John Bruyn - The DimmawitsWow – or should I say ouch? – what a first round!

Welcome to this edition of the Bruyn Manoeuvre. 

In years gone by the key to Supercoach trading was patience. Holding off trading early in the year was essential to a coaches success. This was of course before trades were increased to 30.

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In recent years we have seen the winner of SC, myself included, run out of trades with a couple of rounds left in the year. This approach is risky but each time the winner has said that decisive early trading, primarily to alter initial team selections, was essential to their final victory. No surprises then that I have no issues with recommending aggressive trading during these first two weeks.

Take note – this isn’t a widely recommended approach for good reason. It’s only been one week, so any decision your are making now is based on extremely limited information.

I believe the reason why so much SC advice, especially post round 1, focuses on the need to be calm and not trade is because most people tend to trade emotionally and make decisions they later regret. These sorts of trades are often made based solely on SC scores – did you even watch the game? – or simply because everyone else is doing it. Don’t trade this way!

Time and time again, it gets said that you should back your own judgement in SC. This week is no different. Sideways trading is a low percentage play but may be the right move. If you’ve got doubts about Griffen, sure trade him. BUT, think twice. The guy will score huge – and as early as this week. If you are going to do it, do it having at least watched the game of the players involved in your trade. If you have doubts HOLD.

Supercoach trading is a bit like the stock market. Often, people buy shares based solely on a mate’s recommendation. More times than not these types of share tips end badly. On the flip side, it has been shown that just 20 minutes research prior to purchase can lead to dramatically improved investment outcomes. It’s also true that patient long term investing, time and again, delivers the best results. Trade like a shark not a shrimp.

Go through these steps when you look to trade this week.

  • Look at the current situation as a two week block. Don’t think about who you want THIS week alone. Think about who you want before the round 3 price change. Make a two week plan if possible. For example, I know I want one trade available to me next week in case GAJ gets injured and another for a possible injury in my ruck or a rookie correction – Sheeeeed! That means if I am going to sideways trade I might need to do it this week.
  • Do you have the crucial rookies? If not these should be your no 1 targets. Forget about trading in Danger or Tex. I repeat. Get the rookies first (after dealing with long term injuries). Check out Crimmo’s latest piece for more on this!
  • Don’t chase last weeks points! The 177 from Tex is gone and trading him in now won’t bring it back. Why didn’t you pick him last week? Chances are, those reasons are the same now. Think twice about why you’re choosing to trade in a guy who went big week.
  • Where are your holes? Do you suddenly feel like you have a rookie too many down back or up forward? Perhaps a mid pricer too many in the mids? Correct any mistakes in your team structures BEFORE worrying about any underperforming premiums. Bring in premiums not more midpricers. Prior to round 1 I had my doubts about playing a rookie at D5. Not so now – enter one K McIntosh – this is a restructure to my team I’ll be making these next two weeks.
  • If I am to trade this week It will only be to bring in keeper premiums or rookies. I suggest considering midpricers next week. The only exception here could be in your rucks.
  • Speaking of which – did you go ultra premium in your rucks? A Jacobs, Mummy one-two looks like a fail with the new ruck rules. I’d look hard at downgrading any $600k ruckmen your holding. BUT – don’t lose faith too quickly in others just yet. If you downgrade to a Leuy now, you’re committed to trading back up to someone else later. Give the ruck your thinking about downgrading a second week if you can bare it.
  • Only after all of this is a sideways trade OK in my book. I repeat – do this only in lieu of all other important trade options.

Thanks for those who got in touch on twitter (@imjohnb).

Here’s the wash up of those conversations. Hope it helps,

  • Do not trade underperforming ‘keeper’ premium selections like Dustin Martin, Harry Taylor, Michael Hibbard or Joel Selwood. It’s Madness.
  • Do not downgrade your defence all of a sudden (i.e Newnes to a Geary or Hunt).
  • Avoid trading premiums into midpricers.
  • Only trade an ultra premium midfielder in for Rocky. Throw a blanket over JPK, Sloane, Lewis, Parker, Selwood, Beams. If you don’t have Pendles and Fyfe already.
  • Hold GAJ. Hold Lids. Hold Bartel.
  • Consider trading your ~$600k ruckmen into Leuy or TBC. Use the cash to upgrade a midpricer to a keeper premium elsewhere.
  • KEEP Goldstein.
  • Hold Sheed and Cripps another week, unless you’ve missed one of the cheaper rookies (Heeney for example). Watch Van Berlo, for a possible trade in for these guys next week.
  • I am OK with sideways trading fallen premiums this week (i.e Griffen) but only if you are trading him up to a rolled gold keeper.

