Good day community and welcome to this weeks; Mad Mick’s Two Cents.
Wow what a week we have had in Supercoach. It started with all those coaches who traded out Newnes, Selwood, Griffen, Martin etc cursing themselves for hitting the trade button after just one bad performance. Likewise, those that chased the points bringing in the likes of Walker cursed themselves for getting sucked in. Of course you and I just sat back and held our trades (unless we moved on a LTJ player of course).
We then had the early week “will I, won’t I” trade out Gary Ablett, only for that decision to be taken away with the news he is going to miss more than 3 weeks. Finally the wave of hype hit regarding the necessity of having to bring in both Dylan Shiel and Marcus Bontempelli.
As I am writing this piece Shiel has been traded into 9,116 or 4.93% of teams. This will put his ownership after this round at just shy of 6%, as very few coaches have picked him in their initial teams. Bontempelli’s numbers are far more staggering. At present 22,844 or 12.34% of teams have traded him in this week. This will put Bontempelli ownership at 43% of teams, making him the 4th most popular premium player in the competition behind only Gray, Swan and Fyfe.
Hop Topic – Is the “Bonts” a must have player?
This question has been hyped up as a season defining decision and one we must all get right this week. I’m not quite sure it’s as season defining as it has been made out to be. The big question for me when deciding if I should bring in a player during the year is if this player will be a top 6 player for a forward or defender, or a top 8 player for a midfielder. Your initial squad is the place to take chances on players but the art of good trading is to only bring in players that will be in the top spots in their respective positions.
So is Bontempelli a top 6 forward, or at the very least going to average close enough to the top 6 that any loss of points could be considered negligible. Last year the 6th highest scoring forward averaged 102 Supercoach points so in order for Bontempelli to be considered a success he will need to get very close to this number from here on out.
What makes this so hard to gauge is the fact we have very limited numbers to base this decision off. Sure he has scored well in his opening two games but I don’t get his scores for those games, only the ones from here on out. We must remember he is only a second year player who has only played 18 games at AFL level. I am not taking away from the fact that this kid is special but is he really going to be able to produce the goods over a full season.
I always like to draw comparisons between players in similar circumstances. Not too many players have beaten the second year blues but 3 come to mind over the last 4 years – Jaeger O’Meara, Oliver Wines and Nathan Fyfe. The table below shows their progress over the first 2 years of their careers.
Encouragingly all these players prove what is possible and if I was to draw comparisons on game style between any of these players and Bontempelli, he would be more similar to Fyfe than the other two. Both Fyfe and Bonts have strikingly similar circumstances too. Both played 16 games in their opening year and both were forced to take on more responsibility in a midfield group in their second year. Fyfe was forced to step up due to the injury to Michael Barlow while Bontempelli has now got to step up in the absence of Tom Liberatore.
Fyfe did something extraordinary in his second year to average 108 and I’m not suggesting that Bontempelli will match this number. However when I compare the games of O’Meara and Wines I become more confident that he will at least be on par with these two players and average close to the 100 point mark over the year.
Being young and expecting a hard tag to go his way I do expect some really terrible scores to run through his average though. Fyfe had scores of 49, 58, 71, 80 and 85 in his second year and I will guarantee you Bontempelli will have some similar turds run through his scores this year too. This is where I think people are getting carried away with this “make or break” decision on whether to get him in this week or not. I know his BE is massive (low) this week but too be honest I’d expect his price will fall back down to $450k at some point during the year, allowing all those who miss him now to pick him up later.
I don’t always go with the shoal but I will be bringing the “Bont” in this week, but if you have holes in your team that need fixing then I’d advise you address them instead of sacrificing your structures just to get the “Bont” in. He is by no means the must have player that the masses are saying you need to trade in this week.
Predict a 98 average from here on out – just enough to justify a selection as my F6 at full upgrade.
Anybody who has listened to me over the past couple of years will know I have been hyping Shiel as the next fantasy beast. It makes me sick in the stomach that I chose the safer proven option in Griffen over Shiel this year. I have a great temptation to bring him in this week but unfortunately the same rules apply and I can’t let emotion dictate my trading plans.
Is Shiel going to be a top 8 midfielder? I have no doubt that this is a breakout year for Shiel but something extraordinary would have to happen for him to finish as one of the top 8 midfielders. Last season the 8th highest scoring midfielder averaged 114 Supercoach points. From the best of my knowledge the last player to have such a significant jump in average was Patrick Dangerfield in 2012, going from an 80 avgerage to 118 average. Dangerfield was the clear star of the Adelaide midfield that year, whereas Shiel has to compete with Ward, Griffen and Treloar as the number one midfielder in the GWS team.
I think we can draw comparisons for Shiel a little closer to home. Treloar had his breakout year in 2014 going from an 87 average to a 107 average. I’d expect Shiel to finish this year close to the same 107 average. This isn’t that bad of a result for his current price but unfortunately I have taken my two speculative selections in Griffen and Parker and must now fill the remaining spots with proven elite players. It will be a decision I will regret for the year, with my only saving grace being I managed to snag Shiel in my Supercoach Draft team.
I predict an average of 104 from here on out – not enough to justify a selection as my M8 at full upgrade.
The hidden Gem – Shane Savage
Sometimes there is a lot of noise generated about certain players which allows other to sail under the radar. Possibly the best corrective option this week is Shane Savage, yet nobody has mentioned his name. This is a perfect time for savvy coaches to snag him while everybody is looking the other way.
What you might not know!
Savage struggled in the early part of last season after his move to the Saints from the Hawks. So much so he was dropped and forced to play VFL until he was given a reprieve in round 14, coming back in to play a new role off the half back. Since round 14 in 2014 he has now averaged 93 Supercoach points and has scored 100+ in 6 out those 10 games.
Top 6 defenders will struggle to beat a 93 average so if Savage can maintain those numbers he would certainly justify season long keeper status. If you got any holes in your defence then look no further than this man.
I predict an average of 94 from here on out – more than enough to justify a selection as my D6 at full upgrade.
Thank me later but shusssssh – don’t tell anybody else.
Well community that’s my two cents – how much value you assign to it is entirely up to you however.
Mick the Mad Irishman
Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.