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Mad Mick’s Two Cents – Trade Debate

Published by Jock on

Mad Mick's Two CentsGood day community and welcome to this new segment; Mad Mick’s Two Cents. I have a fair few commitments away from the Supercoach game this season (who would have thought, right?) so I won’t be able to get an article out every week.

However you’ll find a few of these pop up from time to time, where I have my say on some of the hotter Supercoach topics during the year. I hope to have a bit of fun with this and I hope you the reader enjoy it too.

Straight into it. I have been inundated on my titter account with questions regarding trading this week. Super sorry if I missed you but I did try to get through as many as I could. For all those of you who have the Jock Reynold’s Supercoach Magazine please refer to the article, “Trading Your Way to Success” before you make any trades. This is single handily the most important Supercoach article you will read in 2015 and if you follow the guidelines set out in here you will literally trade your way to success. For those of you without the magazine I’m afraid the hard copy has sold out but you can still get yourself a PDF copy for the bargain price of $2.99. Less than a price of a coffee, or a redbull if you’re that way inclined. Follow the link if you’re still without and you won’t be disappointed.

DOWNLOAD YOUR JOCK REYNOLDS PRESEASON MAGAZINE HERE – JUST $2.99

Hop Topic – The Rucks

We publicised the Ruck rule changes would knock off 10% of the Rucks scoring capacity all over the preseason, and yet as midprice options appeared thin on the ground we still went ahead and stuffed our teams with overpriced premium Ruckmen. You are not alone. Many will know I spent BIG on Mumford in the Rucks forecasting a massive start with what looked like weak Ruck opponents over the first 4 rounds. I had always planned to trade him out and I was hoping this coincide with the return of Kruezer from injury and other coaches trading Mumford in thinking he is way ahead of the rest this season. Many people will look at the hitout numbers of Mumford and be disappointed with his score of 98. However I actually picked Mumford thinking he would offer a lot more than he showed around the ground. He did not lay a tackle or have a single clearance. In last season corresponding fixture he scored 158 Supercoach points off the back 8 tackles, a goal and 10 more hit outs. He scored what I’d expect from his numbers in this year’s game.

For me it is an easy decision to move him on as I was always going to do so and it is within my trading plan. (That’s right I have a trading plan). I will still keep him for another 2 rounds because there is still a chance he will score 130 in round 2 (and that is very possible) and 115 in round 3 and he won’t actually lose any money. Another sub 100 and I will move him on next week.

However for those of you who have picked Mumford as a season long keeper your dynamic is very different. This applies to all the top end Ruckmen too, Goldstien, Maric, Sandilands etc, and it might be in your best interest to keep them. The temptation is there to go down to one or both of Bellchambers and Luenburger but if you do so you must remember both those will require an upgrade back to a top end guy later this season. Is two trades really worth the potential 100k your top end Ruckman will lose? If you pick a player as a keeper once they’re in your side their price really becomes irrelevant to you. If Scott Pendlebury gets injured in the first minute of a game and scores a zero, yet is fit to play the next week would you trade him out because he is going to lose $100k in value. I think we all know the answer to that and if you’ve answered “yes” then maybe Supercoach isn’t a game for you.

Big decision to be made over the next two weeks but I’d advise hold all players including Rucks if you picked them as a season long keeper.

Itchy Fingers

I love looking at the most traded out players after round 1, as coaches panic trade on the back of one poor score. Rockliff aside the rest of the names I see are Cripps, Griffen, Martin, Selwood and even GOD himself. I’ll get to Cripps later but the rest of the names on this list baffle me. I will assume if you are reading this article you are not one of them. I want to think, I want to believe that if you are a regular visitor to this site, you take your Supercoach seriously and you will know better than to trade any name on that list out.

I will use Ryan Griffen as an example as I have him in my team.

Am I happy with his score of 70? No I am not.

Am I surprised with his score of 70? Once again, no I am not.

I picked Griffen because I felt he is undervalued and very capable of getting back up to an average close to 110. Has anything changed for me? Not a thing. I will analysis Griffen’s second best Supercoach year to draw comparison. The year was 2011 and Griffen managed a 108 average. That very same year Griffen had scores of 76, 85, 75, 95, 78, 59, 94 and 81. Bottom of the toilet scores for one of your so called elite midfielders, but this is what Griffen does. I knew this when I selected him and I just don’t understand how everyone else who selected Griffen was expecting him to produce 110 every round, when his entire career he has been renowned for his inconsistent scores.

