Dex Files – Mark Blicavs
Round 8 is done and dusted. “SoapOnARope” did better this week – but the climb back up the ranks is going to be a long one. Thurlow did his job; albeit Oxley was the cow I moved on.
Don’t even get me started on Lumumba; I cannot wait to remove the shart stains he is consistently producing in my team, but I digress.
I remember Higgo pumping up budding Ruck prospect, Mark Blicavs, for the last few years; to me he didn’t look too appealing. Two seasons of averages in the 60’s just didn’t excite me. I was wondering what Higgo was on about. This year it has become glaringly obvious; Blicavs’ weapon is his tank. Mix that with his towering 6’6” frame and he’s a unique prospect.
Forward to 2015 NAB; Blicavs’ numbers didn’t really offer much difference to his 2014 numbers. He was marginally better in some of his stats, and worse in others. Even his SC output wasn’t anything to wet the bed over.
Enter season 2015 proper; Priced at $372k, Blicavs’ first 2 games were ok. He didn’t crack the ton, but he was showing promise. I wonder if anyone bought him in (At this point in the season, Blicavs was priced to average a measly 69.2 SC).
His next 6 games; 124, 97, 111, 107, 94, 134 = average 111. (Or $596k output)
Is this his new norm or is Blicavs an over performer?
I never thought I’d say this, but Mark Blicavs is nudging premium status; considering he is averaging 104.9 from 8 games. This season Blicavs has a low of 73 and a high of 134, including 4 tons. The average premium player will hit a ton around 60% of his games and if Blicavs keeps true to his current form – He’s a premium.
Premium – “of exceptional quality or greater value than others of its kind; Superior.”
Why is Blicavs scoring more?
If you have watched any of Geelong’s games, you’d notice Blicavs playing in the guts. He’s playing a “revolutionary” midfield third-man-up role for them. Stanley or Clark ruck and he often enters as third man – tapping to one of their Mids. This is turning out to be a lucrative scoring role for him.
If you look at his stats you’ll see almost all of his numbers are increased, some significantly:
Being third man into a ruck contest; the result (more often than not,) will be an effective hit out – and with these new rules, more points are accessible. Mix this with the increased mid role and his ability to drift back and intercept the ball – Blicavs could be here to stay as a lucrative Supercoach scorer.
The best part of Blicavs’ SC ability – his scoring doesn’t rely on effective disposal. Look at his round 3 game for example. Blicavs had the ball 21 times at 52.4% efficiency and only marked the ball twice, yet he scores 124. Why?
Blicavs was on 63 SC at 3QT and finished the game on 124. This is the case more often than not. Blicavs is an elite runner and has a massive tank, so when most players are tiring – Blicavs keeps going.
In that game in particular, Blicavs kicked a clutch goal – which gave him a nice boost – but it was his ability to float back and intercept the ball, which gave him the added ability to score.
For those of you with TBC in your side – like Higgo has suggested – he’d be the perfect R2. He’s consistent, runs forever and tends to get the Hit-outs we want (to advantage) more often than not.
For me, Blicavs is on the watch list. Right now – at $509k – I feel he is priced at his ceiling. If Nic Nat keeps up his ordinary showing – and if Blicavs maintains this form – I’m not against bringing him in post byes, when I’m full premium.
Even at this price, Blicavs is still a valid option. The safer option is obviously a Goldstein or Maric over him – but his current form and potential PoD value could do you well.
Decisions….
Dex, great analysis as always, his scoring is unbelievable at the moment. It will be interesting to see if he maintains the rage, personally I think he can.
I don't know what's better, your supercoach ranking or your team name. Keep up the good work General and hope you get the 50k!
Cheers Gryffindor.
Btw apologies to all those with Juddy, my brother "Knee" apparently keeping him out this week.
I upgraded TBC to Blicavs last week and am obviously pleased with the immediate results.
However I have to temper that enthusiasm a tad as he was snacking on the dismal Blues.
I still think he's a good chance at averaging just over a ton for the season which makes him a very legit premo ruck option. Definitely couldn't be entertained in the midfield though as those 8 spots are too precious for mine.
As Dex mentioned, he gets more points as the game goes and players tire. What's stopping (apart from injury) him scoring more as the season goes on and players tire… He understands the game and knows where to run, when to take that intercept mark, great pick for mine.
