Patch’s Panic Room – Round 2

Published by Patch on

Deploying-a-patch-management-processG’day community, Patch here. You may remember me from such articles such as The Luck of the Draw, and…. erm… this one.

But I feel we’ll become well acquainted in the coming season, community, as I’ll bring you the news and updates from the week you need to win those office leagues, to be the king of the schoolyard, to rub the dirt in the face of your mates.

This is the Friday Wrap, where I’ll wrap up the week of Supercoach significance, rookie wrap-ups, the likely subs and anything else, all sitting here in one neat package.


I’m going to look at any holes that may be appearing in sides due to late outs, suspension, injuries.

Gary Ablett Jnr

The bloke’s not right. Dear old Gary’s shoulder is a miss. He’ll struggle to reach 100 this week, let alone the 135 his average suggests or the 150 we want from GAJ playing St Kilda. But in the sage words of Throttlefinger, “you lie in the bed you’ve made”. Rumours coming out of the Gold Coast indicated the plan was to sub The Great Gary off at 3QT against Melbourne, yet they kept him on hoping he’d drag them over the line. Given his shoulder last week, if the suns are up by four goals late in the game, Gary might be due to be subbed off. Do not put the ‘C’ on him, but by gum don’t trade him out at the last minute. If you are thinking of dropping him; make sure you’ve got a thought-out plan to get him back in, and then a backup plan for when that one stuffs up.

Brett Deledio

Will miss this week. Richmond and Lids himself are making the right noises indicating he’ll be back next week. You’ve got to hold him. Stick him on the pine and pop your Lonies, Lambert or Hogan onto the field for round 2.

Jimmy Bartel

Got knocked out in a sickening collision in the dying seconds of the Easter Monday rout. While he managed to get off the field okay, and has been cleared of injury, he is a chance to be a late out. Has been named on the half forward flank for Geelong, but they might not risk it. That said it’s less likely he’ll miss playing Freo than he will if the Cats had Melbourne this week. Set your emergencies in the forward line community!

Tom Bellchamers

Whispers circulating that TBC may be a late out. While he looked good enough in the first half against Sydney for me to be ruing not selecting him, he got a knock to the knee halfway through the game and struggled. McKernan has been upgraded from the rookie list this week, which is a worry, but I think he’ll play.

Rockliff and Sidebottom

Trade. As has been said all week on the site, cash him in on a rolled gold elite premium. Lewis, JPK, Sloane, Fyfe, Pendlebury, Selwood – roll a dice, flip a coin, you’ll struggle to go wrong. But my picks are Fyfe, Pendles, Lewis, Selwood, Sloane, JPK or possibly even Ollie “The Quadzilla” Wines. I’ve picked Wines off the back of his write up in the illustrious Jock Reynolds Magazine (which you can get online here), and is statistically primed to enter Elite Super Premium Status this year. And the stats, like Shakira’s hips, do not lie. Well at least most of the time.

Tom Lamb

As mentioned in the podcast, this is not time to be worried. Lamb played alright coming off the snot vest, and I am genuinely surprised he is missing considering the lack of key defensive posts in the West Coast backline. But I have no doubt he will be back.


Lots of debate here community, and I am struggling to make a choice. I have Goldstein and Mummy. But indecision has made my choice easy – I will hold this week, and strongly advise you to as well, as we don’t have enough evidence to make informed decisions. Only trades this week should be to pick up missed rookies, in my humble opinion. For a more in-formed opinion, Supercoach 2013 winner John Bruyn put up a significant article this week about how and when to trade early, and needless to say this man is slightly more qualified than I.


Entering the dog-eat-dog jungle of AFL is a tough ask for rookies, but there are those who can match it with the rest from day dot and pump out mammoth scores. The difference can be as much as Oxley’s 30 vs McIntosh’s 120 in round 1. It can win or lose you league games; possibly even win you the 50k. I’ll cast my gaze over the coming round and do my best to tell you which rookies I reckon you should start onfield, as well as which are at risk of being sub, either in the Kermit vest or the red vest. These guys are in order of who you should start down to who you probably shouldn’t. Let me know if I miss anyone!


McIntosh – named onfield for the Tigers and I think he should be onfield for you. Won’t back up his 120 with another one but in line for a 70+ score.

Saad – same as above. Might not score 89 again, but a good chance to score well. Unlikely to be subbed off as Abblett is in the for it this week.

Brown – Unlikely to score more than 60 as a key backman, but he’s not a sub risk.

Oxley – big sub risk. Last spot on the bench. Doesn’t look promising. Keep him off field if possible.


