 tons. The average premium player will hit a ton around 60% of his games and if Blicavs keeps true to his current form – He’s a premium.
Premium – “of exceptional quality or greater value than others of its kind; Superior.”
Why is Blicavs scoring more?
If you have watched any of Geelong’s games, you’d notice Blicavs playing in the guts. He’s playing a “revolutionary” midfield third-man-up role for them. Stanley or Clark ruck and he often enters as third man – tapping to one of their Mids. This is turning out to be a lucrative scoring role for him.
If you look at his stats you’ll see almost all of his numbers are increased, some significantly:
Being third man into a ruck contest; the result (more often than not,) will be an effective hit out – and with these new rules, more points are accessible. Mix this with the increased mid role and his ability to drift back and intercept the ball – Blicavs could be here to stay as a lucrative Supercoach scorer.
The best part of Blicavs’ SC ability – his scoring doesn’t rely on effective disposal. Look at his round 3 game for example. Blicavs had the ball 21 times at 52.4% efficiency and only marked the ball twice, yet he scores 124. Why?
Blicavs was on 63 SC at 3QT and finished the game on 124. This is the case more often than not. Blicavs is an elite runner and has a massive tank, so when most players are tiring – Blicavs keeps going.
In that game in particular, Blicavs kicked a clutch goal – which gave him a nice boost – but it was his ability to float back and intercept the ball, which gave him the added ability to score.
For those of you with TBC in your side – like Higgo has suggested – he’d be the perfect R2. He’s consistent, runs forever and tends to get the Hit-outs we want (to advantage) more often than not.
For me, Blicavs is on the watch list. Right now – at $509k – I feel he is priced at his ceiling. If Nic Nat keeps up his ordinary showing – and if Blicavs maintains this form – I’m not against bringing him in post byes, when I’m full premium.
Even at this price, Blicavs is still a valid option. The safer option is obviously a Goldstein or Maric over him – but his current form and potential PoD value could do you well.