Patch’s Panic Room – Round 3
G’day community. Massive week for all concerned with Supercoach this week. These are the trades that could make or break your season.
Previous winners have “traded arse off” in the first few weeks and gone BANG BANG to fix any holes and pick up all the right rookies. Unfortunately, the carnage has once again been severe this week, disrupting even the guys who run the thing.
Thankfully, the JR community is here to guide you through the Friday panic.
Our Lord and Saviour Gary Ablett
Gary Ablett is gone. We’re looking at indefinite leave, and he should take an indefinite leave from your team. It truly may be the end of an era. You can check out Lekdog’s majestic obituary for more details, but trade him out and put a rolled gold premium in his place. Fyfe/Pendlebury/Sloane/JPK
Massive concerns over the ankle of Scott Pendlebury, which would leave the Pies without their top 5 finishers in the Copeland Trophy. With Levi Greenwood out and Taylor Adams looking in doubt, the pies could be in deep, deep trouble. [Been named. He might be a late withdrawal, but for god’s sake don’t trade him.
Suffered a massive concussion last week after dominating off a wing. Andrew Capel from the Adelaide Advertiser is saying Smith will have a major concussion test, but it isn’t looking good.
He’s been named, but on the bench. Chance of a late withdrawal. HOLD HIM.
To miss. Again. The signs are getting ominous for Lids’ Achilles. Once again, Hardwick is saying it will only be a week, but I get the feeling he will be managed like this throughout the year. If you’ve picked him, I reckon you’ve got
Rumours he would miss 2-3 weeks after a knock surfaced early in the week. Has been cleared to play and named. Shouldn’t be a late withdrawal and he’s definitely not a sub risk unless he injures it in-game.
Out for 4-6 with glass ankles. The few that had him can’t hold him. If you’ve got a bit of spare cash, both Judd ($486,900) and Lachie Neale ($468,900) are averaging around 100 and are a good like-for-like swap. If you don’t have the cash, Daniel Rich will appreciate massively and will continue to score well, even if he attracts a tag. If you have more spare cash, check out some of the 550k options below.
Nick Dal Santo
Surgery on his hamstring. Gone. Out for months. At 553k, if you’re downgrading GAJ you should have cash to go to an ultra-premo. If you missed Griffin, you can jump on. You can pick up Ollie Wines, or you can pick up the #1 Supercoach player while he’s still under 510k – Dylan Shiel. He’s the one to jump on in my view. Scores of 136 and 149 in the first two rounds, and while they’ve had St Kilda and Gold Coast, he’s travelling in the right direction and is unlikely to be tagged. However, I prefer David Mundy at $549,200 from all of those. 119 and 150 – against Port and Geelong no less!
Out for 6-8 weeks. With so much else going on, it’s hard to find a way to justify trading him out. Unless you have missed one of the key rookies – who I will run through below – I’m sitting him on the pine at M11 until he hopefully returns during the byes, and is the advice I’d give everyone else with. Might move him to Krakouer in a few weeks if Krakouer looks a valid selection.
Is in. Is named in the centre. Yet I’m trading him for McGrath. He will definitely improve on his first week performance, and probably average 85, but the cash flow allows us to build up the warchest. If you’ve missed vandenBerg, Heeney or Ellis-Yolman you need them, so drop Cripps like… um… something you’d drop really quickly.
Hasn’t trained all week and is a risk of a late withdrawal. Hold, but beware.
Big sub risk. Might not even make the side as mentioned in the Thursday podcast. Offload if you have the trades to spare. This experiment has not paid off.
Dropped. Significant. You’ve gotta get rid of him. Bellchambers at a similar price, or even Brodie Grundy will play every game and make you 20k. Can’t hold him, community.
Despite its brilliant name, it needs to have a miss for a week while I toy with formatting – as I can’t patch up your side because all sides are very different beasts. I will do my best to respond to any comments left. However, I will give back with a new segment.
*segues to new segment*
New segment, community (surprise!) because price changes are now a thing we must contend with. I will very quickly run through the top 5 movers and shakers on the price front.
The Eddie Murphy’s
These are the blokes who are – like Eddie Murphy – going places in terms of price. (For anyone unfamiliar with the way “breakevens” work, to simplify some unholy maths, if a player exceeds their breakeven, they go up in price. If they score below it, they go down in price.)