Cripps – should bounce back. Remember we’re not expecting the 100’s we saw in the NAB, but if he plays forward then we should be worried. If you’re like Lek and feel sneaky enough to loophole him, that’s a good idea, but I have little faith in my internet connection, and so will be starting him onfield. Should score 80 if playing in the guts. Contested beast.

Ellis-Yolman – another contested ball magnet. Named onfield, and I’d consider him unlikely to get the red vest. Expect more of the same from him.

Heeney – surprised me with a score of 97, but it did include a clutch goal. Bloody good player, and I expect the green vest to go to Towers or Laidler. Might get subbed off, though.

Lambert (FWD) – “With one hand the SC gods taketh away, yet with the other hand they giveth’.” The Book of Jock; 1:13. The Gods have taken from us Brett Deledio, and have handed us Kane Lambert in return, and have named him on the field. Makes you want to sometimes. I’d have him forward if possible, but otherwise put the E on him. Red vest chance.

vandenBerg – mentioned on the Thursday Night podcast in dulcet Irish tones, vandenBerg is a big sub risk. I think it’s 50/50 between him and Newton, and that’s enough for him to be whacked on my bench with a big purple E on him.

Miller – massive sub vest. Keep off the ground. Don’t put the E on him if you can avoid it.


Pffffft, rookie rucks! Can you imagine… *cries*


Clark – looked bloody good, no chance of a vest unless something goes badly wrong.

Salem – controversial, but I think he will bounce back. Did so after a putrid NAB 1 and tonned up. While he might not ton up, I’m optimistically hoping for an 80 from Salem against the Giants. Little vest chance.

Lambert – see MID write-up.

McGrath – not many jumped on him, but he surprised us all with a 70. Showed nothing close to that in the NAB, and we dismissed him as an early season snot-vest wearer. Named onfield again, and if you’ve got him, could be a solid E candidate or to pop on the field.

Hogan – possible red vest candidate now Dawes is back, but unlikely. Did more than expected last week, and may continue that now he’ll have the second defender.

Lonie – named on the ground, but a big red vest candidate. Small forwards also struggle for points consistently, especially early in their careers. A big E for mine.

Lamb – just like the terminator, he will be back. Just probably with less guns and explosions.

Liam Duggan – the number 11 draft pick from last year has been named on the bench for his first game with the eagles. At $172,300, his NAB form wasn’t inspiring, playing just the one game where he came on as the sub and scored 10. Will probably be sub. I wouldn’t suggest bringing him in, and in the unlikely event you’ve got him, keep him on the pine.


That’s it for me. As well as asking questions and whatnot, please let me know how the format works! If I’ve waffled on or need more information stuffed in there, tell me and the Wrap will evolve into whatever it takes to help level your head before lockout.

Best of luck for round 2, community.


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OK Gary Ablett coaches, here's my plan.

Out Ablett and Henderson
In: Brodie Smith & either Wines (Can't afford anyone more expensive plus I'm backing his 3rd year *BOOM*


It was either Wines Jack or Ellis and I've decided on Wines.


I'm not entertaining the idea of trading Gaz out, and I'd advise against you doing so. But if you must both are good options. Do you have a plan on trading Gaz back in?


No plan as of yet but I have aced every rookie across the board including Rich at that mid-price.
Watching him on the weekend grimacing and unable to lay a tackle made me ill. I'd much rather make the move first while I'm ahead instead of later on when he's copped 2 vests and an injury.


I feel the week to move is next week. While I reckon you'd make the right call switching to Wines, but not this week. Make those trades next week mate – I like them but assess the lay of the land first.


Can't endorse an Ablett trade this week, but I think Wines is the right choice given your options. I had him in my team all pre-season and am kicking myself I left him out at the last minute to squeeze some more cash into the forward line. Could have had him instead of Griffen who I wasn't keen on but got suckered in by all the community hype : /


Gutsy move Dude. I like it a lot. Gaz is not the Gaz we know and love, sadly I reckon he will go sub 100 off another 20 or so possessions and the red vest remains a worry.


without a plan to get him back in you can't trade him out. trading up your rookies is about looking for a low priced gun at the bottom of his curve. Ablett has to drop of 130k before he drops below 600k, that's a lot of money for gas to lose and even then trying to pick up a player as an upgrade around 600k will be a stretch no matter what rookies you have in your team. huge risk! last year I traded out gas but had a clear plan to get him back in because it's not easy… make sure you have a plan as well!


What do you think, Salem or Hogan on field?

It's pretty much a toss a coin situation I think.


