Welcome to this edition of the Bruyn Manoeuvre.
In years gone by the key to Supercoach trading was patience. Holding off trading early in the year was essential to a coaches success. This was of course before trades were increased to 30.
In recent years we have seen the winner of SC, myself included, run out of trades with a couple of rounds left in the year. This approach is risky but each time the winner has said that decisive early trading, primarily to alter initial team selections, was essential to their final victory. No surprises then that I have no issues with recommending aggressive trading during these first two weeks.
Take note – this isn’t a widely recommended approach for good reason. It’s only been one week, so any decision your are making now is based on extremely limited information.
I believe the reason why so much SC advice, especially post round 1, focuses on the need to be calm and not trade is because most people tend to trade emotionally and make decisions they later regret. These sorts of trades are often made based solely on SC scores – did you even watch the game? – or simply because everyone else is doing it. Don’t trade this way!
Time and time again, it gets said that you should back your own judgement in SC. This week is no different. Sideways trading is a low percentage play but may be the right move. If you’ve got doubts about Griffen, sure trade him. BUT, think twice. The guy will score huge – and as early as this week. If you are going to do it, do it having at least watched the game of the players involved in your trade. If you have doubts HOLD.
Supercoach trading is a bit like the stock market. Often, people buy shares based solely on a mate’s recommendation. More times than not these types of share tips end badly. On the flip side, it has been shown that just 20 minutes research prior to purchase can lead to dramatically improved investment outcomes. It’s also true that patient long term investing, time and again, delivers the best results. Trade like a shark not a shrimp.
Go through these steps when you look to trade this week.
- Look at the current situation as a two week block. Don’t think about who you want THIS week alone. Think about who you want before the round 3 price change. Make a two week plan if possible. For example, I know I want one trade available to me next week in case GAJ gets injured and another for a possible injury in my ruck or a rookie correction – Sheeeeed! That means if I am going to sideways trade I might need to do it this week.
- Do you have the crucial rookies? If not these should be your no 1 targets. Forget about trading in Danger or Tex. I repeat. Get the rookies first (after dealing with long term injuries). Check out Crimmo’s latest piece for more on this!
- Don’t chase last weeks points! The 177 from Tex is gone and trading him in now won’t bring it back. Why didn’t you pick him last week? Chances are, those reasons are the same now. Think twice about why you’re choosing to trade in a guy who went big week.
- Where are your holes? Do you suddenly feel like you have a rookie too many down back or up forward? Perhaps a mid pricer too many in the mids? Correct any mistakes in your team structures BEFORE worrying about any underperforming premiums. Bring in premiums not more midpricers. Prior to round 1 I had my doubts about playing a rookie at D5. Not so now – enter one K McIntosh – this is a restructure to my team I’ll be making these next two weeks.
- If I am to trade this week It will only be to bring in keeper premiums or rookies. I suggest considering midpricers next week. The only exception here could be in your rucks.
- Speaking of which – did you go ultra premium in your rucks? A Jacobs, Mummy one-two looks like a fail with the new ruck rules. I’d look hard at downgrading any $600k ruckmen your holding. BUT – don’t lose faith too quickly in others just yet. If you downgrade to a Leuy now, you’re committed to trading back up to someone else later. Give the ruck your thinking about downgrading a second week if you can bare it.
- Only after all of this is a sideways trade OK in my book. I repeat – do this only in lieu of all other important trade options.
Thanks for those who got in touch on twitter (@imjohnb).
Here’s the wash up of those conversations. Hope it helps,
- Do not trade underperforming ‘keeper’ premium selections like Dustin Martin, Harry Taylor, Michael Hibbard or Joel Selwood. It’s Madness.
- Do not downgrade your defence all of a sudden (i.e Newnes to a Geary or Hunt).
- Avoid trading premiums into midpricers.
- Only trade an ultra premium midfielder in for Rocky. Throw a blanket over JPK, Sloane, Lewis, Parker, Selwood, Beams. If you don’t have Pendles and Fyfe already.
- Hold GAJ. Hold Lids. Hold Bartel.
- Consider trading your ~$600k ruckmen into Leuy or TBC. Use the cash to upgrade a midpricer to a keeper premium elsewhere.
- KEEP Goldstein.
- Hold Sheed and Cripps another week, unless you’ve missed one of the cheaper rookies (Heeney for example). Watch Van Berlo, for a possible trade in for these guys next week.
- I am OK with sideways trading fallen premiums this week (i.e Griffen) but only if you are trading him up to a rolled gold keeper.