Mad Mick’s Two Cents – The Week That Was
Good day community and welcome to this weeks; Mad Mick’s Two Cents.
Wow what a week we have had in Supercoach. It started with all those coaches who traded out Newnes, Selwood, Griffen, Martin etc cursing themselves for hitting the trade button after just one bad performance. Likewise, those that chased the points bringing in the likes of Walker cursed themselves for getting sucked in. Of course you and I just sat back and held our trades (unless we moved on a LTJ player of course).
We then had the early week “will I, won’t I” trade out Gary Ablett, only for that decision to be taken away with the news he is going to miss more than 3 weeks. Finally the wave of hype hit regarding the necessity of having to bring in both Dylan Shiel and Marcus Bontempelli.
As I am writing this piece Shiel has been traded into 9,116 or 4.93% of teams. This will put his ownership after this round at just shy of 6%, as very few coaches have picked him in their initial teams. Bontempelli’s numbers are far more staggering. At present 22,844 or 12.34% of teams have traded him in this week. This will put Bontempelli ownership at 43% of teams, making him the 4th most popular premium player in the competition behind only Gray, Swan and Fyfe.
Hop Topic – Is the “Bonts” a must have player?
This question has been hyped up as a season defining decision and one we must all get right this week. I’m not quite sure it’s as season defining as it has been made out to be. The big question for me when deciding if I should bring in a player during the year is if this player will be a top 6 player for a forward or defender, or a top 8 player for a midfielder. Your initial squad is the place to take chances on players but the art of good trading is to only bring in players that will be in the top spots in their respective positions.
So is Bontempelli a top 6 forward, or at the very least going to average close enough to the top 6 that any loss of points could be considered negligible. Last year the 6th highest scoring forward averaged 102 Supercoach points so in order for Bontempelli to be considered a success he will need to get very close to this number from here on out.
What makes this so hard to gauge is the fact we have very limited numbers to base this decision off. Sure he has scored well in his opening two games but I don’t get his scores for those games, only the ones from here on out. We must remember he is only a second year player who has only played 18 games at AFL level. I am not taking away from the fact that this kid is special but is he really going to be able to produce the goods over a full season.
I always like to draw comparisons between players in similar circumstances. Not too many players have beaten the second year blues but 3 come to mind over the last 4 years – Jaeger O’Meara, Oliver Wines and Nathan Fyfe. The table below shows their progress over the first 2 years of their careers.
Encouragingly all these players prove what is possible and if I was to draw comparisons on game style between any of these players and Bontempelli, he would be more similar to Fyfe than the other two. Both Fyfe and Bonts have strikingly similar circumstances too. Both played 16 games in their opening year and both were forced to take on more responsibility in a midfield group in their second year. Fyfe was forced to step up due to the injury to Michael Barlow while Bontempelli has now got to step up in the absence of Tom Liberatore.
Fyfe did something extraordinary in his second year to average 108 and I’m not suggesting that Bontempelli will match this number. However when I compare the games of O’Meara and Wines I become more confident that he will at least be on par with these two players and average close to the 100 point mark over the year.
Being young and expecting a hard tag to go his way I do expect some really terrible scores to run through his average though. Fyfe had scores of 49, 58, 71, 80 and 85 in his second year and I will guarantee you Bontempelli will have some similar turds run through his scores this year too. This is where I think people are getting carried away with this “make or break” decision on whether to get him in this week or not. I know his BE is massive (low) this week but too be honest I’d expect his price will fall back down to $450k at some point during the year, allowing all those who miss him now to pick him up later.
I don’t always go with the shoal but I will be bringing the “Bont” in this week, but if you have holes in your team that need fixing then I’d advise you address them instead of sacrificing your structures just to get the “Bont” in. He is by no means the must have player that the masses are saying you need to trade in this week.
Predict a 98 average from here on out – just enough to justify a selection as my F6 at full upgrade.
Dylan Shiel
Anybody who has listened to me over the past couple of years will know I have been hyping Shiel as the next fantasy beast. It makes me sick in the stomach that I chose the safer proven option in Griffen over Shiel this year. I have a great temptation to bring him in this week but unfortunately the same rules apply and I can’t let emotion dictate my trading plans.