Trades this week can have a massive baring on your season. So whatever you do, do it on your terms.

Cheers
JB


141 Comments

Stevo · 09/04/2015 at 17:02

So considering this brilliant article, should I keep my current setup of Goldstein and Naitanui or trade Nat to Leunberger?

    Stevo · 09/04/2015 at 17:03

    Because in the podcast the fellas advised not to trade to a midpricer ruck simply because you have to waste a trade trading the midpricer to a premium once they reach a desired price

      General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:07

      The rules that apply:
      Keep Goldy
      Dont not trade premiums into mid pricers i.e. do not trade Nic Nat to Luey or TBC
      Do trade $600K ruckman into them to ensure you upgrade to another premo elsewhere – you do not have a $600K ruck

      Keep your current set up according to John's rules.

        Stevo · 09/04/2015 at 17:35

        Ok cheers!

        NateCrows · 09/04/2015 at 17:37

        Stevo I reckon you have the best ruck combo this year.
        I know TBC aint a keeper (i have him too) but as long as he's close enough to the other big boys it's good enough.

        Allows your spend in the fickle defensive area or saving for the creme dela creme in the guts

          ri blues · 09/04/2015 at 19:21

          No rucks scored more than 100. Is this a sign of things to come under new scoring? Divert premiums elsewhere?

    Jake · 12/04/2015 at 13:44

    I have the same combo and i'm sticking with it.

General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:04

This is why you have won before, a dish of sheer brilliance wrapped in common sense. *we're not worthy, we're not worthy*

    NateCrows · 09/04/2015 at 17:34

    SC is like the pokies.

    People only trade because they want instant gratification and theres no other buttons to press

Crowmagnon · 09/04/2015 at 17:08

Great article JB. True words of wisdom.

Chris · 09/04/2015 at 17:13

So my main issues are..
Having non scoring rookies – lambert and hamling. Not having vandenberg
Ruck- Mumford
Mid- griffen

So realistically want to make some corrective trades in the next 2 weeks but do I hold off on griffen for one more week or do the trade now..

I have TBC in fwd, so swap him into ruck and then have 1.1 million to spend on a mid and fwd..
Then swap rookies next week?

Thoughts..

    LEKD0G · 09/04/2015 at 17:14

    Hold on Griffen

      NateCrows · 09/04/2015 at 17:33

      Yeah hold griffen,
      trade mummy and move TBC into the ruck spot and get yourself an ultra premo keeper such as Gray, Bartel etc

        General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:35

        Personally I would hold everyone but for Hamling if you can. Getting Vandenberg is a likely must have. So it may force your hand on one of the trades (Mummy or Griff) this week.

    Favalinko u Beauty · 10/04/2015 at 12:32

    Ok so you make the trade Bellie in for Mummy, make lots of cash, your happy.Then you spend cash on 1 mid premo and 1 fwd premo, this makes you happy. Then Bellie goes down injured (he is in doubt for this week) This make you very unhappy as you will not have any cash for a ruck and may have to carry a donut for a few weeks or longer. I would not trade Mummy as he will average more points than most ruck man over the year and this is why you brought him in. Mummy is a keeper.

Girdle · 09/04/2015 at 17:15

No offence intended but these mixed messages are confusing to anyone new to SC. “Keep calm….don’t trade……only if……wait, MAKE that trade…..”

Just go with your gut feeling, whatever that is…..

    General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:33

    Girdle 'tis the beauty that is SC, the differing of opinions over who to select initially, who to trade in, what structure to start with, when to trade etc etc etc

    It is up to each individual to determine from the masses of information what is best for them. John, Jock, Peter et al cannot pick your team, make your trades or win it for you. Each circumstance is individual.

    Having said all that there are some fairly general rules to follow many of which John has eloquently stated.
    – Keep Calm and pick with your head is a must.
    – Make your trades count
    – After 1 round do not trade – unless:
    >Injured player
    >You have the wrong rookies
    >There is sound reasoning that will make the trade count

    Making it count means turn it into cash or keeper, no point trading into another trade.

    John states that trading Griffen is OK if going to a rolled gold keeper, begs the question why one did not do that in the first place. Probably because they though Griffen was undervalue and would provide cash plus massive scores. Not much has changed, just one poor score, Griffen does that. What shouldnt be done is Griffen into Rich because eventually you will trade Rich into a premo. Yes you will make cash, Griffen will outscore Rich so you lose points.

