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Dex Files – Jack Marin

Published by Jock on

Concrete Booking Agency

TG Footy Tracgic - DexterCommunity; what a testing weekend that was. It had late outs, injuries to popular players and ordinary scores from Premiums to boot.

This week had it all. I endorsed “Bont” last weekend, and I still stand by my decision – he’s a gun – but that calf is questionable. I hope you; like me, held off trading him in. I saved that trade and instead got in Tom McDonald (when Melbourne v Adelaide teams were confirmed), who may even be a keeper.

Jack Martin is under the microscope this week.

Not for the safe SuperCoach, that’s for sure. Jack Martin will test your intestinal fortitude. Coming off a nice 117 though – he is surely tempting to those of us who like value and money-making. His 3 round average sits nicely on 94.7 – from a kid priced at $349k, is value. Especially when his break-even sits at a crisp -13; he’s sure to make money.

Is Jack a Keeper?

Not likely. You’d only bring him in for the cash injection, and move him on once his price peaks.

His season averages to date are good: 16.7 disposals (10 kicks, 8.3 contested) at a slick 81.1% efficiency, 6.3 marks, 4.7 tackles, 1.7 clearances, 3.3 inside 50’s, 1 goal and 2 clangers for 94.7 SC from 79% ToG.

Last year, with McKenna as coach and being injured in game 1 and 21; Martin Averaged 11.3 disposals (7 kicks, 5.5 contested) at 58.9% DE, 3 marks, 2.3 tackles, 1.2 clearances, 1.7 I50’s, .9 goals and 2.2 clangers a game. He averaged 56.5 SC in this time.

If we take out the two injury affected games that year, (Round 1 he dislocated his shoulder 5 minutes in and round 21 he injured his leg mid-way through Q2). Jack averaged 66.1 SC, with a jump in all categories, but not really inspiring numbers.

I’d only consider Martin to come in to my team if Ablett misses at least 3 more games. Why?

Combine his output in the 2014 and 2015 seasons to date and you will see a little trend appear. He does remarkably better with Ablett OUT of the team than with. This could be put down to a positional shift – when Ablett is in, Martin goes forward.

Look at this little table I compiled and see:

JackMartin

This table isn’t a be-all, end-all argument. Rocket may decide to keep Martin in the guts/wing while Ablett recovers up forward. I’m just going by what’s already transpired – which shows Martin fares better sans Ablett.

Should I bring Martin in my team?

As I stated earlier, it’s entirely up to you. Yes, bring him in if you feel he can keep up his hot start to 2015, but be wary – history has shown –his output with the little master in the team isn’t as good.

For me, I was lucky. I didn’t have Bartel and I don’t have any underperforming players to move on. So it’s a no for martin from me, but I can definitely see the value there.

Well Community, What do you think about Martin? Will you take the plunge? Is he worth 350k? We would love to hear from you.


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Deadly

Cheaper options for making money, especially next week if Krak and Tarrant are still around.

General Soreness

But will they average 95 whilst making money is the question?

Deadly

But love him as a player and what he brings to the game.

Dave Ruddick

I have 260K in the bank and have only used one trade so far and am off to a handy start (ranked 8000 odd). Martin has been on my radar all season. Very tempted to trade out the injured Lamb to Jack Martin…thanks for the article Dex

Dean

If you don't have Krakouer in your side your much better off keeping Lamb and see if Krakouer is playing this week and if he is and scores 60+ you could then look at getting Krakouer in round 5 as he will make a ton more cash then martin will that's for certain.

Then again if your ranked outside top 3000 overall which u are, then it wont hurt to trade out Lamb for Martin if you really like him as your chances to win the 50k are very slim especially this year as the vast majority of teams have very similar teams.

I think even those like myself who are ranked in the top 1000 have very little chance of winning the 50k unfortunately but its that kind of year after looking at all the top teams, there is very little difference between teams.
The crucial difference from those ranked top 100 compared to others like myself (984) is they must of had the higher scoring rookies in there starting 22 as opposed to having the higher point scoring rookies on the bench like I did, for example they had Oxley & McIntosh in there starting 22 while I had them on the bench, this alone has cost me at least 150 points which is MASSIVE when your only 400 points behind number ONE.