Is Shiel going to be a top 8 midfielder? I have no doubt that this is a breakout year for Shiel but something extraordinary would have to happen for him to finish as one of the top 8 midfielders. Last season the 8th highest scoring midfielder averaged 114 Supercoach points. From the best of my knowledge the last player to have such a significant jump in average was Patrick Dangerfield in 2012, going from an 80 avgerage to 118 average. Dangerfield was the clear star of the Adelaide midfield that year, whereas Shiel has to compete with Ward, Griffen and Treloar as the number one midfielder in the GWS team.
I think we can draw comparisons for Shiel a little closer to home. Treloar had his breakout year in 2014 going from an 87 average to a 107 average. I’d expect Shiel to finish this year close to the same 107 average. This isn’t that bad of a result for his current price but unfortunately I have taken my two speculative selections in Griffen and Parker and must now fill the remaining spots with proven elite players. It will be a decision I will regret for the year, with my only saving grace being I managed to snag Shiel in my Supercoach Draft team.
I predict an average of 104 from here on out – not enough to justify a selection as my M8 at full upgrade.
The hidden Gem – Shane Savage
Sometimes there is a lot of noise generated about certain players which allows other to sail under the radar. Possibly the best corrective option this week is Shane Savage, yet nobody has mentioned his name. This is a perfect time for savvy coaches to snag him while everybody is looking the other way.
What you might not know!
Savage struggled in the early part of last season after his move to the Saints from the Hawks. So much so he was dropped and forced to play VFL until he was given a reprieve in round 14, coming back in to play a new role off the half back. Since round 14 in 2014 he has now averaged 93 Supercoach points and has scored 100+ in 6 out those 10 games.
Top 6 defenders will struggle to beat a 93 average so if Savage can maintain those numbers he would certainly justify season long keeper status. If you got any holes in your defence then look no further than this man.
I predict an average of 94 from here on out – more than enough to justify a selection as my D6 at full upgrade.
Thank me later but shusssssh – don’t tell anybody else.
Well community that’s my two cents – how much value you assign to it is entirely up to you however.
Stay tuned…..
Mick the Mad Irishman
Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.
I haves S Selwood injured, with Tyson stinking it up. Would dumping them to bring in Sloane and Van Berlo be a good trade or should I hold Tyson for now? I have all the main bubble rookies, but only concern is Van Berlo keeping his current form.
l think they are good trades but maybe change van berlo for vandenberg unless you already have in
Already have vandenberg
Nice one Mick. Loved the the Bont Fyfe Wines & Jaeger comparison. I'd suggest the other 3 boys played in teams where they didn't cop attention yr 2. Wines nup others got tagged. Jaeger nup Gary got the tag. Fyfe nup others ahead. The Bont will cop more attention than they did in the 2nd year & I think it will take it's toll. Love watching him but can't pick him. Great article as always Mick.
I agree totally Pie. Who else will be tagged at bulldogs?
the other guys were further down the pecking order. It's a shame for Bonts' SC scores but i reckon he will be better for the tag and make him work harder. I think next year he will be one of my first picks….
Been in my team since day 1…. #bloodygun
A gun is someone who performs at elite level for years. He's just a kid just out of nappies and his bottom's smelly.
Gooday Community!
Wondering who should cop the VC out of Sloane, Danger, Gray, Swan or Dusty?
Need two on field in my defence out of McIntosh, Oxley and Saad.
Need two on field in my forwards out of Clark, Salem and Hogan.
Cheers For All Thoughts! 🙂
I like Sloane as a VC, in the defense Saad looks like the safest bet probably followed by McIntosh. In the forward line, if you have Salem I think that you have to have him on field while Hogan/Clark is a 50/50 for mine.