What happened in round 1 was Griffen got a hard tag from Weller and smart coaching moved him forward. The tag went with him and the Giant’s midfield dominated through Sheil, Ward, Greene and Treloar. Will this happen every week? Not a chance. Griffen won’t get a hard tag every week because other teams will start to worry about the form players, and a couple of weeks output from Trelaor like that he produced in round 1 will see him getting the tag. It’s then Griffen will get off the leash, and he will produce scores like 156, 130, 129, 144, 145 and 144 like he did back in 2011. When this does happen I want Griffen in my team and so should all the other coaches who are trading him out this week. Their loss.

The same applies to all those considering trading Selwood, Martin and any other Premium that under performed round 1. If they had those same scores in round 16 would you trade them out in round 17? I think not.

Selwood had 6 scores below 100 in 2014 and still managed a 120 average. He didn’t have any as low as his 69 but I’m still backing him to average 116+ this year.

Likewise Martin had 10 scores below 100 in 2014, with a low of 61 and averaged 99 over the year. He will average close to the same again in 2015. Was always wondering why his uptake was so high this preseason. It’s like if coaches didn’t look at what he’s produced in the pass.

Do me a favour and keep faith in your Premiums. Don’t be another coach I have a giggle at when I look at the most traded out players list every week.

Those Expensive Rookies

We’ve paid big for Cripps, Newton and Sheed, expecting a higher output than the cheaper rookies but none of them fired. This one is simple for me, give them another week and if they produce similar output, there is plenty of cheaper rookies out there that should match or better their output and make your team more money. Always allow a couple of corrective trades in round 2 and downgrading one of these underperforming players to a cheaper rookie you have missed is very justifiable in my book. Wait one more week though, last thing you want is the player you trade out going massive the very next week.

Well community that’s my two cents – how much value you assign to it is entirely up to you however.

Stay tuned…..

Mick the Mad Irishman

Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.

 Follow the great man on twitter @Da_Mad_Irishman


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slats7

Another great article by Mad Mick.

Tofor

Top Article full of delicious wisdom.

Dee

Agreed…

shezza

I agree Mad Mick. I have jumped the gun early as I traded Mumford out for Luenberger to free up cash with the mindset I will trade later on for the in form ruck after the byes (my other ruck is Goldstein) and I traded out Henderson (was disappointed with him, not so much his sc score) and upgraded to Brodie Smith. I thought Smith was a flash in the pan last year but watched last week’s game and he played on the wing or as their fifth midfielder. I have sured up my defence which I thought was my weakness and have $108k remaining.

Next week’s thinking is:

Griffen to Pendlebury or sure up my forward line by trading salem to taylor adams and Bartel to Swan.

david

Possible Next week: Mumford and Henderson 100+ , smith and luenberger 60s. Reverse the trades and see one more week of information?

The benchmark

Griffen to pendles is a sideways trade, could come back to bite you. Why is everyone all over the trade button on premiums

Harry

how is it a sideways trade? Pendles is a top 5 mid, while griffin probably won't be a top 15 mid

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Good day Shezza – did you mean to say I disagree Mick?

Because what you are proposing goes against everything I was trying to say. Got to keep Griffen, Salem and Bartel for now. I understand the temptation with the Mumford trade but as I said I'm not sure if it will work out in the long run. I do like Brodie Smith but just don't expect a 105+ average. Still value for a 100 average so see the appeal going from Henderson.

Best of luck with your trading, I hope it works out for you

shezza

No i agree with you, yeah I’ve gone against it. Ill probably reverse trades now!!

shezza

Trades now reversed Mick. Cheers mate.

Dean

You open by saying you agree with Mick, you then say you traded out Mummy for Lueny and also traded out Henderson for Smith.

It's quite simple if you agree with Mick you have the advantage of fixing your mistake by clicking on "Reverse Trade"

Panicking early gives you no chance to win SC or even your league for that matter.

Gilly

Two words Mick, simply awesome! I hope everyone takes a deep breath and if necessary pours a bucket of cold water over themselves before performing a panic trade

David

Griffen is no good. I went Wines and stoked with my decision. I prefer consistant output over his random 110+ score that probably wont happen often. But if you picked him – stick with him, cant jump off. Dont agree with your whole ruck strategy this year but all the best with it!

It is possible it was just one of those weeks for ruckman, and next week we see premos up and about again. As they did score well in the NAB.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Naitanui's stats read 15 disposals (14 contested) 3 clearances 2 tackles 1 goal and 38 hitouts for 92SC points.

In 2014 for 95SC points Naitanui had 12 disposals no clearances 2 tackles no goals and 24 hitouts.

It is not just one of those weeks for ruckman. If their hitout to advantage is less than 20% they just won't tonne up.