Sana

Don't think I agree Dean. From what you've written you will have no chance getting higher in the rankings as you're not willing to take a risk. The eventual winner not only makes the right moves at the right times, but takes gambles that pay off. Bringing in Jack Martin could be just the ballsy gamble that pays off and shoots Dave right into contention. Big call, but hey, it could be the call of the year, go with ya gut Dave!

Aaron

Im bringing him in over bont i will only keep him for 4 to 5 weeks depending on his scoring output and hopefully he generates 90-120k the i will upgrade him to a fallen premium. Thoughts the only reason i am taking him over bont is the fact that 45 percent of teams have bont so i think its worth a gamble i am also considering higgins. Feedback would be appreciated guys

Dave Ruddick

Although very tempted I will probably not bother. I believe if you have nailed all of the rookies and are generating lots of cash then these "luxury" trades are a bit of a trap. I have sneaking suspicion that Jack Martin could be the next Cyril ( hopefully without the injuries), the type of player who can turn the game upside down and generate big Supercoach scores but for mine it's just too risky when you project yourself forward to the end of the year and you are out of trades. The Bont too is just as risky to me and I don't think there is much more that Higgins can give as far as points than he already is. I'm going to be patient and wait for fallen preiums.

SCamateur

Jack Martin or Taylor Adams?

Aaron

I think adams and martin will have a similar scores, i have adams and personally i think he is a bargain price

Spifflicator

Martin by a mile. Adams has THE worst disposal in the league ahead of Newnes and Toby Greene.

Charlesy

Won’t touch him this year Dexter but I love the idea of these articles mate. Giving food for thought about picking players from outside the cookie cutter teams. Each year I like to take a risk but Martin is not my man.

Aaron

Higgins kicked 2 goals 3 last week what happens if it was 4g 1b, i am only taking risks to me different to everyone else. Who are 7-8 premium forwards better than bont because there are injuries up forward.

John

have wines plus no cash….

could move him to the bench for a few weeks to pick up a fallen premo.. thoughts??

have good bench cover .

Tyler

you could trade him for a player like griffen, neale, ebert, judd, rich or another player like that.

Valks

Mate thinking the same. Have no real need to move him on just yet. Will come back into powers line up straight away.

derek

I posted on a thread earlier in week the idea of keeping Wines. I thought he was only going to miss 3-4 weeks. I have a feeling that Ollie will be back sooner than people think…

If you have all the right rookies, they seem to be doing a pretty good job. if you keep Wines as a loophole ( think Port have 4 sunday games in a row coming up – so he is perfect loophole) you can have a couple of cracks at getting the best rookie scores.

Also, port have Hawks then Adelaide, a couple of tough games that Wines might not have score too high anyway. however after that…..have a good look at ports draw…. <drool>. if you can hang onto Wines and have him when Port's draw gets easy, everyone will be trying to get him in.

Dean

Think its crazy keeping wines on the bench. I doubt very few don't have Swan but IF any of you with Wines don't have Swan trade Swan in NOW that's a must.

For a more risky approach those who don't have Bontempelli it might pay to trade in the Bont who is on the bubble. I personally think Bont is a freak and I think even with a tag he will average minimum 90 so when he is priced to score 78 I don't think you can wrong trading in the Bont but that's just what I strongly believe.

You need to have the same gut feeling before pulling the trigger. Although my advice is get another player you like because having a $535k player on the pine for 4 weeks is suicide especially this year.

Good luck guys.

lostlarrikin

I have the wines/bartel issue to manage and am looking to hold wines for at least a week or two.
With the fantastic four mid rooks holding the fort well, there is some luxury to hold and not loose much point scoring potential.
This allows two fold, 1) watch wines' recovery over next fortnight on off chance he tracks ahead of schedule 2) track the declining price of JPK/Beams with a view to jump on either of them as fallens.
I will be moving Bartel this week (coin toss, Buddy/Bont) but think there is def merit in holding fire on Quadzilla.

