Dex Files – Marcus Bontempelli
Community, I think I need to clarify this segment to you. I used the wrong analogy last week. I mentioned the “player of the week” – this may have confused you. What I’m getting at is; this segment is more about the “value pick of the week” or similar.
The player I select may not have smashed out a 150, or even been in the top 50 scores for the week – just a value selection for our teams.
Now, this week I look at Marcus “Bont” Bontempelli.
Gee-Whiz, this kid can play. 2 weeks in a row, he’s knocked out 120+ scores with a 126 and a 142. At 422k; if you started him – you’d be tickled pink! He’s on the bubble (so to speak) and even if he scores a 94, as projected; he will rise by 50k this week. What we need to work out is:
Is he worth a trade if we don’t have him?
We need to remember; “Bont” is only in his second year. Make no mistake – the kid will be a star, but will he get the “second year blues”?
I don’t think he will.
Let’s look at his numbers this season: Bont is averaging 24.5 disposals (15.5 kicks, 13.5 Contested) at 68% DE, 3.5 marks, 10 – I repeat TEN – tackles, 6 clearances, 1 rebound 50, 7 inside 50’s and 3 clangers for 134 SC from 85.5% ToG. Granted; he hasn’t been tagged – he tackles and he can win his own ball.
Yes; only two weeks have passed, and yes; Dogs have won both games – BUT… let’s say Bont averages 100 from here to the bye – which considering he averaged 95 in the nab challenge from similar ToG and similar game stats – he should appreciate around 110k.
One thing a lot of people are mentioning is the “certainty” he will be tagged. Yep, I think he will – but look at his numbers, he’s a tackling machine (4 pts per tackle) and a shade over 55% of his disposals have been contested. I don’t think a hard tag will affect his output drastically. I think the Doggies new game-plan suits his style of play and consequently – his SC output.
Last year, with McCartney as coach and being sub once, “Bont” Averaged 15.9 disposals (8.3 kicks, 7.5 contested) at 67.3% DE, 2.9 marks, 3.4 tackles, 2.3 clearances, 1 R50, 4.2 I50’s, .9 goals and 1.6 clangers a game. He averaged 76.8 SC in this time.
Take out his sub game, his SC average jumped to 82.8 in a turd of a Dogs team, and in his first year. He’s only going to get better community.
The question is – these are all hypotheticals by the way – if he averages 100 until the bye; he should be around 535k, and if a super-elite like Selwood drops a spud; you could move him on for a Selwood pre-bye, for effectively a straight swap.
What are the risks of trading to “Bont”?
There is really only one I can think of – unless you plan on keeping him.
If “Bont” drops a 60-70 point game, his appreciation will be severely stunted. He’ll either make little coin, or even lose value.
Have a backup plan for the event this happens.
Will you downgrade him or will you keep him? Don’t sideways from “Bont” if you decide to trade him in.
Does a prospective 110k appreciation warrant two trades?
I remember last year – it was post round 2 and Cotchin hadn’t given me much. I wasn’t happy, and I remember our good friend Pieman called in that week and suggested a move that I too was contemplating – Cotchin out, Matt Thomas in. WHAT?
“You must back your premiums” we always say. I say, yes this is true. But post round 2 trades are your correctives. Thomas was averaging 120 from his two games; Cotchin was averaging an ordinary 101 (for a 570k+ “Premium”).
I moved on Cotch for Thomas for an immediate 322k in kitty. Thomas only averaged 82 for the time I had him (Cotch averaged 100 until bye), I moved Thomas on in round 6, making 122k. Not that much in the scheme of things – but it did let me instantly upgrade Rohan pre-round 3 and I had enough cash left over next round to move Caddy up to Breust. Admittedly I should have gone Gray – but what I’m getting at is one downgrade can get you enough funds to upgrade 2 or 3 mid-priced players.
Aren’t trades worth gold though?
We’re always going on about plans, and I’m going to re-iterate this sentiment. If you plan your trading, you should do fine – even if you get thrown an LTI.
At the end of round 6 last year, I’d already used 8 trades, but I’d moved in 4 keepers and made around 5-600k in funds (mixed from rookie appreciation and risky downgrades that paid off).
I planned to use the funds to move on an underperforming player, with the aim to strengthen my other lines – I worked for me, and it is something I’m planning on doing this year again.
For me, “Bont” will come in with the aim to move him on by his bye to a super-elite. (I will be downgrading an under-performing premium). Thus making me money and only (hopefully) suffering a small drop in output.
I can see plenty arguing that I’m trading too aggressively; I say it’s a viable strategy to make money.
Is “Bont” a keeper?
Libba is out for the season. Everyone knows this; but what you may not know is – including NAB 2015 – “Bont” averages 110 SC without Libba in the team.
Combining 2014 (McCartney coach), Season 2015 and NAB 2015, “Bont” averages 102.42 SC.
“Bont” averages 79.4 with Jong in the team (110 this year including NAB).
He averages 103.8 with Wallis in the team (122.5 this year including NAB).
I’ll just say, if “Bont” is averaging 110+ by the bye – I will keep him. It’s as simple as that.
Well Community, What are your plans for “Bont”? Is he a keeper or is he fool’s gold? We would love to hear from you below.