Alex

I'm carrying both Goldilocks and the Mummy. Something has to give because I believe you CANNOT afford to have two of them in the same team. The new rule have affected scores more than any of us could have really imagined. Far too much cash will bleed. I'm trading out Mummy for nicnat and upgrading KK in the backline. I'm wasn't tool happy to see KK assigned the shutdown role. Corrective trades are important and I'm not prepared to sit on my hands and not use a trade this week then be stuffed next week when I need to make more than 2 corrections.

Tofor

I have them both and I'm keeping them both unless they get injured. They will still average around 100.
Few Rucks will. If you get rid of them, you're getting less points in the Ruck positions.
Yeah, I'll lose a couple 100k value but I'll use trades elsewhere.

evs

I’m not in this position, but I agree that if you have two premo (500k+) rucks then you need to trade one out. You can absorb the losses of one, but absorbing the losses of two is a lot of cash. Especially if one gets injured and you have to trade them out later. Better to lessen that risk by getting rid of one this week to a mid pricier and allowing for two more correctives next week.

Dee

Hold KK and Mumford…. Waste of 2 trades if you get rid of them now.

The Pom

Great reassuring article Mick. What's your opinion on corrective trading mid pricers, such as Ibbo and Newnes, who aren't playing the role you'd hoped they'd play when you initially picked them. Worth a trade after round two even if sitting on their average for current price?

Jimi

Mick’s just about my favourite contributor. Always thorough, logical and level headed. Another quality article.

Jimi

Sorry that wasn’t meant to be a reply to your comment. Stupid iPhone.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Very dangerous sideways trading midpricers. Unless you find a season long keeper with a midprice sideways trade then I don't think it is worth it. Ride them out or corrective downgrade would be my advise – unless you think there is a midprice keeper you have missed. Not too many to them so be very careful

The Pom

I was considering downgrading Ibbo to T.Hunt and upgrading Newnes to a premo, such as B.Smith, before respective price drops and increases occur. Is it worth the two trades? Stick or twist eh! It would obviously be an easy decision if Ibbo and Newnes smashed it this week but based on the roles they played in R1 I don't think that's going to happen.

randomcliche

Yes if the downgrade is to a corrective rookie. Otherwise I think t hunt is just another speco sideways after n=1 2015 judgment games.

@Beastiano

Absolutely spot on Mick.

Chris

Went with 2 of the big name rucks this year – Goldy and Maric. Yes, they will probably decrease in value, but I knew that. Good reliable workers in teams who go with a sole ruck.

Wasn't a fan of Leuy or NicNat and think people justifying it by the drop in ruck output are kidding themselves. ALL rucks output will drop. the top guys will drop in value but your midprice option also won't make as much cash. Ultimately the staregy is the same as any other selection you make – midprice vs premium vs rookie.

Will only 1 bench spot I've gone 2 reliable guys on the field and plan to not trade at all. I've even spent some extra cash to have TBC on the bench as an insurance policy. Depending when Kreuzer comes back, I might even downgrade to him on the bench for cash generation. Or maybe if a premium ruck goes down through the season and a cheap backup starts getting regular gametime. I can switch TBC to the forward line if I want to give me extra flexibility.

Safety first in the rucks for me this year.

CJay

Great article Mick much appreciated.
Yes I often pick up the the bible (Jock Reynolds Mag) and refer to it when I want to check my decisions.
At $2.99 you are buying a premium at a rookie price.

CJay

Sos Chris was meant to be separate post.
Yep I to went big in the Rucks but holding for now.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Makes sense Chris – glad you done the research first and are sticking by your planned structures. You will find it will all come together for you in the long run

Jel

Very similar to my plan. I've got Goldy & Maric as my rucks, hopefully for the season.
I went for Read as my ruck bench and put TBC as my F4. The plan is to upgrade some forward rookies around bye time so that TBC becomes my F6 and provides cover for the rucks.

Favalinko u Beauty

Have the same structure Jel and I am very confidant in it for the long term. I doubt that Berger and Bell will play every game and those coaches who have them as R1 and R2 will pay dearly because they wont have the cash to replace them with when they do go down. Bell has already having problems with his knee. Bells biggest plus is his ruck cover and not R or R2

Muddiemoose

Awesome as always mick

Ben

Good advice 🙂

I have Kane Lambert sitting on my forward bench – if he's not playing this week, should I try get J McGrath in?

carlashirley90

Yes

Will do the same need cash generation

TheDarkKnight27

You could wait one more week to see if Lambert gets a run.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

He will probably play so don't panic – If not then I'd bring in a cash generation rookie

Dee

Agreed…. Waste of trade if you trade out Lambert now, will definitely bring him in later for a downgrade option…

shane

Even if Lambert doesn't play, I would only trade him out if he wont get games in the future.

