Dex Files – Jack Ziebell
Community, I’m not going to lie. I had seriously considered throwing in the towel after this week. Sloane, Lewis, Ellis-Yolmen & Saad were all out. Griffin, Selwood & Pendles were Crap – Cripps a late out gave me a doughnut. Lumumba is crap.
McIntosh, McKenzie & Brown were on-field. I had Salem on-field over Clark. I lost all 10 of my head-to-head matchups this week and dropped down to 3,163 overall with a paltry 1989.
I will not give up. I will not falter. I may have been kicked in the nuts – my team’s proverbial testicles were ruptured; but like Kelly – we will rise from the ashes. He didn’t moan, he didn’t whine; he laughed – He took it in his stride. That’s what I’ll do. I’ll get back on the horse and trade my way to success.
I don’t want to say it, but Jack Ziebell presents us with some value this week community.
Back-to-back tons and a 3 week average of 102.3 SC – for a $434k FWD/MID – is something to notice.
Ziebell started 2015 as expected an 82 in round 1, but round 2 saw a monolith score of 150 to average of 116 from the first 2 – Inconsistent.
Round 3 wasn’t expected.
Nine minutes into round 3, Ziebell, (as he usually does) barrelled – chest first – into Ollie Wine’s hips in a bad attempt to spoil; injuring himself in the process. It looked bad. Ziebell was hunched over coughing up blood – he was subsequently subbed out of the game and rushed to hospital, where they feared he had ruptured a lung. It turned out Ziebell had just burst some capillaries in his lungs and was cleared to play next game.
That score of 4 stayed in his 3 round average and kept his price low. His following 2 games were normal, or what we expect from Ziebell, with scores of 80 and 89 respectively. This could be attributed to his recovery from the bruised lungs. It could be coincidental.
For Ziebell’s last two games – he’s broken the ton in both. What has my interest piqued is the fact he scored his latest ton from 29 disposals, at an efficiency of 55% and only 1 tackle. The week prior he only had 16 disposals at 68% efficiency and 9 tackles. This shows – while his numbers can be inconsistent – he can still break the ton without the disposals behind him.
If we remove his injury-affected 4 from his average, he’s tracking at a respectable 103.2 SC, with no sub 80 scores. From a $434k forward, that’s not bad.
Ziebell is averaging 21.5 disposals at 60% Disposal efficiency, of which half are contested. The best part – 78% of his disposals have been kicks. He’s averaging a shade under 6 tackles a game and 5.2 clearances. These are all numbers that indicate a midfield role. Juicy.
(All averages stated are removing the game where he was subbed out with injury.)
See the stats here:
Now, I’m not going to say he will average 110 from here on out and be a steal – the opposite in fact. I think he will be a major risk, especially at his asking price. He’s going to score 80’s, but he’s also going to score you 150’s. Put simply – Ziebell is a flat-track-bully.
His three tons in 2015 have come against Lions (150), Richmond (102) and Essendon (116). His next 4 games aren’t very appealing though; Fremantle (A), Collingwood (H), West Coast (H) & Sydney (H). I’d bank one ton out of that.
What really makes me want to pick him is his finals run. (Remember, finals are ran from rounds’ 19-22 this year.) He plays Melbourne (H), St. Kilda (H), Fremantle (H) and Western Bulldogs (H). Bank 3 out of 4 tons there, possibly some monster scores in there as well.
North Melbourne, they’re a hard beast to predict. They switch on one week and go missing the next – so take the aforementioned with a grain of salt. I will be seriously considering Ziebell for his ability to go large, and the hope he will increase his floor. If he still scores his large scores, and betters his crap scores from the 40-50’s to 60-70’s, he’ll go a long way to premium status. I think he’ll push a 90-95 average from here on out.
We both copped the same carnage last round Dex. Worst week of SC I think I’ve ever had. But we move on. Have been thinking about Ziebell. Not ruling it out but probably other priorities. Top notch as always mate.
Cheers Pie.
I always try to write up on an alternate player. It would be boring if I endorsed the obvious pick of the week 🙂
Very tasty. Maybe a Salem upgrade
Not convinced on Ziebell as he hasn't averaged over 95k for his career, but perhaps an option as F6 going forward and agree re good finals run and his price is hard to ignore. Feel like from a forwards point of view it's Ziebell vs Titch this week – both are risky picks.
From a midfield perspective, hard to put Ziebell ahead of guys like Kieren Jack who has dropped in price significantly, but has proven scoring potential and may even be a better/safer pick than Mitchell
Agree Spock.
Titch and Ziebs both risky – Titch has more upside, but Ziebs can go large.
