While I am not against cricket, I do blame the frenzied bat and ball game for adding further angst to my preseason.
It has been too long and I have hypothesised, re-worked, theorised and generally driven Mother mad with my slave-like obsession to coming up with a starting squad that I can comfortably sleep on.
Mathemagic FC 2015
My Structure & Strategy – The Tortoise & the Hare
(Turning Defence into Offence)
Given the dearth of defensive rookies this year, I have structured my team around a deep and dependable defensive structure. I am forecasting that those running with more than one or two on-field defensive rookies will encounter difficulties early and either leak points or be forced into some premature trades, thus giving me an advantage.
I am also reluctant to start with too many of these defensive rookies as they are less likely to appreciate at the same rate as those found in the midfield and to a lesser extent, on the forward line. The argument against this is that the starting Premium defenders will not score as many points as the extra Premium midfielder that opposing squads might be afforded. To this I contest that while I may begin more slowly than other teams, I will be faster to a full premium squad while hopefully using trades – the SuperCoach tortoise and hare scenario.
While rookie selections are fluid at this stage, you will notice a few interesting selections.
Connor Blakely is one. I aim to use him in the event that Ablett does not go large enough to warrant a Captaincy selection via exploiting the VC loophole – this strategy is outlined in detail in the significant publication that is the Jock Reynolds Fantasy Footy Magazine. It is not too late to order yours!
While Ciaran Byrne may not be named and replaced prior to Round One, I wanted to place him in the forward line to demonstrate the beauty of the Higgins selection – his FWD/DEF eligibility cannot be underestimated.
The most obvious concern is a thin rookie forward line. If Oxley is named I plan on downgrading Harry Taylor and turning one of my forward rookies into another solid forward option – most probably Taylor Walker.
Aside from Higgins and Naitanui, whom I am confident in at least holding their value, I feel my riskiest selection is Harry Taylor. While it is very doubtful that he will end up in the top six scoring defenders this year, I am forecasting that he is slightly under-priced and will not cost me many points when compared to a more expensive option. I feel the difference in a top 6 and top 20 defender will only equate to perhaps 5 to 7 points per week – perhaps 120 points across the season. This will not be the case in the forward line.
Ablett is of course a highly debatable selection. Players who have undergone the same surgery with similar recover times have not had recurring issues. Why didn’t the greatest player in the competition play any NAB games? Perhaps it is because he is the greatest player in the competition. I propose that we will all need Ablett within our teams sooner rather than later. Those who do not start with Ablett will be making some awkward trade decisions at a stage before adequate cash has been generated, regardless of a reduction in value or not.
My only other concern at this stage is the fact that I currently have too many cheap rookie selections. If Krakouer, Lambert and/or Saad are not named or even vested, I may need to make a swift structural decision to generate a little more cash. I have planned for this and while it may be a controversial move, I may exchange Griffen for Dom Tyson.
I will be going into further detail regarding my squad during this week’s podcast. Feel free to ask questions below or send in a speak pipe query.