Scenario 1 Step 1 Trade Lambert – Mcgrath (1 trade, lose 15k) …. Mcgrath reach 300k (downgrade, make 190k)

Result = 2 trades for a profit of 175k

Scenario 2 Hold Lambert until he plays, say he underperforms and only reaches 250k, Downgrade makes you 135k and only 1 trade

WELCOME

shane

I currently have krakour and will hold, as I put the research in and have all of the must have rookies, only good score I missed was mcrath, but he wont get krakour's spot unless he pumps out 80+ and looks like reaching 350 – 400 k

Dee

Lambert is named this week…. how did I know. LOL.

GaryReal

Sometimes doing moves against the grain pay off long term.
No rule applies for every case.
Being innovative or panicking are merely distinguished by the results later.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Spot on Gary – however if you play the percentages the better odds are to keep calm and not trade off the back of one poor performance.
However I understand what you mean and any trade now that pays off will look genius come the end of the year. Risk vs Reward

CJay

Great article Mick much appreciated.
Yes I often pick up the the bible (Jock Reynolds Mag) and refer to it when I want to check my decisions.
At $2.99 you are buying a premium at a rookie price.

Frank

Great article Mick!
Not sure about sticking fat with Martin – not sure he has the professional mindset required this day and age. His scores have plateaued for 4 years now. I’m not saying he doesn’t have talent but I think with today’s AFL standards there comes a time when natural talent isn’t going to cut it, especially with his game style. More suited to 80’s/90’s football maybe. He doesn’t spend enough time in the gym judging by the lack of definition in his arms, and reports he’s improved his running tank are sort of meh. The kids coming into the system now are all running sub 10 3k and going 15+ on the beep. Watching Bontempelli run through his Scott Selwood tag vs watching Dusty lumber around wishing Deledio hit Simon White harder is enough for me to decide that my $534,000 could be better spent elsewhere. Dusty should look more like Dylan Shiel by now after 5 years in the system.
Disclaimer – I do have Martin and Bontempelli and I'm cutting Dusty loose for Docherty with Goddard swing. Rewatched Thursday's game last night and am happy to make that trade after 1 round.

NickyV

fair enough frank. and with the 50 score he will definately loose money, i doubt he will get 150 next game he plays.

Fourbells

Totally agree. Wish I kept to my original decision not to include dusty from the start. Big call to make. As GaryReal stated, sometimes doing moves against the grain pay off long term.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Frank,

you seem quite sure in your reasoning and I always encourage people go with their gut. If I could veto this trade however I would. Keep faith in your Premiums. Martin will be top 8 forward for sure which is enough to justify him as your F6 come the end of the year. Trade in around him and if Martin eventually goes to F6 you will have a very strong forward line.

Can I ask the question, why at 7:00pm Thursday night was Martin a good enough player to pick in your team?

Frank

Good question Mick. Been asking myself the same thing.
The long answer is I didn’t have the chance to watch many NAB games so predominantly picked my team based purely on numbers and research only. His NAB numbers stacked up great and there was a bit of talk about his increased tank which was always one of his cons. How many times had he been 60 SC at half-time only to deliver a 90 or so at full-time? Lots.
He had never made my team before. Previous years I chose players that I personally liked. A selection criteria I’ve removed this year. No longer are Stanton, Deledio and Tippett my first 3 picks. So I figured this was the year for Dusty.
Then I watched Thursday’s game.
The research I had done didn’t reflect the performance I saw. I was expecting a bit more effort and run. Upon deeper digging, I discovered his pre-season numbers were fluffed up by the Port NAB game when he dominated against their second’s team. Something he has a habit of doing. His top 4 scores from 2013-2014 were 150, 148, 137 and 134. The 150 was against the Dogs in 2013, a team who at Round 19 were 5 wins 13 losses. 35 touches, 31 uncontested. Tigers by 11 goals. The 148 was last year against Sydney and probably one of the better games of his career. Won’t dispute those numbers. 27 of his 36 were uncontested. The 137 and 134 were both against Western Sydney, Round 22 2013 and Round 10 2014 respectively. The Tigers won by a combined 39 goals and again 56 of his 69 were uncontested.
I’m not saying downhill skiing is bad, and uncontested points do add up all the same, but in 2013 he had the most at Richmond so was their first choice outside mid. Last year he was second to Ellis. This year it will be Ellis again and from early signs Hunt will be competing for some also. Grigg is still there abouts too. Miles and Cotchin get their own ball. Deledio is Deledio.
I agree Dusty is a gun don’t get me wrong, and I agree he will put on a big performance here and there. It is just something I don’t want to rely on. I am just making a call that his average won’t go from 99 to 105 like I’d hoped 7 days ago, but instead may shrink to 95 or so. Robbie Gray is the new benchmark, and it’s my own call that Dusty won’t be a top 10 forward come Round 23. A call that is opposite to my opinion 7 days ago, when I gave him that Round 1 guernsey.
On the other hand Docherty was at the back of every pack, lurking, waiting for the out the back. His teammates know he is there and looks to be their distributor. He zones off his man well when he can and is a great reader of the play. He takes kick outs and doesn’t mind the ol’ kick to yourself. I’ve seen enough to be satisfied. I’m making my call that he will be a top 10 defender. I didn’t want to trade out Heath Shaw, Lumumber or McDonald (3 top 15 defenders imo), nor Haynes or Goodes (stepping stones). Goddard was down back with the swing. Gray, Swan and Bontempelli aren’t going anywhere. It was basically out of Dusty and Bartel. Truth be told I’m moving them both on. Already had every rookie I need and happy to have $550,000 in the kitty till next week.

