We have faced a thorough examination to our fortitude to start 2015. If Rocky or Sidebottom didn’t get you then God himself did.
If GAJ didn’t get you then this round it was either the late out of Bont, or the early injury to Bartel or the plethora of underperforming premiums that saw you come undone – whether it be JPK, Griffin, Parker, Goddard or Wines.
If before the start of this round I suggested Touk Miller would outperform those premiums, you would think I had lost the plot. But what if I told you Touk Miller would outperform Sam Jacobs even though the big ruckman would have 55 hitouts…..going from last year’s form and formula, you would think Sauce would be in for a king size 130 supercoach points – well you would be wrong by about half. 55 hitouts was good for 67 this week!
The formula for what determines an astute pick in our rucks lines has changed, and for all supercoaches, what we knew to be true, what we knew was tried, tested, observed and proven has changed. Whilst we knew there was a change from hitouts to hit outs to advantage to drive supercoach scoring, I think we may have underestimated the profound impact it would have on our rucks (I know I certainly have). To summarise this impact, I have compiled a table of the top 10 most owned ruckmen and included all premium ruckman.
To explain the last 3 columns of the table (the first 3 columns should be self-explanatory), namely:
- The “Starting P/Ave”, is the starting price to average of the player. That is the price equates to an average of this number as listed in this column.
- The “3 game ave” is what the player has averaged from rounds 1-3 (except Berger who was dropped before R3).
- What I have called the “Happy factor” is the positive or negative difference between the player’s 3 game average as compared to their starting price average.
With the caveat that 3 games is a very small sample size for averages, you can very quickly see that only one premium ruckman has so far justified his starting price – that is Todd Goldstein, who is currently averaging 14 points more than his starting price would have indicated (as per the Starting P/Ave column). SIGNIFICANTLY, the top 3 ruckman on the happy factor scale are all midprice selections in Grundy, Blicavs and Smith – all are averaging around the 95-98 mark and yet with reasonably low ownership levels. Not for this article, but at a later point and with more data, I will take a look at what has driven the scoring of our rucks. If you have selected a combination of any of the rucks in the green shaded area (green zone), I suspect you would be at the very sharp end of the overall rankings. Well played!
If you selected a ruckman from the blue shaded area (blue zone), I think you would also be reasonably happy. Whilst these ruckman have performed more in line with their starting price, at least you have not overpaid at all, and in some cases have acquired the ruckman at a discount – they are doing as you would expect, if not better. Important to note that Tom Bellchambers sits in the blue zone and is the most selected ruckman.
The area which deserves a lot of attention is the bottom of the table, the red zone, literally. You will be bleeding cash in the next few weeks if you have selected any of these ruckman. Just have a look at the names, they are luminaries in the world of Supercoach – Jacobs, Martin, McEvoy and Mummy! The change to the ruck rules is severely impacting these big boys.
So what do we do with this information and our rucks?
I hope the table has provided you with some food for thought. You may have other lines that need your attention, but perhaps a downgrade in your ruck line can help you fix another line.