Raining in adelaide! I’m going Shiel for vice and Fyfe as captain
I think saad will be the most consistent 80-90 point player. I’ve got all 3 as I imagine most do. Having hamling on the bench gives me the luxury of loopholing Oxley. If he does poorly, switch McIntosh back on field. Mcintosh still had 24 possessions and 7 marks last week, just had a fair few clangers that affected his score. So if I was forced to make a choice I would probably go McIntosh.
hey there's another article that lists the rookies in order of how much they will score- but they are only suggestions. the idea of being a SC is too make our own decisions. and to think outside the box.
Nat Fyfe will C every week for the majority of games. those who have the guts to go sloane, goldy, pendles, jpk on the right day may just come out on top. oxley could score 50 this week or 120. which do you think he will score? thats what counts
Hope you’ve got Swannie like I have – 70pts at h/t!
Nice! I ended up not choosing Swannie as VC instead I have backed Sloane to go big tomorrow 🙂 Hope it pays of in the end! Swan is killing em tho 105 3QT!
I've had him since Rnd 1 and pleased to say the least with his output. I think he'll get to around mid season before he runs out of steam, at which time I'd be happy to cash in on his SSS. With respect to this week's game, I don't think the Hawks will be put a hard tag on him as such – I think there's some in front of him that they'll look at first – Dalhaus, Boyd and Macrae for instance. Also, I reckon their sheer arrogance and the sting from last week's surprise loss is likely to see them take the field and simply blast the Doggies off the park!
Is it worth trading Cripps to NVB
Same goes with Lamb to Mcgrath
No, Cripps is playing this week.
Hold lamb or trade to lonie or McGrath? Newton to vanberlo or hold as well
Out: Goodes
In: T.McDonald or S.Savage?
Savage.
hehehehehehehehe i guess you havent read this article?
You're not that mad Mick. Great timing for this top read.
Started with Gaz, Wells and Rich. The idea was if Gaz got off to a stinker, I would trade him out along with the worst performing player of Wells and Rich.
Already have Fyfe, Pendles and Sloane, so would prefer not to trade in a round 12 prem. (JPK).
Looking at – Lewis and the Bont. (injury cloud over Bont has me nervous)
Also considering – Wines and Dangerfield or Wines and Prestia.
The trades I'm most keen on is Jordan Lewis and Dylan Shiel. Lewis will be a keeper. Shiel may not, but with a breakeven of 15, he is going to make some good coin in the next few weeks. Could almost be a direct swap for Joel Selwood, (breakeven 203) in the next few weeks.
Would welcome some advice on which prem combo you would choose to replace Gaz and Wells.
Hey Mick, I'm not picking up the Bont as I have no reason to downgrade (my mids are Fyfe, JPK, Pendles, Selwood, Griffen) as I started without king Gaz. I would like to note that he averaged 102?? SC points in his last 10 games of 2014 (if i recall correctly).
92 SC ponits over the last 10 games
Welcome
A couple of them were scaled up a lot which isn’t happening as much this year
Is it worth downgrading Selwood to Shiel, knowing that I'm going to lose a bit of money from Selwood in the coming weeks and possibly gain a bit from Shiel?
No point wasting a trade, Selwood is a keeper
No way! Selwood is going to go off against GCS this weekend…..He's a keeper!
Do you mean Joel? The same guy who has received 148 Brownlow votes over the last 7 years?
Should I trade Beams? Should I downgrade Selwood? Haven't we learned just over a week ago when people traded out D. Martin to T. Walker?
Hmmm do I go B Goodes to Savage or Oxley? Thoughts appreciated
I would guess Oxley….I had him on my side since the start of the season
Some reason Jock didn’t start with Oxley but he is stuffing him in this week
Jock had his eye only on Goddard, talked him up all pre season and hasn't even played a bloody game…. He definitely is a Saints supporter and I got a feeling he's mob will get up tonight against the wobbles!
Colliwobbles died in 1990. I've got the t-shirt.
Nice work Mick.
On Monday I was all ragey and chomping to go Gaz/Cripps into Bont/Shiel.
Have simmered down, taken an extra blue pill, and now steering away from both.
As you rightly point out, the odds of Shiel being a top 8 mid by season end is pretty slim.
