Mick’s Supercoach Team Reveal 2015
Community this has been the biggest preseason I have ever done. I was supposed to get this team reveal out on Sunday but for one reason or other I panicked, questioned all my selections, even the ones I was certain in and told Jock I needed more time.
I have spent the last three nights sleepless, have found myself zoning out at work thinking about Ablett’s shoulder, Swan’s NAB output, Naitanui’s sore back, has Newnes hoodwinked us all? So many question marks on so many of my selections. I’d hit the “Clear my Team” button and stare at a blank team for hours on end. I had gotten Supercoach block.
Had I burnt myself out? I did start my preseason way back in September when we started putting together inaugural Jock Reynolds supercoach magazine. It has felt like an eternity since then and all the time I have been focusing on Supercoach 2015. Last night I put out a tweet and the replies really hit home, and I really want to thank this great community for getting behind me, settling me back down and allowing me to finalise my 2015 Team. Massive thanks to you all.
Today I came home from work, reread the Jock Reynolds Magazine and gone through my Team building articles on the website. I have drawn from both, stuck to my structures, my lessons learnt and finalised my Supercoach Team.
Mad Mick’s Mayhem 2015
My structure: Midpricer
Once again community I am going with a Midprice strategy in 2015. The reason for this is simple and comes down to Supercoach Behavioural Science. In order to be a Supercoach winner you must distance yourself from the group think and shoal behaviour. As you all know my good friend Peter Higginbotham has wrote a wonderful article in our magazine outlining the shoal and shark behaviour. This is my favourite article in the magazine and really reinforces my belief that I can distance myself from the group within the scope of a Midprice strategy.
If you look at all the winning teams from over the last 5 years, all of them have taken risks with their starting squads and found season long keepers in midprice players. Last year’s winner started with both Parker and Swallow and was quick to jump on Gray early. Having all three of these players separated Patrick Warman’s C-Money from the shoal and propelled him to Supercoach supremacy.
Last season I started with 11 midprice players but after reviewing my structures from last season I always was going to limit my exposure to 8 maximum in 2015. I have settled for 7.
Points on the board early. I am hoping this team will get me off to a flying start. The draw has been accessed and I am confident some of my more speculative picks will get off to a fast start. I know I am one of the best traders in the game so if I’m ranked in the top 500 before the byes I’ll back myself in to be in with a shout for the top prize for the run home over the last three rounds.
Selections of community debate:
Gary Ablett (MID $734,600K).
I have U-turned on this selection over the last two weeks more times than I care to mention. It was a lot. I spoke with conviction on the Podcast that I can’t go in with him but after rereading the magazine and my “Team building Articles” I have backed in my earlier preseason assessments and slotted him back in my team. I had made great plans to start with Mumford instead but then I thought to myself why don’t I start with both.
What I said in “Supercoach Team Building” article
“This Now I’ve got a slight problem here, as a couple of my lessons from last year clash on this selection. Lesson 4 states all my players must have completed a full preseason and lesson 8 states I must select Gary Ablett. As you may or may not know Gary has still yet to participate in full contact training which means he technically doesn’t meet lesson 4 criteria. However this injury has not affected Gary’s aerobic training and he is arguably fitter than ever. He has smashed his personal best in the 2km time trial and hasn’t missed a beat since he started running back in November. If the injury was foot related and affected his fitness base I’d be more concerned as this would lead to him struggling to run games out and the likelihood of more rest time forward. Rodney Eade has come out this week and said Ablett will once again play the majority of his time through the midfield. Nat Fyfe had a very similar preseason in 2014 only doing aerobic work due to his shoulder recovery and still managed to have a career best year.”
What I said in the Jock Reynolds Magazine
Tex Walker (MID/FWD $430,400K).
Never select Key Position forwards. Well no sort of. Those of you with a copy of the Jock Reynolds magazine will know the findings of the Buffalo Jump and know that staying away from KPF at the top of they’re price curve is key. However as I stated in the mag Tex goes into 2015 at the bottom of his curve.
This makes him a safe pick, even if on paper he looks like a risky section. After North Melbourne, Tex will face Collingwood, Melbourne and the Doggies in his next three games. I backing him to go really big (130+) in at least 2 of those games. He will always be a stepping stone player for me and I don’t expect to have him after the byes. Perfect money making downgrade in round 11.
Shaun Higgins (DEF/FWD $400K).
How many Supercoaches thought Robbie Gray was burn man destined never to fulfil his potential about this time last year? Not too many predicted the year he was about to have, that’s one thing for sure. I don’t think Higgins will average close to Robbie’s 111 from last year but he only needs to average 90 to be a success and a season long keeper. I’m backing he averages over 90 this year and plays every game. Massive call but these are the calls you have to make if you want to get near the big prize.
New club with top 4 credentials, new lease of life, full preseason, a pinch hitting role in the midfield – he has ticked all the boxes he has needed to, to get a position in my team.
Robbie Gray (MID/FWD $596,900K).
Speaking of Robbie Gray, I reread this today and I just have to lock him in and throw away the key.
I’ll be back Robbie in for a massive 2015 and backing myself in on this selection.
Shane Mumford (RUC $613,700K).
It’s all about the points early with this selection. Brave move here but Mumford won’t be in my team come round 6. I’m taking the points, flicking Bellchambers into the Ruck and using his massive cash value to make an early upgrade in both the forward line and the midfield. This selection will make or break my season but the more I analysis it the more comfortable I feel about it. Two words for you “SHARK MOVE”
Early draw of Saints, Melbourne and Sydney. Averaged 151 over the first 3 rounds against the same opponents in 2014. An average of 130 in 2015 would still be a massive win.
What’s nagging at me:
The fact I had a freak out when there was nothing to worry me. All the answers were right in front of me and all I needed to do was back myself in. Hope this has helped you settle your nerves and allow you to back yourself in. I know I have put in the work this preseason and I have given every selection a detailed analysis. If my team fails it won’t be due to lack of effort and that alone will put me to sleep tonight with ease.
Over to you community – I take the good the bad and the ugly, so don’t hold back