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Dex Files – Tom McDonald

Published by Jock on

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TG Footy Tracgic - Dexter

What a week of footy! GWS beat Hawks, Saints come from almost 10 goals behind to win & my tips went horribly last weekend. The better news is; the curse appears to be over! Boak tonned up, Docherty has found form and “Bont” has 2 tons in a row!

The obvious person to endorse is Tom Mitchell – but I feel he is a Monty. Every serious coach will be looking at him.

I don’t think many people are considering Tom McDonald (as he is now 500k); so I’m going to look deeper into his form.

TMac has started the season like a freight train, averaging 114 from 6 games. These sorts of scores from a key defender are not the normal point source for our backlines. Key defenders usually get you a 50-odd most weeks, and the occasional 120+ score. TMac has scored consistently in the opening 6, prompting some eyes to be opened, considering most of the top defenders each year are your half-back running types (Shaw, Smith, Simpson, Hibberd et-al.).

With that in mind; Tmac is still one to consider. One cannot ignore his output for much longer.

Can Tom McDonald maintain his current output?

First, let’s look at why he is scoring as well as he is.

Four 100+ scores and two 90’s from six games says it all. Tom is in a rare vein of form.

Looking at his previous seasons’ SC scoring is hardly exciting, considering before this year his best year was 2013, where he achieved a 74.6 SC average from 17 games. In fact, his past 4 years has yielded SuperCoach averages in the 70’s – Consistent.

His stats in that time are also consistent; he registered (average) 14, 16.6, 16.2 and 14.9 disposals in each of his previous 4 years. He averaged 4.5, 4.7, 4.2 and 4.8 marks a year in the same time. Even his rebound 50 stats were similar, (3, 3.4, 3.9 and 3.1). Not to mention tackles (2, 2, 2 & 1.7).

Now; look at his current output for season 2015. Avg Disposals 19.8, marks 7.8, R50’s 6.5 and tackles 3.2 are all up.

This can be put down to either, he’s just playing out of his skin, or he has a new role.

My thoughts are, (watching him play, and delving into his stats), I think he has a new role. Remember back to Brian Lake at the Doggies circa 2007-2010. Lake averaged 99, 92, 92 and 104 in that time as a rebounding key backman – peeling off his man, taking intercept marks and setting up attacking plays. Lake averaged between 17-20 disposals, 7-9.6 marks, 3.6-4.6 R50’s and 1.3-2.3 tackles a game in this time.

Fast-forward to 2015; look at Tom McDonald – very similar numbers and output.

Is Tom over-priced at 500k?

Tom McDonald currently averages 114; currently at 500k and a breakeven of 54, mind you. That average commands a price tag of $612k.

Now, I’m not saying McDonald will average 114 from here, he’s going to have a ‘mare one day. What I will say is this; 500k for a defender that – in 6 games – hasn’t dropped a sub 90 score, is pretty darn good.

If we go back to the NAB challenge, he averaged 86.7 from his 3 games (82, 98, and 80). Not exciting, but solid.

Combined with his 2015 SC output, he has a 104.9 SC average. Still bloody good for a defender!

Remember; the NAB challenge had 26 players per side. Meaning; the magical 3300 points had to be divided between 52 players (not 44).

If we divide his score by 22 (the normal amount of players a team), then multiply it by 26 (the amount that was playing), we get the “normal” SC score.

This change gives him a much more accurate 97, 116 and 95 from these games. (Average of 102.4)

Combine these 3 NAB games with his 2015 season average and in 9 games he’s carrying a 110.1 average. These are midfield numbers; or worth $592k – S.T.E.A.L. (Especially for those who started him, or grabbed him pre-round 3).

This table shows his 2015 output:

TMAC

By all means, make up your own mind – I made mine up after round 2. I swapped Michael Johnson to TMac. I made 87k and got 109.25 pts per game, instead of MJ’s 80.75. My reason (2 reasons); Lyon clearly stated MJ would play a more Lock-down defender role, and TMac’s form coupled with my research indicated a massive bargain.


If you’re still uncertain whether Tom is the real deal or not; look at who Melbourne have played, who TMac played on and what the result was.

Round 1. Gold Coast FC, Sam Day – Melbourne Win.

Round 2. GWS, Jeremy Cameron – Melbourne Lose.

Round 3. Adelaide FC, Tex Walker – Melbourne Lose.