Great article by the way! Love the breaking down of the rookies, look forward to seeing this each week!


Patch has ranked each rookie based on who he thinks you should field.


Oh he did mention that! That's for bringing that up.


Salem for me – Both should score 60+


I think Salem is much more likely to score well than Hogan, so start him. KPFs are fickle beasts at the best of time, let alone in their first games.

General Soreness

Ripping write up Patch! Ah the dreams of yesteryear with rookie rucks *cries as well*


We can dwell together in our sorrows, General.


Reckon you've done well here, Patch. Another top addition to the weekly articles for the JR Community


Awesome article Patch! So the general consensus is to hold Delidio, but I can't help at look at his injury issues and the $100K I will get by going to The Bont.
What are other Lids' owners doing??!!


Its only 1 week, he'll be back next. Hogan gets his spot on the field to cover Lids this week. Lids had the same achilles niggle all of last season, and that didn't stop him!


Cheers mate that’s my thinking too and i know it’s important to hold trades!! But despite this I always feel that damn trigger finger itching!


Agree completely. While the Bont looks good at the moment, he will get sat on this year and will have games where he struggles. Lids has the history of a SC beast: keep him.


Outstanding Max!


OK Gary Ablett coaches, here's my plan.


I like it. I'm doing nothing too!


Out of these 3 which 2 would you start on the field : Goodes, Ibbotson and Saad?


Ibbo and Saad for moi


Hey patch, great write up, community just wondering if I go with hogan or lambert on the field??


I'd go with Lambert, purely for the fact that Hogan's a KPF. Lambert much more likely to score well, he nabbed an 85 in the first preseason game and looks the goods.


Hey Patch and Community need some trade advice.

Looking to trade one of my midprice Defenders (Newnes or Ibbotson to Brown) or Bellchambers to McGrath. The current trades that I have done are Ibbotson to Brown and Lamb to McGrath. Are these worthwhile trades?


Wouldn’t jump the gun, can always do these same trades next week if needed. I wouldn’t trade TBC.


thanks julz 🙂 simple truths


The trades may work, but I wouldn't pull them this week. Midpricers are always fickle – that's why they're midpricers. You can't give them a one-game audition and throw them out. Give them another week and if Ibbo looks as disinterested as a kid in an exam again, give him the flick, but if comes out and scores 90, you'd be spewing. Hold.


thanks guys for the advice. I honestly have no idea whats gotten into me – maybe its cuz I have been working interstate by myself for the whole week!!!

I am not going to make any trades. I will say though I am putting Ibbotson, Ablett, Griffen, Newnes on notice. Just watching their games was not happy with their attitude and performance.


My trust in Ablett is gone. The risk in selecting him in the starting team was always there with no game time to judge him on. After seeing him play with one arm, laying zero tackles and only avoiding a likely score of 70 by kicking two SC weighted goals I've seen enough to know selecting him was a mistake I'm willing to rectify early. Last week Weller did great keeping Griffen very quite and will likely be planted by Ablett's side to do the same thing.

I'm, not adverse to doing 4 trades in the first two weeks to get th team right before rnd3. My rookies were all a success and don't need changing. My backup plan in case of an Ablett Fail was to add two premos to the lineup for one. Downgrade Ablett to another proven premium 100k cheaper and upgrade one of my midpricers to a premium at the same time.

Ablett will likely become either Treloar or Sloane. My other decision is in regard to Lumumba who also looks to be a changing roles type player like he used to be at Pies rather than what we saw from him in the nab. But do I either do:

a) upgrade Lumumba in defence to B Smith (who i changed to Gibson before lockout – I'd like him back to play along side Gibbo and Shaw) – also $100k left over for next week if needed.

b) swing Saad from mid to defence allowing upgrade of Lumumba in the mids to give me both Treloar and Sloane to play along side my Fyfe, Lewis, Wines and Neale. – $5k left over

Interested on thoughts


What if Ablett proves u wrong and gets 150 this wk, I’m prob being optimistic but stranger things have happened.
Also what’s your plan on getting Gary back in.
Just some things to think about 🙂


Ablett may prove me wrong, you're right. But I didn't see anything last week to suggest he is fit to play. It was worth the risk selecting him initially due to not having seen him play but he is clearly not fit. I think for those that keep him will end up trading him later anyway, and for far less. If I trade him back in later it would be like trading in any other player. Get him at his bottom price. I would extremely suprised if he breaks 100 this week, especially if he gets the red vest. Those that started without Gaz will be the winners from this one IMO.