My concerns on Bont are purely on his (suspected) injury. If he doesn't play, it will be a last minute decision by the Dogs. Mayhem!
If he does play (and why the hell would they risk him?) I see Langford all over him like a leech on a Hippo's delivered placenta. That calf injury will be a constant source of entertainment for the Hawks while Bont is at the bottom of every huddle.
I really want to see Bont over the next 3 wks before I commit a trade.
Lost spot on mate. If you dont have him why take on another risky trade. I love this kid, on another site my avatar is this kid and pendles "The old and the new" I had him from the start so keeping him until he runs out of puff or maybe stays as D6.
God help us next year. Also loved the leech reference. Will be interesting to see what Langford can do if Bont plays.
Bont is definitely a top 6 forward and I'll get as a forward once my forward rookies mature. Think it's dangerous to use the Ablett trade for the Bont this week especially if he scores a 72 and Fyfe, Sloane or Lewis score 130+ . Even if you swing the Bont forward you are likely having to use a rookie as another trade or as on field coverage for the loss of Ablett
What is a better trade: Goodes > Oxley or Cripps > NVB. No bench cover in defence as Goddard is D8.
I would go Godard to Oxley. You do know that Godard isn’t playing?
But goodes is more
I took a punt on bonts from the start of the year as a pod!!Not anymore! What do u think his ceiling price will be?
My calculation he will hit ceiling at $539k
Selwood could be down to that by then for a straight swap if you are inclined. Would you trade him out if he holds form against Hawks, Swans et al.
Unless he gets a long term injury bigger spuds growing in my backline. Plus need some fertilizer on Wells.
Newton to NVB?
NVB will appreciate much quicker, and with the likes of Krakouer and Lambert coming back in, fast may be better than slow
Thoughts?
To everyone wanting to trade NVB in for Cripps out- yes do it. It will give my team a distinct advantage as well as keeping me 1 trade up on everyone who does it.
Seriously though- I am assuming EVERYONE who is considering that trade never watches football. or should i say have never seen NVB play and Cripps play lately.
What makes anyone think NVB is better than Cripps? And are they serious? And is everyone here suggesting that trade trolling? I am totally bemused as to why A) people would waste a sideways trade in round 3 and B) who would think NVB is worth a trade and a sideways trade and C) who actually thinks NVB is better than Cripps?
Is the joke on me or are people really considering using a trade to bring in NVB???
thanks in advance
Early Cash generation will cost trades, a lot of trades. 1 to get NVB in and another to trade him out, usually the second trade needs another one to create the cash to get a premo.
I prefer to wait with a war chest and pick up the fallen premiums.
What is the better trade:
Cripps to NVB
KK to Savage
None… both sideways trades. Pointless.
Don’t do either. Waste
Would love to do this trade myself and choking on the french fries KK is putting up. Thought he would play mids and get more ball. Hanging out to do KK to Smith. Will downgrade a ruck if I have to. Maric to Grundy or Belly. Assumes no more nasty surprises.
pretty sure bont would break langford in 2 if langford trys any ruff stuff. imagine a concrete meatball vs a swollen green pea.
bonts is fine- and i would actually say that the person is is tagging bonts should really consider themselves being tagged… by bonts. coz if the tagger gets the pill bonts will slam the tagger. heed these words.
also bonts will never be cheap this cheap again…….. ever!!!
Bonts is a jet. But you are making him sound as if he is untagable. I doubt that as a second year player. His scoring will fluctuate wildly. I don't like his draw over the next five weeks or so and reports that he is sore. I think he could disappoint those who have jumped on from a scoring point of view over the coming weeks. He will be a future star though.
Agree Bonts will dump his tagger into the turf a few times. If he PLAYS?? The big question. I beleive he is a 100+ Fwd for years end and started with him. Would I bring him in this week? Hmmm dont think so. I think not starting B Smith is a bigger problem for me. Would like him to be available on bubble next week and then bring him in for KK or Goodes.