Round 4. Richmond FC, Jack Riewoldt – Melbourne Win.

Round 5. Fremantle FC, Matt Pavlich –Melbourne Lose.

Round 6. Sydney Swans, Lance Franklin – Melbourne Lose.

Tom has played 6 games (4 losses) on 4 stars and 2 seriously talented players, for an average of 114? Enough said.


What do you think community? Is TMac a valid selection or is he too risky? Or is he just too expensive? We’d love to hear your thoughts!


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I N Pieman

Nice one Dex. Had a look at him against Freo. What a beast. Keep thinking to myself now how can he keep this up. But he has. Want to get rid of Melbourne players, not bring them in. But we can’t ignore him to much longer. Great stats as always mate.

GoldCoastBlues

I hate talking about this. I said all pre-season that if Andrew Walker came back for the Blues after being declared totally fit, I would take him as my first pick in defence. I ended up bringing him in for the struggling Malceski after Round 2, after considering McDonald instead, and I have regretted every minute since. It hurts. TMac please start producing 40's – I can't take it anymore.

david

Wow great points, shame I can’t afford him. Speaking of defence, do you think jake lever has job security? I think I prefer him over Mckenzie even if he is more expensive. Risky pick?

scrofl

Wait for him to play this round, and if he is named the week after, get him in while he's on the bubble.

OldOcker

Great piece of analytical work Dex, Nothing short of brilliant.
I would love to be bringing T McDonald in this week but I have too many midfield problems atm. Should have done it last week.

Lewis, Sloane, CEY, Heeney and maybe Jelwood. Seems like I will be sticking by my original plan and upgrading in defence last.

Keep up the great work mate.

Spooners

Would JPK, Mundy, Selwood, Shiel, Dangerfield or Armitage be the best to trade in right now? (I already have Fyfe, Pendles, Neale, Lewis and Sloane.)

SideBySidebottom

JPK.

SideBySidebottom

Though Pendles is a solid captain option.

SideBySidebottom

Ignore the second comment.

You've been Dexed

Jpk would give u 4 rd 12 outs based on the players named – just something to consider

OldOcker

All of them are very legitimate choices and you could very easily make an argument for all if you consider them to be top 10 midfielders this year.

It is important to keep an eye on your bye structure whilst trading in guns at the moment.

carlylerific

Hello community id love some feed back about my current conundrum.
I have mckitosh whos plump and ready for the markets do I downgrade to mckenzie make roughly 200k and then in 2 weeks trade harris andrews out for lever ??
Ive had andrews all along so got lucky there.
Alsoooo my rucks are killing me ! Have Goldstein and big mince meat minson tbc to give me coverage. Do I make the dredded side ways trade to a mumy or Jacobs Or do I hold onto my fallen premo ruck minson ?? Help would be amazing !!

General Soreness

Sideways your ass off on Skinflute!

Donavan

Minson needs to go.

Dont mind the McIntosh to McKenzie trade, but only if you have no other issues to address.

derek

surely Minson will play this week. have you actually watch Cordy play! Me thinks he will be back this week and play his ass off for the rest of the year!

murray

I have leuy and heeney who have to go this week. My options are

heeney to mckenzie
leuy to sandilands or nic nat

OR
heeney to mckenzie
leuy to t mitchell (via TBC dpp)

OR
Leuy to goddard (via TBC dpp)
hogan to mckenzie (via krakeour dpp)

Option 1 gives me stability in rucks with TBC backup in fwd line
Option 2 means TBC is R2 and can make cash with Mitchell
Option 3 is the most ambitious but means TBC is R2 but get premo (keeper) in Goddard

Thoughts??

General Soreness

I do not think Sandi and Nic Nat are rucks you want to trade into, can you get $$ wise to Mummy or Jacobs, I would be aiming at that and trading accordingly.

Jesse

Mummy or Jacobs..

Who would be your prefered option General and why?

murray

Also what are your thoughts on Ebert as a trade in and premo keeper?

General Soreness

imho he is a 100 average player and not a premo keeper.

General Soreness

Great article Dex and would love to bring him in. Almost did in R2, but the echoes of Cale Hooker 2014 kept ringing in my ears. They are still there but are getting softer each week. I will probably end up paying top dollar for him, but is a cost I am willing to bear.