    I hope this helps clarify things for you Girdle. If you remain stuck just post the direct question here in the comments for someone to help.

      Girdle · 09/04/2015 at 18:29

      It’s all good, General. I’m not new to the game, just to the various websites. I actually agree with John Bruyn. If it’s the right trade, then do it.

@t_woof · 09/04/2015 at 17:21

Superb article JB!!

steve · 09/04/2015 at 17:25

What to do with mackie – heard not going to play – trade for burgoyne? gibson? simpson?

    Derek · 09/04/2015 at 21:13

    Birchell

@RyanRhino14 · 09/04/2015 at 17:25

I'm strongly considering trading Griffen to the Bont and not just because Griffen got 70 and Bontempelli got 126, it concerns me that out of all the GWS mids, Griffen was the one that was tagged, doing the trade would give me 170k to upgrade rookies quicker and having the Bont as a mid in the bye rounds would allow me to switch him, Gray, Martin and Swan depending on which round it is and would possibly allow me to upgrade one of my fwd rookies using Bontempelli's dpp status to a fallen mid for example, Brad Crouch, who should be back by then and have fallen in price a bit. I feel like if I did it, even if Griffen out scored the Bont by 10 points until the bye rounds start, I should be able to make up those 90 points easily, I might've missed something or I'm overthinking it but it's something I'm strongly considering.

    steve · 09/04/2015 at 17:35

    hey Ryan i am sat twiddling the thumbs over the same miserable state of affairs! i understand holding but…….not only that mackies got a corky and bartel is knocked out…..big kahooona's required…i had bonts pre lockout then dumped him 🙁 back your own hunch the trouble is i now have many and you have just confused me even more with a good strategy! sobbing ….

      @RyanRhino14 · 09/04/2015 at 18:17

      keep Bartel, I'm guessing you kept Mackie either because you had McIntosh as E and kept Mackie to get his score or you didn't have enough money to switch Mackie to Gibson or Burgoyne after he was out but I would say do the corrective trades first before you do something like trading Griffen to the Bont

    Rusty · 09/04/2015 at 19:10

    Considering similar had Bonts right up till last minute and upgraded and spent less in ruck as went with Bellchambers & Grundy with O’Brien on bench.
    Now considering trading Griffen for Bonts so I can upgrade O’Brien to Redden etc as coverage for Bellchambers in case of late out.
    Either that or Bartel to Walker and upgrade ruck but option 1 is preferred option.
    Would appreciate your opinion

Josh · 09/04/2015 at 17:27

Trade down Maric ($536,000)???

    General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:36

    No.

      Josh · 09/04/2015 at 21:07

      Cheers General. HOLD it is.

        Spider · 10/04/2015 at 14:44

        Hold. I have Goldy and Maric. Give another week to reassess.

NateCrows · 09/04/2015 at 17:31

This article made my trousers stretch considerably.

great work
risk v reward community!

Sambillbombers · 09/04/2015 at 17:39

Rocky to jpk ,newnes or lamumba to B. Smith ?

    General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:45

    Yes to JPK, hold for a week before going to B Smith.

      @Seekersupacoach · 09/04/2015 at 21:53

      General re: Brodie Smith advice; is this because you question Smith or more because it's better to wait a week on Newnes and Lumumba? Isn't Smith a keeper?

    NateCrows · 09/04/2015 at 17:45

    first one leave the others

Soothsayer · 09/04/2015 at 17:40

Excellent message on trades but I was going to trade Rocky down to Rich. Is this madness????

    General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 17:45

    Article states – "Only trade an ultra premium midfielder in for Rocky. Throw a blanket over JPK, Sloane, Lewis, Parker, Selwood, Beams. If you don’t have Pendles and Fyfe already."

      Soothsayer · 09/04/2015 at 18:33

      Thanks general, I did see that which is why I was asking for further advice on the trade to Rich in particular. I can bring in Rich and Smith in defence if I trade out KK and Rocky. Appreciate the feedback heaps and cheers.

        General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 18:57

        Rich will be a future trade again imho and Smith is still a ? mark. If Smith turns out to be a keeper it is a plausible trade. However even if he is a keeper consider this:

        Rich goes at 90 ave until R13 and Smith at 100 ave (good numbers) they will produce between them 2280 SC points and increase value from Rich would be approx $130K. i.e. $460K, could trade to a fallen premo or with cash go premo. Therefore 2 trades, 2280SC points, assuming you keep Smith of course.

        If you go say JPK he will score at 1320 with 110ave to R13. A rook by round 8 will be $200K up in price averaging 70. Trade rook round 8 up to proven premo at 110ave R8. Therefore rook pumps out 560 and premo 440 totalling 1000. Total deal is worth 2320 and two trades.