Ethan

if your impatiant then trade to a neale or judd
however if you can cope with a 0 on the bench. The luke parker could be your man. Another sub par peformance will see him around the early 500k mark.

John

Thanks lads,

my mid looks like this

fyfe, sloane, jack steven, parker, beams, CEY, NVB, heeney (wines, vandenberg, newton)

looks like I should be able to hold him.

Jack

Trading out Malceski & Lycett.
Should i bring in Smith & Grundy
Or
McDonald & Blicavs

Tyler

smith and grundy

Jay

probably mcdonald and grundy, that way you can make cash and get smith later on when he falls in price

Aaron

Which positions should we be trying to fill up with premiums first i was thinking forwards because thats where i am leaking the most points out of.

Tyler

Yep patch up the areas where you have the least cover or if there is a good trade to be made

Wazza

I have Shannon Hurn and am worried about his current scoring output (AVG 65 odd) and his future role considering a large number WCE key defenders will be taking prolonged holidays. Does he warrant a sideways trade? Cheers

Ethan

cut your losses and move on

conor

Hold or trade swallow?

Ethan

hold. was robbed after having a sublime performance against port

Jacko

When is another club jock podcast out?!?

Don’t pay money for nothing

General Soreness

Have you checked you emails? Tomorrow morning was what email says.

Jacko

That’d be why! Thanks mate

Marco_Polo94

I haven't received any emails, is there a way i can add my email to some sort of list on the site?

fatboyfat7

I didn't get any email about it and I'm signed up….

Dean

I didn't receive one either.

I N Pieman

Nice one Dex. He is tempting. I’ll need a few beers to think this one over

4rm

I get my emails. Have you checked your spam?

General Soreness

Great article Dex, definitely providing some good food for thought and POD value.

Love watching him when he is up and about, would hate to have him in my SC side, rollercoasters are for theme parks.

Dools

Echo , That General
Dex top shelf but still NO from me

SideBySidebottom

After four LTI trades I'm not in a position to consider anyone that isn't a premium keeper. Enjoyed the read though.

G

Folks what are your thoughts

Hooker or Houli or Birchel

OR

Rance

Appreciate your thoughts

jake

I would probly take hooker or birchall, leaning towards birchall more though

Tyler

I would take houli or birchall. Houli will have a good year this year top 6 defender I reckon

jake

Thoughts on moving mumford on for goldstein? and should i hold griffen this week and see what he does or downgrade him to the bont then swing him forward? cheers

Jono

My thoughts exactly re moving on Mummy and/or Griffen mate :/

half of me is wanting to back Griffen and trade off Mummy only purely because the ruck scoring is unstable.
but the other half is telling me that not to fall into the trap of trading your premos (mummy) cause he owes us a string of 150's lol.

craig

my gut is telling me to hold griffin until at least GWS's bye round and then take stock. by then he's either still a hold, or an upgrade to a rolled gold premo.

Jono

I have the conundrum of Griffen and Mumford losing me cash every week.

with 600k in the kitty, and a mid of 'Fyfe, Lewis, Beams, Rich, Griffen, Heeney, Ellis-Yol, Vandenberg, J.Anderson, Miller and Cripps'.

is it worth trading Cripps and Griffen (backing Mummy for 1 more week) for Sloan and Jelwood (making them keepers) but losing the money generation from Cripps.
OR back Griffen and trade J.Anderson and Mumford for Sloan and a cheaper option in rucks?
ie. Bilcalvs, Z.Smith, Grundy (of which I am still not really certain of) and/or Nicnat? (already have Goldy)

what are the community thoughts on the rucks situation? its killing me atm.
any thoughts would be appreciated.

Bez

I'd hold mummy. Still think he and goldy will be top 2 rucks this year. He might bleed some cash but you're better off locking the 2 rucks in and leaving them, there is no stand out option to swap him to considering you have goldy already. Mummy is more likely to ton up than anyone you have listed so stick to your guns and focus on other areas.
As for Anderson, he's gotta go, I'd wait a week tho and try and pick up krak next week.
And I think griff needs another chance, if he stains the underpant again this week then go bang bang

Dean

You think Mummy will be top 2 ruck this year? I doubt it he usually starts off strong then tapers off. This year he has started shocking and if he tapers off like he usually does, he wont be in the top 5 rucks that's for sure.