I wouldn't put Ziebell in mids – he's up here as a forward option.
Hi dex, thanks again for a player really worth pondering over. i could imagine bringing him in and out of my team ten times before i settled on a decision. i love to watch him play and if he could step up the consistency would be a beast of the game. whether he is supercoach relevant i'm not sure. however you touched on something i was pondering recently, the finals. players like Ziebell who have a good supercoach finals draw get an extra tick in the positive side.
Cheers Liam.
Yes, not all of us play for rank – and by the end, most of us go for the flag.
That's when these types will be invaluable. He's definitely not a safe pick, but may reward those of us that like a good risk.
Are you sure Jelly did not moan, groan and cry even just a little bit?? Other wise interesting advice and Ziebell is one to watch!
Yeah, i saw the Cat's interview vid – he took it in his stride and had a chuckle over it (when he realised it wasn't serious)
Got him last week even cheaper think it was 390k…..?
Sorry 2 weeks ago
Good write up Dex ! Thoughts on thurlow ?
I took Tmitch last week to cover Hogan….it paid off huge won all 10 games and scored 2287.
Ive considered Ziebell this week but I'm going to pass for now! Maybe pick him up during or after byes???
i think you can only have one of either The Bont, Ziebell or TMitchell
Why only one of either? I have Tmitch and Bont.
I have Ziebell and t Mitch, bought Ziebell as a speculative f6 or f7 loophole at worst @390k 2 weeks ago, let me get a rookie off the ground and couldn’t be happier, by the end of season hoping him and t Mitch will share the f6 spot.
i agree … i have bont so cant grab titch except via a sideways … other priorities this week
I saw the news today that Jack Sinclair had to go back onto the Saints Rookie list because Seb Ross has overcome his injury that put him on the long term injury list that gave Jack the promotion.
I was thinking about the other rookie promoted players ie: Krak. Who did he replace in the regular squad.
Can anyone else remember other promoted rookies this year and the people they replaced.
Krak is the only one I know of??? I have him to.
Frampton is who Krak replaced
I thought there were more.
I guess I had lambert, and then he got injured
thoughts on Docherty? Underpriced
Probably a decent buy for the money but it's hard to get too excited about any Blues players given they are getting completely annihilated each weekend. Have the Cats and Swans coming up too so it's not going to get any easier for them any time soon.
Vandenberg to Rocky
or
N Brown to premium defender
Tough choice if you have to play Brown on field. However if Brown is only a bench player for you then definitely go Vandy to Rocky.
There is a chance that Saad is back this week which may make the call more straight forward. I'm hoping to get either Pops Kelly and/or Saad back this week so I can get Brown off my field too.
We have to get rocky on board Tom, although you should be able to pick him up next week similarly priced so trade to your needs this week, just make sure you have a path to get him next week.
snagged him at a bargain last week instead of titch up forward… will be very interesting to see how he goes. Ripper write up 🙂
Those wondering about CEY ….sounds like he's going to play this weekend?
Awesome Dex, always finding tasty temptations with which to offer the community. Quality write up mate. Like you, would want to see a lot more from Jack. I will watch for now. Can't afford the risk with him and Titch in my forward line.
Need some help, looking to upgrade Oxley, best back for around 420K / 430K?
brodie smith is a good pick
Smith is a good pick but not this week the word is he aint going to play jasper pittard chould be a opiton for this week if smith doesnt get named
Yeah wait at least 2 games after Brodie returns, will likely be around $330k – very tasty option after byes (although somewhat risky with 2 concussions already this year)
Yeo if you are feeling adventurous
I wouldnt trade until you are certain with a defender. Only defender I see with 100% certainty with is Tom McDonald but you can risk it for the biscuit.
I’m not 100% on any defenders but you have to take a risk there at some stage. Can’t go all year with Oxley, Saad and McIntosh taking D5/D6
I'd hold this week with the Pies playing GC. Could be a lot of Pies that score well this round if recent history is any guide.
Plus proven quality in Kade Simpson should fall within your price range if you wait that extra week.
Hey Community I have a dilemma this week with only scoring a 2,101 last week and I currently have 21 trades.
Here is my team, not sure what to do this week.
Back- Shaw, Taylor, Oxley, Ibbotson, McIntosh, McKenzie (Lever, Hamling)
Mid- Fyfe, Priddis, Selwood, Griffen, Lewis, Miller, Cripps, Krakouer (Vandenberg, Saad, Ellis-Yolmen)
Ruck- Goldstein, Naitanui ( Read)
Forward- Swan, Goddard, Gray, Martin, Franklin, Tarrant ( Hogan, Clark)
I am currently ranked 8,879 and would really appreciate any advice what to do this week.