Yes I agree might’ve been better to start without Gaz but I couldn’t bring myself to do it.
Trading him out now is a gutsy move and I agree with others on here option B is the better one. Caution on Sloane though there’s some doubt he may play this week, compression bandage on leg


Such a power statement – love it. Ablett Gone for me too! HUU HAA


can you stop spamming


What's the plan to get Abblett back in? And what's plan B?

If you've got the answers to those questions, fire away with the trades but if you've not got him when he explodes again you'll be spewing.


Plan to get Ablet back in at his low. If his one arm bandit moves continue this could become quite low. Naturally this could mean for the first time in a long time he may not be top8 mid. Assuming his health improves after a few weeks off at some stage it might be worth the risk bringing him back in.

With plan B I assume you mean if Ablett doesn't slide in value like I expect he will. I admit I have no plan for that but can't see him maintaining his price without tackling and playing only one handed. Yes I could easily be wrong though.

One Nab game would have been enough for all of us to avoid him is my view after seeing his game.


I was asking who you trade out to get him in. You need to plan how you are going to generate enough cash to trade him back in.
For example; plan A – downgrade to Rich and upgrade elsewhere; bring him in when Rich appreciates and you can cull a Cripps or another rookie; plan B Rich goes down/GAJ finds form earlier than expected, so you trade Swan for him after ANZAC day. I don't endorse either plan, but these are the sorts of things you need to think about!


I like option B.


I would give Prince Harry one more week and if he spuds it again then consider moving him on. You'll be filthy if he tonnes up and don't have him after rage trading on the back of a single game.

That said reckon plan B would be the way to go as Saad is much better suited in your backline where decent defensive rookie scores seem thin right now.


Hi SC community, I need help!!! I have S. Sewood, thinking he would be a great jump to a fallen premium and Sheed as a rookie who I thought would ave. 80/85 with no vests. But he just isn't a SC scorer.
What should I do.? With only 19k in the bank.
Jump on Rich, NVB hold one of the above or dump both?


Hold for a week. If the problem is worse than initially though then reassess next week.


Thanks Patch, great read.


Cripps or Ellis-Yolmen on field?




That's a real ball breaker decision I reckon.

Cripps was very disappointing but at least we'll know for sure that he avoids a starting vest tonight. Although it's unlikely CEY gets the green vest it could throw a huge spanner in the works if he does, especially if Vandy also wears green beforehand.

So I'll probably give Cripps one more go on that basis but it's a 50/50 call for sure.


I have 3 on field mid rookies and have to choose who to put on out of Cripps, Newton, vandenberg, Heeney, CEY . Think I'll just do the same as last week and first named without the vest , goes on field.


thanks guys!


My Rockliff Plan

Brisbane play Sunday Twilight (game 9)

I suggest leaving him on the ground and playing an early (emg) ie: Cripps, Lambert, Vandenberg.

If your emergency scores 90+ take the minor score hit so you can reassess Rockliff’s trade for Round 3.

This will eliminate any issues you have with Gaz, is Wines a gun, will D.Beams get more ball or more tag, etc.

If your emergency stinks then do the trade you had earmarked before the round started.


That is an absolutely brilliant plan, Jack. I love it. Especially as you can trade to Lewis to leave the plan as last minute as possible. I like it mate.

Beams a possibility for the tag, but I don't think it will dramatically impact his point scoring capabilities. As stated, Ollie Wines is a jet of a footballer.


North don't take. We go head to hear and opposition mids always have a day out against us. Scotty backs ours to beat there's (as shown last week *FAIL*) – Beams to go big!


Vandenberg, P.Cripps or Ellis-Yolmen on field?


They're in order mate. Cripps – Ellis-Yolmen, vandenBerg


what about newton on the field


I forgot about Newton, partially because his ownership isn't very high. I'd put him below vandenBerg on that list because he doesn't score as well as vandenBerg does. Only if you have to, mate.


Don't you think CEY is a bigger vest candidate than vandenberg?


I do not. Grigg or Laird will get the green vest.


Do I hold Scooter with his glass ankles or move him on?
I don't think I can worry each week if he's playing or not.
Bring in Rich and 100k or hold?


Look, at this stage we don't know enough about the injury. I'd tentatively say hold for a week if you can cover him.


Fantasy Freako has reported on twitter the TBC has trained well, which is great news for owners!

Rodger Brook

anyone know what the situation os with Scott Selwood and his ankle. He has has ankle problems in the past. Should I trade him?


Hey community thoughts on going maric > Nic Nat and then cockatoo > Braysh/NVB/newton


Any love for cockatoo? Ahead of Cripps?