eatemalive

Frank, you should have started with 'Once upon a time ' but you do make some interesting and debatable points.

SideBySidebottom

You certainly have some strong opinions and your rationale is hard to fault. I'm just not sure that any forward is a reliable scorer, that's the domain of the elite midfielders but Martin has averaged 99, 89, 102 and 99 over the last four years respectively. That's premium for a forward and very hard to match even though I emphatically agree with your assessment of him.

@RyanRhino14

What do you guys think of a Griffen to Bontempelli trade? I've been toying with the idea of trading in The Bont either this week or next for Griffen because it would give me an extra 100k for upgrades and give me the DDP swing with The Bont as a MID

@Da_Mad_Irishman

I think Griffen will average more than Bontempelli so I don't like this trade at all

Muzza

Do you think Bontempelli will be a top 8 forward justifying the trade and upgrading Griffen to top 8 mid

Kev

I'm staying away from Bont. Round 1 has shown he will attract the tag and it's a complete unknown if he can deal with it week in/week out. If he can he is first picked 2016.

@RyanRhino14

my thought is maybe if I did it at the bye rounds I could maybe upgrade 1 of my rookie fwd's to a fallen premo mid using bontempelli

cam

Who is the better mid priced ruck option…..
TBC or luey

NickyV

depends on who you think will score more points. I think luey will tbh. But i also think luey is more likely to get injured.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Rumor has it TBC will miss this week – more panic trading for those without cover

NickyV

Great article Mick, as always! What should I do, I have kk collarjazzknee, salem, cripps, griffen and others that underpreformed. If these guys underpreform again next week and I don't trade this week I will only have 2 corrective trades and more than 2 people that I need to correct. Should I trade this week and next week so I get in the players that will go up in price and correct all of my mistakes, or, do I stick to my players and potentionally loose heaps of cash? Cheers community.

cam

back in griffen, dont sideways trade premos based off round 1. as for the other 3 you have to give them another week before making a decision. youd be kickin yourself if you unloaded kk especially based off one round and then rocket eade injects him into midfield and he tons up. personally cripps is my biggest concern, im heavily considering replacing him for a daniel rich if he explodes this week with the absense of rocky. people are suggesting he will cop a tag but i think beams is much more likely to be shut down. wait a week nickyV then assess

TheDarkKnight27

I think like me its time to stick fat. I would hate to see Cripps, Salem and Griffen all ton up next week!

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Keep Salem, Cripps (for one more week) and Griffen. See if KK has a run with role again this week and if so look to downgrade him to a rookie and upgrade a Cripps if he is no good this week.

Kev

Take a deep breath, NickyV. If you go trading under performing players every week you'll be out of trades after the byes.

Aaron Harvey

Great article mate you made some very valid points, and you would of got alot of people thinking including myself

TheDarkKnight27

Awesome and timely article Oh Mad One! Everyone seems to have very itchy fingers indeed myself included. But reading your article has given me pause to think and refrain from hitting that trade button on the likes of Cripps and Saad (FWD) was looking to do the Double Demon Downgrade to Hogan and Vandenberg. But for now will sit tight, give them another week and then re-evaluate.

@Da_Mad_Irishman

Keep Salem, Cripps (for one more week) and Griffen. See if KK has a run with role again this week and if so look to downgrade him to a rookie and upgrade a Cripps if he is no good this week.

DigDug

Hi Mick,

I didn't get a chance to remove Lambert and Hamling from my bench. Should I correct them to a Lonie/Brown? or leave them there as Hamling and Lambert should play soon enough?

Also….. Ibbotson. Do I hold him?

Boggers

Not Mad Mick but as I have the same players, I will tell what I'm doing with them – instead of trading at this stage I'm using them to try to maximize my defense and forward scoring by setting up the emergency loophole. Worked beautifully last week but trickier this week with no defense opportunity for me (Saad & Mc). Got Krak in the mids for the same. Next week may see me change my mind but after being stung by a couple of "hero" rookies last season I am trying to be a bit more patient in 2015.

dellagz

Alot of trading going on and we are 1 week in!