Also agree it is unlikely Bonts will be this cheap in the future. Fyfe/Pendles type. Doesn't make it a certainty to bring him in though. Cash generation is a furfy. If you bring him in it should be as a keeper and D6 at year end so it is percieved EOY value against current price. If you dont see him being a keeper then rookies will generate more cash.
Bontempelli is nineteen years old. He's young and tall and therefore his core is weak. If he leaves himself open he'll be at risk.
Want to get more security in my mids as I only went with 4 premos so think it makes sense to bring in NVB.
My bench has anderson , miller , Steele.
I am using Steele to access my fwd bench of Hogan and lonie if needed. So am thinking of booting either Anderson or miller for NVB.
Miller looks like he will pretty much play fwd most of the time so limited point scoring on offer. Anderson has more potential although I’m getting a bit tired of sweating the hawks side and then sub every week..
What do you guys think?
I have a similar dilemma with miller and Anderson. I’m considering vandemberg in for 1 of these guys. Anderson played pretty crappy last week so he may not get a game this week – if he does then ill prob stick with him and give miller the boot. Clarke really rates Anderson and I think he”ll get games but geez there are so many good players at hawks ready to step in.
Worth trading Lids for Bont? Have enough $ to get JPK otherwise thru switch (I have Gray currently in the guts) and that’s what I’m leaning towards but worried about missing the Bont traiń
Thoughts?
If I had Delidio I would get rid of him. If he comes back next week he will still be under injury cloud. Risk
THE BONT
Is it worth trading out ibbo for savage ?
Don't sideways trade, I would only upgrade/downgrade ibbo
JPK or Sloane… cannot decide
Flip a coin… I'd go Sloane
Will Thompson coming back effect Sloane's scoring?
No. Sloane's a star. I don't have him but can't wait to get him in.
Got Goodes, do i hold him or trade him down to Hamling/Goddard who will play later in the season. Already have Saad, McIntosh, Oxley
Possibly. Goodes is named last on the extended interchange which is a worry, you can do so if you want 70k extra
May as well hold him if you've got no viable option, Mac. His price is not going to plummet
Thoughts on Tory Dickson? I've upgraded Lamb to him or Honeychurch. I'm convinced with Dickson because his scores so far have been 82 and 119, BE of -54, and is named to play in the wing against the Hawks. 248k
Averaging 14 touches, Stevo. Not enough for me. Kicked 6 goals so far so will need to keep that up to continue posting high numbers
Sloane has the much easier draw, but Thompson coming in might take some of his points. Toss a coin, you'll do well with either. Reckon the herd is going with Sloane.
Will Thompson take points?
I’m going to try the VC on Travis Cloke tonight. Gut feeling
Good luck with that Derek, sometimes you just gotta go with your instincts….
It’s a tall out of form big man in the wet at night mate. But you have big balls. Good luck
Is it raining?
They said on the radio it's been wet
Geez, woulda been a good call Derek if he could kick straight
He did ok. Not unhappy having him
Ibbotson to savage? Or is that a waste of a trade ? Or should i get adam oxley in for a rookie who isn’t getting a game?
WASTE
Oxley a must have
Never done the Capt' Loophole before ….
Do I put Captain on a someone not playing , then put Vice Captain on someone playing in an early game …. take score if it's good , if not then switch Captaincy to Someone else playing ?
Thanks
Yes. For example.
Put the VC on Sloane and the C on Tom Read.
If Sloane gets a score you are unhappy with, put the captain on someone playing later like Fyfe.
BUT, make sure when you have the C on Tom Read at the start, you have your emergency on your ruckman who will be playing, for example Maric.
Thanks Mac : ) …. so I gather Tom Read is not playing
No Tom Read is not playing
Which trade is better, goodes to oxley (210k in war chest) or n.brown to oxley (123k in wc)?
Goodes to Oxley for extra cash and someone for bench coverage in brown still
Goodes
Community,
Going GAJ down to Sloane, should I go
Miller > NVB or Rich?
Would it be to many Adeladie mid fielders having Sloane, NVB and CEY?
Cheers
Nvb, and no, with the exception of Sloane, the other two aren't keepers, just waiting for the price rises
Ive seen many people picking Sloane over JPK. Does the return of Thompson mean Sloane will not score as many points?