        Now you can formulate your decision around whether or not Smith is a keeper with a 100ave and Rich will have a 90ave. If you think neither are keepers or neither can hit the average then option 2 clearly better (subject to you thinking JPK is 110 and rook is 70). If you think Smith and Rich both keepers and I have not done their averages justice then option 1. Obviously this process can, and should be, applied to any player / trade.

          @Matr1x23 · 09/04/2015 at 19:05

          Who would you bring in if trading out Rockliff & Jaksch?

            General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 19:13

            Any of JPK, Parker, Treloar, Beams, Fyfe, Jelwood, Pendles, Sloane, Lewis. I already have Fyfe, Jelwood and Pendles so would lean toward JPK and Sloane over others at this stage although I really like Treloar. If you do not need to make other correctives at this time I would sit on Jaksch and pick of the best defender next week. Jacksh is only 1-2 weeks so if you can cover do so. Otherwise I would trade down to the best available rook and have the cash ready for upgrades and pick off the best defenders as they show themselves a few rounds in.

          Soothsayer · 09/04/2015 at 19:44

          Thanks general, thats the most detailed and practical advice I have ever had, Perhaps It would be wise to wait on the Smith decision until we see how he scores next week. If I don't trade Rocky to Rich, and stick to a premium, I need to decide between Fyfe and Pendles, or down to Lewis (already have Sloane GAJ & JPK). Problem is…will fife, pendles and selwood be a better pick up after their price drops and will Lewis hold his claim as a top ten mid? I am worried about doing my cash on the sidewise trade because after one game we don't know which premos will have their year in the sun. A way out was to trade down and bank cash for more certain times. This is my logic behind looking at Rich.

      Johnny · 09/04/2015 at 20:37

      Do I have permission to trade in Dangerfield even though he isn't on this list?

mike · 09/04/2015 at 17:44

With private leagues commencing in round 2 and ending round 22, there’s something in aggressive early trading if you’re going for a league win as we hopefully won’t cop the rested players. That being said it appears everyone is going for ultimate glory!

@Rem_Wah · 09/04/2015 at 17:50

Who should I field out of: Heeney, Ellis Yolmen and Cripps?

    Deano · 09/04/2015 at 17:54

    Gotta wait for the teams on that one. All could be viable vest options with inclusions.

    Phil · 09/04/2015 at 19:52

    my early call would be Ellis Yolmen, Cripps, Heeney…

    Luviboy1 · 09/04/2015 at 20:05

    In order CEY, Heeney, Cripps.

Deano · 09/04/2015 at 17:50

Looks like my punt on Clancee at D5 might have gone astray. My reasoning was that even with the run with role, that would put him in the thick of the action for contested posies and clearances. Watching last week's game, he was all at sea with his positioning around the stoppages.

Corrective trade down option is only N Brown as I have Mac, Ox and AdSaad. Use the trade and bank the cash for any other up/down correctives next week or hold?

    Dools · 09/04/2015 at 19:46

    Gday Deano,
    Clancee is a bit of a puzzler for me…. Tagging Role Players rarely reward you in SC…..
    Question is Clancee the designated Tagger with Crowley awaiting other off field stuff???
    Nab and 1st game appear to say yes.
    Fridge really likes Clancee but you have a dilemma for sure. Downgrade to a Rookie if you can N. Brown is just another trade waiting so 2 Trade corrective is not really the way to go unless Brown ends up as D7/8???
    Not knowing your team makes this hard or how much you have in the bank..
    Gut says HOLD 1 week if you can…At least you have a warm body on the park!!!!

MarcoPolo · 09/04/2015 at 17:50

Trade mummy to goldy or nic nat? TBC is my R2. I most likely won’t trade mummy until next week at least but I’m interested as to who the best option would be. Cheers

    Rhino · 09/04/2015 at 19:09

    Puzzling over the same. I intend to wait until next week but am likely to go to Nic Nat if ruck scores balance out as they did last week. Baring injury, I consider Nic Nat as much as a keeper option as Goldy but expect Goldy to finish 5-10 points higher. Goldy then becomes an upgrade option for TBC if needed as if scoring is as indicated, I expect their values will get within $100k at some point in the second half of the season. Damn I hate wasting trades in the Rucks…

    Dools · 09/04/2015 at 19:47

    Goldy

    Spider · 10/04/2015 at 14:46

    GWS are playing the Dees this week & Jamar was flattered against GC. I'd give Mummy another wk.