The new Ruck points structure is killing him, glad I didn't pick him. However I agree if you have him then HOLD him as he could come out this week and score you a 140 odd.

Bez

I think all rucks will struggle. Can't see anyone out scoring him. He will have enough big scores to maintain a respectable average

Trab Pukcip

Sshush Dex, had him in my team since the start!

Jay

Should I trade Bartel for Roughy for a straight premo swap or Bartel for J Martin and get the extra cash and get Roughy later on when he falls in price?
Thoughts would be great

eatemalive

I'm goin Buddy

fatboyfat7

Buddy for me too…

joey

I stuffed up big time and put in Padriag Lucey as my bench ruck option.

I have Will Minson and Goldy in my ruck, with Bellchambers in my FWD line (thinking Lucey was a DPP that I could swing incase of an injury).

Do I trade Lucey for Read or another DPP?
Or
Trade Minson for Bilcalvs so I can eventually swing my players incase of an injury?

SideBySidebottom

I'd wait and trade in Tom Read if a ruck injury hits and you need to swing in Belch.. You may be lucky and get away with it.

Phil

Yeah I second that. At least you have 2 durable ruckmen so you may not need the backup. I wouldn't trade Blicavs in for Minson

Dean

You have Minson and Goldy which I also have and TBC in your forward line which I have also. Although I have Read so I can bring TBC into my ruck if I need to which is what your wanting.

Firstly you have selected 2 great rucks in Goldy & Minson so keep them and do NOT trade them out.

Keep in mind if you chose to trade out Minson for Bilcalvs you still wouldn't be able to bring in TBC in from your forward because his DPP is RUCK/FWD and Bilcalvs DPP is RUCK/MID so DONT trade out Minson for Bilcalvs

Lastly don't wast a trade on getting rid of Lucey to Read or Cox its pointless especially when Goldy & Minson are playing & not injured touch wood. Gotta remember Read & Cox most likely wont get games so there price is not going to change any time soon if ever this year. So lets say if Goldy or Minson gets injured in round 8 then think about trading Lucey to a Read or Cox and then bring TBC into the ruck. Do NOT make this trade unless one of your rucks get injured first.

It's crazy to make this trade mate what happens if TBC gets injured, then you have wasted a trade for no reason. If that's all your concerned about then your doing well. Save your trades for when you really do need them.

joey

Thanks all!

I won't make that trade unless I absolutely have to!

throttlefinger

Loving the D-Files!

Agree on Martin. He's a road to a fallen prem, like the Bont. Have him in my Draft team so have been watching his numbers. Slotting him in for Bartel enables me to swap Goodes for Brodie Smith. Backline looks a lot better. His BE will be very low in the next couple rounds. The hope is Buddy will do his usual spud game soon (probably this weekend vs Freo) then in a 2-3 rounds swap with ol' Jackie boy.
Yummy.

Loved the Ablett/NoAblett stats. Top shelf as always, my friend.

Ryan

What are we doing with Ollie Wines community?

@gcuthber

Think we are letting him go

jimmy

prestia or hannebery

Pino

Should I trade Griffen or hold for now. If I do trade.. Should I upgrade to Sloane or save cash by doing a straight swap for Lachie Neale?
Thanks

@gcuthber

Hols son, Hold

@gcuthber

Who's Jack Marin?

TTJ

Maybe the son of Cheech

Hazza_08

I need some help community! I have Goodes and want to move him On. I can go Nathan van berlo, Sinclair + 100k or krakouer + 150k. This trade muse b done this week. Thnx

Phil

Krakouer. None of the 3 guys you mentioned are keepers so therefore it should be whoever will give you the better cash generation and Krak should

Simon

Lonie and Parker out for krak and Selwood a good move

SideBySidebottom

Hold Parker.

BlakeyP

Why would you trade lonie this week will still make money cause he is playing. If you trade to krak this week no money gen, but next week you made money off lonie then if you have to trade to krak his price has not changed

eatemalive

Lonie has a BE of -8, even if he is on your bench he will make cash, Parker will come good, not sure if he will make the Top 8 Mid list ,but i would hold ATM. Krak is a trade for next week anyway.