It could be a straight swap from naitanui post byes
Though Stef Martin looks more promising at the moment
If Leuenberger gets dropped for good i'm bringing in Stef in a heart beat cos he'll pump out 120s every week but i just don't like Luey being their in case Leppa decides to give him some more ruck time and then Stef's output will drop significantly
i agree. I must have lone wolf rucks in my team.
He has been pumping out 120's even with the Berger in the team
Looking good for me
Wait a week and pick him up
Ye agreed I think that Martin is a better option than Blicavs
Great review Dex
Definitely been impressive this season and value for his current price..
Just dosn't fit my structure. Don't think I can justify him in Mid over another Premium Mid, and I've got Goldy and Mumford as set and forget rucks.
Dec, another brilliant piece mate backed by stats. Like it. I started with Maric and Goldy so no room for Blicavs but he has been a revelation that is for sure.
Same combo as me Chicko – if I had a weak second ruck I’d definitely consider him!
Nice one Dex. Higgo will be seriously aroused by this article. If he keeps improving & keeps his ruck status he could be just about first picked next year. Like you Dex I might entertain it at full premium. Others to move on first.
How many players should be looking to have not playing in each bye going into round 11? should they all be as equal as possible to more players missing in rd 13, 12 or 11?
It doesn't need to be equal but you should have at least 18 playing round 11, then using trading strategy trade into round 11 players in round 12 and round 12 players in 13 as required to get to full premo.
try to have 10 each round and 12 max so you don't cop a donut. And if you have lots in rd 12/13 not playing bring in players after their bye so you have at least 18 on field
I have 8,12,10 not paying but am bringing in Jordan Lewis and Brodie Smith after their rd 11 so i definitely won't get a donut
Take into consideration that most teams will have some donut rookies, so 12 players out in a bye is a lot and will most likely leave you with a couple of onfield donuts.
oh how life would be different if i went him over TBC. 🙁
We can dream can't we, i finally pulled the thorn that is TBC out of my ass for Sam Jacobs last week and enjoyed a 118 compared to 40 something from TBC. Was worth copping Jacobs rd 11 bye for sure
same here. My week has been so much better for it.
Atleast you didn't start with Lycett
gday community just wondering what i can do with my team i have 7,300 in the bank was thinking of downgrading tarrent to get some cash for an upgrade
Def:shaw, johnson, saad, lumumba, kmac, dmac (h.andrews, s.hurley)
Mids:fyfe, pendles, priddis, heppell, parker, watson, selwood, t.miller (CEY, c.smith, lambert)
rucks:goldy, maric (read)
forward:gray, martin, swan, zieball, tom mitchell, clark (tarrent, lonie)
Depending on the amount of trades you have, I’d downgrade Tarrant and upgrade Kmac to Gibson (or a similar prices defender)
I'd recommend holding unless Josh Glenn or Hugh Goddard are named, if Glenn is chuck lambert in your fwd and bring him in for tarrant
Tarrent has a Round 13 bye, nice
Hi lads and ladesses
I held Minson as I’ve had TBC as cover.
I’m finally moving minson on, need advice on whether to turn Minson into Blicavs (1 trade needed) or into one of Mumford or Maric (2 trades needed).
Any advice is greatly appreciated.
This is tough. Personally i can see teams tagging Blicavs if he keeps up this output so i'd use 2 if the downgrade for the 2nd is worth it such as Glenn who will get serious midfield time at GCS with prestia gone as well as the rest of their mids
Thanks Bruds. Tough choice
I actually reckon he's a very difficult player to tag given his unique physical attributes that let's him play all over the ground and run all day long so not sure if that would be reasoning I'd use not to pick him.
Not saying oppositions won't pay him more attention only that his game is pretty tough to shut down.
Both Mummy and the Mullett have had their injury issues to deal with in recent years so I'd probably give the Blitz the edge in the durability stakes too.
Glenn won't be in for at least another week.
You should probably use 2 trades to bring in Mummy but that is just my opinion I think he is more consistent
Should I trade Tarrant to Dale to make some cash or should I just hold him?
I'd say hold, Dale could get dropped any week for macrae or hrovat and not make you anthing, i can see tarrant not losing too much cash before his bye so offload him then
Depends if you want to upgrade in another area this week, if not then hold.
Would Naitanui to Blivcavs be a good near straight swap/upgrade option ?
I've got nic nat as well and the 103 on the weekend showed hope so wait till his bye and make a call then
And he managed to score that without taking a single mark. Imagine what he could do if he regains form.