Costa · 09/04/2015 at 17:53

Guys at this stage of the game don’t get trade crazy, if a player is playing then do not trade, only if they are out for more than two weeks.
I’m not an expert but have finished in the top 5% two years in a row. If your playing for giggles then go ahead but if you want to get somewhere be strategic.
There are only two players that should be traded this week, rocky abd Sidebottom. I have Rockliffe and it kills me to burn a trade so il be strategic. NO I WONT BRING IN ABLETT! I refuse to bring in a player who will drop value in rnd 3.
Adam Treloar GWS 577k -156 round 1, a break even of -8, projected score of 133 against demons, lowest score against demons 96, highest score 176. Will be 630k by rnd 4.
Until round 6 just hold back on trading players that are playing unless a mid priced or premium gets a long injury or a rookie who is not playing. You will need every trade by the seasons later stages

@emhoy · 09/04/2015 at 17:58

If you are bring in McIntosh as D5 then who do you have on the bench as I assume you will be playing Sadd at M6?

cam · 09/04/2015 at 18:00

Do I trade anderson or miller for vanderberg?

    @Rem_Wah · 09/04/2015 at 18:10

    Wait til teams drop, cam

    Guest · 09/04/2015 at 19:01

    Hold on tradeing to Vandenberg.
    The last thing you want is for him to get injured or miller and anderson to get a good score

    Spider · 10/04/2015 at 14:48

    Wait for teams, both Miller/Vand are vest risks so prob not worth the small amount of cash you'd make.

BCHawks · 09/04/2015 at 18:02

Great article mate. After reading it I am unsure whether or not I should keep Mummy. Will likely keep him 1 more week to see if he can improve.

Buddy · 09/04/2015 at 18:28

What do you guys think to do with Tom Lamb now he's not named. Trade out and get lonie?? Not sure

    I N Pieman · 09/04/2015 at 18:55

    No way. Hold off unless you have no cover

    LoopyHermit · 09/04/2015 at 20:37

    hold.he'll be back soon for sure.

    Spider · 10/04/2015 at 14:48

    Hold

I N Pieman · 09/04/2015 at 18:28

Simply brilliant. That is all

Luviboy1 · 09/04/2015 at 18:41

Scott Selwood out for tomorrows game. Hold onto him or move on?

Harry · 09/04/2015 at 18:51

Ibbortson to Geary?

    LoopyHermit · 09/04/2015 at 20:37

    hold on Ibbo. reckon he'll out score geary this week.

tom · 09/04/2015 at 18:53

Tommy Lamb has been omitted!

Do we hold or trade for someone like Mcgrath?

    Frank · 09/04/2015 at 18:56

    McGrath not assured a spot yet until final squad named tomorrow

    I N Pieman · 09/04/2015 at 18:57

    This week. Nope. What’s if Mcgrath gets dropped next week. Painful

      eatemalive · 09/04/2015 at 19:05

      I have McGrath in my side and he will play a lot this year,however I wouldn't be trading out Lamb as he will be back and will play a lot a games this year.

Guest · 09/04/2015 at 19:02

Trade lamb to McGrath? Since lamb is omitted

    General Soreness · 09/04/2015 at 19:14

    Just as likely to be back in next week and McGrath miss, if you have coverage, hold.

    LoopyHermit · 09/04/2015 at 20:35

    definitely hold. seen the boy play and you cant keep talent like his out of the side for long.

@Matr1x23 · 09/04/2015 at 19:15

What do you guys think of J. McVeigh?

    @mysterycannon · 09/04/2015 at 19:34

    Can''t see him averaging the 110+ that you need from a midfield keeper. He's not cheap either. Parker and Lewis only 30k more…

Rusty · 09/04/2015 at 19:15

Considering similar had Bonts right up till last minute and upgraded and spent less in ruck as went with Bellchambers & Grundy with O’Brien on bench.

Now considering trading Griffen for Bonts so I can upgrade O’Brien to Redden etc as coverage for Bellchambers in case of late out.

Either that or Bartel to Walker and upgrade ruck but option 1 is preferred option.

Would appreciate your opinion

    rob · 09/04/2015 at 21:55

    hold griff mate

Alex · 09/04/2015 at 19:20

Hi Guys,

tough trades this week, if anyone is keen to join another AFL Fantasy league hit ours up- XA7CSNHD

Paule · 09/04/2015 at 19:24

K.Jack in for Rocky? or is Pendels a must? I just think with no Sidebum and Beams at Brissy, Pendels will be under the pump. What do you think community?
Top job JB

    @mysterycannon · 09/04/2015 at 19:29

    You'll defintely want to trade in Pendles at some stage this season. He's the type of rolled gold that John mentioned. Can you say the same for Jack?