Was thinking of Rocky or Parker this week but I only have a lousy $150,300 in the bank.
Thinking of going vand to rockliffe and oxley to pearce to generate some cash.This leaves me with 160k for double upgrade next week. Not sure if I need to bring in Titch however. If glann is played ill probs trade oxley for him with dpp.
Thanks for your help.
mate this week im doing the same vanderberg to rocky its a no brainer rocky is not going to be this cheap for long plus chould be a temporary pod to improve your overall rank as alot of coaches are going.to hold off another week or two but we need to take risks, we can smell the monsters scores coming both of your trades are valid back your self and your gut feeling last week i had a feeling about matt priddis he wasn’t getting any cheper had sloane traded him out for priddis clawed back about 1250 places overall only 5.3% coaches have him and no ones getting him in now his too expensive went with my gut. The other option you may consider is boomer harvey ill be stuffing him in next week hoping he doesnt decide to pull the monster out this week as we know he can Sammys primo’s is my sc team name if you would like to check out team and rank out good luck mate
Did the same trade sloane to priddus and got some reward out of parker as have had since rd 1. The mullett also repaid the faith in rd 1 selection. You gotta back your gut, by all means listen to advice but back your gut. Trade if you need to lti or upgrades but hold your premos. Jump on the fallen from the fat cow. Think i moved 10000 places this week into top 5000. Top 500 for the week, Just gotta ride the wave.
Pendles will be probably as low as he will be all season next week, Deledio too, couple others as well if you don't have anything to urgant this week maybe you could wait.
i mean it leaves me with 260k next week for double upgrade
Dex great write up again mate I would hate to think how many stones you turn over to uncover these underpriced but relevant players. Thanks mate.
On to Ziebell – DPP is appealing but his ability ability to run into people with his head overrules everything else.
I reckon is almost right for the picking on more week to see what he scores his risky jack
It's interesting to compare fyfe to ziebell.
Both are high percentage contested bal winners with poor efficiency, until this year, in which fyfe has started to handball more than kicking resulting in his DE % greatly increasing .
Due to the nature of contested footy it's extremely difficult the have both a high Kick/Handball ratio and good DE% as many of the quick kicks out of a pack result in clangers detrimental to point scoring.
To cut a long story short, I think if ziebell opted to handball more to teamateswhen surrounded in the contest his scoring will increase or at least be more consistent.
Not for me this year, but Ill watch with interest
Thoughts on bringing in Ollie Wines?
I wouldnt right now….might wanna wait
Thoughts on Vandenberg and Lonie to Rocky and Lever via DPP with 100,000 remaining. Then next week can trade Hogan and or Salem
Tom – that's precisely what I am doing (so I like it)!!
Vberg and Lonie both with high breakevens, and sounds like they love Lever down at the Crows. Surely he plays in front of Hartigan?
Who should by on field out of:
Touk Miller
Krakouer
Ellis Yolmen
Robbie Tarrant
all are good on the field….use in order of matches??? I'd be playing them all….but I only have 3 of the 4 and all 3 will be on the field ….I dont have CEY
This is for my midfield. I only have 2 spots on field but I can swing Krak into forward and play Tarrant who's on bench.
In order
Touk miller
CEY
Tarrant
Krak
i would avoid CEY on field this week. back from a hammy. if he avoids the snot he could re-injure the hammy, but i rekon he may cop the snot vest
Hogen toHarvey or franklin or pavlich ?
Neither right now….Franklin next week!
If you have to make the trade go Harvey as a POD. if you dont need a POD then Franklin. stay away from Pavilch
ziebell or treloar for vandenberg:
– ziebell would be brought in as a mid then replace salem at f6 with the fwd line completed (dusty, buddy, bont, gray, mitchell, salem, tarrant, clark currently) im in no rush to finish my fwd line…
– or get treloar as my m8 for the rest of the year
Treloar……..Ive had Treloar since day 1
Are these trades any good?
Trade 1: Oxley to Lever
Trade 2: Vandenberg to Priddis
This leaves me with 200k in the bank.
This will allow me to go Cripps to Pendels and Hogan to Rocky( Via DPP)
Any suggestions?
Jumped on Ziebell last week and am very happy with him so far
Hogan to Rocky via DPP or Brown to Docherty?
If I go Hogan to Rocky I will have to field either Brown or Lever and I think this will hurt my overall rank which is currently 993rd.
thoughts?
In your situation it might be worth holding off Rocky for 1 week (he won't go up that much) although I'm not completely sold on Docherty either.
Who is the best downgrade option out of Glenn, Lever, Leslie and Dale?