Cockatoo to Van Berlo
or
Lambert to Lonie
with all other rookies accounted for on every line!
cant do both due to cash!
Thoughts community?
Nvb
Anderson to NVB or Miller to NVB
Thoughts ?
oxley, saad and mcintosh, pick 2 to put on the field
cheers
Oxley and McIntosh
Oxley, McIntosh… Saad will struggle against the Cats at Kardinia Park.
If I trade tonite can I do another tomorrow
Yes as long as you’re not trading players from st Kilda or Collingwood.
Yep
I don't think so champ…
With Goodes out (presumably) My backline will field all 3 of Saad, Oxley and Mcintosh, with Brown as D7 cover. Hoping this can see me through the next 2-3 weeks and start bringing in premiums. Currently have 5 mids in Fyfe, Lewis, JPK, Pendles and Griffin. Ruck is Mummy and Goldy with TBC at F4. I have all the rookies I need, and was hoping to target a Selwood in the mids or maybe Goddard, Harvey or another forward ASAP if my backline can play every game for 2-3 weeks, avoiding using Brown. Is this too much risk?
ATM these 3 defender rooks look like holding their own against the mid rooks, which would make bringing in Mid premiums better for my scores. Griffin was originally a placeholder for GAJ and Rockliff, but now I might try to force him to M9 by seasons end as there is no rush on either of those 2. He could easily become Sloane or Selwood, but Im thinking the trade is better later on.
Any thoughts on how fielding the 3 rookie defenders for hopefully 3 weeks will plan out? Chances are I'll probly be forced to play Brown.
Oh how I wish Goodes was out. Give me the loophole I needed.
The three rookies are doing a good job and will be ready for slaughtering in a couple of weeks. Pity there arent more dpp players.
Oh how I wish Goodes was out. Give me the loophole I needed.
Bont out
So there's rumours that theres a chance Bont could be a late out and Boyd aswell- which Boyd? they didn't say
Where did you hear that mate?
They didn't hear it anywhere. They just have nothing constructive to add
Think they are referring to this …..
"Bontempelli was named in the team and is expected to fly to Tasmania as the Dogs give him time to be fit, but he has struggled with tightness and soreness in the calf all week. "
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/hawthorn-hawks/key-h…
This will happen all year and scares the living turd out of me.
Late outs when im at the pub watching a game and not paying attention!!!
Get the Footy Alerts App Nate,
So would you recommend goodes to savage?
thoughts?
Beams to Rich
Goodes to either b.smith or gibson???
could be some good cash generation in the first trade and second trade bulsters up backline.
Who on should I put on field ?
Oxley , Saad or Goodes ( yes I still have him atm : )
Vandenberg , Ellis-Yolmen or Heeney
Saad is the only consistent def rookie so far so I'd pick him, and ellis-yolmen, could deliver a 90+ score
Lewis for Gazza and Rich for Cripps
Or
Lewis for Gazza and Goodes for Savage?
Bearing in mind I also have Newnes in the defense
lonie or mcgrath?
or is it worth trading goodes to bruce or hunt?
dylan shiel for ryan griffen
or h lumbumba to b smith
also should i start lonie or m clarke?
That's a lot of sideways trading my man
Both sideways trades. Why do it. Look at upgrading Wells/Rich or whatever mid pricer is in your backline.
Riewoldt out.
Seriously community, look @ the teams these 3 blokes have played! There’s your reason for their high scores! Bring them in @ your own peril! They are ‘flash in the pants” players!
Agreed on all but savage. I actually really like that selection, and you could argue the stronger teams will force the ball in saints defence more which will only help savage's output
Savage 70's, shiel 50's…..2 down one to go!
And the bont is out! #supercoach
sen 1116 7.03pm – N Riewoldt OUT
Can u still trade after lockout?
yeah mate, partial lockout means you can trade players that haven't played yet throughout the round.
Start Ahmed Saad or Lonie??
Lonie
Reason why spends more time up the ground!?