Dex Files – Jack Ziebell
Community, I’m not going to lie. I had seriously considered throwing in the towel after this week. Sloane, Lewis, Ellis-Yolmen & Saad were all out. Griffin, Selwood & Pendles were Crap – Cripps a late out gave me a doughnut. Lumumba is crap.
McIntosh, McKenzie & Brown were on-field. I had Salem on-field over Clark. I lost all 10 of my head-to-head matchups this week and dropped down to 3,163 overall with a paltry 1989.
I will not give up. I will not falter. I may have been kicked in the nuts – my team’s proverbial testicles were ruptured; but like Kelly – we will rise from the ashes. He didn’t moan, he didn’t whine; he laughed – He took it in his stride. That’s what I’ll do. I’ll get back on the horse and trade my way to success.
I don’t want to say it, but Jack Ziebell presents us with some value this week community.
Back-to-back tons and a 3 week average of 102.3 SC – for a $434k FWD/MID – is something to notice.
Ziebell started 2015 as expected an 82 in round 1, but round 2 saw a monolith score of 150 to average of 116 from the first 2 – Inconsistent.
Round 3 wasn’t expected.
Nine minutes into round 3, Ziebell, (as he usually does) barrelled – chest first – into Ollie Wine’s hips in a bad attempt to spoil; injuring himself in the process. It looked bad. Ziebell was hunched over coughing up blood – he was subsequently subbed out of the game and rushed to hospital, where they feared he had ruptured a lung. It turned out Ziebell had just burst some capillaries in his lungs and was cleared to play next game.
That score of 4 stayed in his 3 round average and kept his price low. His following 2 games were normal, or what we expect from Ziebell, with scores of 80 and 89 respectively. This could be attributed to his recovery from the bruised lungs. It could be coincidental.
For Ziebell’s last two games – he’s broken the ton in both. What has my interest piqued is the fact he scored his latest ton from 29 disposals, at an efficiency of 55% and only 1 tackle. The week prior he only had 16 disposals at 68% efficiency and 9 tackles. This shows – while his numbers can be inconsistent – he can still break the ton without the disposals behind him.
If we remove his injury-affected 4 from his average, he’s tracking at a respectable 103.2 SC, with no sub 80 scores. From a $434k forward, that’s not bad.
Ziebell is averaging 21.5 disposals at 60% Disposal efficiency, of which half are contested. The best part – 78% of his disposals have been kicks. He’s averaging a shade under 6 tackles a game and 5.2 clearances. These are all numbers that indicate a midfield role. Juicy.
(All averages stated are removing the game where he was subbed out with injury.)
See the stats here:
Now, I’m not going to say he will average 110 from here on out and be a steal – the opposite in fact. I think he will be a major risk, especially at his asking price. He’s going to score 80’s, but he’s also going to score you 150’s. Put simply – Ziebell is a flat-track-bully.
His three tons in 2015 have come against Lions (150), Richmond (102) and Essendon (116). His next 4 games aren’t very appealing though; Fremantle (A), Collingwood (H), West Coast (H) & Sydney (H). I’d bank one ton out of that.
What really makes me want to pick him is his finals run. (Remember, finals are ran from rounds’ 19-22 this year.) He plays Melbourne (H), St. Kilda (H), Fremantle (H) and Western Bulldogs (H). Bank 3 out of 4 tons there, possibly some monster scores in there as well.
North Melbourne, they’re a hard beast to predict. They switch on one week and go missing the next – so take the aforementioned with a grain of salt. I will be seriously considering Ziebell for his ability to go large, and the hope he will increase his floor. If he still scores his large scores, and betters his crap scores from the 40-50’s to 60-70’s, he’ll go a long way to premium status. I think he’ll push a 90-95 average from here on out.