Lever because he is on the bubble
glenn is on the bubble as well and 30k cheaper, consider Glenn if named
You want someone who is on the bubble and named. Wait until teams are announced and only go for that bubble.
I still have k simpson warming the bench down back. When he does play next he is likely to drop another 20k. Thoughts on keeping him or trading him for the likes of rance, houli etc.
I'd keep, Catlton need there leaders to stand up.
He is a keeper. Doesn’t matter what his price is
Rockliff or Titch?
rockilff
Rockliff has the job security and proven prior scoring. Titch hasn't got the best JS and isn't really proven.
rocky
does anyone now if mitch wallis tagged on the weekend going either him or griffen to priddis this week and the other to rocky next week
I've got Mitch as well and I think he and a couple of others spent a little time trying to run with Fyfe.
What are your thoughts on Matthew Pavlich as a smokey POD??
He is priced at just 458k with an average of 101.3 and a BE of 49.
Thoughts community?
Why not betts????
good start to the year unsure if he can keep it up and likely to get rested later on
No way……with all the injuries hes actually the main man in ADL….Pav is injury prone and always get concussed every other game
i was referring to pav
oh ok…well if you want Pav go for it! Think Betts is better option
he is exactly that
POD
if you have one then hold on pav
sometimes we dont get POD just to have one. i think Keiran Jack is a better POD this week
Great stuff as always Dex
Would love to hear your thoughts on these trades community.
Oxley to Lever
Salem to Rocky via krak dpp
Cheers
Keep Oxley!!! Salem to Rock good!!!
Not sure lever is worth it even though he's on the bubble…….Oxley is not a must trade unless you need cash? but it's not worth it for even the cash Oxley will out score him for sure!!!!
But his breakeven is 95!!
He is defiantly going to go down in price.
Yeah Oxley will but not much….he will score more and after the next cycle he could go higher but lever wont!
Oxley job security is much and far more higher than Lever as well as points!
I'll take the hit on Oxley because he wont lose that much and worth keeping in the long run over Lever and has more upside!
is it worth downgrading another rookie like McIntosh
Yeah, McIntosh is a mush better downgrade option instead of Oxley.
Also pick Glenn over Lever if he is named and you have the appropriate dips.
Cheers Tom
Great analysis there Dex. I can't see him being a top 6 fwd or top 8 mid at the end of the year so he's not for me.
Will (no pun intended) Minson be in this week.
Cordy is useless. 37 Disposals 39 HO in 4 Weeks.
Thoughts?
The coach seems to like Cordy's effort. Not sure if we'll see Minson until Cordy needs a rest or at least until bulldogs vs a team like Kangas since Minson usually dominates.
i think because doggies were winning the coach did tchange anything. now they have that loss i think Minson will be back in… that said, theres a reason they are staying with cordy. so wait for teams to be named tonight
i think he’ll aberage 100 from here, but it’ll be a stressful 100, an 80 80 140 type of 100 average, but as long as he gets there I’ll be happy. Admittedly I’m biased as I bought him in a fortnight ago for 390k and he’s killed it since. Hoping he’s my loophole/cover f7m9 by just after the byes
And surely swallow out is a good thing for him
Not for me Dex but like everyone else I love you doing thought provoking articles. Thanks mate
I'm not a big fan of taking out low injury affected scores out of a injury prone players season average to justify trading him in underpriced. It's not so much that Ziebell is injury prone but probably more so just seems to get himself knocked out or something.
Having said that wouldn't be the worst pick (the DPP could make him a handy M9/F7 floater) just not for me.
Have a few trade options this week, was wondering if I could get everyone's advice.
1. Griffen – Rocky
2. Griffen – Rokcy & K Jack – Parker
3. Clark – Ziebell & K Mac – Lever
4. Oxley – Tom McDonald & K Mac – Lever
5. Hold
Have 20 trades right now.
Thanks
Get Rocky!!!!! Now is the time!
Keep Oxley!
Keep Kmac still makes money not much but wait on Oxley and Kmac
So option 1 or 2?
1
Thoughts on Vandenberg and Lonie to Rocky and Lever dia DPP then next week hopefully Salem down to someone and Cripps to a premo mid?
I'm staying away from Lever. Rocky for sure!
Otherwise I could go to Glenn…
or are there any other rookies you suggest in the midfield or forward?
Amon
i respect your call Dex but id rather go for a Tom Mitchell type player
Is it wise for me to trade Hogan and Lonie this week rather than Salem as Salem won't lose money?
You will lose money on Salem & Lonie…….trade Salem. & lonie…u can keep hogan for 1 more week if you want?