Max · 09/04/2015 at 19:26

Rocky to JPK or should I look for someone else?

    Luviboy1 · 09/04/2015 at 20:09

    You cant really go wrong with the amount of talent in that price range. There's nothing wrong with JPK.

    Favalinko u Beauty · 10/04/2015 at 12:46

    great trade

Tom · 09/04/2015 at 19:29

Who to start on field

Cripps or Heeney

Lambert or Hogan

    Luviboy1 · 09/04/2015 at 20:08

    All likely vest candidates. But, Cripps and Hogan for me.

      Jonathan · 10/04/2015 at 19:52

      Cripps late omission with back stiffness

3. votes · 09/04/2015 at 19:30

I have tom Lamb on my bench, should I hold him, corrective trade to Lonie or McGrath or make a decision next week? might have to use both trades next week so dont want to have to do that but if lambert scores big could do the change in 2 weeks time?

    Dools · 09/04/2015 at 19:54

    HOLD

Leon · 09/04/2015 at 19:32

now that lamb has been omitted should I trade lids? has a calf complaint as well. Was thinking tex but is that just another trade waiting to happen down the track?

@mysterycannon · 09/04/2015 at 19:32

Bellchambers pulled up sore after Sydney game, and Bartel 50/50 with concussion.
Sunday late outs will go a long way to deciding how my team scores this week!

    Jonathan · 10/04/2015 at 19:53

    Bartel has already been named out

      jim · 11/04/2015 at 10:43

      He said that 10+ hours ago you little sht.

Sean · 09/04/2015 at 19:40

Might be forced to start both Sheed and Cripps as a fair bit of risk around Vandenberg, Heeney, CEY and Miller wearing the green vest or do people think there are more likely options for the vest with these respective teams. Requires a bit of bottle to leave out certain starters even if they under performed last week and hope some of the other guys avoid the vest.

    eatemalive · 09/04/2015 at 19:50

    Sean, like all of us with the rolling lockout you can make choices on the run,good lick

      Mock · 10/04/2015 at 00:30

      Vandenberg wwill not get the vest !!

Dig Dug · 09/04/2015 at 19:56

I feel Luke Parker May be a late exclusion. Should I pre-empty and bring in someone else?

    Luviboy1 · 09/04/2015 at 20:03

    If he is a late exclusion, it'll one game he's missing. Ask yourself if its worth burning a trade on a player like Parker who has a lot of potential this year.

Phil · 09/04/2015 at 19:58

What's the worst trade anyone has seen thrown up? Mine would be Goldstein to Bellchambers. Goldstein out scored him by 18 points! Madness…

    Frank · 09/04/2015 at 21:22

    Not entirely. Hypothetically you have $1M on bench (8 rookies @ $125K), leaving $9M on field. If you had 14 Goldys on the field that is 1400 points, leaving about $1M for other 8 spots (8 more rookies @ $125K) who average say 80. Score 2040.
    If you had 14 TBCs on field that is 1148 points, leaving $4.8M for other 8 spots (8 Jordan Lewis's) who scores say 130. Score 2188.
    Its about finding the right balance so I don't see that trade as madness.

Dig Dug · 09/04/2015 at 20:06

Do I downgrade lycett to someone?

    Cyril is Delicious · 09/04/2015 at 20:57

    I had Lycett and I downgraded him to TBC if that helps

    SideBySidebottom · 09/04/2015 at 23:06

    Ask yourself why you chose Lycett over Bellchambers in the first place.

    Follow your gut for a few weeks, not one round with a lower than expected score.

LoopyHermit · 09/04/2015 at 20:10

Hey community, quick thoughts on trading mummy down to a luenberg or blicsavs and trading sam mitchel to jordan lewis.

    LoopyHermit · 09/04/2015 at 20:14

    any help would be great. its my first time taking it seriously and you guys have been a major help in picking my team thus far.
    Many thanks in advance.

    Derek · 09/04/2015 at 21:29

    Hold Mitchell, he is a dead set gun,

    He would have scored more last week if StevieJ didn’t smash him in the back

    dognino · 09/04/2015 at 21:37

    If you started mitchell you need to hold him until he starts missing games, he will score well, but will get rested or do a hammy/calf at some stage

Michael · 09/04/2015 at 20:16

I currently have Goldstein Nic Nat ruck combo, with TBC in the forward line.