Derek

Bang bang!

Derek

I saw article saying Bellchambers has been cleared to play this weekend, but I’m still nervous when I see clubs say things like that. I have him at R2 (not F4)

Kerrie

Shaun McKernan has been picked for the bombers so this interesting re TBC

Favalinko u Beauty

Having Bellie at R2 is very risky. You wont sleep to well for the next couple of nights. Whats your plan B if he is not playing?

Insayne05

Great read Mick, this is my first year in super coach but I have been a regular visitor here for the last couple of years and always wanting to learn and gain knowledge from everyone here.
The biggest lesson for me has been the trades, when and how to use them and not pull the trigger to early. Coming from fantasy were you have 2 free kicks every week to being a lot more conservative with your trades in super coach will be what I will be mindful of.
I did have to make 1 trade this week as I had Rocky and dont want that cash sitting on the pine so have gone to another proven premium in Barlow.

tom

why are people looking to upgrade rookies before there prices have even gone up?

I get that Cripps underperformed but he should still rise in price therefore making more cash generation and saving us money.

can someone explain why you wouldnt just wait for til after round threeto upgrade a rookie even if their cash generation is small?

Worm

Holding another week is probably the way to go, but Cripps just didn't look like a scorer to me… seemed to prefer handball to kick, Carlton in for a rough year (I hope) and most likely at least 400 of their points going to Murphy, Gibbs, Judd and Simpson each week… just can't see him averaging much higher than 60 and being priced around 280k at byes. If you don't have Heeney, Vandenberg etc then I see this as a valid trade option – these guys will nearly make as much at the first price change. That said, maybe wait another week.

Kev

Cripps not averaging much higher than 60?! You mist have missed his NAB cup scores of 78, 106, and 119, Worm.

He was starved of clearance numbers against the Tigers (recording only 1). Stick by him

Jay

Worth waiting to see what Andrew Swallow produces this week? or downgrading to a Rich or even another rookie for more cash generation?

Worm

You would expect that as captain, Swallow will bounce back in a big way this week. Think Rich needs another week too before jumping on. That said, congrats to those who started with Rich!

I N Pieman

Great article Mick. Seeing loads of people culling premos & based on one weeks evidence its dangerous to say the least. Long tem injury fair enough & if you missed some rookies then fair call to. This all seems like a good idea now. But when we get to SC finals people will be looking back & thinking why did I do that.

Youngster

Agreed. We've all been there, a handful of trades with finals to come then injuries, suspensions and resting players hit and all of a sudden you're fielding non scoring players because your bench coverage is hopeless. As Mick said, you wouldn't trade a player in round 16 because of a bad score, why do it now? I'm spewing that I have to waste a trade on Rocky but trading out fit premos is crazy.

Drew

what your thoughts on trading ablett wish his shoulder the way it is? is it worth keeping him or trade him now?

Crowmagnon

Wait at least one more week and then probably still no. Later in the year when you have no cash and no trades you'll be wishing you hadn't made that trade.

Kev

What's wrong with how his shoulder is? Scored 120 so I don't care if he's playing with a broken leg!

the dilemma

Mick I too went with Mummy and NicNat along with Bellchambers in the forward line. My thinking was in-line with yourself… "Mummy will go banana's playing those exact same early teams as last season." The plan was to ditch Mummy and get God Jnr. about round 5/6. My question is, if Mummy goes sub 100 again would you bother bringing Ablett in at this stage? I'm kind of answering this myself by saying – Ablett looked really average, is a good chance of missing games early, was only on 40 points at halftime then 70 at the end of the 3rd.

Dean

You would be crazy to consider putting in GAJ now if you don't have him. By not having GAJ early was a great move and will save you minimum $100k

Come round 6 or so you'll have a much better gauge as to where he is at both physically and mentally and providing he doesn't miss games because I believe it's highly likely that GAJ will be rested, however if that doesn't eventuate then I think he is a MUST have come round 6 or so after seeing the guy score 119 with only one arm.

Dave2008

Mick I am thinking Cripps to NVB if he scores poorly this week and NVB has a good score. Also maybe Cockatoo to Mcgrath?

Crowmagnon

Thinking similar. NVB has good job security and should be reasonably consistent. We will know more after this round. Not sure about McGrath but I was dissapointed with Cockatoo too, maybe him to NVB will be the way to go. Need about 35k for this trade though.

