Mad Mick’s Two Cents – Trade Debate
Good day community and welcome to this new segment; Mad Mick’s Two Cents. I have a fair few commitments away from the Supercoach game this season (who would have thought, right?) so I won’t be able to get an article out every week.
However you’ll find a few of these pop up from time to time, where I have my say on some of the hotter Supercoach topics during the year. I hope to have a bit of fun with this and I hope you the reader enjoy it too.
Straight into it. I have been inundated on my titter account with questions regarding trading this week. Super sorry if I missed you but I did try to get through as many as I could. For all those of you who have the Jock Reynold’s Supercoach Magazine please refer to the article, “Trading Your Way to Success” before you make any trades. This is single handily the most important Supercoach article you will read in 2015 and if you follow the guidelines set out in here you will literally trade your way to success. For those of you without the magazine I’m afraid the hard copy has sold out but you can still get yourself a PDF copy for the bargain price of $2.99. Less than a price of a coffee, or a redbull if you’re that way inclined. Follow the link if you’re still without and you won’t be disappointed.
DOWNLOAD YOUR JOCK REYNOLDS PRESEASON MAGAZINE HERE – JUST $2.99
Hop Topic – The Rucks
We publicised the Ruck rule changes would knock off 10% of the Rucks scoring capacity all over the preseason, and yet as midprice options appeared thin on the ground we still went ahead and stuffed our teams with overpriced premium Ruckmen. You are not alone. Many will know I spent BIG on Mumford in the Rucks forecasting a massive start with what looked like weak Ruck opponents over the first 4 rounds. I had always planned to trade him out and I was hoping this coincide with the return of Kruezer from injury and other coaches trading Mumford in thinking he is way ahead of the rest this season. Many people will look at the hitout numbers of Mumford and be disappointed with his score of 98. However I actually picked Mumford thinking he would offer a lot more than he showed around the ground. He did not lay a tackle or have a single clearance. In last season corresponding fixture he scored 158 Supercoach points off the back 8 tackles, a goal and 10 more hit outs. He scored what I’d expect from his numbers in this year’s game.
For me it is an easy decision to move him on as I was always going to do so and it is within my trading plan. (That’s right I have a trading plan). I will still keep him for another 2 rounds because there is still a chance he will score 130 in round 2 (and that is very possible) and 115 in round 3 and he won’t actually lose any money. Another sub 100 and I will move him on next week.
However for those of you who have picked Mumford as a season long keeper your dynamic is very different. This applies to all the top end Ruckmen too, Goldstien, Maric, Sandilands etc, and it might be in your best interest to keep them. The temptation is there to go down to one or both of Bellchambers and Luenburger but if you do so you must remember both those will require an upgrade back to a top end guy later this season. Is two trades really worth the potential 100k your top end Ruckman will lose? If you pick a player as a keeper once they’re in your side their price really becomes irrelevant to you. If Scott Pendlebury gets injured in the first minute of a game and scores a zero, yet is fit to play the next week would you trade him out because he is going to lose $100k in value. I think we all know the answer to that and if you’ve answered “yes” then maybe Supercoach isn’t a game for you.
Big decision to be made over the next two weeks but I’d advise hold all players including Rucks if you picked them as a season long keeper.
I love looking at the most traded out players after round 1, as coaches panic trade on the back of one poor score. Rockliff aside the rest of the names I see are Cripps, Griffen, Martin, Selwood and even GOD himself. I’ll get to Cripps later but the rest of the names on this list baffle me. I will assume if you are reading this article you are not one of them. I want to think, I want to believe that if you are a regular visitor to this site, you take your Supercoach seriously and you will know better than to trade any name on that list out.
I will use Ryan Griffen as an example as I have him in my team.
Am I happy with his score of 70? No I am not.
Am I surprised with his score of 70? Once again, no I am not.
I picked Griffen because I felt he is undervalued and very capable of getting back up to an average close to 110. Has anything changed for me? Not a thing. I will analysis Griffen’s second best Supercoach year to draw comparison. The year was 2011 and Griffen managed a 108 average. That very same year Griffen had scores of 76, 85, 75, 95, 78, 59, 94 and 81. Bottom of the toilet scores for one of your so called elite midfielders, but this is what Griffen does. I knew this when I selected him and I just don’t understand how everyone else who selected Griffen was expecting him to produce 110 every round, when his entire career he has been renowned for his inconsistent scores.
What happened in round 1 was Griffen got a hard tag from Weller and smart coaching moved him forward. The tag went with him and the Giant’s midfield dominated through Sheil, Ward, Greene and Treloar. Will this happen every week? Not a chance. Griffen won’t get a hard tag every week because other teams will start to worry about the form players, and a couple of weeks output from Trelaor like that he produced in round 1 will see him getting the tag. It’s then Griffen will get off the leash, and he will produce scores like 156, 130, 129, 144, 145 and 144 like he did back in 2011. When this does happen I want Griffen in my team and so should all the other coaches who are trading him out this week. Their loss.
The same applies to all those considering trading Selwood, Martin and any other Premium that under performed round 1. If they had those same scores in round 16 would you trade them out in round 17? I think not.
Selwood had 6 scores below 100 in 2014 and still managed a 120 average. He didn’t have any as low as his 69 but I’m still backing him to average 116+ this year.
Likewise Martin had 10 scores below 100 in 2014, with a low of 61 and averaged 99 over the year. He will average close to the same again in 2015. Was always wondering why his uptake was so high this preseason. It’s like if coaches didn’t look at what he’s produced in the pass.
Do me a favour and keep faith in your Premiums. Don’t be another coach I have a giggle at when I look at the most traded out players list every week.
Those Expensive Rookies
We’ve paid big for Cripps, Newton and Sheed, expecting a higher output than the cheaper rookies but none of them fired. This one is simple for me, give them another week and if they produce similar output, there is plenty of cheaper rookies out there that should match or better their output and make your team more money. Always allow a couple of corrective trades in round 2 and downgrading one of these underperforming players to a cheaper rookie you have missed is very justifiable in my book. Wait one more week though, last thing you want is the player you trade out going massive the very next week.
Well community that’s my two cents – how much value you assign to it is entirely up to you however.
Mick the Mad Irishman
Mick is one of the production crew members and a key writer for the inaugural Jock Reynolds Fantasy football magazine. He is a risk taker, pint drinker, deep thinker and just that little bit mad, but time and time again he has proved to be one of the best fantasy minds in the country. He has finished in the top 1% of game players for the last 5 years, with a season high finish of 27 in 2013.