Salem is out, so how will he lose money?
Your right I'm sorry….thinking of last week
Brain fart…….Keep Hogan and Salem….Hogan is suppose to play nothing really to lose….I would trade Lonie?
Makes sense to move on Hogan & Lonie before Salem. Good chance that Lonie may not play either, given he was concussed.
hold and see the teams. Hogan might not be named either so wait and see what happens at 6.30pm tonight
Thanks Dex you have just screwed my POD
Bugger Off
haha
thats the nature of the Jocj Reynolds community.
Sharing wisdoms and helping each other reach the elitehood of supercoach glory
Hogan and Vandenberg out for Lever and Rocky via DPPS + 100k
or
Vandenberg and Nathan Brown out for Lever and Docherty + 50k to upgrade cripps/griffen to rocky next week
if I go with the first one I will have to field Brown or Lever for a week or two
thoughts?
#2
Thoughts on my team:$127,000 in the bank
Shaw, Simpson, Gibson, Newnes, Saad, McKenzie, McIntosh, Oxley
Fyfe, Selwood, Beams, JPK, Parker, Cripps, CEY, Steele, Krak, Vandenberg, Miller
Goldstein, Maric, Read
Gray, Swan, Martin, Tarrent, Clark, Hogan, Salem, Lonie
What trades should I do this week?
I would trade Vandenberg out, and if named trade in glenn or swing Mckenzie to mid and trade in lever.
then I would trade out one of Salem or lonie, swing krak forward and put Rocky straight in to your midfield.
Simple.
swap Krak into FWD
Trade out Vandenberg for Rocky
then
Swap Saad or Mackenzie into the MID
trade out Cripps for Lever
thoughts on Baley Dale?
I wont be brining him in this week but do we think he has good job security?
Im pretty sure he started sub so hes score of 50 is quite good
Hard to read into. If named sub again JS couldn't be too high. Not sure who will come back to take the spot though as at the moment only Morris and Minson are players in their best 22 who need to return.
That’s incorrect – we also had Jack Macrae running around in the VFL last week and he’ll almost certainly return after a BOG effort.
Hrovat also had a big game kicking 4 as did Jarrad Grant – Honeychurch will likely be out with a shoulder so Macrae takes that, but Dale is a fringe player at best lads – I’m not going near him.
I’ve decided that Getting rid of TBC is more important than getting Rocky this week.
Crouchings story of the leather mine made a lot of sends to be
Cripps to Rocky next week, as long as they increase in price about the same
so who you getting for TBC
Sauce in for TBC
I also looked to rid my team of TBC this week, but in the end decided to leave it one more week. But he's DEFINITELY out next week.
Took a look at Jacobs who has a 101 average but his scoring this year is too inconsistent. One week great, the next week poor. I like a bit more week to week reliability. I'm also concerned that the light pre-season due to knee injury might find him out in the back half of the season….if he get's through unscathed. That Reilly O'Brien has been edging closer to getting a game (named on an extended bench lately – but no cigar) suggests the Crows are mindful of giving Sauce some relief as well. Maybe they have the same concerns.
He's a risk for mine – I'm looking elsewhere.
Yes moving on TBC is a more pressing priority for me this week too Derek. Rocky will just have to wait another week even if he ends up costing another $10K or $20K more.
Tbc to Ryder had always been my plan , cause I have tvc in fwd line , but looking at Ryder BE may wait 1 more week
I'm actually holding TBC for a while.
1) he's had a crack in his kneee since pre season, Apparently he's only 100% as of a week ago and now ready to go
2) the DPP flexibility is huge for the byes.
I might consider trading him after the byes but not until then
trading out Oxley because of a high should i trade him to thurlow or laird
high (be)*
No, either trade down to a rookie or up to a true premium player – laird might be ok but not a huge fan of either of these options personally
Trade this week will probably be Salem to Rockliff & Lumumba to Birchall, thoughts anyone, Birchall has been pretty consistent so far & is a bit of a POD
With Birchall you know what you're getting (consistency and a mid-90's average) which is half the battle this year with the DEFs. And he's in only 4% of teams.
Nice work Slats. Looks like this page wasn't a waste after all.
Just watch for any signs of him not finishing the year strongly due to his interrupted pre-season. But his 7 week injury in 2013 didn't slow him down any so he should be right.
was thinking, Ryan griffen to Beams and Lumumba to Rockliff via dpp toughts? better options for beams not worried about cash??
I myself was thinking about JPK or Priddis, but everyone is bringing in Priddis. I feel like both trades are sideways and would avoid, but after last week's score I don't think I have the right to give too much advice to others.