OldOcker

My thoughts and sentiments exactly General.

henry

want to get Titch in
hogan up to Titch
or
sloane down to titch

General Soreness

Hogan up

Nathan

Who to trade out of Sloane, Rich and Hogan. I have 270k and 24 trades.

zeesus

Sloane is out for 6. Surely you can't hold him that long. He would be the obvious choice. Hogan and Rich should hold value for 1 more week at least.

Donavan

Sloane needs to be traded for a premo.

Nathan

Ive gone Sloane to JPK and Rich to Goddard (via Krak).

derek

very nice

Locked and Loaded

I've personally gone Sloane to DMac and Hogan to Goddard with 181k left over. Next week Cripps to Rocky and Vandenberg to Parker BOOM!!

L.Gibbs

I can afford any premium midfielder sho should I get? Already have Fyfe, Selwood, danger, Griffen and pendles. Looking at closely jpk, Mundy and Shiel any better options

Luke

JPK, Parker ( Has bottomed out) or selwood next week

Donavan

Kennedy. Mundy & Shiel are near their top price, Kennedy wa at his cheapest price last week, and has turned his form around.

derek

you are paying premium for Shiel and mundy. Listen to Higgo. Get JPK

The Ranger

Nice work Dex, thanks, he's been bloody impressive eh?
Like many others I'd love to get him in but can't quite bring myself to do it before sorting out my midfield issues.
Then again, at a 110av for $500K…..maybe I'm looking at it the wrong way!

Bbbbb

Is Tom Mitchell or sloane more important ATM?

zeesus

Sloane is injured. Out for 6.

zeesus

Docherty or Smith?

Donavan

Smith – his in a better team than Docherty, and was scoring great until KO'ed. Will start pumping out big scores again in the next week or two.

derek

we can wait one more week on Smith before he hits bottom. If he gets playing in the guts or on the wing like he did the first 2 weeks, he is a lock. Watch him closely, especially with Sloane out.

Liam

Great stuff Dex
Just want to hear your thoughts on these trades
vandenberg to parker.
The reason i'm thinking of this trade is because of the high breakeven for vandenberg and the underpriced parker seems to be back in form
Cheers.

zeesus

Agreed Liam. Good trade.

chops

Doing the same thing, Liam….

Sc newby

Burgoyne top 6-10 def???

Donavan

No, goes missing when the Hawks are cruising against poor sides. Does what he has to when he has to.

derek

No. He turns up when the hawks need him, otherwise he is cruising around the backline doing zero. great player but not for SC.

@Rem_Wah

he will finish at least inside top ten, surely…

@jstorm311

Dexster, great article mate. I was going to go to him last week, but decided to see what he would do against two heavyweights of the comp in Syd & Hawks, who he plays in consecutive weeks. If he goes well this week, he may find himself in my backline.
Loving your work btw!!

tom

does anyone know how long Saad is out for?

hold or trade?

dognino

Had a good look at McDonald all pre season, but didn't have the plums to start him. My main concern was he would be the 6th demon in my side , stupid, seeing as all the demon rookies are plump and being traded out now. After down trading newnes to Mckenzie last week I'm using that cash to go hogan to Titch and vandenberg to McDonald via swing set. Leaves me with a good swing position with krak and Mckenzie in the mids (1 will be on field) to open up the manuverability

David

No mention of Schade on the bubble this week, worth concidering?

chops

I wouldn't. JS is not great. McKenzie a better option.

Poloko48

GC only have 20 fit players, he'd be stiff to miss the next 2-3, enough time to make $$$.

Ling's Bling

I think its too late to jump on TMac. If we jump on now, we lock in a huge loss to the (many) coaches that have him already. This means that we can't catch the coaches that are ahead of us that already have him; his points that he's scored are gone. I was a 50/50 to bring him in last week but went for Pittard instead, a big loss in the very short term but I think it would be silly to bring him in the week after.

panther

hi community would like to know your thoughts on Stevie J he is priced at $425k with a BE of 60, got a reasonable draw coming up and was thinking of going vandenberg—->stevie j

derek

he wasn't in my long term plans. if you get him you might need to make another trade later, even then, he isn't going to give you too much of a cash increase (you get more from a rookie)

General Soreness

ballsy mate, like it, if he was DPP I would be all over him but as a mid only I cannot go there.

tom

who to upgrade this week?

