Dex Files – Tom McDonald
What a week of footy! GWS beat Hawks, Saints come from almost 10 goals behind to win & my tips went horribly last weekend. The better news is; the curse appears to be over! Boak tonned up, Docherty has found form and “Bont” has 2 tons in a row!
The obvious person to endorse is Tom Mitchell – but I feel he is a Monty. Every serious coach will be looking at him.
I don’t think many people are considering Tom McDonald (as he is now 500k); so I’m going to look deeper into his form.
TMac has started the season like a freight train, averaging 114 from 6 games. These sorts of scores from a key defender are not the normal point source for our backlines. Key defenders usually get you a 50-odd most weeks, and the occasional 120+ score. TMac has scored consistently in the opening 6, prompting some eyes to be opened, considering most of the top defenders each year are your half-back running types (Shaw, Smith, Simpson, Hibberd et-al.).
With that in mind; Tmac is still one to consider. One cannot ignore his output for much longer.
Can Tom McDonald maintain his current output?
First, let’s look at why he is scoring as well as he is.
Four 100+ scores and two 90’s from six games says it all. Tom is in a rare vein of form.
Looking at his previous seasons’ SC scoring is hardly exciting, considering before this year his best year was 2013, where he achieved a 74.6 SC average from 17 games. In fact, his past 4 years has yielded SuperCoach averages in the 70’s – Consistent.
His stats in that time are also consistent; he registered (average) 14, 16.6, 16.2 and 14.9 disposals in each of his previous 4 years. He averaged 4.5, 4.7, 4.2 and 4.8 marks a year in the same time. Even his rebound 50 stats were similar, (3, 3.4, 3.9 and 3.1). Not to mention tackles (2, 2, 2 & 1.7).
Now; look at his current output for season 2015. Avg Disposals 19.8, marks 7.8, R50’s 6.5 and tackles 3.2 are all up.
This can be put down to either, he’s just playing out of his skin, or he has a new role.
My thoughts are, (watching him play, and delving into his stats), I think he has a new role. Remember back to Brian Lake at the Doggies circa 2007-2010. Lake averaged 99, 92, 92 and 104 in that time as a rebounding key backman – peeling off his man, taking intercept marks and setting up attacking plays. Lake averaged between 17-20 disposals, 7-9.6 marks, 3.6-4.6 R50’s and 1.3-2.3 tackles a game in this time.
Fast-forward to 2015; look at Tom McDonald – very similar numbers and output.
Is Tom over-priced at 500k?
Tom McDonald currently averages 114; currently at 500k and a breakeven of 54, mind you. That average commands a price tag of $612k.
Now, I’m not saying McDonald will average 114 from here, he’s going to have a ‘mare one day. What I will say is this; 500k for a defender that – in 6 games – hasn’t dropped a sub 90 score, is pretty darn good.
If we go back to the NAB challenge, he averaged 86.7 from his 3 games (82, 98, and 80). Not exciting, but solid.
Combined with his 2015 SC output, he has a 104.9 SC average. Still bloody good for a defender!
Remember; the NAB challenge had 26 players per side. Meaning; the magical 3300 points had to be divided between 52 players (not 44).
If we divide his score by 22 (the normal amount of players a team), then multiply it by 26 (the amount that was playing), we get the “normal” SC score.
This change gives him a much more accurate 97, 116 and 95 from these games. (Average of 102.4)
Combine these 3 NAB games with his 2015 season average and in 9 games he’s carrying a 110.1 average. These are midfield numbers; or worth $592k – S.T.E.A.L. (Especially for those who started him, or grabbed him pre-round 3).
This table shows his 2015 output:
By all means, make up your own mind – I made mine up after round 2. I swapped Michael Johnson to TMac. I made 87k and got 109.25 pts per game, instead of MJ’s 80.75. My reason (2 reasons); Lyon clearly stated MJ would play a more Lock-down defender role, and TMac’s form coupled with my research indicated a massive bargain.
If you’re still uncertain whether Tom is the real deal or not; look at who Melbourne have played, who TMac played on and what the result was.
Round 1. Gold Coast FC, Sam Day – Melbourne Win.
Round 2. GWS, Jeremy Cameron – Melbourne Lose.
Round 3. Adelaide FC, Tex Walker – Melbourne Lose.
Round 4. Richmond FC, Jack Riewoldt – Melbourne Win.
Round 5. Fremantle FC, Matt Pavlich –Melbourne Lose.
Round 6. Sydney Swans, Lance Franklin – Melbourne Lose.
Tom has played 6 games (4 losses) on 4 stars and 2 seriously talented players, for an average of 114? Enough said.