Dex Files – Travis Boak
Well; if you traded in Seedsman, all isn’t lost – he did score a 93 – although my “curse” seems to be in full swing. Surely, this weeks’ candidate has a better run. For all those Port Adelaide fans and coaches with Travis Boak in their sides – I apologise in advance.
Travis Boak seems to be doing alright.
For those who started with the Port captain; I’ll bet you considered booting him before he lost a chunk of cash – but for those that kept faith – he’s surely repaid that faith shown.
After a 68 and 82 in the opening two rounds, he’s come out with 106, 147 and 124, (a 3 round average of 124) to average 105.4 for the season. Considering he started at $568k (priced to average 106), he’s dropped 10k, and slightly better value with an achievable break-even of 64. If he hits his projected of 100; he will rise to 575k. Now is the time to jump.
For those looking to do their first midfield upgrade – Boak is surely value.
Sitting in only 4.4% of teams; you could do worse than bring Boak in – considering he has already had 2 bad games – the odds of him having many more are low. For the last 2 years; Boak has averaged less in the first 8 rounds than the last 15 rounds.
In the last two completed seasons Boak has amassed 4459 Supercoach points, at an average of 106.2 from 42 games – with 23 100+ scores and only 9 scores below 85. Not bad odds I say.
Look at these numbers for reference (Thanks Old Ocker!)
Going by the previous two seasons, (Hinkley era), he has averaged 4.5 sub 85 scores – he’s already had 2. If he continues along this vein, he’s due for 2-3 more sub 85 scores.
Obviously, this is all hypothetical – but the best way to project a result is to look to the past; and going by this – Boak is expected to hit the ton 9-11 more times and average approx. 106-110 from here on out.
Surely, those numbers are good enough for an M7-8 player – as I expect Boak to be.
The best part about Boak; his tasty round 13 bye situation helps us immensely.
We can’t forget his run until the bye: West Coast (H), Brisbane (A), Richmond (H), Melbourne (Darwin), Western Bulldogs (H), Geelong (H), Carlton (A). I don’t know about you, but that run alone has me seriously contemplating dropping Boak into my side; not to mention, I’d expect PA to win most (if not, all) of these games.
In the last 2 years; Boak has averaged 108.8 in wins (high of 172, low of 58) and 102 in losses (high of 162, low of 65).
Let’s look at his numbers:
Looking over his past two completed seasons, we see his numbers stay relatively steady. Similar disposal numbers, marks, tackles and contested possessions. Even his clanger numbers are similar. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Travis Boak is a pretty safe bet to get you a 105-110 average from here out.
For me; I’m seriously considering him as my M7-8 finisher – I’m looking to upgrade Salem by swinging Lambert forward and dropping Boak into the guts.
What are you doing this week? To trade or not to trade, that is the question.