C’mon Nik Nat! Make us proud. Make us happy!
Agreed gotta hold him to atleast the byes
I'd persist with Nic Nat at least until his bye but if it's looking like at that point he won't average at least 95 plus for the remainder of the season then it's certainly something you could consider if you haven't gone too hard on the trades already.
Top 8 mids at the seasons end?
My thoughts
Locks: Fyfe, Pendles, Rocliff, Lewis, Parker
Smokeys:Selwood, Beams, Priddis or JPK?
fyfe, mundy, kennedy, priddis, pendles, gray, danger, beams
Yes I would agree with this although Priddis is rapidly approaching lock status too and Parker and JPK could be interchangeable.
Of course Gaz may need to be in everyone's midfield come Supercoach finals time but we will just have place a mental note there for the time being.
Sidebum would also be circling the periphery there and will we get a refreshed and hungry Sloanedog after his bye?
Do you think Sloane will get it done? As a top 8
He's an elite player if you ask me. Has just had a horrible run with 3 heavy knocks in 3 straight weeks running that's see him and his fantasy owners in their current predicament.
But if he comes back swinging then given his pricing you'd be crazy not to at least consider him for your M8. I'm holding him whilst he recovers with this hope in mind. We'll just have and wait and see how it all pans out.
The Crows seem reasonably confident he'll be back no later than Rd12.
fyfe, pendles, selwood, rockliff, priddis, JPK, mundy, hannebery
Ablett, Fyfe, Pendlebury, JPK, Priddis, Selwood, Rocky, Sidebottom (Griffin as a Smokey)
Fyfe, Pendles, Lewis, Danger, JPK, Priddis. Unsure on the other 2 at present.
Why isn’t anyone putting Gaz in?
Don’t exactly know when he’ll be back. Or HOW he’ll be back. If he’s still skirting packs and protecting that shoulder like Rd1&2, then you don’t need to waste a trade.
agreed when Gaz comes back he should be a lock after a couple of weeks once his price goes down a bit, if he scores well.
Fyfe, Pendlebury, Ablett (if he comes back), Priddis, Selwood, Gray, Rockliff, JPK.
Last couple were tough choices. Hannebery can't handle the tag, I reckon Mundy will be up there but not right up the top
No-one thinking Shiel? Pretty consistent. The kid is going to be an absolute star, I watched him a few times and there's room for improvement but he's still a gun. Could be top 8 this year
The key word there is "kid".
thoights on my team and what i should be doing:
shaw, hurley, johnson, simpson, oxley, hibberd (saad, andrews)
priddis, mundy, steven, dnager, heppell, ward, cotchin, rockliff (mckensie, glenn, lambert)
mumford, maric
Gray, swan, goddard, tex, tarrant, clark (dale, karnezzis)
one of the better teams I've seen, what is your ranking?
I think you might regret not having pendlebury or fyfe in your team, unless you have some trades to spare and planning an upgrade later. Need to make room for Gaz when he come back as well.
996, yeah was thinking upgrading cotchin or heppell to one of them later in the year, gone unique and it has paid off although i have 15 trades remaining
Great article Dex, Much musings and trips to the fridge created over this piece,
I would love to put Griffin on the path to the Shed but Rnd 13 bye shared with Blicavs saved him.
It's a conundrum Do you jump on or do you watch the boat sail away….Again…. Hmmmm !
I'm still no closer to a play… So I went safe…. Jelwood LOL nawh!! I cant say that and lie straight in bed. One trade Miller to Rocky.
Now that I re read the article you do have a way of SC Cursing players mentioned in your pieces !!!
You didn't talk about Rockcliff on this forum ??? Did You??
Will D beams be a top 8 mid
with rockliff back i think his output will slightly decrease but will be a top 15 mid and most likely top 10
I'd look at players in more successful teams first eg sydney/freo mids, Lewis or sidebum for a POD
Pretty confident he will be. And Rocky's presence wont effect is scoring, if anything it will increase his scroing ability. He will play his normal outside role with a bit of inside work rather than purely being the inside man at Brisbane which doesnt suit his game as much. Averaged 115 and 122 in his two full seasons as a Premo. He's a gun!
He could be, scored a 100 with Rocketman in the team
Somehow i'm ranked a tick over 4000 with a backline of Shaw, Pittard, Saad, Oxley, Ibbotson, Newnes, Kmac, Lever
I'm waiting till the byes to bring in premos.