You BloodyRippa

Who gets more midfield time at Geelong with Bartel and now Stokes out?
I like Motlop. But if he gets hit by a big bodied mid they will need to carry him off on two separate stretchers.
Who steps up?

On the move

Thinking of trading out Nic Nat for Bont by moving TBC into R2 – gives me 60K plus 50K if Bont scores breakeven.
Have Goldy as R1 and most of the rookies – ranked in top 500.
Idea is that rucks not great value and Bont will be a keeper.

Kano

I would consider another way of getting bont (I’m waiting to see if he can consistently keep scoring well before I bring him in). TBC had an injury cloud after round 1. Neither he or nic nat are known for their durability so having him in the forward line as back up makes sense. I think only 1 or 2 ruckmen played all 22 games last season so in the high chance 1 misses a game its either cop a donut or waste a trade.Also if he’s you ruck then you will have to upgrade TBC at some stage so really you’re using 2 trades to bring in bonts and a ruckmen that will probably average close to nic nat anyway.

On the move

Makes perfect sense – thanks for reminding me why I got TBC in the first place but would love to have the Bont as my F4 and no other way. I'll take your advice and hold.

lostlarrikin

Ripper stuff Dex. Jack is a tempting prospect and could be a decent pod for half a season.
With Bont still on the bubble, I'm finding it hard to ignore the value and keeper potential he offers in the bartel exchange. Thanks for the analysis.

Johnny

How many trades do we need to save from now till the end of the year for injuries alone community? excluding upgrade trades I've got 7 trades for injuries bit worried I've cut my season short

Johnny

This is my team to date
Shaw Simpson Newnes hibberd saad Oxley Macintosh hamling
Fyfe Sloane Heppell Parker Griffen rich CEY Heeney vandenberg miller Sinclair
Goldstein Natanui read
Gray Martin swan Salem hogan Clarke Leonie McGrath

Johnny

Gray Martin swan Jmartin hogan Clarke Lonce McGrath ******

BundyBear

What do i do with Boak ?

CashCows

Dex you are killing me buddy..that was my uber POD, i thought i had made a bad call rd1, but he came on leaps and bounds in rd2/3..i am hoping he turns into a 500k keeper.

Mac

Thoughts on Kolo and Goodes out and Hugh Goddard and Brodie Smith in? That will be using the left over Gaz money but Goodes and Kolo are leaking cash and I'm hoping Goddard can get some games soon. Thoughts? Or should I just downgrade Goodes and hold Kolo?

Ryan

Hi guys, I'm thinking trading out Gibbs, swinging saad into mids and bringing Brodie smith into defence. I know you don't sideways trade premos but Gibbs seems to go missing throughout games, and puts in minimal effort at times. Thoughts appreciated

cooky

B Goodes what to do with him, have oxley, saad and mcintosh already i can go to a taylor hunt but is this a good move or waste trade.

KaleJ

I would trade him down to a rookie def like hugh goddard who will eventually play, he’s just losing you money especially with scores of 10

northernsoul74

Jake Kolo due to be named by Geelong. I expect Hamling to get named for the Doggies as well. Maybe hold a week or two and take a look at them. Either way Goodes needs to go soon.

KaleJ

Hey community,

I’m in a bit of a dilemma with my def, two in particular newnes and now gibson with frawley going down. Should I hold both? Trade both? Trade one?

The Bont

Wines and Deledio >> Sloane and THE BONT. Thoughts?

Jim

Went GAJ to JPK last week, was tossing up between him and Sloane all week but went JPK in the end looking at bringing in Sloane ASAP.

Thought the decision wouldn't really matter in the end, but it ended up costing me 50k + 110 points as I bring him in this week.

Lesson to take from this: EVERY DECISION MATTERS, SUPERCOACH GODS WILL HAVE THIER VENGEANCE, GAJ WILL RISE AGAIN.

Tofor

Would you trade Martin into the forward line for Bellchambers?? I’ve got Goldy and Mummy in RUC spots..