Hogan, Vandenberg or McIntosh?

jake

think i may get him for a rookie along the lines of saad/oxley?

Gordo

unreal article still waiting though before bringing premiums into my back line on another not macintosh, goodes or vandenberg out for mckenzie. Then hogan to mitchell or should i be going for a Goddard franklin type player current have gray,swan,martin in the fowards

@Finn_09

Help! Neale or Priddis (or anybody under 550k) ?

Josh

I’d go priddis

Josh

Team

Def: shaw, hibberd, newnes, saad, oxley, kmac, n brown, Goddard

Mids: fyfe, sloane, danger field, Griffen, swallow,cripps, vandenburg, miller, CEY, krak, Mckenzie

Ruck goldy, maric, TBC

Forwards: gray, swan, franklin, Martin, hogan, Salem, Tarrant, lambert

270k in the kitty

What do I do?

Cheers community

Gordo

can you go vanderburg to jpk

Josh

Don’t think I can
I’m thinking along the lines of hogan to titch
Just looking for other suggestions

Blueprime

Sloane to JPK or Pendlebury.

Ethan

Shouldn’t have a 300k players just sitting there on your bench

Spooners

Out of these 6 midfielders who would be the best to trade in. Dangerfield, Shiel, JPK, Selwood, Mundy and Hannerbery. I think JPK.
Thoughts?

Tyler

Best to worst- JPK, Shiel, Dangerfield, Selwood, Mundy and Hannerbury

Reasoning: JPK gets very good scores, very often. Shiel is a gun, and should average 115, Danger is underpriced, selwood would be better to get next week,
when he goes down in price hopefully, Mundy is expensive and hanners is too but not sure he can keep it up

tom

Vandenberg to Beams

or

Hogan to Goddard?

if Vandenberg to Beams is there anyone else instead of Beams I should consider to upgrade too?

Ryan

who should i trade in for rich? a mix of pure premo and bottomed out premo's in this list
mundy
sheil
grey
ebert
barlow
parker
t.mitchell

?????

Derek

Grey stands out for me. Top A grader

Ryan

cheers mate barlow and parker look tasty but i cant not have these 140's thats grey keeps bumping out

JMG

Off topic, but interested in your thoughts Dex re: holding Sloane. I traded him in for GAJ and my thoughts are he has bled too much cash and he should be back after rd 11 bye. He might be someone I still want in my team at end of year.
I’ve currently traded CEY early to Parker to cover the hole a bit. Also gone Hogan to Titch. Worried about having too many Swans possibly (also have JPK) but should be able to cover rd 12 bye with careful planning.
Ps- I’m ranked inside top 2000 currently

Gordo

macintosh, goodes or vandenberg out for mckenzie. Then hogan to mitchell or should i be going for a Goddard franklin type player current have gray,swan,martin in the fowards

Tyler

Kmac out for dmac. If you like titch go for him but otherwise go for franklin

mcleal10

I dont think Im gonna bring him in this week. It's going to be a loss, but I'm hoping he pulls a poor score eventually and then consider snagging him.

T.J.M

Thoughts on Hogan and Vandenberg to Lever and Pendles via multiple DPP's?

Mac

Still got Kelly but I'm going to hold him. I'm thinking of downgrading him to Brodie Smith next week who should be under 400k. Thoughts? Got McIntosh as cover

Traderlyf

honestly thinking about holding sloane and hoping he comes back early since its just a cheek….

Tophawk

I have thought about that.

Lets say he does come back in 4 weeks instead. Remember, the game will have progressed a lot by then. That $513K sitting on the pine could have been used to build your team to ensure you keep up with the other players. By risking that amount of cash for 4-6 weeks being static, I reckon keeping Sloane, even if he is back in 4 at best, will set you back. As the Crows have the bye in round 12 (in 5 weeks), I see no point bringing him back in rd 11 (in 4 weeks). The odds say, he will be back in round 13. (In 6 weeks)

I didnt want to, but I have traded Sloanie this week with a heavy heart. Mind you, he might be super juicy to get back after the Crows bye.

Just my take

Traderlyf

my thinking is ive got coverage on the bench, i will be getting in people such as rockliff, JPK and barlow very soon. I have Parker, Heppell, Fyfe, Pendles etc who all have the round 12 bye. If sloane comes back within 4 it will be perfect and he has the round 11 bye which will be very helpful

You've been Dexed

Crows have bye rd 11

You've been Dexed

Be back after the r11 bye

sjp

Boak or Gray?