I know Goldstein scored well this week, and I know he will be in the top 2-3 rucks come year end, however from what we have seen so far it appears as a whole rucks are going to score less overall this year. Using round one 2015 as a sample size it seems the 120+ ruck scores will be a lot more rare than last season, making Goldstein overpriced. Keeping this assumption means that having three rucks on my field is limiting my total score.

Thoughts on moving out Goldstein, moving TBC into the ruck, and then using the $570k Goldstein is worth bringing in a forward premium?

    LoopyHermit · 09/04/2015 at 20:32

    I'd keep Goldy. He looks the beezneez from last week. can only get better with the rest of the roos pulling their weight. I am slightly biased though as i have thebig man in my team.

    Johnny · 09/04/2015 at 20:40

    So tempted to do the same but with Maric instead. I already have 2 likely trades for next week but I reckon u could wait a week

    Brook · 09/04/2015 at 20:55

    I posted along similar lines below … Sorry I missed your thread.

    I know I should hold but there are some tempting options out there by swinging tbc into r2 … Quite risky though and I suppose we took the swing set as insurance.

    Also depends a bit on how Cripps goes tomorrow nite.

    Derek · 09/04/2015 at 21:31

    TBC will be out of my team after a bit of a cash increase

Jacob · 09/04/2015 at 20:28

No matter how many posts are put up, people of the community do not seem to be getting the idea – DO NOT TRADE Rd 1 unless it is an injury trade or rookie corrective!! Its that simple!!

Brook · 09/04/2015 at 20:52

I was all sold on not trading until I read this article.

Currently have a few problems in my team: KK (d4), Cripps (m6) and Salem (f5). Have all the good rookies with possible exception of McGrath (have lamb instead). Have TBC at f4 as swing set with goldy (r1) and Minson (r2). And like many I also have griffin (m5).

Do I hold or take a risk by trading out Minson to the Bont (by swinging TBC into r2) and upgrading griffin to sloane.

Pros: upgrade to rolled gold premo at m5, reduce $ exposure in ruck (was planning on upgrading Minson at some stage), get access to possible breakout candidate in bontempelli

Cons: lose swing set after just one week, risky move with TBC and no cover, probably lots of others

Would still trade twice next week to fix up problems … Hoping that only need to fix 2 out of 3. Would def wait until after Friday game … If Cripps fires, this becomes a bit more appealing.

Anyone else thinking along these lines … Or should I just sit on my hands?

    Mick · 10/04/2015 at 00:33

    Sit

@Seekersupacoach · 09/04/2015 at 21:03

Is Nic Nat a premium and a keeper?

I ask because I have Mumford and I could downgrade him to Nic Nat and upgrade KK to Brodie Smith. Initially Mumford was a short term selection with a downgrade to Nic Nat, Minson anyway. Similarly KK was unlikely to ever be a keeper. It also seems like he will be used as a tagger more often after his role in the second half of Round 1 was quite successful.

I would wait until next week to do these trades but I am worried I may need one or two trades next week due to, as John writes, GAJ, Dusty, injuries or correcting other rookie picks ( ie: Sheed ).

Please advise, thanks

    Brook · 09/04/2015 at 21:28

    I think he is a 'speculative keeper' … could be, but no guarantees. He definitely is not in the same league as Mumford so you could potentially need to trade again to get back to a keeper. But it could work … Either way it seems that holding two expensive rucks is problematic and could be worth the trade if you can shore up another position. Smith is a good option but still a bit risky … Similarly, KK may be worth another look.

    I went into the season with 13 keepers, including 4 speculatives (newnes, griffin, Minson and swan). I am hoping that 3 will last the season but it was a mixed start. I am wondering if I need another solid keeper instead, hence thoughts on down grading Minson to the Bont (a real speculative keeper but the kind that can really work, as per Gray and Parker in 2014) and upgrading griffin to sloane. This would give me a 10/3 mix, hoping for 2 out of 3 speculatives come off. However, I would lose my ruck/fwd swing set. Lots of decisions to make … Perhaps the hardest one is to do nothing?

      @Seekersupacoach · 09/04/2015 at 21:43

      Thanks Brook I'm leaning towards holding off on the trade. Hopefully Mumford, Dusty GAJ and others score better this week, which alleviates trading pressure somewhat. We'll just have see.

        LEKD0G · 09/04/2015 at 23:42

        Mummy/Goldy scored 130 in the pre-season an they were using the new scoring so it's possible. Hold Mummy and he will reward you.