Rodger Brook

Cripps for me


Bartel is out…..


Some doubt over Sloane too… Sounds like TBC will play though fortunately! !




Hope so. Couldn’t view your link, I saw the info in supercoach panic room and i know that’s wrong a lot of the time.


link works… let it run?


Who to put on field out of Vberg, crisps, Lambert, miller?


Cripps and Lambert


torn between VBerg and Lambert…




Which 2 of Saad, McIntosh and Goodes would you put onfield?


McIntosh is a no brainer even if he's pretty unlikely to repeat last week's performance. You'd feel pretty silly missing out if he does go large again. Coin flip on the other two really.


Yeah wasn't really a question of McIntosh I suppose. Saad or Goodes is a tough one

Bob n

saad, goodes or ibbotson on field??


Goodes. But your structure might be a bit outta whack if you're asking this question about a 340k & 260k player. Might wanna have a look at that before price change.


If i dont do any trades before tonights game can I still trade over the weekend if I need to.


Assuming you're playing SC Bundy, yes mate….


Yes. Playing SC. . Dont like the nab one. Thankyou for the information. Just need to move Sidebottom on and was hoping to do it later in the weekend.


yeah no worries there then buddy. Obviously once a player has played he is locked out (for example couldn't trade Sidebottom to Priddis after tonight's game) but other than that you've got right up until the Collingwood game for that.


Should we consider taking out Hugh goodard as he could be a downgrade target?


No. If you've started with him, keep him. He will play eventually, no point trading him out and then back in again later unless you've missed McIntosh or Saad.

Benji S

which two on field out of saad, goodes and ibbotson?

Also who do i out on VC out of gray and pendles?
Fyfe is on C


I’m going saad over Goodes

Could score well against the saints I reckon. And gotta stick with Ibbo, you picked him for a reason

Captain Pugwash

Where is Jack Steele from GWS.

Any word community ?


Need help guys

I am really tempted to trade Bartel for swan, allowing me to upgrade Cripps to Jong

I NEVER trade premo’s unless they have a LTI, but this could be an exception. I rate Jong as a keeper till after the byes as I reckon he will rock an 85+ average,

Am I crazy to even comsider this??

Captain Pugwash

Go for it Keg.

Jong is a fair dinkum goer.

And no cookie cutter team move.

I like it.


Thanks cap’n.

Just heard a whisper Cripps is out of tonight’s game. Not sure which Cripps, but if it’s carltons one my trade could be a master stroke!


If u think Swan will be on par with Bartel go for it


Reckon swan at least equals Bartel, maybe even scores a bit better. I’m gonna back it in. time will tell of it was silly or not!

matty D

to trade KK for rich ? this will allow me to put saad to backline and have him playing




Panic mode is setting in.


Cripps out ! Makes it a bit easier to go to NVB from Cripps especially if he isn’t back in next week and NVB gets a 70 plus this week. Leaves me with Vandenburg on the field and Cockatoo E. Hmmmmm Cripps to NVB to allow me two more rookie adjustment trades next week? Better judgement says no

Sheer Adversity

Thinking the same thing!


So you holding your NVB Cripps trade until next week?


Is Cripps to Rich worth using a trade?


Goodes or saad on the field?


Im backing in Goodesy.


I've slapped the VC on Nic nat tonight as my only player who is not playing is from Adelaide. If Nic nat does not fire who to choose from pendles, gray, Fyfe?


Play Kolodjashnij or Saad…

Concerned by the tagging role KK had after 1/4 time.


give kk another chance.


Any thoughts of getting 3 non-subs out of this 4?

Vandenberg, Ellis-Yolmen, Heeney, Anderson

Anderson better chance now that O'Rourke is in, but lot of question marks?

Otherwise, can dump cripps before first bounce tonight.



Perfect way to start off a round. Love the Rookie Rumbles and the expert slicing and dicing of players. You have made my morning, sir!

Unfortunately, Cripps just shat on all the good vibes you've created.

footy fan

Cripps to van berlo??? is it worth it will van berlo be scoring 70s all season??


is 270k to much to have on the side?

Ball Buster

I've got both Lids and Jimmy B community. Pretty much stuffed as Lamb is omitted and already played, and coping a donut without a trade. Is it worth a sideways to a Bonts or similar to avoid that dreaded zero?


Gibson out if I need to trade to win my league game is it worth it? Goodes is E and on 5 sc at 3/4 time. Either switch Oxley onto the field for Gibson unless he is the sub or Goodes has a big last 1/4 ?


Heeney or Saad onfield