Community who do you think will be top 5 defenders after the byes to bring in?
Hodge, Gibson
Malceski, Simpson, mcgoven
Thoughts on my team? $114,000 in the bank. Not sure wether to bring in Rocky or someone like Lewis or Sidebum
Shaw, Gibson, Simpson, Newnes, Oxley, Saad, McIntosh, Lever
Fyfe, JPK, Beams, Selwood, Parker, Treloar, Cripps, CEY, Steele, Miller, McKenzie
Goldstein, Maric, Read
Gray, Martin, Swan, Clark, Hogan, Tarrent, Krak, Lonie
Thoughts?
Just keep it simple with Cripps –> Rocky I reckon. No other moves required this week.
Would agree with SCaddict although would try to offload Lonie. Has a high BE and he's not going to earn you any more money. Best to cull when the culling is good. Dearth of options but if you see one worth the risk, take it. Leaning toward Dale but depends on selection. Will sit on bench regardless.
Top notch as always, Dex. Blicavs is a wish player…as in "wish I would've made my R2." Have Goldie/Mummy so can't complain but the loot saved would've made things much easier off the gun.
Speaking of, who would you put in your "wish I would've" team, Dex?
Neale, Shiel and anyone else that rhymes with them…
Haha.
Steele (Sidebum)
I tell you who I wish I didn't start with… Griffin!
I'll add Bellchambers at R2 as wishing I hadn't started with.
Steven @ 455k. Has him all preseason and went to Wines
I went to beers first and then ended up going to spirits.
Thoughts on my team pleasee 🙂
Backs: Shaw, Docherty, gibson, newnes, Saad, mcintosh
Mids: Fyfe, pendlebury, shiel, keneddy, dangerfield, selwood, lewis, rockliff
Rucks: Goldstein, jacobs
Forwards: Gray, martin, goddard, franklin, T mitchell, Tarrant
Thoughts please !!
6 of my 8 bench players play ! And i have 17 trades left 🙂
Great team. I'd be holding trades at the moment until a decent downgrade for Tarrant appears.
The wife’s pretty happy with her Lycett to Blicavs after round 2!
That was a smart move
Nice article Dex, I had him and Fyfe in one of my preseason teams but somehow ended up with neither.
Words cannot explain how much that little memory pains me….
Seriously considering him as my F6 now.
This would give me the ruck cover I've never had and hopefully100pts a week, is this a good plan?
Is anyone else considering this as a post byes plan?
Unfortunately Blicavs is RUCK/MID only Ranger. I think he'd be in nearly every team by now if he had FWD eligibility given the paucity of ruck cover options there.
Oops! My bad.
Wishful thinking…
Michael Hurley ??????
Dud. But I have “pityitradedinthattard”
Interesting pick, if you can afford him, go for it as a POD
Too risky for my team but if you feel he is a good pick go for it.
To risky for me, but if you like him trust your gut
I am not happy with my forward line.
140K in the kitty and 20 trades in the bank.
Here is my line up,
DEF: H.Shaw, J Newnes, A.Saad, S.Docherty, J.Mc Govern, A.Oxley. (Emc- N.Brown, K. Mc Intosh)
MID: N.Fyfe, S.Pendlebury, L.Parker, T.Rockliff, B.Goddard, D. Martin, A.Vandenberg, C.Ellis Yolmen (Emc- E.Mc Kenzie, T.Miller, N. Krakouer)
RUC: T.Goldstein, I.Maric (Emc T.Reid)
FWD: R.Gray, T.Walker, M.Bontempelli, D.Swan, J.Hogan, M.Clarke (Emc- R.Tarrant, T. Bellchambers)
Feedback much appreciated
You have too much cash sitting on your fwd bench. Trade out 2 of Hogan, Clarke, tarrant or bell chambers. ( Leave him if you want ruck cover ).Both Goddard and Martin moved forward will make it look better. I would then bring in premo mid, best you can depending on bye structure, and rookie, then play miller on field. Should end up with some cash left over. Good luck.
McIntosh-Menadue/Dawson/Dumont (swing McKenzie) and Tarrant to Mid Premo (Shiel?) (Swing Martin/Goddard). Too many fwd premos in midfield
Put Goddard and Martin in your forward line and I'd be pretty happy.