Birdman · 09/04/2015 at 21:22

I have nic nac and Mumford at ruck and TBC in the fwd line and can’t decide if trading is the best option at this stage. At the end of the day u need two top scoring ruckmen by the end of the season. If u trade out Mumford u will probably have to trade him back in later??? All ruck scores will decline so u should focus on having the best two?????

    throttlefinger · 09/04/2015 at 23:12

    Exactly, Birdman. I have Mummy and Goldie. R1 was R1. Let's see how they do. Regardless, if Mummy scores 95+ again and it's again in the top 3 ruck scores, I'd keep. For the reason you mentioned. At worst, Mummy will be a top 5 ruck. Best he'll be the top one.

Pieman 74 · 09/04/2015 at 21:24

Absolutely awesome article! Planning to trade Rockliff to Lewis or Dangerfield. Following the advice in the article, do I trade Miller (GC) to Vandenberg (corrective rookie trade) or Jacobs to Goldstein or Leunberger this week or leave it another week and just trade Rocky.

    throttlefinger · 09/04/2015 at 23:10

    Would wait trading to Vandy, P74. Suggest moving Sauce to Leuy or Goldie (would take the latter, as he will be a top 3 ruck).

    LEKD0G · 09/04/2015 at 23:41

    Hey mate, wait til the last possible minute to trade in rookies, need to be sure they can perform and will be named but yes if all goes well I will also be going Miller to Vandy next week

      Pieman 74 · 11/04/2015 at 07:48

      Thanks throttlefinger and LEKDOG for the sound advice. I will hold on the rookies for this week as I have enough coverage. Only unsure whether to keep Jacobs and see how he goes today or trade him today to Goldy (not much difference in the projected scores), trade newes to B SSmith or do nothing and wait till next week. Wouldn’t be so worried if the leagues didn’t start this week!!!!

LEKD0G · 09/04/2015 at 23:40

I love our community but if we could read the articles BEFORE we post questions asking about who to trade, that'd be great.

    Mick · 10/04/2015 at 00:36

    Cheers !!

    uncle Bob · 10/04/2015 at 08:39

    Should I trade Mummy & Goldy out?

Mister_Spock · 10/04/2015 at 00:47

I've got Scott Selwood ($430K) who's done his ankle again – I know we're saying don't trade in mid-pricers, and I'm trying to limit this week to one trade only, but which is the best option?:

1. Trade in Daniel Rich and generate $60-70K to spend elsewhere
2. Upgrade Selwood to Judd (don't have the spare cash to afford much more than this)
3. Hold off trading and run with another onfield rookie (currently Heeney, Vandenberg on field, Cripps, Miller and COY on bench)

r2d2 · 10/04/2015 at 00:50

I have jaksch…. Am loathe to trade , but clearly he not going to cut it and Is out for 2! Thinking of bringing in t hunt …. Thoughts ?

G · 10/04/2015 at 07:51

Folks need your opinion

Should I replace T.Miller to J. Andersen and t.lamb to McGrath ? Or is it a waste of trades?

    Crowls · 10/04/2015 at 10:36

    waste trades hold off

higgs boson · 10/04/2015 at 08:17

Just want to advise some calm in respect to premo Rucks.

A lot of you are thinking of downgrading to Leuy. But please look at the stats before you do.

Jacobs: 10k 3h, 7marks, 26ho, 1tk and 84%DE

Leuy: 6k, 4hb, 2marks, 25ho, 3tk and 60% DE

There is no way that the level of hit outs to advantage is going to stay that lopsided in favour of Luey. Jacobs will be up there as a top 3 ruck by years end.

Daniel · 10/04/2015 at 09:21

Curious on KEEP GOLDY.
He played a blinder (albeit in a losing team) and only just cracked the ton.
I was considering downgrading to Leuenberger (already have Nic Nat and TBC up forward) and freeing up 200K for an early midprice to keeper premium elsewhere?

    banz · 10/04/2015 at 09:37

    GOLDY played a blinder in a team that got spanked, did you see the point allocation?

    1800 to the crows 1300 to to north, and goldy still tonned up.

    Sounds like a keeper.

      banz · 10/04/2015 at 09:42

      that should read 1800+ to 1300+, also prescaling.

        Daniel · 10/04/2015 at 11:55

        Thanks boys. Good point.

Hazza_08 · 10/04/2015 at 12:21

Is it worth going maric > Nic Nat and the cockatoo > Brayshaw/Van Berlo. Would love your thoughts. Do we trade lamb? cheers community

    Jonathan · 10/04/2015 at 19:54

    No

      jim · 11/04/2015 at 10:43

      fk u

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