Dave2008

Yep im in the same boat just a few k short so would need another trade

julz

What to do with Deledio? The suspension aside, I’m concerned he got subbed off and from all talk that was part of the plan and he will be carefully managed this year.

A trade to Bont or Tex and pocket 100k is tempting. Or could do switcheroos and use money from Lids to sure up defence or buy another midfielder like Wines.

Thoughts Mick or esteemed community members,!

Leon

I'm in the same boat, worries me that the coach said he would have missed rd2 anyway with a calf, yes a calf …. a new injury. Tex seems to the sensible move with the first month the crows have. Not chasing scores, more corrective after injury and suspension news. Thoughts community?

SCaddict

Well done Mick on a decent start to the season ranked well inside the top 2% already. Thought you were in a world of hurt when Rocky went down given your team reveal last week but looks like the big Texan and Dangermouse saved the day for the Mayhem.

No real mention of Gazza up there so I take it you are not too worried. Gotta say my concern level is pretty high and I've even entertained scenarios preemptively punting him this week, for say Sloanedog, so I can focus next weeks trades on 2 potential rookie corrections if need be rather than deal with Gaz next week if things turn sour this Saturday which I see as a distinct possibility.

Even if he gets through these games it's just hard to see Gaz dominating the comp with one and a half shoulders right now but I guess if anyone could it would be him. As Jock said on the poddie that 119 is perhaps reassuring coaches who have him more than it should.

Big Plums

I recon you should get rid of Gaz mate, you seem fairly convinced he's not right. Hit the button…

randomcliche

Agreed.

@leslieboan

Great article Mick, must say I've had a little chuckle at the trades going on this week myself. I have Griffen, Cripps, Martin and Salem in my team, but still scored a 2195, so I'm sticky tight and not making a single trade this week. My rucks are Goldy and Maric, and I think they will be in the top 6 rucks so will hold them all year, I don't have any cover if one goes down I have enough value to trade in another ruck. Will see how Cripps goes this week and my make a corrective trade on him. So far so good, no panic here.

Crowmagnon

I would really like to hold on to The Rock. I realize this would hurt my overall score but I am in it for the league. Brisbane and Hawthorn both play Sunday afternoon, so I am considering holding the trade until then. If I am smashing my opponent, all good. If it is too close I can then trade Rocky to Lewis at lunchtime Sunday and hopefully get the 4 points. I have heard that he can't fly for 6 weeks though which would kill my theory, but he is already recovering an awesome rate. Would love to hear other coaches thoughts.

Sarah

No way, trade him!! He's far too expensive to hold for that long.

Crowmagnon

Yeah, I know you are right. I managed to get my rookies in order, thanks community, so I guess 1 trade won't kill me. Thanks Sarah.

Youngster

I agree that this could be a feasible approach, on a week by week basis. I have considered exactly the same thing with the Sunday trade to Lewis if it looks like the smart thing to do. I plan on using Rocky as the emergency loophole for my rookies to see if I can get a decent score on the board and if not, Rocky to Lewis is a done deal. If the rookie pulls a good score, I can see where things are at next week and make a call on Rocky then. Good luck Crowmagnon.

Bird of Rain

Nice one Mick and agree with everything you say. Having said that I need someone to talk me out of this….. I have Maric and Nic Nat in ruck and Bellchambers as a swing forward. With this ruck change it appears coverage is not as important this year. I predict ruck prices will level out and straight sideways trade for ruck injuries will be easier.
If I trade Maric and swing Bellchambers I can bring in Zorko (can't see him getting the tag this year) which I predict
would improve my scoring potential with only the one trade.

SideBySidebottom

A bird in the hand……..

Youngster

I have the identical ruck structure but you simply can't trade Maric out after one game. TBC offers coverage for a ruck injury where you can use your forward bench to cover the TBC swing into the ruck. You will be forced to field a non scoring ruckman or burn another trade to cover him if you ditch your third ruckman. That's 2 trades in my book or you field a donut during the bye rounds or when injury strikes (NicNat is a good candidate for a rest at some point). If this is currently your biggest issue then you're doing well.

General Soreness

Ripping article Mick, based on some of the comments in this thread, that wooooshing sound I heard was obviously your wisdoms going straight over some heads. The main thing I took from it, "Trading Plan" everyone should have one. The second most important thing "Keep faith in Premos" and given how mine went last week I expect to go top 100 this week lol.

Kev

i heard that woosh! as well, GS. My favourite comments are the ones which start with "agree with everything you've said, Mick" then continue with a convoluted multi week trade scenario in the exact opposite to what Mick has said.

FYI – "Cash generation" is not trading your preseason premium keeper to a mid price flavour of a week. It will take longer and use up more trades to get your team to full premium.