-116 Kamdyn McIntosh
-104 Cam Ellis-Yolman
-99 Aaron vandenBerg
-90 Jesse Hogan
The Dan Akyroyd’s
These guys have been framed by the heartless Supercoach gods and are set to plummet in value. Now ignoring David Myers and Dale Thomasat #2 and #3 – who are out for extended periods of time – the list is as follows.
229 Our Lord and Saviour Sir Gary Ablett
211 Mitch Duncan
205 Joel Selwood
205 Nathan Jones
THE ROOKIE RUMBLE
What did I say last week? Something about costing 100 points if you get your rookies wrong? I misjudged Collingwood last week, as well as the role Adam Oxley looks to have settled into down at the Pies, but that is the fickle nature that is the jungle. The canopy of the jungle even dragged mid-pricer Brett Goodes into its dark depths, who scored 100 less than Oxley, and snared a Brownlow medallist in Adam Goodes. Let’s see which rookies will come out on top this week.
These guys are listed in order from who I think will score most to least.
Tough one this week, as McIntosh and Oxley have had big weeks, whereas Saad is consistent. You need all three in your side. All three will play and makes massive amounts of cash.
Adam Oxley – Appears to be one of the few Pies not called Scott Pendlebury that can use the ball well, and from match reports was running the ball out of defence and through the middle alongside Tom Langdon. Has had faith put in him to rebound and shouldn’t find the vest. Plays tonight, so if you’ve got a non-playing defender like Hamling, you can loophole him with Saad or McIntosh.
Adam Saad – been more consistent then both Oxley and McIntosh, but should be on the field if you can get him there. No sub risk at all. Should deliver us a 70 without too much hassle, please and thank you.
Kamdyn McIntosh – Playing Brisbane without Deledio in the side, he could score an 80. But why did Dimma put him on the bench? Gah! Gordon should get the snot vest 9 times out of 10, but god it’s making me uncomfortable. If you can loophole him with Oxley, do so.
Ciaran Byrne – playing his first game for the Blues on Saturday. Poised to line up on the half-back flank, and while he didn’t set the world on fire in the NAB, he averaged 55 with vest impact. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is subbed out, but should score us about 55.
Brendan Whitecross – Named in the 22, much to my surprise. Not sure if he’ll make the final cut, and even then probably won’t escape the vest.
Nathan Brown –Just don’t.
Jake Kelly – named onfield, but had a top score of 38 in the NAB cup from 75% game time. I can see the red vest already.
Much easier here. You need vandenBerg, Ellis-Yolman and Heeney. No exceptions. If you’ve missed them, pick ‘em up, now.
Aaron vandenBerg & Cam Ellis-Yolman – should be no vest risk here. Same with Ellis-Yolman. Lock ‘em up, Eddie.
Patrick Cripps – if you’re not moving him on, he is actually a solid selection. Named in the guts and should extract the pill. 80+ expected.
Isaac Heeney – Named onfield against the giants. Surely Horse Longmire will push him against an easier side. He’s played out both other games and should play 4 quarters.
Newton & Brayshaw – The vest should go to Jay Kennedy-Harris, so both Newton and Brayshaw should be free to roam as their side get thrashed by the in-form Crows. Won’t score spectacularly, but solid.
Nathan Krakouer – I wouldn’t put him on the field until we’ve seen his output. Scored 42 and 78 in his two NAB games, but I need to see results before I trade him in.
Touk Miller – producing sub like scores without the vest. Thanks, Touk. Nope.
Bendan Ah Chee – in line for the sub vest. No.
Remember when we had rookie rucks?
Pepperidge farm remembers.
Salem – no vest. Green light for starting in our sides.
Mitch Clark – same old. We’ll get an 80 or a 30, but it’s his 100th game and the Tomahawk’s 150th, so expect big things against a godless suns side.
Lonie – “what?!” I hear you say, but Lonie has been named on the field against a laughably weak Collingwood side. Could go big. I’m looping him personally, but think he’ll do well.
Jayden McGrath – done well so far and avoids the snot vest. Two ticks from me.
Jesse ‘Hulk’ Hogan – due to be wet in Adelaide and Melbourne will get drubbed. Throw the E on him if you can spare it. If you can’t, should rack up 55-60.
Ahmed Saad – could do well against an undermanned Collingwood, but I’m just not feeling it. Especially if Riewoldt pulls out and he has to contend with Nathan Brown.
Ciaran Byrne – same as DEF write-up.
Nathan Krakouer – not for mine, Krak.