Tophawk

Robbie Gray is your man.

Not that Boak is bad, but Gray is a consistent SC point scoring machine. And dont forget the DPP benefit with Robbie.

Traderlyf

gray

Canardly Cee

Gray

SideBySidebottom

Gray should definitely be a top six forward but Boak's claim at a top eight mid is iffy.

Tophawk

I was going Sloane to Mitchell and still going Heeney to Mc Kenzie.

I have decided to cough up an extra 130K and go Sloane to Goddard.

Mitchell, despite being very, very attractive now, it is just slightly too speculative at this point in the game. If that trade "blows up" in your face, then you can almost kiss the $50K goodbye.

Despite Goddard being 29K more expensive, than last week, I reckon he is still solid value and a season "keeper".

An "injured premo to Mitchell" like trade opportunity will probably come up again this season. If you are trailing the pack at that time, then is the time IMO to pull such a spekkie trade.

Right now, as I am still in the mix, I am slowly growing my season keeper premos, and Goddard is one of those guys. Instead of 305K in the warchest with Mitchell, I still have a handy $175K with Goddard!

Cheers

Cheers

Tophawk

Also, cant wait to put the big V on Goddard on Friday night!!

Locked and Loaded

Tophawk I want Goddard as well this week and then will be 1 upgrade away from a completed forward line. Only issue is i will only have 4 premo mids as Sloane now has to go after a lengthy lengthy thought process. Am I too light in the mids at this stage of the season or do I just focus on it in the next week

SideBySidebottom

The WADA appeal doesn't concern you TH?

Poloko48

Won't affect this year, will be going for another 2yrs lol

Supercoach General

Would JPK, Mundy, Selwood, Shiel, Dangerfield or Armitage be the best to trade in right now? (I already have Fyfe, Pendles, Neale, Lewis and Sloane.)
Opinions greatly appreciated

dbo

thoughts on this trade plan
out newton and hogan -> in JPK and d mac

next week with 100k
out touk miller or VDB and mccintosh/saad
and in lever plus mid or fwd premo with krak swing

Tyler

Defiantly needs to be in our final squads will finish top 5 defenders , get him

The Bont

Do I bring in Mundy & Jay Lever this week or should I jump on some fallen premos in Stevie J & Luke Parker?

Second option a lot riskier but could pay off

Locked and Loaded

Parker is about to pump out some huge scores, feel it in the gut!

Rob

Rich to Mckenzie and sloane to gray leaving me with 250k in the bank.

Good trades or not?

Any suggestions?

Westy

MIDS currently = Mundy, Sloane, Pendles, Lewis, Beams, Cripps, Vandenberg, CEY, N Krak, Heeney, Miller.
To avoid the donut courtesy of injuries/suspension to Sloane, Lewis (back next week), CEY, Heeney, have gone Sloane to Dusty and Hogan to McKenzie courtesy of H Goddard D/F swing.
Dusty is not in my top 8 mids, but definitely a top 6 fwd. I'll probably swing him forward when I move Salem or Tarrant on.

Mike

Great article. But Where the bloody hell were you when I was picking up Savage instead of McDonald!? Burnt two trades on that farce. Now it’s far too late as I won’t be able to pick him up this week either.

Liam

Thinking of going

Rich to mckenzie

Sloane to JPK

leaves me with 250k in the bank to upgrade cash cows in the coming weeks.

Thoughts??

Jack

Hello i am in trouble and only have one win on the board. I have 40k and most of my mids back and fowards are suffering big injuries. What should I do?? Shiuld I bring in some rookie talent or some aboriginal talent? I really need your help brothers. Thank you sons.

OldOcker

The right question asked in the right way just might get the right answer.
If you only have 40k there are no players of that value.

Wheels1987

Forget McDonald

bring in The Prince

randomcliche

Anyone else in SC CUP? If so do you have a bye this week as well? What is your SC cup rank and overall rank? Mine are 2027 and 24390 respectively with a bye.

Sully321

Im thinking this week
Sloane to JPK/Priddis
Hogan to titch
As I have already have luke parker do you think it will matter having three sydney mids in my team if I get JPK in midfield and Mitchell in my fwd
Thoughts will be appreciated thanks