Sc newby

Personally I'm just hoping ppl do get itchy fingers and trade there arse off, I had around 6 players underperform majorly and was still pretty happy cracking 2000, thinking I should of went Newton over cripps like my gut told me to but otherwise expecting a much better performance round 2

kevwal

Must..Not..Trade..Must..Not..Trade.. All my thirty players scored. No injuries. Must..Not..Trade.

Seb

Who was your r3?

Seb

When I look at Jack Newnes's stats from the weekend I'm pretty happy with my selection(yes, I am aware he only scored 69 points). He had 7 kicks and 7 handballs with 92 disposal efficiency(which would have been 100 if he kicked a goal instead of a behind). He also had 3 marks and 3 tackles. Seems alright.
The big loss in points was that he had 1 free for, but 5 frees against(I'm sure this won't happen every week). Now, if he had 0 frees against, he would have scored 89 points from a 14 disposal game.
What I see here is potential for some very high scores for when he has a reasonably good day.

LEKD0G

That's it mate

Dean

Great write up Mick…

Those who are serious about SC feel free to join this league: 610628

Good luck to all

Shaun

Ur send a message banner is covering the text on phones. Fix please

the sprinkler

So I hear TBC is sore after game 1 so Bombers have upgraded Mc Kernan. OUCH! Ring that bell for the injury prone- or those soft dumplings like TBC. Damn flog.

Seb

How sore?

SideBySidebottom

He's not a flog he's sending a strong message to everyone thinking of downgrading premium rucks to either Leuenberger or him.

He's really a champion of faith.

Dean

He is listed to play, whether he ends up being a late withdrawal or gets the snot vest, time will tell.

early teams

T Lamb dropped

the sprinkler

theres more than that mate

the sprinkler

K Lambert in

the sprinkler

T McKenzie dropped

Tom

Who to start on field

Cripps or Heeney

Lambert or Hogan

throttlefinger

Heeney and Hogan. We got a nice glimpse of both. In fact, I'm looping Cripps this week with CEY.

SideBySidebottom

It's a bit like two-up. The more heads you toss, the less likely they'll come up next.

After one game with rookies, the less likely the higher scorer is likely to score higher.

Mick

Great insight that and true !!!

Luviboy1

Scott Selwood has been dropped for the game tomorrow. Do I hang onto him or trade him out?

Dean

hold on to him

Seb

Trade, his ankle isn't right.

Daymo

What round do the leagues start this season, is it in Round 2?

Luviboy1

Correct.

throttlefinger

2 cents! Hell that was $200 worth, Mick!

And addressed the issues swirling through my brain this week, specifically Mummy and Griff. Your Griffen example was a bucket of cold water, reminding me of his tendencies and the likelihood that he gets that sort of attention every week.

Brilliant article, MMIM!

Patty

Does any one think Martin to Walker is a good idea? or save the trade

Lock

was thinking the same thing

Luviboy1

You're chasing points. Don't burn a trade on Martin just yet. Just because he had a bad game on Thursday doesn't mean that will be his form through the whole season. Stick firm with Dusty.

Dools

Great Idea …Absolutely… Ignore the Article and the advice…. DO It…

Dee

LOL. Some people hey….

Mick

I love sarcasm !

Kim

I suggest you have a look at barons scouting report on walkers av against Collingwood and also at Etihad stadium, he scores very poorly against Coll played 5 times for an av of 50. And only averages 64 at Etihad stadium as well. Sure he could come out and tear it apart again but I'm not so sure. If Martin isn't tagged this week he will probably kill it. Martin is certainly a season keeper and I'm willing to bet he out scores walker over the season. There's also the fact that walker has NEVER played close to a full season so he is far more of an injury risk than Martin. Do some research before making rash trades especially with proven premos like Martin. Carl is martins worst team they always tag him and he often scores poorly. If picked goes to Cotchin then Martin I think will score well this week.

Dools

Excellent advice Mick
Some people can't read or take advice….Fridge and I are getting annoyed!!!
Lift community…Jezz , Same Q again and Again!!! Have you read the article? Have you read the response's?? Have you got your Copy of The SC Bible? Did you purchase the PDF of the Bible????
Why did you select the players you selected??? you thought they could perform. This is Week One The race is a marathon not a sprint chillax……….. Hit the Trade Button when you have a plan or you want to corrective rookies NOT Premos. Or you have 600K Ruckmen that you don't like….Rant over…."To the Fridge!! – Its a Trade Free Zone…..

LEKD0G

There is always sanctity in the fridge

Youngster

Save the trade, you want both in your team. You'd be trading out one keeper for another. Work out a way to get Tex in via a mid price upgrade or stepping stone player. Martin won't always score poorly and Tex won't always have insane scoring so don't chase last week's points.