Overall its not a bad team, interested to know how many trades you have left at some point in the coming week I would recommend that you swing Goddard or Martin and try and bring in a reliable mid premo maybe Kennedy or even Sidebum who is a bit of a point of difference.
Be wary of who you are trading in and when there buys are.
Anyone know Touk Miller's Breakeven?
Who is better to trade out of my team now out of Miller and Tarrant?
Miller's BE = 62 and his average = 73
Tarrant BE = 79 and his average = 83
Cheers,
Raj
Since Hansen came back in, until last week, Tarrant consistently scored 78. Trade.
Yeah when everyone was picking up tarrant I knew his big scores was because he was playing hansens role while he was out. Didn’t realise he was back in, will be trading tarrant out this week
depends on you bye structures, miller has rnd 12 bye Tarrant handy with rnd 13
This is a hard decision, but id probably trade out Miller because Tarrant has a handy rd 13 bye
Who should I downgrade TBC out for?
Not too many good options. If you’re not keen on Dale’s job security which is pretty suspect you could take a risk and go down to Steele or H.Goddard and hope they play soon. If they don’t you might suffer in the byes but will open up dpp links.
Im assuming he is in your fwd line if so there are really no good options, but if you had to downgrade him Dale would be your best option.
who to play this week on the field
m clark or r Tarrant
CEY or T miller
clark and miller I think best options
Tarrant and Miller.
rookies: menadue, amon, dumont, dale, dawson, mcbean, nothing or quit supercoach?
Don't stress mate, rooks always come along
but i need one this week to grab rocky … thinking of taking a punt on one … possibly amon (has been sub every game but may get a go given their poor form). glenn next week hopefully
M.Dick – Def/Mid – will probably come in for Judd & Gibbs who will be out – just another option
Cripps to Biggs, Miller to Pendles. Gives me a midfield of: Fyfe, Pendles, Priddis, JPK, Dangerfield, Selwood, Rockliff and Griffen. Thoughts?
I would wait a week before jumping on Biggs, if you desperately need someone now, probably look at Dawson/Dumont/Menadue otherwise Pendles is a vital cog in any Supercoach team
Get rid of Griffen. He's a spud.
Consider Amon from Port as well. Huge sub risk, but for downgrade purposes stick him on your bench and he could be a slow burn and play often with Cornes now exiting
Nice trades but I would wait a week on Biggs since he has only played one game and he is 200k which is a little high for a rookie.
great work dex wish I stuck with him as was in my preseason plans. and love the feed back from community also im rolling into byes with current structure and have planned 2-3 swift moves after the byes let me know what you think
backs: tmac , houli , shaw, Oxley , saad , Kelly (dmac and lever)
mids: fyfe , pendles , neale , priddis , kennedy , beams , danger , rockliff (cey , Menadue , steele)
rucks: goldy , maric (Obrien)
forwards: gray , martin , swan , bont , taz , clark (lambert, krakour)
currently ranked 391 and hoping this week is big for me
Great work, hope you can keep moving up the ranks. Wondering how many trades you have left?
thanks mate sitting with 19 trades left in the kitty and 132k in bank
Cripps or Miller out for Rocky?
Miller. Look at sun's run to the bye. Ugly!
Neither of them for rocky mate, I seriously doubt that he or selwood will be a top 12 mid at this seasons end.
Should I keep holding Sloane?
yeah another week or 2 cant hurt
Nah mate you can let go now.
How many trades should we have in the pocket after the byes?
Is it just me or is Buddy some what of a no brainer if you can get him in this week?
Excellent write up Dex. I traded him in for Luey after round 1 based on confusion about ruck output, his 12 contested pozzies in round 1, his obvious job security and, his NAB scores. During NAB he only had the one game where he scored at less than 1.1 ppm
However, having him is not necessarily the bonus you might think it to be ( apart from the cash & scores) I have the weekly dilemma of do I trade him out now for mummy or sauce or, do I trade a rookie mid and put Blic in the middle.
Unfortunately I have TBC as R2. What are your views on Jake spencer ruck from melb?? Only 344K ave91 last game 115.
thinking of trading TBC for him, using Spencer to rise in value up to his round13 bye, then trade him for a premo like Jacobs, Mumford or Maric who I think will fall in price again over the next 4-5 weeks. I just cant see TBC going up, in fact is likely to start bleeding cash.
Is this sound SC strategy? what do you all think?